Tag: NE-Sen

Don Walton has the story:

Bob Kerrey stepped to the brink of a possible 2008 Senate bid Thursday.

Kerrey placed a conference call to New School University trustees in New York City to inform them he may be returning to Nebraska.

A decision on whether to return to his roots and attempt to once again represent Nebraska in the Senate is likely “within the next couple of weeks,” Kerrey said in a telephone interview.

This pretty much lines up with the timeline of Hagel's decision. By Labor Day, we're going to know what the field looks like.

On every issue outside of Iraq and Social Security, Kerrey's as progressive a Democrat as you will find in the state of Nebraska. He's popular, he's not afraid of a fight, and he knows how to win elections. 

You can talk about his “Liebermanesque” tendencies to bash Democrats, but he doesn't pull punches on the Republicans (I'm sure you've heard his take on the etymology of Rick Santorum's last name, or at least what Rudy Giuliani should have said on 9/11).

He was a huge supporter of Jim Webb in Virginia, and of course Scott Kleeb in Nebraska. And in four years as governor, and twelve years as Senator, he did everything he could for the state of Nebraska. I'd support a Kerrey for Senate campaign without reservation. We'll see in the next couple of weeks if that's a reality. 

 

Pat Flynn, a Republican from Schuyler, NE, has entered the U.S. Senate race.

So, who is he? Here's his website bio:

For the past 13 years, Pat has been a volunteer youth minister with high school teens. This has been one of his most rewarding challenges in his life because of the amount of time involved and the humbling experience of sharing his faith. The Schuyler youth group has been one of the most prolific in the state of Nebraska and has received numerous international, national, and local awards and recognition for its outstanding work.

 

Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat’s life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other’s lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives.

 

 I'm guessing this guy's hovering around Dave Nabity/David Kramer territory in terms of the votes he's going to get in the primary. Maybe even less. But it's been a while since we had any news in this race, so there it is.

A couple of weeks ago, Jon Bruning released his Q2 fundraising numbers, coming in at over $720,000 for the quarter, a very good number for a primary challenger.

Now, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who two weeks ago said that his campaign would be “well beyond” the amount raised by Bruning, has clocked in at $387,000, a large portion of that coming from a May fundraiser featuring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The conventional wisdom crystallizing on the ground here is that Hagel is blocking for Johanns – though it’s unclear if Johanns will get in the race, and the longer he waits, the stronger Bruning looks.

As we move closer to the fall, expect some movement one way or the other.

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

(Interesting. Kleeb is now actively raising money, and such funds can only be used in a campaign for federal office. What might he have in mind? Another crack at NE-03 (the sixth-most Republican district in the nation, according to its PVI)? Or perhaps he’s angling for a Senate bid should Fahey or Kerrey decline a race? Nebraska: ever the wild card. – promoted by James L.)

The surprise candidate of the 2006 cycle in Nebraska is exploring another run for office in 2008.

From ScottKleeb.com:

As each day passes, I am more and more appreciative of what we accomplished together on our campaign for Congress last year. I can say without a doubt that the campaign was the most rewarding, most energizing and most inspiring endeavor in which I have ever been involved. Since then, I remain excited about our future in Nebraska and am currently exploring several options to continue and expand our campaign.

I need your help in continuing to reject partisan politics and embrace positive change. Please click here to make a donation today.

From Columbus to Scottsbluff, from Valentine to McCook, we sparked a conversation across our district that rejected partisan politics and embraced the common belief among all Nebraskans that together we can create a better life for ourselves and for our children, that we can again believe in that common bond of faith in a democratic process, that we can again believe that our fates are connected and that together we make more of an impact than we can separately.

(h/t: New Nebraska Network)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

(The circus continues in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:

Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.

He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.

Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..

Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.

Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.

“That being the case, I will be running,” Raimondo said.

This is a significant development – a sign that Hagel’s being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel’s in the race, it’s becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it’s reflective of Nebraska Republicans’ attitude right now.

It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we’ll get Hagel’s final decision in the next two or three months – and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.

(While I’m reticent to call Bruning the “early favorite”, this has the potential to be one of the quirkiest Senate races of the cycle. – promoted by James L.)

As expected, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is ready to officially get in the race this week.

Omaha World-Herald:

It looks like Jon Bruning’s days of exploring a 2008 U.S. Senate bid are coming to an end.

Bruning, who has printed campaign posters touting “Bruning, United States Senate,” plans to hold a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol to talk about his political future.

All signs – including recent public comments from Bruning – indicate that the second-term attorney general will officially get into the race, setting the stage for a possible primary challenge against fellow Republican and incumbent Sen. Chuck Hagel.

Hagel, who has angered many rank-and-file party members with his Iraq war criticism, has not announced whether he will run for a third term. He plans to make his decision later this fall.

Bruning, however, has given strong indications that he will run since forming an exploratory committee earlier this spring.

He has hired several campaign workers and his campaign office in Lincoln has been busy, raising money and calling supporters.

Bruning has to be the early favorite to get the Republican nomination – perhaps even if Hagel decides to run. The longer Hagel waits, the more support he will drain. His March 12 press conference was a huge strategic blunder.

Meanwhile, the rumblings of a potential Bob Kerrey Senate bid are getting stronger. Outside of Iraq – where Kerrey managed to piss off quite a few Democrats in the last couple of weeks – Kerrey’s actually a very good Democrat for Nebraska. What’s more, in a race against Jon Bruning, I’m fairly certain that he would win quite handily.

June 23rd, Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Democrats’ annual Morrison-Exon dinner.

I’m guessing this is one of the reasons why every time Bob Kerrey’s name comes up in this race, David isn’t too happy. Apparently, the polling that Kerrey did looked pretty good, but I don’t think I’m in a minority here when I say that I wasn’t very pleased with Kerrey’s statements over the past week.

If you’re on Facebook, and want to see Mike Fahey run for Senate, join this group.

Bruning’s ready to announce – officially – in June that he will run for Senate. Of course, he might just “pull a Hagel” and announce that he’s going to announce something later, but the former option is far more likely at this point. Any further stalling by Bruning would suggest that his fundraising numbers aren’t where he wants them to be.

Meanwhile, a Nebraska group has started NoHagel.com, which is dedicated to defeating Hagel for the Republican nomination in 2008.

Other miscellaneous tidbits: I think we’ll see some movement in the congressional races before the fall. I’ve heard some rumors floated already, some that are not very desirable candidates, and I’ll let you know more if those become more than just rumors. But if we can get Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb to both give it another shot this time around, it’s going to be a good year…

The timeline most of us are looking at for Hagel is sometime before Labor Day (the same timeline Daub gave for his decision). If he decides against running, I think you’ll see the dominoes start to fall quickly. The sheer force of numbers of Republicans who just can’t stand Hagel may yet take him out of a run for reelection. And let’s not kid ourselves: Mike Fahey can raise a ton of money in a hurry.

(Cross-posted at MyDD.)

Back in April, in the face of massive public support for a clear timeline to end the war in Iraq, only two Republicans in the House and two in the Senate dared to buck the White House’s pressure tactics and vote for the Iraq Accountability Act. The four were Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD).

Coincidentally, all four are now facing potential primary challenges from the right.

In Nebraska, Sen. Hagel, the most noted opponent of Bush’s Iraq policy in his party, is facing a very real challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning (who even led Hagel in a recent primary poll):

“It’s pretty clear Nebraska voters understand Sen. Hagel is voting with the Democratic Party on the issue that they feel is most important at this time, which is the Iraq war, and that’s troubling to them”

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Sen. Smith is facing the current wrath and potential candidacy of anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore for his perceived lack of partisan loyalty:

“At the national level, Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of defeating Gordon Smith. After all he has done for liberals in Oregon, they still want to take him out, simply because he is a Republican. To them, a Republican in name only is still a Republican. Smith’s political vulnerability is no secret.”

Rep. Walter “Freedom Fries” Jones’ marked turn away from supporting Bush’s Iraq policy has been the “single issue” encouraging Joseph McLaughlin, an obscure country commissioner, to challenge the seven-term Congressman from a “safe seat” in North Carolina:

“A number of us have become very concerned about his drift to the left, espousing ideas that we don’t think reflect the views of the conservative base back in the district,” McLaughlin said. “Virtually every major vote on the war on terror, he has lined up with the liberals.”

And in Maryland, Rep. Gilchrest is facing a well-organized primary challenge from right-wing State Senator Andy Harris:

“People across the country desire to return to the Reagan values that brought the Republican Party to power – fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense, traditional values and an optimistic view of this country and its role as a world leader,” Harris said.

Primary challenges are wonderful things. In our two-party, big-money system with engineered super-safe districts for incumbents, it’s where the real small-d democracy gets done these days. The more choices for voters, the better. These four potential primaries, as well as the presidential primaries in the early states, will have the added benefit of providing an early look for the entire nation at the direction GOP activists want the Republican party to take on Iraq.

However, this pro-democracy opinion of primaries (especially those where Iraq is a major issue) was certainly not one shared by right-wing and “centrist” politicians, “civil” pro-war pundits, and other members of the “reasonable” traditional media establishment, all of whom happily took part in last summer’s Rove-inspired media orgy demonizing the year’s most significant primary challenge and grassroots movement as nothing but an attempted party “purge.” (Nevermind that the incumbent in question actually promised to quit the party himself before the primary, and then swiftly followed up on it after losing).

So, a question: How many of the following figures who were so quick to see Stalinism in Stamford last August will be denouncing pro-war Republicans for their attempted quadruple “purge” this cycle? Don’t hold your breath:

It’s no wonder that so much time is being given to the Democratic primary in Connecticut, and that so many voices are being heard. The ideological triumphalists proclaim it a great renewal in the Democratic Party, beginning with the glorious purge of Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

– William F. Buckley, August 12, 2006

It should be noted that both Cheney and Mehlman pointedly referred to the Lamont win as a “purge,” echoing the seminal anti-Lamont editorial by the Democratic Leadership Council from two months ago which used the term eight times. They were joined in that effort last week by virtually the entire conservative punditry establishment, with everyone from Cal Thomas (“Purge by Taliban Democrats” was his clever innovation) to American Conservative Union chief Patrick Keene (“The purge that began with the McGovernite seizure of the party . . . “) to Foundation for Defense of Democracies president Clifford May (“The August Purge of Lieberman,” a funny historical malapropism; May was trying to echo Soviet Russia, which had an August putsch, not a purge) to Fox’s John McIntyre to a whole host of others decrying Lamont’s supporters as rich, elitist, neo-commie liberals bent on softening us all up for a terrorist attack, apparently just for the pure, America-hating thrill of it.

– Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, August 15, 2006

Meanwhile, the New York Times’s David Brooks lashed out at the “liberal inquisition” unfolding in Connecticut, the type of phenomenon that could be understood “only [by] experts in moral manias and mob psychology.” ABC’s Cokie Roberts sang from the choir sheet this Sunday morning, announcing a Lamont win would mean “a disaster for the Democratic Party.”

Roberts’s ABC colleague Jake Tapper labeled Lieberman’s challenge as a “a party purge of a moderate Democrat”; a cliché repeated constantly among the talking heads. Los Angeles Times columnist Jonathan Chait ridiculed grassroots Lamont activists by suggesting “their technique of victory-via-purge is on display in Connecticut.” Martin Peretz, editor in chief of The New Republic, who in a recent radio interview refused to say whether he actually wanted Democrats to gain control of Congress in November, denounced the “thought-enforcers of the left” supporting Lamont, whom Peretz mocked as “Karl Rove’s dream come true.”

Earlier in the campaign, Washington Post columnist David Broder dismissed Connecticut’s progressives as “elitist insurgents.” Over at the Rothenberg Political Report, Beltway mainstay Stuart Rothenberg was in a tizzy that Lamont’s win would “only embolden the crazies in the [Democratic] party,” the “bomb-throwers.” (Like Broder, Rothenberg opted for terror terminology to describe the democratic process unfolding in Connecticut.)

– Eric Boehlert, The Nation, August 11, 2006

“And as I look at what happened yesterday, it strikes me that it’s a perhaps unfortunate and significant development from the standpoint of the Democratic Party, that what it says about the direction the party appears to be heading in when they, in effect, purge a man like Joe Lieberman, who was just six years ago their nominee for Vice President, is of concern, especially over the issue of Joe’s support with respect to national efforts in the global war on terror.”

– Vice President Cheney, August 9, 2006