Tag: Michael Bloomberg

• NY-20 (pdf): The latest update from the state BoE this morning shows Scott Murphy’s lead down to 25, as the absentee count proceeds (and a few readjustments are made to recanvass numbers). We’re still waiting on any absentee numbers from Saratoga County (Tedisco’s base) and most from Washington and Warren Counties (Murphy’s base).

Also, there’s been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently “Thunderdome” is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to “hurry up” and announce whether or not he’s running for re-election in 2010. Davis’s sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he’s considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn’t want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn’t reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn’t going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven’t reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn’t gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he’s raised enough that retirement doesn’t seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big “get” in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation’s largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who’ll be hearing Norm Coleman’s whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former “Ten Commandments” judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it’s an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it’s possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he’s returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs’ GOP chairs. In a display of ‘post-partisanship’ at its finest, he’s reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won’t run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. “I don’t know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level,” she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th’s most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the ‘can’t make this stuff up’ department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for “rubber stamping” Nancy Pelosi’s “San Francisco-style budget” (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they’re singling out OH-18’s Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)

• NY-20: You’ll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though – and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly “infuriated” at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won’t run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that “it was never a serious proposition” in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.

• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he’s considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he’s been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner’s apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)

• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.

• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I’m hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I’m especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district’s strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn’t get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)

Crossposted at LibertyAvenuePolitics.com

After narrowly losing the Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor in 2005 to Fernando Ferrer, Congressman Anthony Weiner of Queens appeared to be the instant frontrunner for 2009. At times during his second term, Mayor Bloomberg’s numbers were so bad that it appeared Weiner would waltz into Gracie Mansion.

But Democrats are apparently fortune’s fool when it comes to New York City Mayoral Elections. Since the economic crisis, Bloomberg’s numbers have shot up and their frontrunner, Anthony Weiner, appears to be backing out of the race according to a letter to supporters;

Over the next months, the task of lifting our nation and our city out of the worst economic turmoil in 70 years will be – and I hope agree, should be – my top priority.

So you won’t see me holding campaign rallies. You won’t see me knocking on doors asking for votes.

There is a time for politics, but this is a time for problem solving. And boy do we have a lot of problems to solve in Washington today.

Weiner says he will make a final decision in late Spring, but it is unlikely, given that the election is eight months away and he is behind in the polls, that Weiner would enter the race so late.

A January Quinnipiac poll http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x130… showed that while Weiner was ahead of NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson in the Democratic Party, Weiner would start out well behind Bloomberg in a general election. Despite supporting a controversial bill that allowed him to run for a third term, Bloomberg lead Weiner 50%-35%. He also leads Thompson 50%-34%. Is Weiner willing to fight a year long battle he would an underdog in during a time when he could be a major player in a Democratic majority in Congress?

Weiner is also face with the reality that his district, the 9th district of New York, was the only one in the New York Metropolitan Area where President Obama actually lost ground from John Kerry and Al Gore. Where Kerry won the district 56%-44%, Obama beat McCain in the district 55%-44%. Although most district residents are Democrats and Obama ran away with the Queens portion of the district, a special election to fll the seat if Weiner vacates it may produce a nasty divisive Democratic split that could enable a Republican or conservative Democrat to win the seat. (The 9th district produced nasty Democratic primaries in the past, including the divisive battle between Weiner and now City Councilwoman Melinda Katz in 1998 after Charles Schumer vacated the seat to run for the Senate).

Good news for the Democrats is that with Weiner out, it’s likely they will avoid a divisive primary, something that has hurt the Democratic Party in every mayoral race sincethe infamous Ed Koch/David Dinkins battle in 1989. Bill Thompson becomes the instant frontunner with his only opponent, NYC Councilman Tony Avella of Queens, largely unknown and underfunded only six months out from the primary. A well run campaign by Thompson could unite the Democratic Party and help him win an election, but many Democrats appear to approve of Bloomberg, so even with a clear path through the primary, the race is probably uphill for Thompson.

Thompson may still face a competitive primary, if Avella runs a strong campaign to gather support from those who would have supported Weiner, or if another strong Democrat enters the race. Other Democrats looking into the race include Deputy Mayor Patricia Harris, Queens Borough President Helen Marshall, Schools Chancellor Joel Klein, and actor Alec Baldwin. Bloomberg also hasn’t yet received the full support of the city’s Republican party. John Catsimatidis, CEO of the Red Apple Group, has indicated he is running for the Republican nomination.  

The New York City mayoral race stands a good chance of being the marquee municipal matchup of 2009. (I’m nerd enough to say that with a straight face.) Quinnipiac takes an early look at two potential matchups (11/18-23, registered voters):

Anthony Weiner (D): 34

Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 50

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±2.5%)

William Thompson (D): 34

Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 49

Undecided: 14

Really, though, these questions essentially test Bloomberg against Generic D. Fifty-seven percent have no opinion of Weiner, who represents NY-09 in the House and came in second in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2005. For Thompson, the city’s two-term comptroller, that number is 70%. His Bloominess barely scrapes 50% against both guys.

Of course, there are so many potential wrinkles here. Either or both Thompson and Weiner could drop out. They could immolate each other in the primary (which is late, in September). Some Alan Gold-type Repuke could jump in and steal votes from Hizzoner.

More: Bloomstead could spend an insane sum – perhaps $200 million, though the sky’s the limit – which could drastically alter the landscape. Case in point: In the equivalent poll four years ago, Freddy Ferrer led Bloomington by 45-40 but got crushed on election day. Then again, Mayor Mike’s approvals were much lower then than now, thanks in part to his push for an unpopular football stadium on the West Side.

But that just shows you how much can change in a relatively short amount of time. Bloombo has staked his reptuation – and the raison d’etre for his obnoxious term-limits extension – on his ability to steer the city through the brewing financial crisis. If his leadership falters, his polling numbers are likely to follow. He might even pay a price straight-up for his nakedly self-interested gambit on term limits.

And finally, there still remains a chance that the term-limits move gets rejected in court, perhaps under the VRA. (Did you know that Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan are all subject to pre-clearance rules?) While I give this scenario low odds, it would completely up-end things and put the Dems in the driver’s seat.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

The Staten Island Advance:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg today endorsed City Councilman Michael McMahon in his bid to replace Rep Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.

“Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn need a strong voice in Congress to get results in transportation, health care and the economy,” Bloomberg said. “During the last seven years, Mike and I have worked together to deliver just those kind of results: Increasing ferry service, developing a workable solid waste plan after decades of stagnation, holding the line on government spending, and saving surpluses for tougher times like the ones we’re in now.

“I am proud to endorse Mike McMahon for Congress, and urge all of the voters of Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn to send him to Washington this November.”

Take it to the bank. SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

(H/T: NY-13 Blog)