Tag: Open Threads

Happy New Year, everyone! I can’t wait to see what 2008 has in store for us.

While we haven’t written anything about the primaries here at SSP, I’ve gotta say, the presidential horseraces on both sides have been fascinating, especially the Republicans and especially of late. I really have no clue how things will wind up.

So let’s open the floor to presidential primary talk – what do you think will happen? How will the early primaries go? Who will wind up being the nominees? And why?

UPDATE: I swear! I promise! The focus of this site will not change! This is just a one-off open thread. Down-ballot 4ever!

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Notable User Diaries

• The always-reliable Benawu is back with several updates on the Texas House race situation – here’s the most recent entry. The filing deadline is Jan. 2, and three districts appear to be without candidates.
• DGM surveys New Mexico’s wide open political scene.
• Nerds unite! NYPopulist is starting up a Fantasy Congress league. SSP Insider’s Tip Sheet says Louise Slaughter is your sleeper pick for the upcoming session.
• Progressive America bangs out a pair of diaries on Florida state legislative elections. The House is discussed here, and part one of the Senate begins here.

You might have noticed that the steady flow of posts here has turned into more of a slow drip in the last week.  Sorry about that.  A lot has happened lately on my side of things in the last couple of weeks: I ended my internship with TPM, I moved a few thousand miles (again), I managed to get a sweet new job, and I’ve been scrambling to finish my Christmas shopping.

So, I think now is as good a time as any to take a break.  We might make a few occasional updates if the mood strikes, but the Swing State Project is officially taking the rest of the year off.

Happy holidays, everyone!

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Notable User Diaries

Because we forgot to do this last week, we belatedly present the cream of the crop for the week of 12/15 – 12/21:

• Benawu takes stock of Ohio, where the Jan. 4th filing deadline looms. He finds that four GOP-held House seats lack confirmed Democratic challengers. Time’s running out!
• David Kowalski passes along the news that GOP Reps. Mary Bono (CA-45) and Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy (FL-14) (better known as Connie Mack IV) recently married. Will the strains of a maintaining a three-city lifestyle push either Republican into an early retirement? And what might this mean for Dem prospects? David has some thoughts.

Welcome to the Weekly Open Thread, Holiday Edition. Things are getting awfully quiet on the non-presidential horserace front, but I suspect that once the holidays are over and we’ve got our nominee figured out, things will heat up considerably.

In the meantime, for those of you with time off, I hope you all enjoy yourselves! Happy holidays!

Seen any good movies lately?

UPDATE: So I went and saw “I Am Legend” last night. Not bad, but could have gone in a much more interesting direction. Visually an impressive film. Amusingly, one major scene takes place right on the block where I work (you see my office building as Will Smith drives by) – but sadly, I never saw the movie being filmed.

But as some folks in comments discuss, the real treat is the Batman trailer. I did not get to see the alleged six-minute version (grr!), but even the brief preview I saw made it look unbelievably freakin’ awesome. I cannot wait.

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Notable User Diaries

• Plf515 offers a primer on polling. In another diary, plf takes a look at one particular formal model used to predict House election outcomes.
• They say you can’t tell the players without a scorecard. Fbihop has one for the fast-changing New Mexico political scene right here. Now, what did you want to tell the players?
• The worst thing, the very worst thing that Chrissy Shays has ever, ever seen in all his years in Congress? The absolute worst? Why, a bunch of ballplayers testifying about steroids. Tparty has the full story about the embarrassingly faint-hearted Republican from CT-04.

Just another week at the SSP office: special elections, independent expenditures, aborted candidacies, and even a retirement.

What’s on your plate?

As a side note, I’d like to direct your attention to what I believe is the oddest campaign announcement video of a serious pol in recent memory.  North Olmsted Mayor Thomas O’Grady announced his primary challenge of Dennis Kucinich this week in front of a large but mostly bored-looking audience of twelve year-olds.  The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s politics blog has the nicely edited footage.

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Notable User Diaries

Another good crop this week:

• Robert.Harding gives us an authoritative overview of the NY-26 race, where Iraq vet Jon Powers is facing a primary before he can go head-to-head with crumb-bum and former NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds.


• With Marty Chavez returning to his concrete bed after ending his Senate campaign, fbihop takes a look at the lay of the land in New Mexico.


• Progressive America is back with another pair of Florida diaries.  The first takes aim at crumb-bum Bill Young (FL-10) for his pork-loving ways, and the second highlights a great new ad featuring potential FL-25 candidate Joe Garcia taking aim at the GOP’s incessant demagoguery about Cuba.


• KTinTX gives us some lackluster numbers for Sen. John Cornyn.


• Stats whiz plf515 busts out the calculators and tallies up a long list of vulnerable House Republican incumbents, while also finding that Democrats are poised to make more gains in 2008.


• Benawu tallies the score and finds that 359 House races have Democratic candidates lined up so far.  A good pace!

This is Leland Lehrman, an alternative media publisher from Sante Fe.  Mr. Lehrman is the other candidate in New Mexico’s Democratic Senate primary, where he’s running a hard-charging campaign against progressive Rep. Tom Udall and Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez.

Lehrman’s campaign site lays out what is perhaps the boldest platform of any Senate candidate this year.  It truly runs the gamut: the impeachment of Bush and Cheney, dismantling the Department of Homeland Security, “9/11 Truth”, decommissioning all foreign U.S. military bases, the declaration of a jubilee year with the cancellation of all foreign and domestic consumer debts, and the abolishment of all school vaccinations.

There has been no word yet on whether his campaign will reward donors with these complimentary pillows (made by the finest organic hemp and cotton, of course).  We will keep a close eye on this.

Of course, crackpots don’t just run for the House and Senate; there are many currently running for the White House, as well.  (And no, we don’t mean these guys.)  Our favorite of the cycle, and on the shortlist for the SSP Presidential endorsement?  Lee L. Mercer, Jr., whose site boasts a stirring, 70-point explanation for his candidacy.  My favorite:

49. To Prove the United States Government killed my sex life, my wife sex life, my daughter-in -laws sex life both may sons and other of my family members sex life with Espionage Experimentation and Espionage Exploitation sex killing.

Somebody please get this man an Actblue page!

What are your favorite crackpot candidate websites?  Feel free to post your favorite links in the comments.

PS: Say what you will about these nutters, but at least they have the sense not to host their official websites on Geocities.

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Notable User Diaries

Quite a few good ones this week, including:

• OH-05: Despite the deep red hue of this district, Robin Weirauch is getting some help from Democratic institutions.  Ohio anon explains, and OhioDailyBlog has more.
• DemocraticLuntz tells us about the state of play in MD-01’s GOP primary, and how it just got even crazier.
• This cycle, Marty Chavez is easily SSP’s least-favorite Democratic candidate. DGM wonders if Marty’s dirty campaign tactics are fueled as much by pique as by strategy.
• plf515 gives us an interesting analysis of congressional districts, ethnicity, and presidential vote, complete with some eye-catching graphs.
• Interested in effects of money, incumbency, political climate, and party in recent House elections?  Dreaminonempty is back with a pair of fascinating diaries on the subject.  Check them out here and here.
• How badly is the GOP lagging in recruiting House candidates?  Benawu does the dirty work and finds that only 276 districts have confirmed Republican challengers — a far cry from the 354 districts with candidates who have stepped up for Team Blue.

Man that was some good turkey.

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Notable User Diaries

A number of good ones this week, including:

• DGM walks us through every conceivable general election matchup in NM-Sen – Pearce-Chavez, Wilson-Udall, and so on.
• Texas Dem takes a wry but thoughtful look at the criteria which distinguish serious candidates from the jokers.
• Progressive America recaps the recent push to draft Dem Joe Garcia into the race in FL-25 against Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.
• Finally, in a separate diary, PA also ranks the top ten Florida House contests and offers color commentary on each.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

A quieter week than last, but the nerds were out in full force (hey, I’m one, too!) in a couple of redistricting threads featured on SSP.  DavidNYC also launched our very cool sortable Congressional filing deadline/primary calendar chart in the “Resources” section.

Don’t forget: run-offs in Louisiana state House and Senate races are tomorrow.  Also, the race for state Attorney General will be decided.  We’ll do our best to give you the full rundown tomorrow.

I’d also like to take this opportunity to introduce a new feature here at Swing State.  Each week, we plan to highlight interesting user diaries that we feel are worth a look.  For our first installment, take a gander at these.

Notable User Diaries:

• Democraticavenger walks us through 80 GOP House districts that he thinks should be targeted next year.
• Benawu gives us his latest exhaustive update on the number of House races with announced Democratic candidates.

Also, while you’re at it, click here or go below the fold to cast your vote in our NM-Sen GOP primary prediction poll.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Never a dull moment, huh?  What a week it’s been: the ousting of the supreme crumb-bum Ernie Fletcher in Kentucky, chamber pick-ups in Virginia and Mississippi, a Republican “wunderkind” exposed as being out of his league and out of his mind in Illinois, a couple more SCHIP-hating Republicans retire from the House (making that 16 GOPers and counting), and last but not least: word that Rep. Tom Udall will run for Senate.

How did the week treat you?