Tag: FL-Gov

• CO-Sen: Here’s an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal’s support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.

• FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist… among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.

• KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I’m as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.

• NC-Sen: It’s not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.

• PA-Sen: There’s an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don’t ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what’s likely to be a close primary. (“Fourth,” you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)

• AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled “Meg Whitman’s voting record not as bad as originally portrayed.” It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there’s still no indication that she actually voted during this period.

Meanwhile, Whitman’s primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California’s new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I’d initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he’d still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)

• FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she’s front and center again today, saying that she’s “leaning toward” running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband’s surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn’t actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas’s lobbying firm.)

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other’s statures that the state’s largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can’t see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey — from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.

• VA-Gov (pdf): There’s one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP‘s Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he’s projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.

• FL-20: Here’s an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a “mistake” to shoot at a target labeled “DWS” while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.

• MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won’t follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she’ll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)

• NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won’t challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.

• NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he’s getting a primary challenge… from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says “it’s time for a change.”

• OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who’s now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn’t too worried, as he’s won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.

• PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn’t violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren’t fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP’s desired recruit here, but Buchanan’s flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.

• PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O’Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.

• Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there’s another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he’s going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s vat-grown clone, George LeMieux, pulls off a sure-to-piss-off the base move with his very first act as a Senator: calling for Joe “The Heckler” Wilson to be censured. It’s almost as if Crist and his merry gang have moved beyond merely ignoring Marco Rubio to actively disrespecting him.

• FL-Gov: GOP state Sen. Paula Dockery, who seemed on course to make a Sarah Steelman-esque fade-out from the GOP’s gubernatorial primary, reiterated yesterday that she’s still seriously considering entering the race against state AG Bill McCollum.

• IL-14: The race for the GOP nomination to take on Democrat Bill Foster is starting to get awfully crowded. State Senator Randy Hultgren confirmed this weekend that he’ll be entering the race, pitting him against prodigal son Ethan Hastert, ex-DoD official Mark Vargas, former Aurora alderman Bill Cross, and Jeff “Some Dude” Danklefsen. State Sen. Chris Lauzen, who caused a lot of problems for Jim Oberweis in the primary last time around, says he’s undecided on another run, but has a lot of nice things to say about Hultgren.

• NV-Gov: Democrats hoping to win back Nevada’s executive branch received a major blow on Friday, as their strongest contender, state Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, has decided to pass on the race. Buckley’s exit leaves no obvious roadblock in place to prevent Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid (son of Harry), probably the weakest candidate the Dems could muster here, from securing the Democratic nomination. Rory’s candidacy could give the Nevada Democratic Party the headache of promoting a Reid-Reid ticket for 2010 — something that both father and son are unhappy with, but don’t seem to be able to stop. One wild card remains: Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D), who’s been considering running as an independent. He could probably paste Rory in a primary if he wanted to, though.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter’s highest-profile Democratic supporter, Barack Obama, will make a stop in Philly on Tuesday to host a fundraiser for Specter’s campaign, and Harry Reid is shuffling around the Senate schedule to accommodate the event.

• PA-06, PA-07: Now that former US Attorney Pat Meehan (R) is in the race for Joe Sestak’s open seat, it looks like he’ll have a clear primary. Businessman Steven Welch, who had previously been in the mix for PA-07, is now climbing up Jim Gerlach’s escape hatch in PA-06 to run in the GOP primary against state Rep. Curt Schroder. Schroder is keeping a cool head for now, but didn’t refrain from pointing out to local media that Welch is a “PA-07 resident”.

• TX-Gov: Former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle — most famous for securing the indictment of Tom DeLay — is now “leaning toward” a run for Governor of Texas. If Earle ultimately takes the plunge, he would join a curious collection of Democrats that includes ex-Ambassador Tom Schieffer, ’06 Ag Commissioner candidate Hank Gilbert and humorist Kinky Friedman.

• TX-17: Dem Rep. Chet Edwards, who’s miraculously held down this R+20 district for years, could face his highest-profile challenger since he beat back state Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth in 2004. GOP state Sen. Steve Ogden, who announced on Thursday that he won’t be seeking another term in local office, says that he isn’t ruling out a run against Edwards.

• VA-Gov: Um, whoops. Republican gube candidate Bob McDonnell unleashed a stray F-bomb in an interview with a local radio station on Friday: “I’m going to find other ways to be able to fund transportation. I’ve outlined 12 f–king funding mechanisms that are creative, that are entrepreneurial.”

• Polltopia: Where should PPP poll next: Arizona, California, Georgia, Missouri, or Ohio? You can take your pick.

Our inboxes over at SSP World Headquarters are just about filled to the tipping point with new polls that have landed on our desks over the past few days. Let’s go through ’em.

• CO-Gov (8/14-16): Public Policy Polling takes another look at the Colorado gubernatorial race, and finds Bill Ritter gasping for air. Ex-GOP Rep. Scott McInnis beats Ritter 46-38, and Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry forces a 40-40 split race. Altogether, not much has changed since April. In the GOP primary, McInnis leads Penry by a 36-15 margin.

• CO-Sen (8/14-16): PPP also took a glance at the Republican Senate primary, and found potential candidate Bob Beauprez leading Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier 41-23, with Weld Co. DA Ken Buck straggling along at 15%. Not tested was former state Sen. Tom Weins, who has indicated his interest in the race.

• FL-Gov (8/4-5): Public Opinion Strategies is on the loose for the first time in Florida, polling for the pro-Republican Florida Justice Reform Institute. Testing the gubernatorial race, POS says that Bill McCollum is ahead by 48-37 over Democrat Alex Sink. While most pollsters agree that McCollum has the edge, this is his friendliest margin by several points.

• GA-Gov (8/18): State Insurance Commish John Oxendine still has a healthy lead in Rasmussen’s latest Georgia poll over his rabid pack of GOP rivals, with 31% to 13% each for Rep. Nathan Deal and SoS Karen Handel. That’s only a very slight dip for Oxendine since last time, but perhaps new evidence of crum-bummery may stall any momentum for Deal.

In the Democratic primary, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes leads state AG Thurbert Baker by a whopping 42-9 margin; state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter is in third with 7%. Rasmussen has consistently shown Baker with a dramatically lower level of support than we’ve seen from other pollsters. (A Strategic Vision poll from a month ago had Barnes up over Baker by only 46-31.) Someone’s way off.

• IA-Gov (7/23-26): The Iowa First Foundation, a pro-GOP 527, paid an undisclosed pollster to test the re-election strength of Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. Culver leads every GOP challenger tested by fairly wide margins (though he’s still under 50%)… except for ex-Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who crushes Culver by 53-34. Republicans seem to feel pretty good about their chances of luring Branstad into the race.

• IL-Sen (“early August”): Supposedly, the Alexi Giannoulias campaign will release an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showing their boy leading Republican Mark Kirk by a margin “outside the margin of error of 3%”.

• MA-Gov (7/31-8/3): And speaking of incumbents with a lot to worry about, Gov. Deval Patrick looks to be facing a pretty treacherous path to re-election if you believe a recent survey by Opinion Dynamics (R). State Treasurer Tim Cahill, a Democrat-turned-independent, leads Patrick by 27-25, with former Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker, a Republican, close behind at 23%. With Christy Mihos as the GOP candidate, the race sits at 29% Cahill, 27% Patrick, and 21% for Mihos.

• NV-Gov (8/17-18): Mason-Dixon gins up a number of permutations for the Nevada gubernatorial race. First, the primaries: for the Democrats, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman leads Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley by 34-25, with Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid (son of Harry) lagging behind at a pitiful 13%. In a two-way race against Buckley, Reid trails by 43-22. Regardless of whether or not Goodman runs (and if he does, it seems more likely that he’ll do so as an independent than as a Democrat), this is good news for Democrats, as Reid is by far the weakest candidate of the batch — and I don’t think it’ll be beneficial for pappy for the Reid name to be so over-exposed in 2010.

Against Gibbons, all three Democrats are on top; Goodman romps by 56-29, Buckley by 50-34, and Reid by 47-35. However, the chances of Gibbons being re-nominated are pretty slim. Ex-state AG Brian Sandoval, who recently resigned from the federal bench and is expected to run in the GOP primary, has an early 33-17 lead over Gibbons. With Sandoval at the top of the ticket, Republican fortunes get a big boost; he leads Goodman by 45-38, Buckley by 44-36, and Reid by 49-32.

• NV-Sen (8/17-18): In Nevada’s Senate race, Mason-Dixon finds that Harry Reid should be sweating buckets. Though his best challenger, Rep. Dean Heller, has already ruled out a run (Mase-Dix says he would’ve beaten Reid by 50-40), his lesser-known GOP opponents also give him a pounding. Frequent loser Danny Tarkanian (son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian) beats Reid by 49-38, and NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden leads by 45-40, pretty much right in line with a pair of recent internal polls released by the camps of Lowden and Tarkanian. Not good.

Two polls released earlier today contain more comfortable news for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Let’s have a look at ’em.

Rasmussen Reports (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Other: 5

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

31% is the strongest showing yet for Rubio in any of the public polls released to date, but we’re still far from the point where Crist would have to breaking a sweat.

General election numbers:

Charlie Crist (R): 48

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Other: 10

Undecided: 13

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Kendrick Meek (D): 30

Other: 8

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3%)

The headline for Rasmussen’s piece says that Crist is beating potential Dem candidate Corrine Brown, too, but that head-to-head data is nowhere to be found. Either Rasmussen is holding out on us, or perhaps they’re making a reasonable assumption. As for the other poll…

Quinnipiac (8/12-17, registered voters, 6/2-7 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 55 (54)

Marco Rubio (R): 26 (23)

Undecided: 18 (21)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Quinnipiac also tested the Democratic Senate primary, but inexplicably included Congressman Ron Klein, who passed up the race months ago, in the mix. For what it’s worth, Meek leads the pack with 18%, followed by non-candidate Klein at 12%, and Brown with 9%.

And, finally, the Governor’s race:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (38)

Bill McCollum (R): 38 (34)

Undecided: 25 (25)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Sure, I’m not crazy about the trend, but I’ll take these numbers. For one, with Dems taking a bit of a national hit lately, the fact that McCollum hasn’t put more daylight between him and Sink is comforting. But more importantly, Sink has more room to grow: she has a 23-8 favorability rating, with 68% of voters counting themselves as not having heard enough to have an opinion on her. For McCollum, his net favorables are quite good (42-13), but that also means he’s more well-known (43% don’t enough enough about him). This one’s gonna be a real dogfight.

Quinnipiac didn’t release general election Senate numbers or Obama approvals in this release — the latter of which I’m quite interested in seeing. Rasmussen’s polling finds Obama with an ugly 42-57 approval rating in the state (with 47% strongly disapproving). I’d like to see how Quinnipiac’s approval testing stacks up, at least to see just how Republican-friendly Rassmussen’s sample is compared to other pollsters.

• CO-Sen: Did someone feed Bob Beauprez after midnight? Because more and more Republican Senate contenders seem to be hatching in Colorado lately. The newest potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who served under GOP Gov. Bill Owens in his second term, is “seriously considering” challenging newbie Democrat Michael Bennet, and will “make a decision in 30 days”.

• CT-04: Republicans may have been dealt a huge blow to their chances of knocking off frosh Democrat Jim Himes when state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided to stay put, but it looks like they’ve rebounded somewhat with the recruitment of state Sen. Dan Debicella. Debicella will be facing primary competition, though, as former state Sen. Bob Russo of Bridgeport also threw his hat into the ring yesterday. Russo doesn’t have a ton of elected experience under his belt, though; he won a special election in early 2008, but was swamped out of his Senate seat by the Obama tide last November after only 10 months in office. Russo seems to be striking a Shays-like tone in his early remarks, while Debicella sounds more like a meat-and-potatoes conservative.

• FL-Gov: The Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll yesterday showing Republican Bill McCollum leading Dem CFO Alex Sink by a 43-34 margin. No word on which outfit actually conducted the poll, but it wouldn’t be too far out of line with the most recent public polls we’ve seen out of the Sunshine state.

• KS-03: After dispatching highly-touted GOP state Sen. Nick Jordan last year without breaking much of a sweat (dude clearly picked the wrong cycle to run), Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore may face another legitimate opponent in 2010. Terry Goodman, a city councilor from Overland Park (a populous Kansas City suburb), says he’s “taking a look” at a congressional run.

• NE-02: It looks like GOP Rep. Lee Terry may want to spend less time casting lines for Obama-Terry voters and start keeping an eye on his right flank. Terry is facing a primary challenge from businessman and self-described Reagan Republican Matt Sakalosky, much to the discomfort of Douglas County Republicans. Sakalosky, angry at Lee Terry’s TARP vote last fall, has no elected experience, but insists that he’s well-versed for the job because he “watches television news and reads political biographies”. (Don’t laugh; the fact that he actually reads books probably puts him a peg above a few of the ass-scratching mouth-breathers filling out the ranks in the Boehner caucus.)

• NJ-Gov: If Jon Corzine is going to be re-elected, he won’t be doing so with the help of the Sierra Club. The environmental org endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett yesterday, himself a one-time environmental protection commissioner under former GOP governor Tom Kean.

• NV-Sen, NV-Lt. Gov: Nevada’s GOP Lt. Governor, Brian Krolicki, facing a felony indictment over the mishandling of state funds, has announced that he’ll seek re-election next year. Krolicki, as you may recall, formed an exploratory committee for a race against Harry Reid not long before he was slapped with the indictment. He must be hoping for a dynamite year for the GOP if he thinks he can pull a Don Young.

• NY-Gov: Are we preparing for life after David Paterson already? GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio is looking a few chess moves ahead by picking a fight with state AG Andrew Cuomo over his office not following through with an investigation into the hiring of state Pedro G. Espada (son of crumb-bum Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.) for a well-paid job with the state Senate Democrats. Cuomo, who raised the issue of the dubious hire before anyone else, ended the investigation after Pedro G. resigned last week.

• PA-06: It looks like newspaperman Doug “Captain” Pike has effectively sealed the Democratic nomination for the open seat race to replace Jim Gerlach; the 800 pound gorilla in the district, state Sen. Andy Dinniman, announced yesterday that he’s deciding to keep his powder dry, citing the uncertainties of redistricting as his key reason. ’08 Dem nominee Bob Roggio also pulled the plug on a do-over last Friday.

• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton denies that he has a mental problem.

• VA-05: Everyone expects freshly-minted Dem Rep. Tom Perriello to face a tough re-election campaign next year, but we’re still waiting to figure out who the GOP plans to nominate. A couple of new candidates stepped up to the plate this weekend: high school biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton and real estate investor Laurence Verga both say that they’ll join “FairTax advocate” Bradley S. Rees in the Republican primary. GOP bigwigs are likely holding out hope for a candidate with more obvious firepower, such as state Sen. Robert Hurt or Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, who says that he’s “still considering it very seriously”.

• WI-Gov, WI-01, WI-03: Democratic Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton is officially in the race to replace Jim Doyle, and congressman Ron Kind is also weighing the race heavily. Kind says that he will make a decision “in the weeks to come”. Open seat watchers will be aware that Kind is currently being challenged by Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke, whose track record of winning over Dem-leaning voters would put this D+3 seat at serious risk should it come open. And in case you were wondering, 1st District GOP Rep. Paul Ryan pre-empted any speculation that he may run by putting out a statement denying his interest.

• 2010: It’s pretty early, but some prognosticators are already making predictions for next year’s mid-terms:

“There’s offense and there’s defense. Right now, you’re going to be spending time on defense,” said Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Intensity matters a lot. Last time you [Democrats] had it, this time they [Republicans] have it,” Mr. Cook said, adding that he expects about a 20-seat loss in the 2010 mid-term elections.

Poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did not agree with Mr. Cook. He expects Democrats to do even worse.

Mr. Silver said Democrats often told him his Obama-friendly polls comforted them last fall. “I don’t think you should feel at all comforted about 2010,” he said to a standing-room-only crowd. He said he expects Democrats will lose from 20 to 50 House seats and up to six Senate seats next year.

What’s your take?

What’s with all the prominent Republicans unable to even make it through their first terms? Today Mel Martinez joins the club of lame-duck GOPers unwilling to be dead fish going with the flow, and instead is going to maverick his way on up and out of the Senate:

He made the announcement at a morning staff meeting, where he said he will not be returning to the Senate after the August recess.

Martinez announced he wasn’t seeking re-election to the Senate last December, but he had insisted that he would be serving out the remainder of his term, which expires in 2011.

Martinez is reportedly interested in the presidency of Florida St. University, which opened up in June. So he may already have lined that up, or maybe he’s just decided to jump out of the plane first and find out the color of his parachute on the way down. (Can life in the minority really be that bad?) Well, like the refrigerator magnet says, he doesn’t need to explain himself to his enemies.

So now the big question is: what does Charlie Crist do? Florida doesn’t have a fast special election law like Texas, so Crist has to appoint someone for the remaining year and a half of Martinez’s term. With Crist already running for the open seat in 2010, there’s certainly the possibility he could appoint himself. He’ll have to weigh, though, whether that would help or hurt him for 2010, whether any incumency advantage he’d gain would outweigh the perceived impropriety of appointing himself. If he doesn’t appoint himself, who’s a likely elder-statesperson placeholder he might appoint? He wouldn’t want to appoint anyone who might turn around and decide to stay in the Senate, and he wouldn’t want to appoint anyone too moderate either, as he doesn’t want to rile up an already hostile Republican base, seeing as how his most immediate problem in 2010 is getting past Marco Rubio’s primary challenge from the right. (Discussion underway in DTMB!‘s diary.)

UPDATE (James L.): The Associated Press confirms that Crist will not appoint himself to the big show. Smart move on his part — right now, he’s the likely GOP nominee and the likely Senator-elect come November 2010. A self-appointment would only create controversy.

LATER UPDATE: The Palm Beach Post fingers FSU Board of Trustees Chairman (and ex-state AG) Jim Smith as Crist’s likely choice for placeholder.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen

Mason-Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (6/24-26, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, 5/14-18 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 49

Michael Arth (D): 4

Undecided: 47

Bill McCollum (R): 53

Paula Dockery (R): 4

Undecided: 43

(MoE: ±6%)

Alex Sink (D): 35 (34)

Bill McCollum (R): 41 (40)

Undecided: 24 (26)

Alex Sink (D): 43

Paula Dockery (R): 18

Undecided: 39

(MoE: ±4%)

Ordinarily I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a random state legislator doing so poorly, but a Strategic Vision (R) poll showed vastly better numbers for state Sen. Paula Dockery. It’s worth noting that the Ron Sachs PDF calls her “Paula Dockey” at least once. If interviewers used the wrong name, that could partly explain the differing results. (Reminds me of the story SUSA founder Jay Leve tells of once being surveyed about “Bill Parcells” – turns out the interviewer meant NJ Rep. Bill Pascrell.) The Washington Independent, by the way, describes Michael Arth as an “artist, developer, [and] activist.”

M-D also tested various primaries for some downballot statewide races – AG (D & R), CFO (R), and Ag. Comm’r (R). All of those contests have, as you’d expect, very high undecideds and no candidate pulling higher than the teens, but the numbers may be of interest to serious Florida afficionados.

In other Florida news, the Club for Growth tested the waters for their newest pretty boy. Basswood Research (R) for the CFG (6/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Charlie Crist (R): 51

Marco Rubio (R): 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Nothing new here, but at least the CFG is considering the race on behalf of Ru-ru-rubio. According to Roll Call, their ED “said the club has not yet made any decision about who it would endorse and has no time frame for when that decision might come. He did acknowledge that the club generally gets involved in races earlier rather than later.” Earlier, please!

Rasmussen (6/22, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 34

Bill McCollum (R): 42

Other: 7

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite being something of a conservative douchebag, state AG Bill McCollum has a very good approval rating of 53-26 in this poll, while Sink is sitting on a 50-32 rating. So far, McCollum has been enjoying an early lead in every poll of the race since his entry early last month. Quinnipiac recently had McCollum up by 38-34 over Sink (UPDATE: actually, make that 38-34 for Sink), while Strategic Vision gave McCollum a two-point lead, and Mase-Dix had Sink behind by 6 points in May.

Sink’s been getting a bit dinged in the press in recent days over her personal use of a state-owned plane, but the matter was made murkier when McCollum was revealed to have made some questionable travel arrangements, too. I’m not convinced that this issue will gain a lot of traction.

And as for the Senate race…

Corrine Brown (D): 29

Charlie Crist (R): 50

Other: 8

Undecided: 13

Kendrick Meek (D): 28

Charlie Crist (R): 46

Other: 12

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The overall trend lines of this race remain pretty static for now.

• AR-Sen: The leader of Arkansas teabaggers’ movement, Tom Cox, has decided that he’ll run for the GOP nomination for Senate to run against Blanche Lincoln. Cox is the owner of Aloha Pontoon Boats, where he had a little trouble last year with a federal raid turned up 13 illegal immigrants working for him… which doesn’t sound like it’ll play well with his ideal base voters. In the primary, he’ll face off against an anti-semitic state senator and some Huckabee buddy who owns a food safety company.

• FL-Sen: The movement conservatives continue to square off against the establishment in the GOP Florida Senate primary. Jim DeMint, probably the most conservative senator by most metrics and with a sizable grass roots following, just endorsed Marco Rubio.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk still refuses to say what exactly he’s doing, but he promises that he’s raising money “for a big campaign.” (His last few House races have been big-money affairs, so who knows what that means?)

• KS-Sen: Dems seem to be moving closer to actually having a candidate in the Kansas Senate race: former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger, who formed an exploratory committee.

• KY-Sen: State Senate President David Williams had publicly contemplated getting into the GOP primary against Jim Bunning, even meeting with the NRSC, but he said yesterday that he won’t run. He refused to officially endorse anybody, but said he was most excited about philanthropist and former ambassador Cathy Bailey among the possible candidates.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has set a July 4th deadline for deciding whether or not to run in the Senate primary. Meanwhile, Kirsten Gillibrand picked up two endorsement from groups with a lot of on-the-ground firepower: New York State United Teachers and (cue the Phase 5 wingnut freakout) ACORN. Rep. Peter King, on the GOP side, set his own deadline, saying he’ll decide whether or not to run by Labor Day. Also today is word that Barack Obama had King in his sights as he cut a swath through Northeast Republicans by offering him a job — in his case, ambassador to Ireland, which King declined.

• PA-Sen: Looks like that Act of God never happened, because Rep. Joe Sestak is actively staffing up for a Senate primary challenge to Arlen Specter.

• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd having been in the hospital for nearly a month now and not planning an immediate return to the Senate, there have been some behind-the-scenes discussions of what happens if he can’t return to office. West Virginia state Democratic party chair Nick Casey is seen as the consensus choice to serve as placeholder until the 2010 election, if need be.

• AZ-Gov: This can’t be helping Jan Brewer (the Republican SoS who ascended to the governor’s mansion to replace Janet Napolitano) as she considers whether or not to run for a full term: she’s in a standoff with her Republican-controlled legislature over the budget, almost single-handedly leaving the state on track to a government shutdown.

• FL-Gov: David Hill, a top GOP pollster in Florida, is leery about the chances for AG Bill McCollum (who’s already lost statewide twice, and now is trying to transparently reboot himself as a Charlie Crist-style moderate) in the gubernatorial election. He says he’s been actively encouraging state Senator Paula Dockery to follow through on jumping into the primary.

• KS-Gov: Sen. Sam Brownback got some good news: SoS Ron Thornburgh decided to get out of the GOP primary, leaving Brownback a clear path. (Not that Thornburgh was going to pose much of a threat, which is why he got out.) And finally a Democratic state Senator, Chris Steineger, seems to be getting into the race for Team Blue — although he sounds like a bit of a loose cannon, having pissed off most of the state party establishment at various points.

• MI-Gov: George Perles, the 75-year-old former football coach at Michigan State and currently an MSU trustee (which is a statewide elected position) announced that he’s running for the Democratic nomination. He joins Lt. Gov. John Cherry in the field, who seems to have most of the establishment backing so far.

• MN-Gov: Contrary to earlier reports, Rep. Michele Bachmann hasn’t quite ruled out a bid for Governor in 2010, what with Tim Pawlenty stepping down. She expresses her ambivalence with some nice Harlequin romance novel phrasing: “If my heart moved in the other direction and I had the tug, I’d do it. I wouldn’t be afraid to run for office. I just don’t feel the tug.”

• NV-Gov: Another GOPer is sniffing out the governor’s race (kind of a no-brainer, given the world of shit Jim Gibbons is in): Reno mayor Bob Cashell, who was last seen endorsing Harry Reid a few weeks ago. Of course, there’s the risk that if too many credible GOP challengers get in, Gibbons has a better shot at surviving the primary via a badly split vote… although facing a wounded Gibbons in the general would probably be the best scenario for the Dems.

• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll of the Florida gubernatorial race, and it gives Democrat Alex Sink a very early 38-34 edge against Republican AG Bill McCollum. Although this is the first poll where we’ve seen Sink leading, we have plenty of mileage to burn through before these polls begin to get interesting. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: Carolyn Maloney released an internal poll showing her with a not-worth-writing-home-about 34-32 “lead” over incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. Surprise, surprise: After some message-testing business, Maloney shoots up to 49-25. The poll presentation has some pretty harsh words for Gillibrand… is Maloney really drinking her own kool-aid? (D)

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s Secretary of State, sounds almost enthused at the idea of running against Richard Burr in a recent interview with the Dunn Daily Record. Saying it’s a challenge that she “thinks I’m up to”, Marshall says that she’ll give the race more consideration once the current legislative session ends. (J)

• PA-Sen: There have been toplines for a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll (taken for a labor 527) of the Pennsylvania Senate race floating around the interwebs for a few weeks, but Open Left snagged a copy of the whole memo. Highlights include Arlen Specter over Joe Sestak in the primary by a 55-34 margin. Specter leads a Generic Dem 50-37, and leads Sestak 50-42 after message-testing mumbo-jumbo, giving Sestak some room to grow. The poll also notes that almost one half of the Dem electorate is union households, making Specter’s vote on EFCA that much more paramount.

• FL-24: First-term Democratic Rep. Suzanne Kosmas has her first GOP challenger: Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel. A bare bones website hypes Diebel’s “proven conservative leadership”. (J)

• NY-23: New York Independence Party Chair Frank MacKay says that his party will endorse Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine if he chooses to run for the open seat of outgoing GOP Rep. John McHugh. (J)

• SC-01: In an email to her supporters, ’08 candidate Linda Ketner says that she won’t seek a rematch against GOP crumb-bum Henry Brown next year. She informed two potential Brown challengers of her decision: Leon Stavrinakis, a state Representative from Charleston, and Robert Burton, a former member of the Board of Commissioners of the SC State Housing Finance and Development Authority. (J)

• NRCC/NRSC: A big fundraising haul for last night’s joint fundraising dinner for the NRSC and NRCC, headlined by Newt Gingrich: $14.45 million, split between the two committees. As Politico observes, though, it was a flop from a messaging standpoint, as anything substantive that might have been said was overshadowed by the will-she-won’t-she drama concerning Sarah Palin’s appearance (she made a cameo after all, but didn’t speak). UPDATE (David): It’s worth noting that this was actually the smallest take in five years for this dinner.

• NYC-Mayor: Bloombo’s re-elects stand at just 40-55 in a new New York Times/NY1/Cornell University poll. In June of 2005, he was at 48-44. However, his putative opponent, Comptroller Bill Thompson, clocks in with a microscopic 13-2 approval rating. Bloombleberry’s been plastering the airwaves with ads for months, but it just doesn’t feel like Thompson has really engaged this race at all. (D)

• AL-St. Senate: The Virginia primary is tonight’s main course, but there’s an tasty side dish in Alabama: a special election to fill the state Senate vacancy left behind by now-Rep. Parker Griffith in the 7th District, centered on Huntsville. Democratic state Rep. Laura Hall is considered to have a bit of an edge over GOP businessman Paul Sanford.

• ME-Legislature: Here’s something you don’t see everyday: the Maine House of Representatives endorsed abolishing itself (and the state Senate), and joining Nebraska in the land of the unicameral legislature, mostly in order to save money on overhead. When it comes up for a final vote, it’ll need to pass by a 2/3s measure, though, and there weren’t enough votes in the House for that, so this may not actually ever happen.

• NJ-Assembly: Newsroom New Jersey takes a quick look at where the hot races for control of the New Jersey Assembly will be in Nov. 2009. The greatest volatility seems to be on the Jersey Shore, as both parties are looking there (in the 1st and 2nd districts) for the likeliest flips. Dems currently hold the Assembly by a sizable 48-32 edge.

• Redistricting: OMGz! Did you know that there are sites on the series of tubes where new technology lets average political junkies get involved in the redistricting process? Rep. Lynn Westmoreland just found out about this worrisome new trend.