Tag: NE-Sen

DraftKleeb for U.S. Senate

The other day I was sitting in my living room wearing my UNO College Democrats hoodie when I picked up the living section of the Omaha World Herald.  Let me share with you what I read:

“The death knell is tolling for the Nebraska Democratic Party, whose last, best hope — a guy from New York — chose Wednesday not to enter the race for U.S. Senate…

The two-party system in Nebraska, in effect, has died.  If you aspire to high office, or even low office, you had better register with the GOP like almost everyone else.”

Now that should upset every Democrat who lives in Nebraska, has lived in Nebraska, has stepped foot in Nebraska, hell, it should upset every Democrat ever!  I know it made me mad, so I framed it and hung it in my office.  Motivation!

Now what are we going to do about it?  I say we make a statement in Nebraska, we give the Omaha World Herald a new story to write about.  That story is fourth generation Nebraskan Scott Kleeb who is pondering a run for U.S. Senate.  His amazing campaign in Nebraska’s conservative third Congressional district is a testament to what Democrats can and should be doing here in the state.

The last week has been a roller-coaster.  Bob Kerrey demurs, the Facebook group explodes, the website launch (DraftKleeb.com), and all the local press has blown me away.  But we can not stop this movement yet, and we need your help.

If you haven’t done so please join the Facebook group (also invite all your friends) and sign the petition.  Post about us on your blog, or a national blog you have yet to see us on.  (also, email me at mike@draftkleeb.com if you do so I can make sure to participate!)

The next Draft Kleeb initiative will be a fundraising one.

Our goal is to raise $1,000 and have 100 donors in one week.  We have set up an ActBlue page.  All the money will go to Scott Kleeb’s next campaign.  Whether it be for Senate or the House.  We have to show Mr. Kleeb that we will have his back in this race because it will not be an easy one.

This seat is winnable. While untested, Johanns and Bruning (I hear Pat Flynn is running too…) are powerful figures in Nebraska politics.  But they can be brought down if we work hard enough.

That work has to start now and it has to start with us!

The entire ticket in the state of Nebraska depends on who our Senate nominee is.  Believe me when I tell you how amazing out lineup is this cycle.  It’s full of candidates that can make the kind of change we all want to see. On top of that, a successful showing in 2008 will help Nebraska Democrats take back the Governors Mansion in 2010, the Omaha City Council in 2009, and maybe even the State Senate later down the road.  That is truly imperative.

We can not meet our goal without you.  Please just donate five dollars, ten dollars, whatever you can spare.  I plan on putting some in as soon as I get paid this week.  Help us make a difference.  Help us motivate Nebraska Democrats so we can begin to turn the tide in our great state.

Help us…

The Omaha World-Herald takes stock of the potential Democratic candidates for the Nebraska Senate race — all two of them.  Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and ’06 3rd District nominee Scott Kleeb won’t shut the door on a run just yet:

The party has no candidates at this time and their best contender, Fahey, is less than enthusiastic about running a statewide race. The Omaha mayor said that he was not ruling it out but that he has lots of work to do in Omaha.

Fahey has taken an active and high-profile role in trying to keep the College World Series in Omaha. His work in that arena may make it easier for him to rebuff Democratic efforts to recruit him into the race. […]

Fahey said he will decide over the next 30 days whether to run.

“To call it an inconvenient time is an understatement,” he said.

Kleeb, who lost a congressional bid to U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith in western Nebraska last year, also may be a hard sell. […]

He said that he was disappointed in Kerrey’s decision and that he would wait to see what Fahey decided.

If Fahey stays out of the race, Kleeb said, he would consider running.

“It would have to be sooner than later. These campaigns these days take a long time,” said Kleeb, who has about $70,000 left in his congressional campaign committee.

It’s no doubt a daunting decision to go up against a formidable GOP foe in Mike Johanns.  Frankly, I’m surprised that Fahey is still thinking about it, even hesitantly.  However, if one of these two guys get in the ring, and if Bruning bloodies up Johanns, there’s still an outside chance that this race could become interesting.

(H/T: New Nebraska Network)

Surprise, surprise: Bob Kerrey, last seen burnishing his Cornhusker credentials by hobnobbing with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer and writing op-eds in the Daily News, is taking a pass on the Senate race.

With popular former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) in the race, and Kerrey’s months of indecisiveness clearing the field of other potential challengers, it’s not hard to imagine Democrats putting up only token opposition in Nebraska next year.

Eric Kleefeld over at TPM writes that “an inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle”.  I’m not convinced that 60 seats was ever really in reach in the first place, even with a hypothetical Kerrey candidacy.  Too many variables would have to break in just the right way in order for Democrats to even come close to such a broad sweep.  Perhaps, with Kerrey’s decision, a sense of normalcy will return to prognosticators who are openly hyping the magical 60 mark as some kind of benchmark for DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s success next year.

(And yeah, count me down as another guy who’s more than happy not to have to deal with the Liebermanesque statements of the week that a Bob Kerrey campaign would produce.)

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig’s guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska — but even there, the fat lady hasn’t yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond… the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey’s decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD’s Tim Johnson, AK’s Stevens, and NM’s Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

The first 4 states are listed after the jump. For the full rankings, go here, to CampaignDiaries.com.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the “Likely Takeover” category.  When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn’t help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner’s margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen’s sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party’s rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush’s popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today — what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race’s outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into “lean takeover” territory — given Kerrey’s popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha’s Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state’s overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state’s Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

Full Rankings are available here, with full detailed rankings of all 34 races!

Barely a week after announcing his candidacy, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub will exit the Republican primary to succeed retiring Senator Chuck Hagel, the Omaha World-Herald reports:

Daub, 66, was expected to announce today that the time is not right for his campaign, said four people close to Daub who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

His announcement comes on the heels of GOP powerhouse Mike Johanns’ expected entry into the race. Johanns, twice elected governor and then appointed U.S. agriculture secretary, shook up the GOP primary battle last week when he resigned his post in President Bush’s Cabinet.

Johanns has the backing of the Washington, D.C., GOP establishment and a proven ability to run a strong, grass-roots campaign in Nebraska. Unlike Daub, Johanns has won two statewide races. Daub, who also is a former congressman, lost two prior U.S. Senate bids.

Daub did not return telephone calls.

But he began to call friends and supporters Thursday afternoon to break the news that he was getting out. He told them it was an uphill battle when he began, and that it became much tougher with a Johanns candidacy.

Despite his resentment towards the NRSC for their efforts to clear the field for Johanns, Daub seems to know what’s coming: a recent poll released by the NRSC had Daub trailing Johanns and Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning by a 58%-16%-12% margin among GOP primary voters.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey is sending out more mixed signals, this time by saying that the prospect of a Senate candidacy “excites” him, but that his only concern is the toll it might take on his young son, Henry.  We can expect his decision “soon”.

(Big hat-tips to the New Nebraska Network)

According to the Lincoln Journal Star and the Omaha World-Herald, Agriculture Secretary and former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns will announce his entry into the Republican primary next week for the seat currently held by the departing Senator Chuck Hagel:

It looks like Republican Mike Johanns is ready to come home and run for the U.S. Senate.

Johanns, who is U.S. agriculture secretary, spent part of last week shopping for a home in Omaha, said Michael Kennedy, a Johanns supporter and GOP activist.

The former governor will have a “major announcement” next week, Kennedy said.

“I’m fairly confident Mike’s announcement will be positive for the citizens of Nebraska,” Kennedy said Tuesday night.

Johanns, a popular former Governor, would be the heavyweight in the GOP primary against state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Representative and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Pat Flynn.  He would also prove to be a formidable opponent to former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, who is expected to announce a decision of his own in the very near future.

Kerrey had to have been expecting a tough candidate like Johanns to run against, so I’m not sure if this development will affect his deliberations.  In any event, it looks like the Nebraska Senate race could prove to be a clash of two statewide titans.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

Popular former Governor Mike Johanns (R) has announced that he’s resigning from his position as Agriculture Secretary and returning to Nebraska to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel.

http://www.journalst…

“Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns has decided to resign from President Bush’s cabinet to return to Nebraska and enter the 2008 Senate race.

Johanns, the former two-term Republican governor, began placing phone calls to a number of friends and supporters in the state Tuesday night to inform them of his decision.

A formal announcement is expected in Nebraska next week after Johanns has submitted his resignation to the White House, according to a source close to Johanns.”

Johanns joins two other prominent GOPers in the state, former Omaha Mayor and former four-term Congressman Hal Daub, who got in the race last week, and Attorney General Jon Bruning, who has been actively campaigning since the spring. Tony Raimondo and Pat Flynn have also announced their intentions to run.

Johanns is widely seen as the strongest possible GOP nominee (some even count him as stronger than Chuck Hagel), and the best person to keep the seat in the Republican Party should former Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey decide to run. Johanns was the mayor of Lincoln, NE when he was elected Governor in 1998, then re-elected in 2002 with 69% of the vote.

In preperation for Johanns expected entry, Jon Bruning released a poll last week that showed himself only nine points down against Johanns in the GOP primary. The same poll, conducted on behalf of Jon Bruning, gave Johanns a fav/unfav of 60%-6%. Rumors in Washington though have Mike Johanns’ internal polling blowing Bruning out of the water.

Strategically speaking, Johanns position also puts prospective candidate Bob Kerrey in a bind. Kerrey has yet to announce his intentions, though he has told the board of his school that his retirement to run for Senate is a possibility. But given Mike Johanns’ popularity and strength in the red state, especially during a Presidential election year, Bob Kerrey may think twice before leaving his job in New York to run–and potentially lose–a Senate race in his home state.

Assuming Johanns wins the GOP nomination, which he is the odds-on favorite to do at this point, in a match-up against Bob Kerrey most pundits will rate the seat as Leans GOP or a toss-up. If Bob Kerrey decides not to run, the nominee would likely be either Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or NE-03 nominee Scott Kleeb; against either of these candidates, Mike Johanns would be the strong favorite to win.

From the Omaha World Herald:

Chuck Hagel will announce Monday that he is retiring from the U.S. Senate and will not run for president next year, people close to the Nebraska Republican said Friday.

Hagel plans to announce that “he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008,” said one person, who asked not to be named. […]

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel’s staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

Let the circus begin.  In the Republican corner, we have state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Tony Raimondo.  For the Democrats, we could have one of the following: former Sen. Bob Kerrey, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb.

Race Tracker Wiki: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. Maybe he’s going to anounce once more that he’s not going to announce. – promoted by James L.)

Don Walton confirms it:

Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he’ll not seek re-election next year.

Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.

In a prelude to Monday’s announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.

Hagel’s departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush’s Iraq war policies.

From the New Nebraska Network:

The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit.

I’ve devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska – for Nebraska – in 2008.

The evolution of this race – from the initial rumors of Hagel’s retirement, to Mike Fahey’s potential entry into the race, Hagel’s March “announcement,” and Bruning’s primary challenge, followed by Kerrey’s interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle.

In Don Walton’s article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out:

If it’s ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year’s premier Senate race.

So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post.

“A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle,” they wrote last week.

We wait in anticipation for Kerrey’s decision. More after the jump…

The right-wing blog Leavenworth Street reports a few rumors of note, including this one:

The word on the Street is that Mike Johanns has hired a campaign manager.

Which would be interesting to say the least, because there’s at least two things in that sentence that have Mike Johanns directly violating the Hatch Act. Maybe the rumormongers want to back off a bit before they get their preferred candidate into trouble with the law? Oh, wait, that’s right, the Justice Department doesn’t prosecute Republicans – especially members of the Bush administration.

Speaking of Republicans having total disregard for campaign law, there’s Jon Bruning, who placed an ad in the Omaha World-Herald on Thursday. Okay, you say, so what’s the problem? It was paid for by Jon Bruning for Attorney General. The NDP blog explains the rest:

This ad was financed with soft money – money collected without adhering to the rigorous standards required by the FEC in federal elections. State-level and lower candidates use only soft money for their campaigns.

The problem is that Mr. Bruning has announced – three times, no less – that he’s running for a federal office. And I think even a lawyer as practiced as Jon Bruning would be hard-pressed to convince Nebraskans that this ad is not intended to help his numbers in his bid for Senate.

Then, of course, there’s Pat Flynn, the fringe candidate who, in his campaign announcement, decided it was a good idea to get out in front of the story:

Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat’s life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other’s lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives.

Here’s guessing that Flynn’s candidacy is already “up in smoke.”