Tag: Public Policy Polling

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters,

Alex Sink (D): 41 (36)

Rick Scott (R): 34 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 8 (13)

Undecided: 22 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP is out of the gate with the first poll of the Florida gubernatorial election now that billionaire creepazoid Rick Scott is the Republican nominee (although, note that the poll was conducted over the weekend). It seems that Rick Scott has gorged himself on cat fud, as his favorable rating is an abysmal 28-49 compared to Sink’s 35-23. Only 57% of Republicans are committing to Scott while Sink enjoys the support of 72% of Democrats. Independents, who detest Scott (giving him a 54% unfavorable rating), lean toward Sink by a 37-28 spread.

It doesn’t sound like Billy McCollum is all that keen on hopping aboard the Rick Scott bandwagon. His concession statement doesn’t even mention Scott by name, choosing instead to refer to the medicare fraudster as “a multi-millionaire with a questionable past” who put out “false and misleading advertising”. That sure doesn’t sound like the tone of a man who’s anywhere near ready to endorse his party’s nominee, does it? I’m sure McCollum would rather let Scott grease for a while (at least) instead.

Things are definitely looking up for Alex Sink, although she’ll be faced with the whirling blades of Rick Scott’s gazillions. She’s already up on the airwaves with her first post-primary ad, though, with a spot that highlights her reform priorities.

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 40 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (35)

Alex Snitker (L): 3 (4)

Undecided: 8 (15)

Jeff Greene (D): 13 (13)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 36 (38)

Alex Snitker (L): 4 (3)

Undecided: 10 (16)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP’s newest look at the Florida Senate race is a complete turnaround from one month ago. Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio aren’t that differently situated, in terms of their popularity: Crist’s approval is 42/44, while Rubio is at 40/37. However, a few things have changed that have caused their positions to dramatically flip since a month ago, though: the Republicans are even more tightly united around Rubio, taking moderate GOPers away from Crist. Also, the share of unaffiliateds (theoretically Crist’s strongest constituency, since he’s one of them now) has dropped since July, from 20% to only 14% of the sample.

It’s a sample that went for John McCain over Barack Obama 48-45 in 2008 (instead of the actual Obama 51-48), and the Republican part of the sample may be even more extra-conservative than usual (remember that PPP was the only pollster yesterday to give Rick Scott, who seems to be the “conservative” candidate in the Gov primary, a lead). While I agree with PPP (and pretty much everyone else) that Crist’s chances improve significantly with Jeff Greene as the Dem nominee rather than Kendrick Meek, it’s interesting to note that Meek hasn’t really increased his share in the general… the flip between Rubio and Crist seems based partly on composition differences between the two samples, and, even more notably, on undecideds moving to Rubio.

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Rick Scott (R): 47 (43)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (29)

Undecided: 13 (28)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 51 (28)

Jeff Greene (D): 27 (25)

Glenn Burkett (D): 5 (6)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (4)

Undecided: 13 (37)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

With the Sunshine State’s primaries tomorrow, three major pollsters have rolled out last-minute predictions today. For the Democratic Senate race, everyone’s in agreement, except for maybe the magnitude of the victory. However, for the Republican gubernatorial primary, there are some divergent results, and PPP seems to be the odd man out this time. Contrary to the general trend of this race lately (I don’t know if there’s ever been a clearer illustration of “peaking too early” than this graph of Pollster trendlines), they give Rick Scott a 7-point lead over Bill McCollum. It’s still an improvement for McCollum over their July numbers, where he trailed by 14.

PPP’s GOP sample gives McCollum favorables of 38/45, while Scott’s actually above water at 46/33. Did they manage to find a group of voters who somehow have avoided the last few months’ worth of attack ads about Scott’s gigantic Medicare fraud?

Quinnipiac (8/21-22, likely voters, 8/11-16 in parens):

Bill McCollum (R): 39 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 35 (35)

Undecided: 22 (19)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 39 (35)

Jeff Greene (D): 29 (28)

Maurice Ferre (D): 3 (6)

Undecided: 28 (29)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Quinnipiac finds a small lead for McCollum (smaller than they did a week earlier, showing that McCollum’s late surge seems to have maxed out); their pool of GOP voters gives 39/37 faves to McCollum and 31/40 to Scott. Interestingly, they also find a much smaller lead for Meek than did PPP, and freakishly high undecideds (28%) for an election that’s, y’know, tomorrow, indicating how little motivation the Dem primary seems to have generated.

Mason-Dixon for Miami Herald (pdf) (8/17-19, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Bill McCollum(R): 45 (34)

Rick Scott (R): 36 (30)

Mike McAlister (R): 4 (3)

Undecided: 15 (33)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 42 (40)

Jeff Greene (D): 30 (26)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (5)

Glenn Burkett (D): 1 (NA)

Undecided: 23 (28)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mason-Dixon’s numbers are a few days older than PPP’s and Quinnipiac’s; they’re pretty closely in line with Quinnipiac, although they see the biggest lead of all three for McCollum over Scott (and more momentum, compared with last week). They give McCollum 43/32 favorables, compared with 33/40 for Scott. Could this truly be the end of the line for shameless bald supervillain Scott? (The Lex Luthor comparisons have written themselves this cycle — but to me Scott’s always been the Bizarro World version of Peter Garrett, the very liberal, very earnest, very tall, very bald Australian Labor Environment Minister… who those of you who were listening to music in the 80s probably remember better as the singer for Midnight Oil.)

UPDATE: Was it worth it? Pre-primary campaign finance reports came out, and between Scott and McCollum, $70 million was spent on the GOP gubernatorial primary: $49.9 million from Scott, $21 million for McCollum (although the majority of the money spent on McCollum’s behalf was from allied outside groups). No worries: even after that spending, Scott still has a net worth of $218 million.

Public Policy Polling (8/14-16, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 35 (35)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (45)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

In the other half of the Pennsylvania sample that saw a big drop in Joe Sestak’s numbers against Pat Toomey because of PPP’s inevitable jump from a registered to likely voter model, the news isn’t quite as bad for Dan Onorato… but that’s mostly because he wasn’t doing very well to begin with. He loses only three points’ worth of ground, compared to Sestak’s nine. We’re getting to the point where we can’t blame Onorato’s failure to close within single digits on his unknownness, as this sample has about the same number of no-opinions for him (30/28 favorables) as it does for Corbett (33/23); it seems to have more to do with the anti-Dem nature of the year (which seems disproportionately strong in Pennsylvania), as well as the downdraft eminating from Ed Rendell (current approvals of 27/63).

One other point of serious concern for Pennsylvania Democrats: PPP did a generic House ballot test within the state, and it has a 48-39 advantage for the GOP. (That contrasts with a generic House ballot with a 46-40 Democratic advantage in Illinois, also from this week’s PPP sample.) With a lot of the state’s Democrats concentrated in just a few districts in Philly and Pittsburgh, that points to serious potential trouble for more than just the most vulnerable seats (the open seat in PA-07, Paul Kanjorski in PA-11) to some of the other ones too. While a statewide generic ballot isn’t of much more predictive value than a nationwide generic ballot, it certainly suggests that, say, Kathy Dahlkemper and Patrick Murphy need to be at the top of their games this cycle.

Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (30)

Bill Brady (R): 39 (34)

Rich Whitney (G): 11 (9)

Undecided: 20 (27)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Just brutal. Some numbers: Pat Quinn’s job approval rating is an off-the-rails 23-53, he’s in third place among independents (at 15% to 19% for Whitney and 40% for Brady), and can only muster up 60% of Democrats to support his campaign.

Bill Brady may be a crazy, conservative SOB, but this is the type of year where voters may be willing to give crazy a chance — or at least, enough of them seem prepared to not stand in crazy’s way while it barrels down on Mr. Unpopularity like a freight train. After all, it’s not like the DGA isn’t trying to define Brady in the minds of voters. We just aren’t seeing any positive polling results so far for all their efforts.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/14-15, likely voters, 3/27-28 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 38 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Beck (C): 5

Jonathan Dine (L): 3

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Robin Carnahan once had a small, persistent lead in this contest, but all that went up in depressingly sweet, sweet smoke back in January. (Granted, most of the polls since that time have been from the desk of Scott Rasmussen…)

PPP’s likely voter universe for Missouri has taken a turn for the red, with a sample that supported McCain over Obama by seven percent. With that in mind, Carnahan’s strategy seems based in part on making Blunt’s name poison among the anti-bailout crowd, releasing a new ad touting his role in shepherding the Wall Street bailout through the House in 2008. Maybe that’ll be good enough to shave off a few points from Blunt’s hide to the third-party candidates in November, but Carnahan will need to find a way to get listless Dems to the polls while she’s at it.

Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (31)

Mark Kirk (R): 35 (30)

LeAlan Jones (G): 9 (14)

Undecided: 19 (24)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

As you know, PPP has made the Great Schlep to a likely voter model from their earlier voter model, which was lightly-screened and tastefully seasoned with a patented formula of herbs and spices. (God, I’m hungry.) In terms of sample composition, the results have, predictably, been pretty ugly for Democrats. In this poll, for instance, the likely voter universe favored Obama over McCain by only 9% in the 2008 election — a big jump from the 19% Obama margin that PPP found in their poll from June, and from the actual election day margin of 26%.

However, unlike their Pennsylvania Senate poll, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is still holding onto a very slim lead. Some more color, from Tom:

Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can’t win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn’t doing that right now. He’s getting only 5%. Kirk’s getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it’s going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.

Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias’ favorability is 26/42 and Kirk’s is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.

Battle of the weak, indeed.

PPP (pdf) (8/14-16, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 36 (41)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (41)

Undecided: 20 (18)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP gave us some advance warning yesterday that this would be the time when they switched to a likely voter model (from their earlier hybrid model, which was lightly screened but more like a registered voter model), and that the switchover would be turbulent for some Dems. This race is the one they were primarily talking about: the switch drops Joe Sestak from a tie to a 9-point deficit against Pat Toomey.

One of the most eye-catching numbers here is that PPP finds a voter universe that went by 1 point for John McCain in 2008 (a marked contrast to Barack Obama’s 10-point victory), but they also point out that their last sample in June was also +1 for McCain. Instead, it’s one that has fewer Democrats in it (46 Dem/44 Republican), and one that’s more negatively disposed toward Sestak (28/38, compared with 36/33 for Toomey) and Obama (40/55, with an unusually high falloff in Obama voters who now disapprove of him — that number is usually about 7% nationally, but 15% here in this sample). The one bit of good news here for Dems is that the undecided voters lean Democratic (they went for Obama 52-36), and many of them are likely to gravitate toward Sestak once he’s on the air and garnering more attention. But for now, Sestak has a long way to go to catch back up.

AZ-Sen: Here’s an internal poll from a few days ago that we missed: Randy Parraz, running in the Dem primary, commissioned a one-day robopoll by a firm called Winning Connections. It found Rodney Glassman in the lead with 20, Parraz at 17, John Dougherty at 11, and Cathy Eden at 8. Forty-four percent are undecided. Glassman went up on the air with his first ad last week, touting his endorsement from the Arizona Republic and his military credentials. Parraz is also now on the air, with ads in both English and Spanish, talking about his fight against SB 1070 and the notorious Sherriff Joe Arpaio. NWOTSOTB for either campaign.

Meanwhile, John McCain has some boring new 60-second positive spot out – like he really needs to introduce himself to Arizona voters? As CQ says, “the tone and content of this spot send the message that McCain is a politician who doesn’t have to look over his shoulder to see if anybody’s gaining on him.” NWOTSOTB.

FL-Sen: Nancy Pelosi’s recorded a robocall for Kendrick Meek (not a surprise), and for Jeff Greene, it’s Star Jones to the rescue. Yeah, I’m scratching my head about that one, too.

KY-Sen: Countless law enforcement officials (police and prosecutors alike) are hammering Rand Paul for his claim that drugs are not “a real pressing issue” in Kentucky. Apparently, things in the real world are a little different than in retard libertarian fantasy land, where Paul is married to Ayn Rand and their son Alan Greenspan just received 500 shares of Taggart Transcontinental stock for his bar mitzvah. Anyhow, at least in part because of all this, the statewide Fraternal Order of Police just endorsed Conway, who promises to hit Rand hard.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid has a new ad out (NWOTSOTB) hitting Angle for her support of SSP – the bad kind of SSP, of course (Social Security privatization). Sad to see Reid acting like such a pathetic coward on the issue of the Cordoba House, though – not that I really expect better from him, though.

CO-Gov: Hahah! This is going to be a laugh riot. Republican gubernatorial nominee (weird to type out, as Colorado Pols notes) Dan Maes has to pick a… lol… running mate by tomorrow evening. This could produce the funniest ticket matchup since H. Ross Perot tapped Admiral Stockdale twenty years ago. Anyhow, Colorado Pols has some good suggestions for Maes, including one state senator who is opposed to telecommuting (I fucking wish I were kidding) – perfect, because Maes is freaked out by bicycle commuters.

FL-Gov: Freakazoid Lex Luthor clone Rick Scott has emerged from his Fortress of Squalitude with a new 30-second spot designed to heal divisions in this country and promote greater tolerance and understanding. Oh, please don’t tell me you believed that for a second, did you? Scott’s ad, cutely titled “Obama’s Mosque,” is a scum-drenched attempt to fearmonger his way to victory in the gubernatorial primary.

Meanwhile, Alex Sink is reportedly set to tap former prosecutor and state Sen. Rod Smith as her running mate. Smith himself unsuccessfully sought the Dem gube nod in 2006. Click the link for more background on him and how the pick went down.

MN-Gov: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a Dem-backed group, is hammering GOP nominee Tom Emmer for all the votes he’s missed in the state legislature. There’s some serious muscle behind this ad, too – it’s a half-million dollar buy for the next two weeks. (Props to the Star Tribune’s Baird Helgeson for reporting that info.)

AZ-05: I’m a huge Deadwood fan, and one of my favorite all-time lines is of course uttered by Al Swearengen, who says: “Announcing your plans is a good way to hear God laugh.” Cue this story:

Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is essentially declaring victory in the District 5 GOP primary, and said he is cutting his advertising budget for the final two weeks of the campaign because he is so confident in victory that he wants to save his money for the general election match-up with incumbent Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell. His main opponents, businessman Jim Ward and former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith, say the race is still up for grabs.

CO-04: Though outside groups have been up on the airwaves for a while, Rep. Betsy Markey is now out with her first ad of her own, an anti-TARP spot which calls bailouts “offensive.” NWOTSOTB.

GA-02: Republican Mike Keown is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies which purports to show Rep. Sanford Bishop up just 50-44.

NJ-03: This is the sort of grumpy whining you expect from newcomer pols who don’t understand that politics – still – ain’t beanbag. Still, it’s a little surprising to see former NFL players act like such weenies. Anyhow, John Runyan is moaning because he’s sure that Dem Rep. John Adler is responsible for indie teabagger Peter DeStefano’s candidacy. Runyan’s team couldn’t knock DeStefano off the ballot on account of his petitions, so now they are “considering a lawsuit alleging that those who signed may not have known that DeStefano was unaffiliated with a formal tea-party group.” Uh, is that even a cognizable legal argument? Good luck with that.

NY-14: I guess Reshma Saujani missed the day they taught “Not Fucking Up” at First-Time Candidate School. Saujani put out a statement decrying Carolyn Maloney’s supposed “silence” on the Cordoba House. Yeah, you saw this one coming: Maloney put out a statement in support of the project almost two weeks ago. Better luck next time!

NY-State Sen: Good news: A poll from a group called the New Roosevelt Initiative (taken by Red Horse Strategies) shows scumbag state senator Pedro Espada – you know, the guy who led the ill-fated coup last year to hand control back to the Republicans – tied with progressive activist Gustavo Rivera at 32% apiece in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately, as Albany Project writer Roatti notes, there’s a third candidate in the race, Daniel Padernacht, who may be unintentionally offering Espada a lifeline by splitting the anti-incumbent vote.

DCCC: We mentioned this fundraiser a little while back (see Amazing Daily Digest, Issue #88!), but now we have the goods: President Obama raised a cool million for the D-Trip at a star-studded Hollywood fundraiser, featuring the likes of Steven Spielberg and Barbara Streisand.

Polltopia: Blargh. PPP has switched to a full-bore likely voter model, and the results ain’t pretty for Team Blue. Go read Tom’s post for the full details.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/7-8, Delaware voters, no trend lines):

Chris Coons (D): 35

Mike Castle (R): 48

Undecided: 17

Chris Coons (D): 44

Christine O’Donnell (R): 37

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4%)

Continuing today’s stretch of deck-clearing posts, let’s prod the body bag of Daily Kos’ first horse race poll since cutting ties with the now-disgraced Research 2000.

The results are not awful for Chris Coons, who’s still unknown to 39% of the electorate — an indicative of both his room to grow and work that remains to be done (such as reversing the fact that Castle is picking up 30% of Democrats and 27% of liberals). It’s also worth noting that these numbers are pretty much right in line with Rasmussen’s latest.

John Carney (D): 48

Michele Rollins (R): 32

Undecided: 21

John Carney (D): 48

Glen Urquhart (R): 30

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Castle’s at-large House seat is still one of the few bright lights for Democrats this fall, despite the large amounts of coin Rollins and Urquhart, two Some Dude-level candidates in terms of name recognition, are dumping out of their piggy banks.

Transparency Bonus: Kudos to PPP for willingly sharing their raw data file (.CSV) — which is not something you usually see a pollster divulge. That raw data has already gone to use; just check out these cool visualizations made by Todd Stavish based on PPP’s data.