Tag: FL-Gov

In Florida, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate and current state CFO Alex Sink finds herself with a 38-34 lead in a new poll by Quinnipiac University (margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points). . This is the first poll to show Sink in the lead and in the analysis offered by Quinnipiac gives some basic reasoning as to why Sink is in the lead (hint she's a Democrat!):

“One reason may be that in the survey he is identified as a Republican and she a Democrat,” Brown added. “In Florida, as in much of the nation these days, the GOP label is not necessarily a plus, even though 50 percent of voters say the fact that Florida's governor has been Republican since 1998 has been good for the state, compared to 37 percent who say GOP rule has been bad for Florida.”

Sink indeed gets most of her strength due to a higher percentage of Democrats in Florida versus Republicans. Sink leads 72 – 11 percent among Democrats while McCollum is ahead 72 – 5 percent among Republicans and 32 – 27 percent among independent voters.

While a ton of voters are still undecided (25 percent), it is fortunate to see Sink with the early lead here as her candidancy points to great opportunity for Democrats to take back the Governor's manison, which has been held by Republicans since 1998. 

 

Strategic Vision (R) (5/29-31, likely voters, 2/6-8 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 29 (26)

Charlie Crist (R): 59 (60)

Kendrick Meek (D): 30 (24)

Marco Rubio (R): 31 (26)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Charlie Crist (R): 59 (54)

Marco Rubio (R): 22 (4)

Other: NA (33)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Alex Sink (D): 39

Bill McCollum (R): 41

Alex Sink (D): 40

Paula Dockery (R): 34

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Bill McCollum (R): 44

Paula Dockery (R): 28

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Republican polling firm Strategic Vision takes a look at both the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida. They also polled the Senate race in February, including a Crist/Meek matchup back when the notion of Charlie Crist actually switching over to Senate seemed rather fanciful. However, the numbers haven’t really budged much since then, even though the field has started to solidify.

Rep. Kendrick Meek has made up a few points on Crist, but is still trailing Crist by 30, looking pretty insurmountable at this point. On the other hand, Meek vs. former state House speaker Marco Rubio is a dead heat (although the undecideds on that race are still tremendously high). In the GOP primary, Rubio has shot up, but not at Crist’s expense. Instead, Rubio seems to have cornered most of the former “Other” vote, as the previous poll included Reps. Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack, and movement conservative voters seem to have dutifully gravitated to Rubio now that he’s the right-wing’s horse in the race. Rubio can expect to further improve as he gets better-known, but with Crist near 60%, that’s an incredibly steep hill to climb.

There aren’t any trendlines on the governor’s race (which only recently became clear it would be CFO Alex Sink vs. AG Bill McCollum), but the 2-point lead for McCollum is very consistent with previous Sink/McCollum matchups, going all the way back to when it was assumed these two would be squaring off for the Senate instead. Strategic Vision also polls state Senator Paula Dockery, who’s been making some noise this week about running in the primary that the state GOP thought they’d already cleared. Dockery doesn’t turn out to be much of a factor right now, losing badly in the primary against McCollum and trailing Sink by 6 in the general, although her position might improve as her name recognition improves outside the I-4 corridor.

• OH-Sen: Rob Portman’s great week continues: he just found himself admitting in an interview that Republicans have no position on health care, and that he reached this conclusion only by talking to GOP Senate leadership about that. However, he says, “There’s a task force, and I applaud them for that.”

• FL-Gov: Lakeland-area State Senator Paula Dockery, whose name has occasionally been bandied about for the GOP nomination for the open seat in FL-12, may be setting her sights higher: all the way to Governor. This would complicate things for the state party leadership, which got Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson to clear the path for AG Bill McCollum… but might secretly relieve some others in the Florida GOP, worried that McCollum has that warmed-over two-time-loser aroma. (I wonder, though, if she might really be angling for the still-vacant Lt. Gov. slot, as current Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp is heading over to the AG’s race, and Bronson said ‘no thanks’ to the idea. The GOP might need her there to avoid having an all-white-guy slate, what with state Senate President Jeff Atwater running for CFO and Howdy Doody Rep. Adam Putnam running for Ag Comm.)

• AZ-Gov: Another state legislator contemplating out loud about a Governor’s race is state Rep. David Bradley, who may resign this summer in order to explore the race. He has two disadvantages, though: his base is not Phoenix but the much-smaller Tucson, and he isn’t known statewide like other likely Dem candidates AG Terry Goddard and developer/former state party boss/2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson.

• NY-Gov: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand made some cryptic comments yesterday that have everyone scratching their heads: she believes there won’t be a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor’s race. What she didn’t say is who she thinks will stand down, David Paterson or Andrew Cuomo?

• MD-01: The NRCC is up with another ad blitz, this time with freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil the prime target. The TV ad hits Kratovil for his ‘no’ vote against an investigation into Nancy Pelosi over whether she or the CIA is lying (not an issue I could ever see the public comprehending, let alone getting revved up about, but maybe that’s just me). The issue also merits radio spots in 6 more districts (those of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Suzanne Kosmas, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Vic Snyder, and Harry Teague), and robocalls in 10 more (John Boccieri, Bobby Bright, John Hall, Steny Hoyer, Steve Kagen, Ann Kirkpatrick, Larry Kissell, Harry Mitchell, Walt Minnick, and Mark Schauer).

• CA-10: Running Some Guy is better than running No Guy, and the GOP has at least found Some Guy to run in the yet-to-be-scheduled special election to replace Ellen Tauscher: attorney David Harmer. Harmer once ran for Congress in UT-02 in 1996, and his father was California Lt. Gov under Ronald Reagan.

• NY-AG: The New York Times profiles half a dozen prominent Democrats who are jockeying to take over the Attorney General’s job if Andrew Cuomo follows through on the Governor’s race. Nassau County Exec Tom Suozzi is the best known, but two members of Paterson’s cabinet — insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo and criminal justice official Denise O’Donnell — are also looking. The article also cites Assemblyman Michael Gianaris, Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, and state Senator Eric Schneiderman.

• TX-House: Democrats in the state House in Texas used parliamentary procedures to run out the clock on a Republican voter suppression bill. The voter ID bill would have disenfranchised thousands. The bill was so important to Republicans that they wouldn’t let any other bills jump ahead of it in the queue, though, creating a standoff that torpedoed hundreds of other pieces of legislation (including the override of Gov. Rick Perry’s decision to turn down $555 million in federal stimulus funds).

• LA-Sen: David Vitter may get a serious primary challenger after all (Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins and ex-Rep. John Cooksey have declined, and SoS Jay Dardenne has been laying low). It’s someone we haven’t seen in a while, though: former state Elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who let her interest be known last week. Terrell’s last appearance in the spotlight was the 2002 Senate race, where she lost narrowly to Mary Landrieu. Terrell is the only Republican woman to have ever held office in Louisiana.

• NY-Sen-B: Like a giant game of Whack-a-mole, Kirsten Gillibrand jammed a couple potential primary challengers back into their holes last week, but now a new one popped up: Rep. Jose Serrano. The Bronx-based Serrano might be able to make a lot of hay out of the immigration issue, but he may not have the cash to make a race of it (although as an Appropriations cardinal, he’s well-connected). Meanwhile, Gillibrand nailed down endorsements from three other Reps. — John Hall, Mike Arcuri, and Scott Murphy — as well as Nassau County Dem party chair Jay Jacobs (important because he has a lot of sway over Rep. Carolyn McCarthy).

• PA-Sen: Roll Call tried to pin down the Democratic House members from Pennsylvania on whether or not they’d endorse Arlen Specter in a potential Democratic primary with Rep. Joe Sestak. Interestingly, PA’s most liberal Dem, Chaka Fattah, was probably the most enthusiastic and unconditional endorser of Specter, while its most conservative Dem, Jason Altmire, was most reluctant to offer an endorsement one way or the other, although more out of admiration for Sestak than on ideological grounds. Tim Holden also endorsed Specter and Bob Brady came as close as possible to it, while Patrick Murphy took a “wait and see” attitude and the others simply punted the question.

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren (having recently shot himself in the foot by calling Charles Schumer “that Jew”) is now vacillating and may not run in the GOP Senate primary after all, despite having announced his candidacy.

• IL-Sen: Here’s some confirmation on what we speculated last week: Rep. Mark Kirk isn’t lost in space; he’s just deferring any decisions on the Senate race because he’s waiting to see what AG Lisa Madigan does. He reportedly won’t run for Senate if Madigan does.

• FL-Gov: Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson will announce today that he won’t run for the open governor’s seat, leaving an unimpeded path to the GOP nomination for AG Bill McCollum. Bronson is term-limited out of his job in 2010 and looking to move up, but couldn’t buck the pressure from state chair Jim Greer — I mean, the guy doesn’t have a Death Wish.

• CO-Gov: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis officially filed yesterday to enter the Colorado governor’s race, amidst sniping that he started soliciting funds before filing his campaign paperwork. State Senate minority leader Josh Penry also launched into an oblique attack on McInnis, suggesting he might be interested in a primary battle.

• CA-Gov: Dianne Feinstein, occasionally rumored to be interested in what has to be the least desirable job in America (California governor), has said that she “might” run for governor next year, depending on her assessment of the other candidates’ plans for dealing with California’s seemingly perpetual budget crisis. Polls that have included Feinstein have shown her dominating the race if she got in.

• IL-13: 71-year-old Rep. Judy Biggert just confirmed that she’ll be running for re-election in 2010, despite a return engagement with Scott Harper, who held her to 54%, and the district’s shift to only R+1. (Of course, her inclusion in the first round of 10 in the NRCC’s Patriots program Tuesday showed her hand already.)

• AL-02: Republicans have at least one candidate lined up to go against Rep. Bobby Bright as he seeks his first re-election in this R+16 district: 32-year-old Montgomery city councilor and attorney Martha Roby. GOP State Rep. Jay Love, who narrowly lost to Bright last time, may also try again.

• MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2008, may have to face off against both of the same challengers again in 2010: state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters. Former interim mayor Ken Cockrel also is mentioned as interested. Kilpatrick may be less vulnerable in 2010, though, as the brouhaha surrounding her son (former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) recedes in the distance.

• Maps: Here’s another interesting map for the geography nerds out there. It’s a map of which party controls all the state House seats throughout the South. (It’s a lot bluer than you might initially think.)

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).

Senate primary matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 26

Dan Gelber (D): 16

Undecided: 58

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 18

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±6%)

Senate general election matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Undecided: 21

Dan Gelber (D): 22

Charlie Crist (R): 57

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Governor primary matchups:

Jeb Bush (R): 64

Bill McCollum (R): 13

Charles Bronson (R): 2

Undecided: 21

Bill McCollum (R): 39

Charles Bronson (R): 12

Undecided: 49

(MoE: ±6%)

Governor general election matchups:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Alex Sink (D): 37

Charles Bronson (R): 29

Undecided: 34

Alex Sink (D): 34

Jeb Bush (R): 50

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I’m including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client – the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.

From the Sunshine State:

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum launched his fourth bid for statewide office in his hometown of Orlando on Monday, announcing he would try to keep the governor’s office in Republican hands in 2010. …

Since Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision last week to run for the U.S. Senate instead of re-election, Republican political leaders hoping to avoid a primary have rushed to throw their support behind McCollum, 64, a 20-year former Central Florida congressman who ran for the Senate twice during this decade.

McCollum is the first major Republican to announce he would try to replace Crist, although Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson of Osceola County has said he will decide this week whether he would also run.

Partisans with long memories will recall that McCollum was one of the House impeachment “managers” who led the infamous witchhunt against Bill Clinton. He also got beaten by Bill Nelson for the open seat Senate race in 2000, and then lost to Mel Martinez in the GOP primary four years later.

A Mason-Dixon poll released last month showed a tie game between McCollum and the likely Dem nominee, CFO Alex Sink, who of course just got into the race last week. SSP currently rates this race a Tossup.

In a statement:

Today, I’m announcing I will be a candidate for Governor of Florida in the November 2010 election, and put my business experience and know-how to work restoring our economy.

This is great news for Florida Dems – this seat instantly rockets to the top of our big-state pickup lists. As such, the Swing State Project is moving this from a Safe R “Race to Watch” to Tossup.

A few months ago, this possibility seemed shocking, and nothing if not remote. But now it’s happened:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced Tuesday morning he will run for U.S. Senate.

On his Twitter page, Crist wrote, “After thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate.”

Twitter – how cute. Quite unusually (but you can understand the motivation), John Cornyn and the NRSC instantly endorsed Crist. Conservative belle du jour Marco Rubio fired right back (also on Twitter! how savvy): “Disappointed GOP senate comm endorses Crist on day 1. Remember that reform must always come from the outside. Status quo won’t change itself.”

Rubio also released a new attack ad (not sure if it’s airing on TV, or if it’s just web fodder) linking Obama and Crist, with a photo showing them embracing. If Crist survives the primary, this tactic might wind up doing him a favor, assuming Obama is still popular in eighteen months from now. But the Republican contest ought to be a lot of fun no matter what.

In any event, with polling showing Crist far ahead in the GOP primary, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on FL-Sen from Tossup to Likely R – for now. It’s still early. We also anticipate changing our rating on the FL-Gov race soon, too.

 

• MO-Sen: Law professor Tom Schweich has publicly floated running for the Missouri GOP Senate nomination. Schweich used to be John Danforth’s chief of staff and was Ambassador for counternarcotics in Afghanistan in the Bush administration. Interestingly, the main motivation for his run that he’s putting out there is the fear (nay, likelihood) that Roy Blunt would lose the general election and that he (as sort of a Danforth proxy) offers a more appealing figure.

• VA-Gov: Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, who’s been demonstrating a lot of momentum in the polls lately, got another big boost: he picked up the endorsement of the SEIU today.

• NM-Gov: New Mexico’s only current statewide Republican elected official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, was a rumored gubernatorial candidate, especially since he’s term-limited out of his current job. In an indication of how popular the GOP brand is in New Mexico right now, Lyons decided to pass on the open seat race, instead running for an open position on New Mexico’s Public Regulation Commission.

• FL-Gov: I hadn’t even considered, with Charlie Crist bolting from Tallahassee, that Jeb! Bush might seek a return engagement as governor. After a Draft Jeb website popped up, Bush politely declined, saying that he will instead “continue to play a constructive role in the future of the Republican Party.”

• OH-Auditor: David Pepper (D), a Hamilton Co. Commissioner (and former Cinci Councilor/Cinci mayoral candidate who lost by a hair in 2005) is going to run against Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor (R). This is a crucial office because it controls a seat on the Ohio Reapportionment Board (which draws state legislative seats) and the GOP will be making a serious run at the open Secretary of State position that Jennifer Brunner is vacating (which also determines a seat on the board). Taylor says that she will announce whether she’ll run for re-election or in the GOP primary against Rob Portman for Senate later this week. (J)

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta has been acting like a candidate for a long time, but finally had his official kickoff event yesterday. Guinta hit every note in the libertarian book, singing the praises of tea baggers, criticizing the stimulus package, and saying that EFCA is “blatantly against” New Hampshire’s “live free or die” mentality.

• IL-06: Lost in the IL-Sen shuffle is Rep. Peter Roskam, who had occasionally been mentioned as a candidate for that (or governor). Roskam says it’s “increasingly less likely” that he’ll run for higher office, and seek to stay put instead.

• NRCC: The NRCC has launched a new wave of radio ads against theoretically vulnerable Dems in nine districts, still harping on the stimulus package, trying to tie them to John Murtha and his “airport for no one” (riffing on the “bridge to nowhere,” I suppose). Targets were Vic Snyder (AR-02), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Harry Teague (NM-02), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL).

• Mayors: Yet more mayoral elections in the news. Today, it’s Omaha, where there’s a faceoff between Democrat Jim Suttle and Republican Hal Daub (a former mayor and former Representative) to replaced retiring Dem mayor Mike Fahey. A recent poll had Daub up 42-39, but there may be a Democratic trend at work in Omaha (as seen in Obama’s victory in NE-02).

With Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announcing his candidacy for the U.S. Senate today, a lot of dominoes are set to fall in Florida over the coming weeks as lower-level officeholders seek to move up a rung or two on the good ol’ electoral ladder. One such drone who won’t be looking for a promotion is one Vernon G. Buchanan, according to the Bradenton Herald:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s entry into the 2010 Senate race has prompted U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan to drop his senatorial aspirations and declare that he will seek re-election to his House seat instead.

“Representing Florida’s 13th district in the U.S. House is an honor and a privilege,” Buchanan said in a news release issued today. “I look forward to the opportunity to continue serving the people.”

Buchanan’s R-tilting seat likely would have hosted a competitive race without Buchanan on the ticket, but Democrats will have a tough time finding anyone of note to run against Vern now. One candidate who had been eyeing the race with the DCCC’s encouragement, state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, recently said that he would probably not run for the seat if Buchanan didn’t scram.