Tag: OH-Auditor

Yesterday’s primary elections in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio showed two things: one, despite all the huffing and puffing about it being an anti-incumbent year and there being a massive wave of teabaggers ready to take the system down, establishment candidates still won pretty much everything. And two, the enthusiasm gap between the parties that we’ve been warned about is definitely out there, and numbers from last night back that up.

Indiana: Indiana was the case study for what went wrong with the anti-establishment candidates — there were just too many of them. In Republican race after race, the anti-establishment votes were split between too many candidates, letting the incumbents or the anointed challengers slip through; had the teabaggers had the presence of mind to unite behind one person, they could have done some actual damage. In the Senate primary, 90s-leftover Dan Coats won with a tepid 39%, beating state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (standard-bearer of the DeMint wing of the teabaggers) at 29 and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (representing the Paulist wing) at 23. As we’ve wondered openly before at SSP, I have no idea whether that’s better or worse for Democrats, seeing as how Coats has access to actual money but also a dump-truck full of vulnerabilities (starting off with the possibility that the NRA might actually support Brad Ellsworth over the Brady Bill-supporting Coats).

The same dynamic played out in a slew of House races. In IN-03, somnambulistic Rep. Mark Souder won with 48% over two opponents, Bob Thomas at 34% and Phil Troyer at 16%. In the open seat race in IN-04, SoS Todd Rokita only cleared 42%, although there were 13 contestants in the race and his nearest rival, Brandt Hershman, only reached 17%. In IN-05, widely disliked Rep. Dan Burton managed to way underperform his 52% from his last primary: he only got to 30%; luckily for him, his opposition was so chopped up that he still survived, with former state GOP chair Luke Messer coming closest at 28%. In IN-08, the NRCC’s pick, surgeon Larry Bucshon, barely survived a horde of teabaggers, most of whom coalesced behind Kristi Risk, whom he beat 33-29. And in IN-09, a three-way duel between ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel, establishment pick attorney Todd Young, and teabagger fave Travis Hankins wound up with Young winning with 34%, with Hankins at 32% and Sodrel at 30% (sparing us Baron Hill vs. Sodrel Round Five). The only dominant performance was Jackie Wolarski in IN-02, who picked up 61% of the vote to Jack Jordan’s 28%.

As with Coats, it’s unclear to me who we’d rather have faced in those races. In each case, it was a choice between an establishment guy with money but who isn’t going to excite the GOP base, vs. an outsider without the connections or, possibly, the campaign chops. Maybe Risk’s loss will help with Democrat Trent Van Haaften’s outreach to the local teabaggery, and in the 9th, while it’s sad Baron Hill won’t get to face off against the increasingly laughable Sodrel, Young seems to come with his own set of problems (first and foremost, a big recent donation from Don Blankenship, controversial CEO of coal mining company Massey Energy).

North Carolina: The big story in North Carolina was the Democratic primary in the Senate race. Thanks to a fairly strong performance from third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis, nobody cleared the 40% mark, and we’re headed to a June 22 runoff between SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, which’ll be a duel between name rec (Marshall) and money (Cunningham). Marshall finished at 36%, Cunningham at 27%, and Lewis at 17%.

At the House level, in the main race where the GOP is playing offense, the primary is also headed to a runoff. In NC-08, unhinged rich guy Tim D’Annunzio got 37% and ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson got 33%. NC-11 had looked like it was also headed to a runoff, but by night’s end businessman Jeff Miller barely cleared the hurdle, with 40.2%. In both those races, the Dem incumbents got mild rebukes from their bases (presumably over their anti-HCR votes), with Larry Kissell getting only 63% and Heath Shuler getting 62%. In NC-06 and NC-10, geriatric Howard Coble (64%) and bombastic Patrick McHenry (63%) also underperformed against fractured opposition. You have to look further downballot to see any bodies falling: five incumbent state legislators lost their primaries (four of them Dems, although some of these look like safe seats).

Ohio: The main event in Ohio was the Senate primary for Democrats, where Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as expected beat SoS Jennifer Brunner 55-45. Considering how vastly Brunner was outspent, and the trajectory of the last week’s polls, it’s actually surprising it was that close. Apparently Brunner’s hard work on the ground in some of Ohio’s reddish areas in the last weeks of the campaign paid off some dividends, as she put up big leads in the Cincinnati area (Hamilton and Clermont Counties). Naturally, it leaves you to wonder what she could have done if she’d had some actual money.

In the House, OH-02 was the scene of two contested primaries. Rep. Jean Schmidt survived her primary challenge with little trouble, beating Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn 62-22. On the Dem side, Surya Yalamanchili squeaked out a 41-38 win over David Krikorian, with apparently enough people repulsed by both to give 22% to Some Dude J. Parker. Krikorian continued to be a douchebag even in defeat, accusing Yalamanchili of having played “the race card.” The establishment candidates in the two other big GOP primaries both prevailed: in OH-16, Jim Renacci got 49% to 40% for Matt Miller (his third straight time breaking 40% but losing the GOP primary here). And state Sen. Bob Gibbs, the NRCC’s recruit in OH-18, seems to have beaten Fred Dailey by about 200 votes (at 21% each), although this race appears headed to a recount. (One would be hard-pressed to call Dailey, the 2008 nominee and former state Agriculture Director, an outsider candidate, although at least he was certainly angry this time around.)

In Ohio, there were also some allegedly hot primaries for the GOP in statewide races, where teabagger favorites were taking on establishment picks, that also turned out to be a big bucket of nothing. In the SoS primary, state Sen. Jon Husted beat Sandra O’Brien 67-33, while in the Auditor race, Delaware Co. Prosecutor Dave Yost (who was the teabagger fave when he was in the AG race running against the guy they really hate, Mike DeWine, but became their enemy when he switched over to the Auditor’s race against the guy they liked) beat state Rep. Seth Morgan 65-35.

Finally, as I said at the start, there’s the matter of turnout disparities. Reid Wilson points to how only 662K voters voted in the OH-Sen Democratic primary, which was lower than the number of Democratic voters (872K) in the Democratic primary in 2006 (where there was no contested D primary in either the Governor or Senate races). That jibes with the broader numbers we’ve been seeing about enthusiasm gaps (as with Gallup‘s recent poll showing 43% of Republicans are “very enthused” about voting, while 33% of Democrats are). The falloff was similar in Indiana, where only 204K Dems participated as opposed to 304K in 2006, although it’s worth noting that the Dems were playing offense in 2006 and had contested House primaries, while this year there was really bupkus to get Dems to the polls in Indiana. In North Carolina, 425K voted in the Dem primary. Reid compares this to 2004, where more Dems showed up in the primary, but that may not be an apt comparison as that’s a presidential year — regardless, that too may be an ominous number in the context of the Republican Senate primary, where almost as many, 374K, voted to help Richard Burr dispatch no-name opposition.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: SurveyUSA (4/19-21, likely voters):

Tom Campbell (R): 34

Carly Fiorina (R): 27

Chuck DeVore (R): 14

Tim Kalemkarian (R): 3

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Meg Whitman (R): 49

Steve Poizner (R): 27

Others (R): 9

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Jerry Brown (D): 63

Richard Aguirre (D): 6

Lowell Darling (D): 6

Peter Schurman (D): 1

Others (D): 6

Undecided (D): 18

(MoE: ±3.6%)

It’s nice to see SurveyUSA getting into the game in California (although this poll is primaries only); they find, as did Capital Weekly yesterday, that Meg Whitman’s big lead over Steve Poizner is dissipating. However, with only a few weeks left until early voting begins (on May 10), it seems unlikely Poizner will be able to catch up all the way. Unlike Capital Weekly, though, they find, like most pollsters, that Tom Campbell’s lead over Carly Fiorina in the Senate primary is down in the single-digits. And apparently Jerry Brown has some primary opposition. Who knew? Peter Schurman is one of the founders of MoveOn.org, who launched a last-minute candidacy, but his lack of name recognition seems to relegate him behind some other no-names who at least have more interesting-sounding names (Lowell Darling?).

• FL-Sen: Awwwwwk-ward. George LeMieux is Charlie Crist’s former chief of staff and his hand-installed seat-warmer in the Senate seat that Crist assumed was his for the taking. But now, LeMieux is weighing whether he’ll have to say that he’ll endorse Marco Rubio for the seat if Crist pulls the trigger on his anticipated independent bid. LeMieux is reportedly interested in a 2012 Senate bid against Bill Nelson, and unless he too plans to take the indie route, can’t afford to anger the GOP rabble. PPP’s Tom Jensen takes a look at LeMieux and finds that, with his 13/33 approval (including 15/29 among Republicans), he isn’t likely to be a viable 2012 candidate regardless of how he plays his cards next week.

• KY-Sen: It looks like the story about Dan Mongiardo’s housing stipend may have some legs to it. It was revealed a few weeks ago that Mongiardo was living with his in-laws in Frankfort but still accepting the housing stipend that comes with his job, but now the news is that he used his $30K/yr. housing allowance to buy a Frankfort-area farm where he didn’t live but that, in 2003, he looked into trying to develop as a subdivision. There’s also a last-minute hit on the Republican side of the race, as Trey Grayson filed complaints with a variety of agencies alleging that Rand Paul hasn’t been paying the proper withholding taxes on some of his campaign staff. (They’re listed as “independent contractors,” which means there’s no withholding, but it’s doubtful they meet the legal criteria for being independent contractors.)

• LA-Sen: Local Democrats are asking for federal investigation into allegations that David Vitter threatened to pull federal funds to the (private) University of New Orleans if it allowed Charlie Melancon to speak at a Democratic committee meeting scheduled on campus on April 10. The meeting was subsequently canceled.

• NV-Sen: There’s a debate among the Republican candidates for Senate in Reno tonight; it’s the first major public appearance for Sue Lowden after the chickens-for-care fiasco, so it’ll be interesting to see whether her opponents shower her with derision or if they try to outflank her on the right by throwing even more white meat to the base. Here’s a clue: one of Lowden’s predecessors, former state party chair Chuck Muth, says “It is absolutely breathtaking at how badly the Lowden camp has mishandled the situation.”

• MI-Gov: Ordinarily Mitt Romney endorsements don’t get too much ink here, but this is an interesting one: he endorsed Rep. Peter Hoekstra for Michigan governor. This is relevant in a couple ways: one, Romney is the son of ex-Gov. George Romney and those are meaningful connections, seeing how he fared well in the Michigan primary in 2008, so it carries some weight. And two, if Romney is going to try to be the moderate, sane guy in the 2012 GOP primary, you’d think he’d find a different way to show it than by endorsing the hard-right, strident Hoekstra.

• MN-Gov: The DFL endorsing convention in Minnesota is tomorrow, and the main event is who gets the gubernatorial endorsement… which, given the big crowd, could require many ballots to decide. Six Dems are still left contesting the nomination: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (considered the two frontrunners, based on the precinct-level straw polling), state Sen. John Marty, state Reps. Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza. Former Sen. Mark Dayton and Ramsey Co. DA Susan Gaertner are also running, but plan to contest the primary no matter what and therefore aren’t bothering with seeking the endorsement. (Entenza also plans to be in the primary no matter what, which means he’s unlikely to get any support at the convention, but still is participating at the convention.)

• NY-Gov: Remind me again why Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is running for Governor as a Republican? I suppose it was because state chair Ed Cox promised him a smooth ride to the nomination, but if the endorsements of the various county-level GOP chairs around New York is any indication, it looks like Cox sold Levy a bill of goods. Levy has been endorsed by only 14 county chairs, with a weighted vote of 26%, while ex-Rep. Rick Lazio has the backing of 27 county chairs with a weighted vote of 51%. 19 chairs remain neutral.

• OH-Gov: When we talk about the money chase, it’s usually focused on the federal races, but Ohio is a good reminder that the money pours into the state-level races too. Big money is at work in the Buckeye State, as incumbent Dem Ted Strickland raised $1.6 million last quarter and has $7.1 million CoH, while GOP challenger John Kasich raised $2 million and has $5.1 million CoH. Even the downballot races aren’t immune: GOP SoS candidate Jon Husted has $2 million in the bank (dwarfing Democratic opponent Maryellen O’Shaughnessy), while Democratic Auditor candidate David Pepper is sitting on $785K, giving him a huge advantage over his GOP opponents.

• FL-08: Former state Sen. Daniel Webster (who’s known for not following through on his intentions to run for things) decided to go through with his threats to run against Rep. Alan Grayson, getting a late start on the race. Webster probably could have cleared the field if he’d gotten in the first time around, half a year ago, but now the various primary opponents (state Rep. Kurt Kelly, Bruce O’Donoghue, Todd Long) say they won’t get out of the way. Webster comes to the table with two big-name endorsements, though, which might help him make up some fundraising ground quickly: Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee. The local GOP establishment is fractured, though, as Mel Martinez is sticking with his ally O’Donoghue.

• GA-04: Rep. Hank Johnson, facing a competitive Dem primary with Vernon Jones, got a big endorsement today, from one Barack Obama. (Johnson was the first member of the Georgia delegation to endorse Obama.) With Obama having won the black-majority 4th by a 79-21 margin, it’s an endorsement I’d expect that Johnson welcomes.

• NM-02: Apparently there had been some goading of Democratic freshman Rep. Harry Teague from Republican quarters for him to release his internal polling, which he hasn’t done previously. Ask and ye shall receive… Hamilton Campaigns finds Teague leading ex-Rep. Steve Pearce 47-46. That compares favorably to Teague’s internal from August, which, unsurprisingly, he didn’t release; there, Teague trailed 52-42. The one public poll of the race, from PPP in February, gave Pearce a 43-41 lead.

• NY-19: Here’s a weird story out of the GOP primary in the 19th, where ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is already brandishing lots of money. Apparently there’s a phantom candidate out there by the name of Kristia Cavere, who’s claiming to have raised $300K in a matter of weeks and is now sitting on $400K CoH. That can’t be verified, however, because Cavere’s camp hasn’t filed an FEC Q1 report yet, though, and her spokesperson pointed to a loophole that doesn’t really exist. Furthermore, no one really seems sure what the 31-year-old Cavere does, other than having recently gotten a master’s degree, or how she’d have access to such money.

• OH-13: This is one of those “huh?” moments that makes you check the calendar to see what century you’re living in. The Medina County GOP sent out a mailer with a bullet-pointed list of to-do items. One of them was “Let’s take Betty Sutton out of the House and put her back in the kitchen!”

• AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth has made it pretty clear already that he’s taking on John McCain in the Republican Senate primary, and now he’s made it official when he’s going to make it official. The launch date for his campaign: Feb. 15.

• CT-Sen, CT-02: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons did a whole lot of bobbing and weaving when an interviewer yesterday kept pressing him on the issue of whether he’d consider dropping down to run for his old House seat again (although a spokesperson followed up afterwards, saying he will not running for anything else, “period”). The idea has to be tempting to Simmons, though, who just watched his Senate dreams vaporize with Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal’s entry, and who may by enviously eyeing efforts by some of the other 2006 victims (like Mike Fitzpatrick) to turn back the clock.

• KS-Sen: There’s still six months to go before their Republican Senate primary, but time’s running out for Rep. Todd Tiahrt to make a move against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran. Moran leads this month’s SurveyUSA poll 40-33 (two months ago Tiahrt pulled within 3, but that’s the closest he’s been). Moran is currently up 38-23 in the state’s northeast, which will be the decisive region (as they each have their respective districts already locked down).

• NV-Sen: File this under “it’s bad news even if you have to be out there repeatedly saying this,” but Harry Reid again denied (this time to Las Vegas political reporter Jon Ralston) that he’d drop out of his fizzling Senate race to make way for a different candidate. On the GOP side, one potential opponent, Sue Lowden, is up with her first TV spot, a soft-focus biographical ad. Taking note of these developments, no doubt, are Dick Durbin and Charles Schumer; insiders are observing that the two of them are both busy doling out campaign cash to their colleagues in order to build loyalties for what looks like the fight to be the next majority leader.

• NY-Sen-B: In case you missed it, last night’s point-by-point dismantling of Harold Ford Jr. by Stephen Colbert is a must-see. It clearly wasn’t the coming-out gala that Ford had envisioned.

• UT-Sen: The establishment is riding to the rescue for Bob Bennett, who could be threatened in this year’s primary if the teabagging rabble somehow coalesced behind one of his many opponents. The NRSC just handed $43K to Bennett’s campaign (an important sign to other institutional contributors), and Newt Gingrich is headlining a big-bucks fundraiser for Bennett.

• CA-Gov: Republican pollster McLaughlin & Associates (apparently not working on behalf of any of the candidates) released a poll of the Republican gubernatorial primary, finding zillionairess Meg Whitman leading zillionaire Steve Poizner, 39-12. Apparently they were in the field when Tom Campbell bailed out, as they also offer up a three-way head-to-head, which was 31 Whitman, 17 Campbell, 5 Poizner.  

• CT-Gov: A couple comings and goings in Connecticut today: as expected, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton got in the Republican field. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Gary LeBeau, who’d been polling in the low single digits, dropped out. In a moment of unusual honesty for a politician, LeBeau said, “The state has no idea who Gary LeBeau is.”

• OR-Gov: This is a bit of a surprise, but in the wake of Al Gore’s endorsement, it’s certainly an indication that ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (something of an underdog in the Democratic primary against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber) has some powerful friends back in DC. Howard Dean will appear at several fundraisers for Bradbury in Oregon next week.

• FL-08: Here’s another surprise: brash 20-something real estate developer Armando Gutierrez dropped out of the GOP field in the 8th, despite having attracted a lot of favorable buzz and even picked up a few endorsements from members of Florida’s House delegation. The national party never warmed up to him, though, seemingly put off by his line-crashing, and he may have finally gotten the message, between the NRCC’s preferred pick, businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, officially filing yesterday, and the endorsement by neighboring Rep. Cliff Stearns of yet another Republican in the crowded field, state Rep. Kurt Kelly.

• FL-19: In all the madness over the Illinois primaries today, it’s been almost universally forgotten that the primary in the safely-blue 19th to replace resigned Rep. Robert Wexler is also today. It’s hardly worth a look, though, as state Sen. Ted Deutch pretty much has it locked down, having raised many times more money than anyone else and nailed down the establishment endorsements. Former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber is the only other candidate of note.

• IN-04: Despite the advantages that his statewide profile brings him, SoS Todd Rokita won’t have the GOP field to replace retiring Rep. Steve Buyer to himself. He’ll have to face state Sen. Brandt Hershman too. Hershman has one key advantage himself: he works as an aide to Buyer, and has Buyer’s backing.

• NV-03: Here’s some good news for ex-state Sen. Joe Heck: he just got $10K to go toward his campaign against vulnerable Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus. The bad news is: that $10K came from the PAC of John Ensign, who just won’t stop trying to make himself useful to Nevada’s other Republicans despite the fact that he’s about as popular as shingles right now. But then Heck got some more good news: he won’t face a seriously contested primary, as self-funding businessman Rob Lauer dropped his teabaggish challenge to Heck to run for SoS instead.

• NY-13: A lot of people are asking who Michael Grimm is, after he banked over $300K last quarter to go up against Democratic Rep. Michael McMahon. He’s a former FBI agent, who apparently has a lot of friends in high places… in places outside of his district. Only $3,500 of that amount came from within the actual district, and $2,000 of that was from Staten Island Republican guru Guy Molinari.

• NY-14: Live by the primary challenge, die by the primary challenge. Rep. Carolyn Maloney now faces one of her own, a well-funded challenge from the apparent right from 30-something attorney Reshma Saujani, who has previously raised serious dollars within the Indian-American community for other Democratic candidates. Saujani, believe it or not, is running on an unashamedly pro-Wall Street platform (although this is maybe the one district in the country where that might still work).

• PA-06: Two more prominent local Democrats who had endorsed Doug Pike when he was the only game in town have switched their endorsements to Manan Trivedi instead. Significantly, they’re both in Berks County (which is also where Trivedi is from, and which is where Dems have tended to run the weakest in the district in the past): Reading mayor Tom McMahon and Berks Co. Commissioner Kevin Barnhardt.

• TN-01: Would you believe that there’s a Republican who lost in one of the wave elections who isn’t running for something this year? However, before you get too excited, it’s ex-Rep. David Davis, who’d been mulling a third matchup against Rep. Phil Roe, who knocked him off in a GOP primary in this super-red district in eastern Tennessee. The not-insane Roe may be the best we can hope for in this district, especially compared with Davis, who’d been making outreach to the local teabaggers in preparation for another run.

• WV-03: A credible challenger to Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall sneaked under the rope at the filing deadline: former state Supreme Court justice Elliott Maynard. Maynard was, until recently, a Democrat, but switched parties pushed along largely by his perception of Democrats’ anti-coal environmental policies (and no doubt also influenced by West Virginia’s reddish turn over the last decade).

• OH-SoS: This was painless and easy: not only did a more progressive alternative to conservative state Rep. Jennifer Garrison get into the Secretary of State race – Franklin Co. Court Clerk Maryellen O’Shaughnessy – but she won’t even face a contested primary. Getting the message that her establishment support was practically nil, Garrison got out of the race. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the GOP establishment seems to have settled the trouble it was having finding a replacement Auditor candidate after Mary Taylor ditched the job to run for Lt. Governor. They got Delaware Co. Prosecutor Kevin Yost to switch over from the AG’s race, where he was facing ex-Sen. Mike DeWine in a primary. That caused a lot of consternation among the state’s right-wingers, though – they were looking forward to Yost picking off the unacceptably moderate (and generally underwhelming) DeWine in the primary. Both the SoS and Auditor positions are key from a redistricting perspective, as along with the Governor they control the state’s legislative redistricting process.

• Republicans: If you haven’t checked out the details of Research 2000’s in-depth poll of the state of what Republicans believe today, please do. Although I’m not really still sure what to do with all this knowledge… except maybe acknowledge that you can’t negotiate with such irrational actors.

• Redistricting: CQ’s Josh Kurtz takes an interesting look at redistricting in California over the decades, as seen through the prism of a new book that covers the many ups and downs of legendary California Rep. Philip Burton. Will it be an incumbent protection map or an aggressive push, and how will the state’s fast-growing Latino population be accommodated?

• MA-Sen: With last night’s Suffolk poll, there really can’t be any doubt any more that the Massachusetts Senate race qualifies as a “Toss Up,” so we’re changing our rating to reflect that. There’s still room for skepticism on whether Scott Brown can in fact pull it out, given not only the difficulty of pinning down a likely voter universe in a rapidly-fluctuating special election, but also the Democrats’ structural advantages on the ground in the Bay State. (The Democrats have the advantage of labor and local machines long-skilled at rousting out voters and getting them to the polls, while it’s questionable whether the Republicans have, given their long neglect of the state, any ground troops to deploy here, or even up-to-date, refined voter databases.) Nevertheless, given what can actually be quantified, right now the polls balance out to more or less a tie, and that’s how we have to treat the race.

The breaking news du jour is that Barack Obama has finally agreed to head up to Massachusetts and stump for Martha Coakley on Sunday. Also, the Coakley campaign is rolling out a second ad for the weekend, to go with their ad showcasing the Vicki Kennedy endorsement; they’re also running a populist-themed ad on Wall Street regulation (specifically, the rather narrow issue of the proposed bonus tax on banks). The ad deluge is being bolstered a League of Conservation Voters ad buy for $350K; on the third-party front, that’s being countered by a pro-Brown ad buy for $500K from Americans for Job Security.

• CA-Sen: Yesterday I was musing about whether ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the GOP Senate primary hurt Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore more, and we already seem to have an answer. The Campbell camp is touting an internal poll showing them with a sizable lead over both Fiorina and DeVore in the primary: Campbell is at 31, with Fiorina at 15 and DeVore at 12. The few polls of the primary so far have shown Fiorina and DeVore deadlocked in the 20s, so maybe it’s safe to say that Campbell hurts them each equally.

• FL-Sen: Which of these is not like the other? There’s a new multi-candidate GOP fundraising PAC called the U.S. Senate Victory Committee, which benefits seven different Republicans: Kelly Ayotte, Roy Blunt, Jane Norton, Rob Portman, Rob Simmons, Pat Toomey… and Marco Rubio? Six establishment candidates, and one insurgent. Or is Rubio the new establishment?

• PPP (pdf): PPP looks all the way to 2012 as part of their wide-ranging Nevada survey, and finds that John Ensign may weather his whole giving-a-patronage-job-to-the-cuckolded-husband-of-his-mistress thing, if he runs again. Ensign trails Las Vegas mayor (but probable 2010 gubernatorial candidate) only Oscar Goodman 43-41, but leads Rep. Shelly Berkley 49-40 and SoS Ross Miller 47-36. Of course, Berkley and Miller aren’t that well-known yet and would presumably gain ground in an active 2012 race, but again, more food for thought on the idea that Republicans really don’t get the vapors over sex scandals after all, so long as they’re perpetrated by Republicans.

• MN-Gov: The St. Paul Pioneer Press is out with a poll of Minnesota voters (by a pollster I’ve never heard of, Decision Resources Ltd.). The poll seemed most focused on the question of whether there should be public funding of the new Vikings stadium, but it did throw in (almost as an afterthought) something we haven’t seen before: general election head-to-heads in the Governor’s race. The numbers are pretty encouraging for the Democrats: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton leads ex-Sen. Norm Coleman 41-31, and state Rep. Marty Seifert (who, assuming Coleman doesn’t get in, is the likeliest GOP nominee) 41-25. State House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher beats Coleman 33-31, and Pat Anderson (who dropped out of the race this week) 33-23. There weren’t any numbers for Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, another strong contender for the Dem nod. And yes, if you’re wondering, this does take into account the potential spoiler role of Minnesota’s Independence Party; IP candidates account for 11 to 13 percent of the vote in each of these trial heats. (H/t alphaaqua.)

• NH-Gov: One other gubernatorial poll has good news for Democrats, and it even comes from Rasmussen. They find incumbent Gov. John Lynch in safe position with 58/38 approvals and, against his no-name opponents, leading social conservative activist Karen Testerman 53-30 and businessman Jack Kimball 51-32.

• OH-Gov: Who knew that John Kasich had the power to transcend the boundaries of space and time? In an effort to court the GOP’s restive base, Kasich said “I think I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party.”

• WY-Gov: One more big-name Republican (by Wyoming’s small standards) is getting into the gubernatorial race, banking on the assumption that incumbent Dem Dave Freudenthal won’t jump through the legal hoops necessary to run for a third term. Auditor Rita Meyer is getting into the race, where potential GOP primary rivals include former US Attorney Matt Mead and state House speaker Colin Simpson.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is showing his true colors. The party-switcher has been turning away requests for refunds of contributions that don’t meet the requirements buried in the fine print: he says he can’t refund donations for the 2008 cycle, only the 2010 cycle, because the 2008 contributions were spent long ago.

• AR-02: Rep. Vic Snyder is in pretty dire shape, if a new poll from SurveyUSA is to be believed: he trails Republican candidate and former US Attorney Tim Griffin by a 56-39 margin. You may want to take this poll with a grain of salt, as it was paid for by Firedoglake, who seem to have an axe to grind in the health care reform debate, and the Snyder numbers seem to be less the main point than engaging in strangely-right-wing-sounding message-testing. The good news is that, even after a variety of anti-HCR arguments have been offered (and Nate Silver does a fine job of picking apart the survey), Snyder doesn’t fare much worse (at 58-35); the bad news, though, is that the 56-39 topline question was asked before any of the litany of anti-HCR talking points, suggesting that, HCR or no, we have a major problem in Arkansas.

• AZ-03: Despite Jon Hulburd’s surprising cash haul, he may have bigger company in the Democratic primary to replace recently-retired Republican Rep. John Shadegg. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is the subject of speculation; he had briefly considered a 2008 run against Shadegg before ruling it out, saying his post-mayoral future would be in the private sector, but all eyes are on what he does now. (Gordon lives slightly outside the district’s boundaries.) On the GOP side, there’s no clear frontrunner at all. State Rep. Sam Crump has already said he’s running. Possible other candidates include state Treasurer Dean Martin (who would have to drop down from the gubernatorial bid he just launched this week), state Sens. Pamela Gorman and Jim Waring, Phoenix city councilor Peggy Neely, former ASU football star Andrew Walter, and, in a shocker, the co-founder of Taser International Inc., Tom Smith. Former state House speaker Jim Weiers has taken himself out of the running.

• NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller has reversed course and will run against Democratic Blue Dog Rep. Heath Shuler in the 11th. Miller had been recruited to run, but decided against it; he’ll have to face a primary against Hendersonville mayor Greg Newman, who got in after Miller initially declined.

• OH-15: The Ohio GOP is still searching for an Auditor candidate after Mary Taylor decided to run for Lt. Governor instead of re-election. Former state Sen. Steve Stivers has been asked to run for Auditor, but made clear he’ll be staying in the race in the 15th (where he might actually have better odds, considering how close he came to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy last time).

OH-Sen (1/12, likely voters, 12/7 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 44 (38)

Other: 4 (8)

Undecided: 14 (18)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40 (33)

Rob Portman (R): 43 (40)

Other: 5 (7)

Undecided: 13 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The only thing that seems different between today’s Rasmussen look at the Ohio Senate race and last month’s is that there’s some swapping of positions in terms of which Dem does better vis-a-vis Republican ex-Rep. Rob Portman. Last month, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher seemed to be doing better on that metric, against a backdrop of an ongoing sense of the wheels falling off Jennifer Brunner’s campaign. Still, her problems seem to be primarily financial, not message- or reputation-related, and this month she bounces back, coming within 3 of Portman while Fisher trails by 7.

I wonder if this is similar to the way that Rasmussen has been seeing Marco Rubio and Rand Paul overperforming against Dems in the general vis-a-vis their more establishment opponents. Because of the aggressive Rasmussen LV screen which seems to pick up the most especially informed and motivated voters, proportionately more of their Dems may be progressive base voters (who’d be more attracted to the feisty Brunner than the ill-defined Fisher).

Rasmussen (1/12, likely voters,  12/7 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40 (39)

Jon Kasich (R): 47 (48)

Other: 4 (3)

Undecided: 8 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Not much of anything has changed in the last month in Rasmussen’s view of the Governor’s race; they still find ex-Rep. John Kasich with a sizable edge on Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland (although it should be noted that no other pollster has given Kasich a lead). Perhaps the most interesting news from this race lately came today, with Kasich’s decision to tap Auditor Mary Taylor (the Republicans’ only statewide elected official at this point, in the wake of their 2006 meltdown) as his running mate.

This may serve to help Kasich, by adding a somewhat-well-known, telegenic figure to his ticket. However, it’s leaving a big hole in the Auditor race, where the Republicans are currently candidate-less. And that’s one statewide race where the Dems were already in good position, with Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper fundraising well to go up against Taylor. At this point, you may be saying “Auditor? Yawn.” Well, Ohio does its state legislative redistricting (not its congressional redistricting, alas) via a 5-member board, of which the Governor, Secretary of State, and Auditor are the decisive members. So, if Dems hold 2 of those 3 offices (as they currently do), they get to re-do the state legislative districts in their favor, undoing the harmful Republican gerrymander of last decade. And if the Republicans lose Auditor, that means they’d need to pick up both Governor and SoS (unfortunately, that’s more than theoretically possible, with Kasich running strong and state Sen. Jon Husted a good GOP SoS candidate).

To that end, the GOP is scrambling to recruit an Auditor candidate, to the extent that they’re begging ex-Senator Mike DeWine to drop down from his already-underwhelming bid in the AG’s race. (That would also solve the problem of the GOP AG primary, where DeWine faces Delaware County prosecutor Dave Yost; DeWine has a big money edge, but Yost has gotten the endorsement of the county-level party in some conservative-leaning counties.) They’re also asking state Rep. and Treasurer candidate Josh Mandel to switch over. Neither DeWine or Mandel says they’re interested in a switch, though. The only GOPer currently interested in jumping into the Auditor race is little-known Dayton-area state Rep. Seth Morgan.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | OH-Gov

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There have been rumors about this before that didn’t pan out, but based on the amount of chatter out there, it’s seeming very likely all of a sudden: ex-Rep. Tom Campbell sounds poised to drop his gubernatorial bid (where he’s been polling well, but is way financially outgunned) and move over to the Senate race. He sounds likely to announce this on Thursday, seeing as how he has said he will be appearing at a Los Angeles County GOP event then, but “not as a candidate for Governor.” Weirdly, this could wind up helping Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the Senate primary, as Campbell was one of three ostensible moderates (with no right-winger) in the Governor’s race, but now Campbell and Carly Fiorina will be splitting the moderate vote in the Senate primary, potentially letting ultra-conservative DeVore crash the gate.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio has been winning his fair share of county GOP straw polls lately, but this one was more eagerly awaited than most, because it’s Charlie Crist’s home county. Rubio continues his winning streak, winning the straw poll in moderate-leaning Pinellas County (home of St. Petersburg) by a 106-54 margin.

• IL-Sen: This seems like a good get for David Hoffman, as he seeks to make up some ground on Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary: he got the Dem primary endorsements of both Chicago’s major papers, the Tribune and Sun-Times (although getting the endorsement of the more conservative and anti-machine Tribune doesn’t seem odd for Hoffman, given his reformist message). On the GOP side, Rep. Mark Kirk got an endorsement from one of his fellow moderates from the state delegation, downstate Rep. Timothy Johnson.

• MA-Sen: If you were thinking, in the wake of a couple good polls in Massachusetts, that it was safe to unbuckle your seatbelt and resume walking around the cabin, guess again. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, taking a page from the Paulists, used the one-day “moneybomb” technique to good effect, raking in $1.1 million and basically ensuring he’ll be able to stay on the air up until Election Day. Brown has yet another TV spot up on the air, in response to Coakley’s first negative ad; Brown‘s firing back with the ol’ “tsk, tsk on you for going negative” approach. Between the contradictory polls, Brown’s fundraising, and other signs of life (like a Boston Herald endorsement for Brown – although that’s not a surprise from the conservative Herald), the Beltway Dems have decided to leave nothing to chance, and are getting more involved, as the DNC is sending in some ground troops, and the DSCC is ponying up for $567K for more ad time for Coakley – meaning, in its own way, that the GOP already won a moral victory here by getting the DSCC to pry open its checkbook.

• NH-Sen: I don’t know if anyone really cares one lick about what former Vice-President Dan Quayle is up to these days, but he popped up long enough to endorse Ovide Lamontagne in the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, wealthy businessman Bill Binnie is tapping his own personal money to get a head start on the ad wars in the NH primary, with an introductory bio spot.

• NV-Sen: For a while there, it was looking like Harry Reid was even starting to have some trouble within his caucus, as Russ Feingold publicly criticized Reid yesterday over his insensitive language regarding Barack Obama, wondering out loud if he should continue as Majority Leader. Feingold dialed it back a little today, though, saying that he supports Reid staying on it that role. With Chris Cillizza today joining many other pundits in wondering if the fork is ready to be stuck in Reid, there comes word (buried in a longer Politico story), via anonymous sources, of a “a whisper campaign in Nevada that it would be possible for him to step aside and find someone else who could win.”

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is beating the Senate drum a little louder today, saying in a New York Post (interesting choice of venue) that he’s “strongly considering” the race. In an interview with Chris Mathews, he also had his version of the “Ich bin ein Berliner” moment, enunciating that “I am a New Yorker, I am a New Yorker.” (Although I believe, in the local dialect, that’s pronounced “Hey! I’m a fuggin’ New Yorker here already, now step off!”)

• MA-Gov (pdf): Hot on the heels of the MA-Gov poll from the Boston Globe comes another one from PPP, part of its MA-Sen sample. Their sample finds incumbent Dem Deval Patrick in slightly worse position than the Globe (with an awful 22/59 approval), although he’s still in the lead. Interestingly, this poll also sees the Republicans in much better shape than the Globe did, as independent candidate Tim Cahill slouches into third place here. Patrick leads GOPer Charlie Baker and Cahill 29-27-21, while in a Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos three-way, Cahill moves into second with a 28-25-21 outcome. (This certainly points to the composition difference between the PPP sample, which may have overweighted Republicans, and the Globe/UNH sample, which may have overweighted Democrats. The Senate special election results may give us a clue which of these MA-Gov polls is closer.) PPP also tested Democratic SoS William Galvin as a replacement for Patrick, finding little difference, with a 26-26-18 race among Galvin, Baker, and Cahill, and a 26-22-20 race among Galvin, Cahill, and Mihos.

• MN-Gov: The Republican field in the Minnesota governor’s race may actually be dwindling down into the single digits, as things sort themselves out. Former Auditor Pat Anderson is dropping her gubernatorial bid, and instead is looking at a return to her old job. She’ll be running against Democratic incumbent Rebecca Otto, who unseated Anderson in 2006.

• RI-Gov: Things are getting pretty dire for the Reupblicans in Rhode Island, where former Cranston mayor (and 2006 Senate primary candidate) Stephen Laffey decided for the second time that he isn’t going to run for Governor. With businessman Rory Smith’s dropout, the GOP still has nobody here, although salvation may be coming in the form of current Gov. Don Carcieri’s communications director, John Robitaille, who is filling the gap by filing as a candidate. (Robitaille’s only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2006.) Meanwhile, Josh Goodman has been wondering if independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, while a former Republican, might actually run to the left of the Democrat in this race (telegraphed by his statements on possible tax hikes). A local consultant tells Goodman that Chafee may in fact get labor backing on the race, perhaps depending on which Dem Chafee faces. (Chafee might get labor support if he’s against Treasurer Frank Caprio, although the more liberal AG Patrick Lynch would probably have a lock on labor support if he survives the Dem primary.)

• LA-02: The prospect is lessening for a free-for-all Democratic primary in New Orleans for what’s likely to be an easy race to defeat GOP incumbent Rep. Joe Cao. State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to be locking down establishment support as a consensus candidate here, and that was underscored by an endorsement from former Sen. John Breaux. Fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta is still in the primary, but state Rep. Karen Carter Peterson (who took Bill Jefferson to a runoff in 2006) is running for state Senate instead of LA-02, and none of Richmond’s 2008 primary opponents seem to be getting in the race.

• PA-06: After earlier vows that he wouldn’t get out the GOP primary in the 6th despite the re-entry of incumbent Rep. Jim Gerlach, yesterday state Rep. Curt Schroder saw the fundraising-related handwriting on the wall and got out of the race. With former Revenue Secretary Howard Cohen and Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Scott Zelov already having stood down, that leaves only self-funder Steven Welch and several some-dudes in Gerlach’s way.  

• RI-01: Maybe he’s been comparing notes with Jim Traficant on how to restart your political career after spending several years in prison. Republican former Providence mayor Buddy Cianci, fresh off of four and a half years in jail over criminal acts while mayor, is now considering a challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy.

• VA-09: Despite having dodged a bullet with state Del. Terry Kilgore deciding against a run, Rep. Rick Boucher may still have to avoid some incoming fire in November. The state House’s majority leader, Morgan Griffith, said he’s “considering” the race and may get in if someone stronger doesn’t. (Since the only other person who’s probably stronger is state Sen. William Wampler Jr., and it doesn’t sound like he’ll run in the 9th, as he’s probably banking on a Republican takeover of the state Senate soon, in which case he’d become Finance chair, it may in fact fall to Griffith.) Griffith does have one slight problem: he doesn’t live in the 9th, although he’s apparently within walking distance of the district lines.

• FL-CFO: Florida Democrats finally found a CFO candidate to help round out their slate of candidates: former state Rep. Loranne Ausley, who decided on a CFO run and ended her state Senate bid. The bigger implication is that state Sen. Al Lawson – who’s flirted off and on with a CFO bid – is probably staying for good in the FL-02 primary now. (Interestingly, Ausley, like Lawson, hails from the Tallahassee area.)

• OH-Auditor: Buzz in Ohio is that incumbent Mary Taylor (the only statewide Republican right now) is going to drop a bid for another term as Auditor and run as John Kasich’s running mate for Lt. Governor instead. This probably strengthens Kasich’s bid against incumbent Dem Ted Strickland… but an open Auditor seat is also good news for the Dems, as Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper was already running a strong race against Taylor. Remember that the Auditor is one of the seats on Ohio’s state legislative redistricting board, so an Auditor pickup would compensate there for a loss at Governor or SoS (but not both).

• MT-St. Sen.: The Missoulian has a very early look at prospects in the state legislature in Montana. Because of the open seat situation in the Senate, Democrats might have a shot at retaking that body (the GOP controls 27-23). Of the 25 seats up this year, 16 are held by Republicans and 9 by Democrats, with a total of 15 of the 25 being open seats.

• VA-St. Sen.: Two special elections are on tap for tonight, one of which is very interesting. The 37th, a swingy area in suburban Fairfax County, was left vacant by new Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli; it’s being contested by Democratic Del. Dave Marsden and Republican former Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt. There are echoes of the gubernatorial race here, as Marsden is running a moderate-enough campaign that he may be at risk of losing the base’s interest, while Hunt is trying to downplay controversial social conservative remarks from his past. Hunt has an internal poll showing him up, and Dem enthusiasm may still be down thanks to the post-Creigh Deeds hangover, so the GOP seems poised to eke this one out, helping them to keep holding the Dems to a narrow 21-19 edge in the Senate. The other race is in the solid-red 8th in Virginia Beach, where GOP businessman Jeff McWaters should have little problem beating Democratic Bill Fleming to replace Republican Ken Stolle, who just became Virginia Beach Sheriff.

• NRCC: The NRCC bumped up four more challengers in their “Young Guns” framework today, most prominently a move to “Contender” (the 2nd of three tiers) for Jim Renacci, challenging Rep. John Boccieri in OH-16. Also entering at the lowest level (“On the Radar”) are former FBI agent Mike Grimm, running in NY-13, state Sen. Dan Debicella, running in CT-04, and state Rep. John Loughlin, running in RI-01 against Rep. Patrick Kennedy. That last entry may seem like the longest of long shots; it may in fact be more of a deterrent by the NRCC to keep Buddy Cianci (see above) from running here, and the accompanying bad PR that would go with that.

• Redistricting: Martin Frost’s former CoS, Matt Angle, is the center of Democratic efforts to un-gerrymander Texas’s House map after the 2010 census. Roll Call looks in depth at how he’s built a complex fundraising network that’s primarily aimed at Democratic gains in the state House (where they are down only 77-73), so Dems can get a better share of the four seats Texas is expected to add.

• Grant money: People with a professional interest in studying Congress might want to apply for research grants available from the Dirksen Congressional Center. It sounds particularly oriented toward graduate students and fellows, but I’m sure some of SSP’s readership fits that bill.

• MO-Sen: Law professor Tom Schweich has publicly floated running for the Missouri GOP Senate nomination. Schweich used to be John Danforth’s chief of staff and was Ambassador for counternarcotics in Afghanistan in the Bush administration. Interestingly, the main motivation for his run that he’s putting out there is the fear (nay, likelihood) that Roy Blunt would lose the general election and that he (as sort of a Danforth proxy) offers a more appealing figure.

• VA-Gov: Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, who’s been demonstrating a lot of momentum in the polls lately, got another big boost: he picked up the endorsement of the SEIU today.

• NM-Gov: New Mexico’s only current statewide Republican elected official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, was a rumored gubernatorial candidate, especially since he’s term-limited out of his current job. In an indication of how popular the GOP brand is in New Mexico right now, Lyons decided to pass on the open seat race, instead running for an open position on New Mexico’s Public Regulation Commission.

• FL-Gov: I hadn’t even considered, with Charlie Crist bolting from Tallahassee, that Jeb! Bush might seek a return engagement as governor. After a Draft Jeb website popped up, Bush politely declined, saying that he will instead “continue to play a constructive role in the future of the Republican Party.”

• OH-Auditor: David Pepper (D), a Hamilton Co. Commissioner (and former Cinci Councilor/Cinci mayoral candidate who lost by a hair in 2005) is going to run against Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor (R). This is a crucial office because it controls a seat on the Ohio Reapportionment Board (which draws state legislative seats) and the GOP will be making a serious run at the open Secretary of State position that Jennifer Brunner is vacating (which also determines a seat on the board). Taylor says that she will announce whether she’ll run for re-election or in the GOP primary against Rob Portman for Senate later this week. (J)

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta has been acting like a candidate for a long time, but finally had his official kickoff event yesterday. Guinta hit every note in the libertarian book, singing the praises of tea baggers, criticizing the stimulus package, and saying that EFCA is “blatantly against” New Hampshire’s “live free or die” mentality.

• IL-06: Lost in the IL-Sen shuffle is Rep. Peter Roskam, who had occasionally been mentioned as a candidate for that (or governor). Roskam says it’s “increasingly less likely” that he’ll run for higher office, and seek to stay put instead.

• NRCC: The NRCC has launched a new wave of radio ads against theoretically vulnerable Dems in nine districts, still harping on the stimulus package, trying to tie them to John Murtha and his “airport for no one” (riffing on the “bridge to nowhere,” I suppose). Targets were Vic Snyder (AR-02), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Harry Teague (NM-02), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL).

• Mayors: Yet more mayoral elections in the news. Today, it’s Omaha, where there’s a faceoff between Democrat Jim Suttle and Republican Hal Daub (a former mayor and former Representative) to replaced retiring Dem mayor Mike Fahey. A recent poll had Daub up 42-39, but there may be a Democratic trend at work in Omaha (as seen in Obama’s victory in NE-02).