Open Thread: Rank the ’08 Senate Races

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Back in July, we asked you to rank the top ten Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip control in 2008.  In his most recent ranking, the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza rated 2008’s Senate races as follows (previous rankings in parens):

1. Colorado (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Louisiana (3)
4. Virginia (6)
5. Oregon (7)
6. Maine (4)
7. Minnesota (5)
8. Nebraska (8)
9. South Dakota (9)
10. Alaska (-)

There’s been quite a bit of hot Senate action since we last rated the races, including but not limited to (in rough chronological order):

1. KY-Sen: State Attorney General Greg Stumbo formed an exploratory committee for a run against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
2. AK-Sen: More deterioration and headaches for Ted Stevens.
3. OR-Sen: Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley entered the race against Republican Gordon Smith.
4. OK-Sen: State Senator Andrew Rice entered the race against Republican Jim Inhofe.
5. AL-Sen: State Senator Vivian Figures entered the race against Republican Jeff Sessions.
6. LA-Sen: Raising all kinds of red flags of a potential challenge to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties.
7. ID-Sen: Larry Craig got caught cruising for a good time in a Minnesota airport men’s room.  His resignation announcement may have been a bit premature, however, as Craig has indicated that he’d like to fight the charges (which he plead guilty to) this month.  If successful, Craig appears likely to serve out the remainder of his Senate term, and then retire.
8. SD-Sen: Tim Johnson announced his return to the U.S. Senate, and of his plans to seek re-election, after months of recovery from a traumatic brain injury last December.
9. VA-Sen: Republican Sen. John Warner hung up his spurs, fueling speculation that Republican Rep. Tom Davis and former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner may announce their intentions to succeed him.

Quite a lot of action.  How will these developments affect your list?  Post your top ten in the comments.

UPDATE: Something has gone screwy with the formatting in the comments section.  We’re attempting to iron out the kinks.  Hang tight.

UPDATE 2: I think we’ve fixed the problem.  If you’re still having trouble reading the comments in the extended entry (specifically, if the comments are bleeding into the very far right of the screen and pushing the right-hand column several inches to the right), do a hard refresh (CTRL and F5 on most browsers) and let us know if you still have problems.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

Oh what a week! We had:

  • The resignation of the most thuggishly corrupt Attorney General in living memory.
  • The revelation that a sitting US Senator had been arrested and convicted for disorderly conduct in an airport men’s room.
  • The party-switching of a traitorous state official in Louisiana, who declared that Republican leadership in cooking was a prime reason for this act of supreme disloyalty.
  • The retirement announcement of an old senator from the Old Dominion, clearing the way for one of the hottest races of 2008.

Did I miss anything?

UPDATE: Yes, I did! Sen. Larry Craig will announce he is resigning tomorrow (effective Sept. 30), according to “GOP insiders.” Gov. Butch Otter will apparently appoint Lt. Gov. Jim Risch in Craig’s stead, which is too bad (I was hoping he’d tap one of Idaho’s House members). But who knows? There could still be a fascinating Republican primary next year regardless.

UPDATE 2: Now Otter’s people are denying that he’ll tap Risch. But he still strikes me as the favorite.

Favorite Republican Nutters

While the Republican Party is currently home to some of the nuttiest policies of recent decades, it has also been home to some of the nuttiest people.  Cranks, loons, shifty-eyed ramblers, hard luck gamblers, and certifiable basketcases alike have all found a welcome home as elected officials in the GOP.

As an example, you may remember Rep. Fred Heineman (NC-04), a one-term wonder from 1995-97, who professed that his congressional salary of $180,000 made him “lower middle class”:

Heineman made news in 1996 with his assertion that his $180,000 income made him lower-middle class. “When I see a first-class individual who makes $80,000 a year, he’s lower middle class,” Heineman said. “When I see someone who is making anywhere from $300,000 to $750,000 a year, that’s middle class. When I see anyone above that, that’s upper middle class.”  (Raleigh News & Observer, 10/21/95)

Clearly a man with a firm grip on reality.

Of course, another favorite Republican nutjob is Rep. Barbara Cubin (WY-AL), whose record is one of utter batshittery and embarrassment, including one notable evening where she barked to a startled audience of GOP donors: “I know what Victoria’s Secret is. She’s a slut.”  And who could forget her penchant for sharing penis-shaped cookies with her colleagues in the Wyoming legislature, or her infamous threat to slap her wheelchair-bound independent opponent after a debate last fall.

Who are some of your favorite Republican nutters?  To be clear, I’m not asking for necessarily the most conservative, or the most mean-spirited policy-wise.  I’m talking about loony quotes and behavior that reflect a serious personality flaw or detachment from everyday reality.  Citations of direct quotes or descriptions of activities, with links if possible, are preferred.  Post ’em in the comments.

The dumber the better, people.

Open Thread: Rank the ’08 House Races

Last month, we had a lively open thread discussion wherein SSP readers ranked the 2008 Senate races based on each seat’s likelihood of flipping party control.  For the hell of it, let’s try it again, only for House races.  Below is a list of 50 potentially competitive House seats, 30 of which are held by Republicans, and 20 held by Democrats.  Open seats are in italics, and the links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for more background.  Of these 50, create a list of the top 10, 20, 30, or even 50 (if you’re very dedicated) seats that are likeliest to change party hands next year.  I know that I’m missing some other potentially competitive races, so please don’t interpret this post as my view of 2008’s House “playing field”.  Some of these races are extremely unlikely to change hands, but I’d still like to see other takes.









RRRDD
AK-AL

AZ-01

AZ-03

CA-04

CA-26

CO-04

CT-04

FL-13

ID-01

IL-10
IL-14

IL-18

MI-07

MI-09

MO-06

MS-03

NC-08

NJ-07

NM-01

NV-03
NY-25

NY-26

NY-29

OH-01

OH-02

OH-14

OH-15

OH-16

WA-08

WV-02
AZ-05

AZ-08

CA-11

GA-08

GA-12

IA-03

IN-02

IN-08

IN-09

KS-02
MN-01

NH-01

NY-19

NY-20

OH-18

PA-04

PA-10

TX-22

TX-23

WI-08

I hope you have your crystal balls in hand.

Weekly Open Thread: Introducing Our New Contributing Editor

Fifteen months ago, DavidNYC extended a humbling offer to promote me from the comments section to the front page of the Swing State Project.  It’s been an absolute blast to write for and help steer this blog over the past year, which is why I’m very excited to announce that the Swing State Project team is adding a new contributing editor this weekend.


Please give a warm welcome to Trent Thompson, an energetic young Democrat from Alabama.  This spring, Trent made a major splash as the publisher of Sack Sessions, a blog dedicated to the defeat of Senator Jeff Sessions.  Trent was also instrumental in helping us build an exciting (if ultimately unsuccessful) effort to draft Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks into the Senate race this year.  He has since gone on to join Left in Alabama, a growing community blog for progressive action in his home state, as a front page poster.  I can’t say enough good things about Trent; he’s an excellent writer and he’ll offer a valuable perspective to SSP, especially on Southern races.  With Trent on board, we stand to be in even stronger shape in the near future.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Which Republican crumb-bum do you most want to see go down in flames in 2008?

Also, anyone at YearlyKos right now?  Wish I could've made it this year, but Swing State Project godfather and netroots hero DavidNYC is proudly waving the site's banner in Chicago.  Did anyone get a chance to catch one of his panels on local blogging today?

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Big news for the Swing State Project: we now have an AJAX-enabled comments section.  Now, like on DailyKos, you won't have to endure a full page refresh everytime you want to post a comment.  I hope that you find this feature as cool as I do.

In order to get the party started, you may need to do a hard refresh of the site for the feature to register in your browser.  On Firefox and Internet explorer, hold the Control key and press F5.  For other browser instructions, see this complete list.

Once you're good to go, feel free to take the new comment feature out for a test drive in this thread!

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Wouldn’t it be delicious if the GOP had to defend yet another Senate seat next year, should David Vitter resign? Oh, and, trivia question: There are already going to be two Senate elections in Wyoming in 2008, and there might be two in Louisiana. When was the last time that two states held two Senate contests in the same year?


UPDATE (James): If you’ve ever found yourself frustrated with HTML tagging while writing a diary, we’ve got good news for you.  The Swing State Project has enabled a WYSIWYG (“what you see is what you get“) diary editing function.  Of course, if you prefer to write out all your HTML tags, you can revert to the old “Auto Format” by selecting that option in the formatting prompt above your diary draft.

In other site news, we also hope to have DailyKos-style AJAX comments coming to the site in the near future. For a preview of what this will be like, check out our friends at the recently re-designed Blue Jersey.