Tag: IL-10

again, the most important news is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 10th congressional district, the ballot positions for the primary election are:

Daniel J. Seals

Jay K. Footlik

only dan seals completed the voter guide question.  his response notes:

After a short 11-month campaign and a lot of hard work, Dan shocked the pundits and incumbent Mark Kirk by winning 47 percent in the election. Dan is vying for the seat again in 2008, and this time with even more support.

the financial disclosure reports are out.  seals reports a healthy “quarter:”

Total Contributions

Qtr: $329,731.01

Tot: $904,762.27

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $199,646.21

Tot: $383,183.77

CoH: $627167.58

footlik’s report confirms what people are seeing on the ground:

Total Contributions

Qtr: $133,433.08

Tot: $422,308.08

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $414,415.88

Tot: $480,341.28

CoH: $133,351.09

the saddest thing is, despite footlik’s considerable drop-off in donations, he still managed to raise in the 4th quarter pretty much what john laesch raised in an entire year.

being newspaper endorsement season, endorsements lead the news in this race, too.  seals has swept these: he got the pioneer press endorsement, the daily herald endorsement as well as the chicago tribune’s:

Seals gets the edge, based on a better grasp of local issues and concerns. He is endorsed.

the sun-times endorsement was more expansive:

Seals our choice in the 10th District

Democratic voters in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District on Chicago’s North Shore should consider themselves lucky.

Two strong candidates are running in the Feb. 5 primary, vying for the chance to take on Republican incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running unopposed.

[…]

But the endorsement goes to Seals, who has significantly more local support than Footlik. We like his well-rounded background, including an international economics master’s degree, fluency in Japanese and a stint working for the federal government in Washington.

He also has an MBA and worked as director of marketing at GE Capital, experiences we hope prove helpful in national economic matters. He is the son of former Chicago Bears guard George Seals and a social worker.

Several of Seals’ policy ideas are more fleshed out than Footlik’s, particularly on the economy and immigration reform, including a push for Mexico to do more to control the flow of immigrants and boost its own economy.

Seals also has the best chance to defeat Kirk.

jay did get another endorsement that went last time to dan seals, that of the jewish political alliance of illinois.  dan, otoh, got dick durbin’s endorsement again.  durbin noted, as reported by the sun-times:

“If Dan Seals were not the candidate, Jay would be a very interesting choice,” Durbin said. “But Dan has been battle-tested. He knows the district inside and out. His opponent does not have that kind of experience.”

the chicago tribune used this quote:

“I think he’s one of our strongest congressional candidates in the country, and he proved it last time,” Durbin said. “He came very close, and I think he deserves another chance at it. I think he’s battle-tested and I’m happy to support his candidacy.”

the journal also covered durbin’s endorsement of seals.

chicago public radio covered the race.  the chicago tribune noted that the difference in name recognition may be the biggest difference between footlik and seals.  the ap story observes that our economic difficulties is of great concern even in illinois’ wealthiest congressional district.

the debates between footlik and seals got more attention.  the 10th dems convention got coverage, as well, with a seals’ slant here and here.  seals got 180 votes in the straw poll while footlik received 44 votes.  this margin, you might remember, reflects the same margin found in seals’ internal poll.  and these are democratic activists — all of whom were likely to be aware, at least, of footlik’s candidacy.

if you noticed, these roundups have a specific format.  the first section is basically the news reported by the mainstream media.  the second section i call, what’s new.  this is the segment were i talk about the blogs and websites, etc.  skokie talk, a website for jay’s hometown of skokie (in the 9th CD represented by jan schakowsky) notes this good news for jay:

Footlik currently lives in Buffalo Grove with his wife and daughter. He’s expecting another daughter in February.

congratulations, jay.  i’m sure i speak for many people when i say that.

jta, a jewish news service, has increased it’s coverage of this race dramatically.  it now has a reporter on the ground (jacob berkman).  it reports footlik’s charges about dan’s position at northwestern, about footlik’s “jewish credentials,” how some were offended by footlik’s humor and about how much the footlik-seals matchup mirrors obama and hillary.  the latter write-up was called by archpundit a good overview:

My read is that Jay is a great guy and a good candidate, but given Seals is well liked by Democrats in the District and most understand you need to run twice to win, most of the reasons for supporting Jay aren’t catching with people. Jay’s campaign would argue he’s stronger in a general, but I’m not sure that the greater burden of building up name recognition wouldn’t make it just as difficult. Last time, it was a seven point difference with virtually no national help for Dan.

I like Jay and would like to see him run for something another time, but I don’t see a compelling case as to why Seals shouldn’t get a second shot given how well he did without national support last time.

it’s obvious that footlik made a valiant effort, and he clearly has tremendous political talent.  i’m pretty critical of “policy wonks,” just because i’ve had to deal with the frustrations that voters have trying to understand them.

ellen’s 10th CD blog continues to be the leader in coverage of this race.  she live blogged the lwv debate in arlington heights, covered a meet and greet for seals the next day, attended the durbin endorsement, live blogged the 10th dems convention, reported the straw poll results, noted the cpr story and broke the 21st century dems’ endorsement of seals.

these two campaigns are revving up towards election day.  the seals campaign reports that:

Voters are responding enthusiastically to Dan’s message of bringing wholesale change to Washington. On issues like the war, healthcare, and the economy, they are ready for a new direction.

Dan’s message is (and has always been) that it’s time for a change in the course of our country and the way business is done in Washington.

it’s difficult for me to see how footlik pulls this out, but what i will be looking at when the election returns come in is whether footlik is able to win the dominant jewish areas in the district (highland park, glencoe, buffalo grove).  what i want to test is whether jay’s message that he would do much better against kirk resonates in that community.  if jay wins these areas, it would signal that dan has some work to do to strengthen his position among jewish voters.

this race hasn’t turned out to be as heated as i feared or as competitive as i thought possible.  in the end, democrats in the 10th seem satisfied with the leader they recruited in 2006 to beat mark kirk.  this will be the final IL-10th roundup, not because there won’t be more news, but because it’s increasingly apparent this one has been decided…

this race isn’t generating as much coverage as the others, simply because it is turning out to be not much of a race.  the endorsement interview at the chicago tribune can be found here:

if you watch this video, which was ended abruptly where others were extended, the interviewer asks jay footlik the question that is on everyone’s mind: why are you running, and “risk the possibility of perhaps splitting sensibilities among democrats when he (seals) came so close last time?”  it’s the question on many democrat’s minds in the tenth.

mark kirk’s supporters would like this to be more of a race.  i suspect footlik’s supporters would, too.  but we’re just not hearing it on the ground.  footlik’s name recognition still seems to be problematic, and it doesn’t appear that dan seals will have to spend as much money to beat footlik as i’d wager they planned to spend.

the tribune covered the session of the video above, noting:

The two Democrats seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) from his North Shore seat clashed on the Middle East and where they live Tuesday in their first meeting of the campaign season.

Former White House adviser Jay Footlik criticized Democratic primary opponent Dan Seals for saying during his previous congressional run that he would support “peace” in a conflict between Iran and Israel.

[…]

Footlik, who runs a homeland security consulting business, said he currently resides in Buffalo Grove.

Seals then got Footlik to admit he’s only renting a house in the district.

footlik, who likes to tell his audience that he started his career as “the cute kid,” played it cute about the residency issue:

Jay Footlik, a Democratic candidate for Congress in the North Suburban 10th District, sent out a map this week showing four houses for sale in the district under $400,000 in case his opponent in the Democratic primary, Dan Seals, wants to buy one.

this stunt would have been more cute if footlik’s wife hadn’t told people they were planning on buying a house in the 10th congressional district.  it makes you wonder if the kirk campaign has an office pool for when footlik returns to his home within the beltway.

the daily herald also wrote about their endorsement session:

Democratic congressional candidate Dan Seals says lobbyists can’t change Washington, but opponent Jay Footlik says that neither can neophytes.

“I’ve already delivered real results,” Footlik argued, referring to his work as a security consultant, Middle East policy adviser and lobbyist for foreign interests. “I have been involved in trying to find solutions.”

But business consultant Seals argues Footlik doesn’t have the kind of experience voters want.

“If you are going to deliver change, I don’t think you can do that as a lobbyist,” said the Wilmette resident.

this has been a busy week for the two campaigns in the 10th.  three debates were scheduled, one remaining for tomorrow night (lwv forum at the arlington heights library).  several papers covered last night’s exchange.  in a spirited exchange of the two candidates, they went deep into local issues.  on transportation issues, seals wants to utilize the lake to its fullest extent as a transportation system while footlik supports expanding o’hare and getting the municipalities to cooperate on roads.  on the environment, seals thinks the lake is our greatest resource and must be protected.  he used the recent bp amoco fiasco as just one example.  footlik agrees that while kirk makes a appearance about bp, he’s done nothing.  seals also noted that he would be willing to sign on for more punitive action against those companies that discriminate.  

both candidates were asked what 2 committees and what 2 pieces of legislation would you like.  seals said he wants to sit on the education and armed forces committees and would sponsor troops returning in a year.  footlik said he wants to sit on the transportation and foreign affairs committees.  press coverage of the debate had one write:

Seals, a business consultant at Northwestern University said he is running to change Washington, D.C.

“We need to change healthcare, the war in Iraq, the deficit and business overall in Washington,” said Seals.

Seals said he believes the government is putting freedom at odds with security when it comes to electronic surveillance and other methods used by Homeland Security.

“Wire tapping, the eavesdropping, and the torture our troops are putting on some of the prisoners are just some examples that are having an opposite effect on security,” Seals said. “We need to focus on police work and good intelligence by addressing border issues and reading security checks.”

Footlik said the country needs to reach out to the Muslim world and communicate in a more effective way.

“There are great solutions for anti-terrorism laws, but it starts with first responders like police and fire back home,” said Footlik.

Back home, Seals believes Congress should pass the Children’s Health and Medicare Protection Act, because children “deserve our care,” he said.

there were other stories about the endorsements the two are getting.  the news sun notes that footlik got the endorsement of the lake county federation of teachers while seals won the endorsement of the IFT’s northwest suburban teachers union.  the tribune wrote about the switch to footlik, while the pioneer press said that “Jay Footlik believes his campaign is gaining momentum with the endorsement of two major teachers’ unions.”

otoh, one of footlik’s mailers got a different reaction than his campaign probably wanted.  Footlik mailing draws fire was a headline in the winnetka talk:

The Footlik campaign says the ad was meant to talk about his faith in a humorous way, and the work he has done on issues important to the Jewish community and in promoting Middle East peace.

But others did not find the mailing so funny.

“I was just offended by the fact that whole piece had nothing to do with the issues,” said Buffalo Grove resident Jon Altenberg, who is Jewish. “The whole piece is based on the fact he’s Jewish. I’m Jewish, and I don’t think the fact that someone’s Jewish should have any relevance on whether he gets my vote or not.”

In a Letter to the Editor, Altenberg said the mailing “uses Jewish stereotypes and slang to try to insinuate that Jay Footlik is the only candidate to vote for simply because he has a Jewish surname.”

“If anybody who was not Jewish used the same terms, I think it would be seen as offensive,” he said.

Altenberg said he’s talked to neighbors who are not Jewish and they indicated they had not received the mailing.

sun times columnist neil steinberg called the mailer pandering to the northshore’s jewish voters.  it appears, though, that reaction to the mailer broke on generational lines, with older jewish voters finding it as humorous as it was intended.

in the ‘what’s new’ department, the seals campaign reports:

A recent poll by Garin-Hart-Yang Research showed Dan leading his primary opponent 58-10

the campaign also notes that “Dan was endorsed by the Pioneer Press on Thursday, January 10.”  seals has won the “endorsement race,” posting new endorsements by

* AFL-CIO

* Asian American Action Fund of Greater Chicago

* Communications Workers of America

* International Association of Machinists

* International Brotherhood of Boilermakers

* Illinois Federation of Teachers- Northwest Suburban Teachers Union Local 1211

* Independent Voters of Illinois-IPO

* International Longshoreman’s Association

* Sheet Metal Workers International Association

* United Auto Workers

* United Food and Commercial Workers

* United Transportation Union

footlik got some good blog support from the teacher’s union endorsement.  his home town bulletin board had a nice appeal:

Niles North alumnus Jay Footlik is running for Congress. Those of us who are Skokie residents, including Jay’s mom, can’t vote for him, because we living in the 9th congressional district. This doesn’t mean we can’t help.

a volunteer from miami university had a really sweet post about her experience helping on footlik’s campaign and what it means.  otoh, local blogstar, ellen gill asked fellow voters if they had received on the calls talked about in that volunteer’s post.

supporters of dan seals put up a considerable amount of video in the last month.  one of these week’s debate had two questions posted, one on alternative energy and another on who’s his political role model.  seals’ wilmette coffee in december was also posted, part one is here, part two is here and the final segment is here.  the seals campaign has this video, Get to Know Dan!  and video from the yearlykos future leader’s forum, where seals was a panelist, is now online.  

there’s a lot of stuff coming up.  jay footlik now has an events section on his website, although the calendar doesn’t seem to be for the general public (there’s no address listed for each item).  the seals campaign continues to update it’s calendar page.  and the league of women voters debate is tomorrow at the arlington heights library.

seals’ financial picture continues to get brighter.  his actblue page shows he’s raised $258,784 from 1,093 donors across actblue.  footlik still hasn’t raised a dime on actblue.  full fund-raising numbers aren’t due in illinois until after the 16th.

footlik’s prospects don’t look that good.  it’s not just the poll numbers; voters still don’t know who footlik is, and when they do, they wonder — just like the tribune interviewer — why he’s running.  otoh, footlik’s challenge has forced the seals’ campaign to organize earlier, and knock on more doors than they probably would have otherwise.  as seals turns his attention to unifying democrats in the 10th around his candidacy, and then a more potent challenge against mark kirk, he continues to be a down to earth, charismatic agent for change.

perhaps the most frequent question about the race for the democratic nomination for congress in the 10th congressional district — what some consider to be “the biggest congressional race next year in Illinois” — is why is there a primary?  lynn sweet predicts:

The contest will be one of the most expensive in the nation. Third quarter fund-raising reports gives Seals $498,872 cash on hand; Footlik, making his first run for office, has a $414,018 warchest. The winner faces Kirk, who has stockpiled $1.5 million and has no primary opponent.

“The issue here,” carol marin says, “is whether the battle between Seals and Footlik will splinter Jewish voters, sap each campaign of cash and strength in the primary, and give Kirk the advantage he needs to capture a fifth term.”

while these sentiments may continue to be frequently voiced about this race, it isn’t an interesting lens through which to view the race because there is a primary.  instead, i find it more interesting to note that this election really is a classic battle between two schools of thought: the “perfect candidate” model — behind which illinois machine democrats are a prime driving force — and the grassroots model.

jay footlik presents himself to the voters in the mold of the “perfect candidate” for the 10th: he’s jewish, he’s connected to democratic royalty, he has a strong connection to israel, and he promises to peal off jewish supporters of mark kirk.  according to this analysis, a jewish democrat is the only candidate who can defeat mark kirk because they are the only opponent who can neutralize the advantage kirk has (or is perceived to have) with regard to the issue of israel.  some estimate that up to 20% of the 10th is jewish.

the problem with this proposition is that every candidate who ran against mark kirk before dan seals was a jewish democrat — and they all lost.  and it ignores the fact that, regardless of who runs, kirk will make an issue out of his strong support of israel and use it as a wedge issue.  regardless of who runs.

the footlik campaign has also tried to draw the contrast that jay has more experience in government than his democratic opponent.  this might be a strong contrast if mark kirk didn’t have more experience in government than jay footlik.  if experience is the frame under which this campaign is fought, kirk wins.  it is kirk’s experience as (former congressman) john porter’s chief of staff, kirk’s predecessor, that has kept him in office.  porter was, and continues to be, popular among the voters of the 10th, and kirk has won by brandishing his close connection to porter.

the other thing that footlik seems to be hanging his hat on is, “dan seals is likeable, but he didn’t get it done last time.”  since footlik lived in d.c. in 2006, he is aware of the national trend (well, sorta) of the blue wave in 2006 (at least in new york, pennsylvania, ohio, florida, indiana, arizona, new hampshire, connecticutt, iowa and minnesota).  and because he had no ties to the il-10th in 2006, he’s clearly unaware that topinka (republican gubernatorial candidate) and peraica (republican cook county president candidate) won in the district.  not exactly a good year — let alone great year — for democrats in the 10th.  but that’s what happens when you parachute into the state, even if you are perceived (by some) as the perfect candidate for the district.

given the fact that footlik is new to the district, he’s had to start his media campaign early.  he’s already mailed twice into the district (local republican blog team america has the mailers: first and second).  footlik has also made two cable buys in at least some areas of the 10th, value and square.  footlik has been meeting with influentials in the 10th privately, but has skipped significant local political events.

footlik’s almost invisible campaign contrasts significantly with the grassroots-driven, netroots favored campaign of dan seals.  named a future leader for yearlykos, supported nationally by the major blogs through their blue majority project, as well as by local bloggers.  seals benefits significantly from the commitment made by the grassroots, significantly through the tenth dems — the group that helped recruit him to run for congress in the tenth — to turn the tenth blue.  an innovative grassroots organization, lead by former congressional candidate lauren beth gash, the tenth dems has taken the lead in identifying and training local democratic activists, many (if not most) who participate in seals’ campaign.  add to that the support of the local democratic infrastructure, whether jan schakowsky to the south or melissa bean to the north and west and senators obama and durbin, as well as the township democratic organizations, and you can see why the seals campaign is building a strong organization capable of winning in this highly competitive swing district.

often compared to barack obama by voters and contributors, seals has offered a comprehensive vision for change in the tenth.  his campaign has systematically gone about and identified its weaknesses from 2006 and set about to correct them.  they are creating a rather extensive precinct organization and providing advanced training for their precinct captains.  one result of this approach can be found in the 4,416 signatures they collected on seals’ nominating petitions.  the seals campaign promises an even more aggressive voter outreach effort than implemented in 2006.

the seals campaign combines this grassroots approach with traditional campaigning.  they’ve conducted a benchmark poll for the primary, giving seals “a commanding lead:”

Seals leads Footlik 58 percent to 6 percent in the poll, which surveyed 404 likely primary voters. It also shows Seals with a 69-24 advantage in name recognition.

rather extensive voter contact and media programs are planned, incorporating the results of that poll.  

while jay footlik sports one endorsement so far, dan seals has garnered every democratic official in the tenth, as well as former 10th congressman abner mikva, congresswoman schakowsky and  congressman jim clyburn.  add to that the union powerhouses, seiu and afscme, illinois progressive leader citizen action-illinois and the two democratic township organizations which have endorsed so far, and you get an idea of seals’ strength in the primary.

this strength has been borne out by the results of the two candidates’ fundraising in the district.  footlik has motivated 16 locals to contribute to his campaign, getting about 6% of his money from the 10th.  seals, otoh, got more than 80% locally.  seals’ fundraising is so impressive, he’s on the top ten list of non-incumbents running this time.  seals’ support is so strong locally that we’ve seen reports of petition collectors pretending to be passing for seals in order to get signatures for footlik.  

you can really see the difference on the ground.  in contrast to reports of paid circulators for footlik, seals had 76 volunteer petition circulators who collected his 4,416 signatures.  seals is conducting numerous grassroots events out of their lake cook plaza office (2nd fl professional offices, 405 lake cook road; within walking distance to lake cook metra Station), including field trainings (two thus far), phone banking, canvassing and several different types of outreach events (house parties, coffees, meet & greets).  over 100 people attended a seals event last wednesday night at pinstripes in northbrook.  they are continuing to phone bank nightly, and have canvassing scheduled every saturday (meet at office at 12:00 p.m.), as well as outreach events throughout the district.  ongoing events are listed on the seals calendar.

i made repeated efforts to reach the footlik campaign to ask these same questions (in fact, i’ll pose the questions i asked of all the congressional campaigns in the comments), but they never got back to me.  that is why this diary, planned for friday, wasn’t posted until now.  even the first question (do you have a campaign headquarters and where) couldn’t be answered by the person who answered the phone.  you may have observed that footlik’s campaign office address isn’t listed on their website, but this is in keeping with the secretive nature of their whole campaign.  (i had told jay that i would be doing this series at yearlykos and he said they were eager to participate.)

there is an obvious answer to the most frequent question, which was posed in the opening paragraph.  the reason that there’s a primary is that this seat is ready to turn blue.  it’s got a pvi of 3.5, and the biggest difference between 2008 and 2006 is that there will be a popular democrat running for president — perhaps even barack obama, who endorsed seals in 2006.  illinoisians know how unpopular governor blagojevich was (and is), and the circumstances surrounding the elevation of todd stroger as the democratic candidate for cook county board president won’t be repeated.

but it’s more than that.  in 2006, seals expected to win the parts of the 10th in cook county — but didn’t.  the expected edge in new trier never appeared, minority voting in waukegan and north chicago was suppressed, and the western half of the 10th congressional district went decidedly for kirk.  dan seals and his campaign is not only battle hardened, but understands the complexities of the tenth gained by experience in an entire election cycle.  only seals has seen kirk’s 72-hour project (really, final week push) that mobilized more volunteers than had been seen on kirk’s behalf before.  but the biggest difference between 2006 and 2008 is that there was still doubt that dan could win in 2006, but there’s real confidence that if they can minimize their weaknesses, dan seals can beat mark kirk in 2008.

the movement of the middle east towards peace can only help.  if israel does not feel threatened, dan seals is the biggest beneficiary.  kirk’s voicing of a mortal threat to israel to peel away jewish democrats from the democratic candidate (regardless of who it is) will be senseless if their no perception of mortal threat exists.  the dynamics of the 10th in 2008 is dramatically different than in 2006, and these favor dan seals…

While it may not even be 2008 yet, here’s a sampling of some of the congressional campaign ads currently on the air across the nation:

NY-20: Sandy Treadwell (R)	IL-14: Bill Foster (D)
OH-05: Robin Weirauch (D)	IL-10: Jay Footlik (D)

Any other ads that we missed? Feel free to post ’em in the comments.

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected — especially Rep. Ferguson’s in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The situation is made much worse for Republicans by the awful financial situation they are in. As of the end of October, the NRCC is still a million in debt, while the DCCC has 27 million dollars. That’s nearly a 30 million dollar gap, which will have a significant impact on next year’s results. The RNC will have to concentrate on the presidential elections and will have a limited ability to help the NRCC out. This means that the DCCC has the ability to play offense in many seats, expand the map, and protect its own seats — while the Republicans will probably end up having to concede some of their open seat and choose which select Democratic seats they are going after.

As a result, many of the freshmen Democrats who looked very vulnerable last year are likely to survive, though the GOP will no doubt be able to claim some of its very conservative seats back, starting with FL-16 and TX-22; they also got some good news this month when the Democratic challenger in MT-AL withdrew, as unpopular Rep. Cubin retired in Wyoming, and as they made Indiana’s 7th district much more competitive. But six of the seven race that are rated more vulnerable this month are Republican, underscoring the steady stream of bad news for the GOP.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable: CT-2, NY-19, WY-AL
  
• More vulnerable: AK-AL, IL-06, IL-11, IN-07, KY-02, NJ-07, OH-05
  

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 7-12 seats.

The October ratings are available here.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

• AZ-1 (Open)
  
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Republicans might finally be getting what they want here, as some rumors are starting to circulate that ethically (very) challenged Doolittle might be finally ready to announce his retirement. If he does, this race will significantly drop down the rankings; but if Doolittle stays in the race, this is a sure a pick-up for the Democrats’ Brown.
  
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): The filing deadline has already passed in Illinois (it’s the first in the country), and Republicans did not manage to recruit a top-tier candidate. They are fielding the Mayor of New Lenox and an ex-Bush White House official; both could be good candidates and make the race competitive, but Democrats have to be considered slightly favored since they convinced a reluctant Debbie Halvorson, the State Majority Leader, to run.
  
• NM-1 (Open): 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid announced she would not run again, making Albuquerque councilman Heinrich the likely Democratic nominee. Republicans are confident that their nominee, sheriff White, is strong and will run much stronger than other Republicans would. If that is confirmed by independent indicators and polls, the race will be downgraded, but the fact that the district is naturally competitive (it narrowly went for Kerry in 2004) combined with the sour national environment for Republicans makes Heinrich the early favorite.
  
• OH-15 (Open): The GOP finally got some much needed good news in this race. Democrats had united behind their 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy, but all Republicans who might have made this race competitive declined to run one after another, making this the top pick-up opportunity in the country for Democrats. But the GOP finally convinced a strong candidate who had initially passed on the race to get in: state Senator Steve Strivers. They ensured that the race remains competitive; but given that OH-15 is very tight in the first place, that the environment is toxic for the GOP and that Kilroy came within a few thousand votes of unsitting an entranced incumbent in 2006, Democrats are still favored.
  

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (14)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): A new poll shows just how disastrous Young’s approval rating has become as he is involved in a corruption probe that has claimed many other Republican congressmen. Democrats have a few candidates, and an October poll showed former state Senator Ethan Berkowitz leading Young.
  
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): A recent primary poll has Dan Seals crushing Footlik in the Democratic primary for the right to take on Republican Kirk, who sits on a  very competitive district. Seals got 47% in 2006 with the national party paying little attention, but he will receive lots of help from the DCCC this time.
  
• MN-03 (Open):
  
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (open): In the first New Jersey surprise, Rep. Saxton announced he would not run for re-election in early November giving a major opening to Democrats in a district that Bush won by only 3% in 2004. Democrats were already excited about this race before Saxton’s retirement, and they believe that state Senator John Adler is a very strong candidate who will carry the district. Republicans do have a solid bench here though, and are looking to get state Senator Diane Allen in.
  
• NJ-07 (open): Rep. Ferguson’s retirement was perhaps the biggest surprise of this year’s House cycle. He opens up a very competitive district that Bush won with 49% in 2000 and 53% in 2004. Democrats appear united behind state Assemblywoman Linda Stender who came within a point of beating Ferguson in 2006. The GOP is having a harder time at recruitment, as its three top choices (especially Tom Kean Jr.) announced they would not run within a few days of Ferguson’s retirement. Republicans better find a good candidate fast, or they will be looking at a certain Democratic pick-up.
  
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
  
• OH-16 (Open):
  
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
  
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis): Whether or not Tom Davis retires, this race is sure to be very competitive. Davis’s wife Jeannemarie massively lost a re-election race to the state Senate last month in a contest that cost millions of dollars, proving that Davis will have a very tough fight on his hand next year if he runs again in a region that has been rapidly trending their way. If Davis retires (and he was supposed to run for Senate and leave the seat open until about a month ago), this will automatically jump up to the top of the Democratic pick-up list. Does his wife’s loss make him more or less likely to run again?
  
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Democrats are clearly confident they can take Reichert down in a rematch of the 2006 race against Demcorat Burner. They recently filed an FEC complaint over Reichert’s fundraising, hoping to get the incumbent in ethical trouble. They did not manage to tie him quite enough with the GOP brand in 2006.
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IL-8 (Rep. Bean)
• IN-7 (Rep. Carson, upgraded): This is a very Democratic district, that Kerry carried with 58%. But Rep. Carson has had health problems and has rarely been in the House in the past few years — nor has she campaigned very actively. Her 2006 re-election was surprisingly narrow, and Republicans have recruited state Rep. Jon Elrod, who they believe will be the ideal candidate to take down Carson. This race could be an unlikely pick-up for the GOP if Carson runs for re-election; if she retires, it could be easier for Democrats to hold.
  
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill): Rep. Hill and Republican Sodrel are running against each other for the fourth straight time. Voters know both of them at this point, and there is little they can do this early to change the dynamics.
  
• KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
  
• NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter): Republicans are preparing for a primary between ousted 2006 congressman Bradley and the former HHS commissioner; but if Shea-Porter won last year with no money and no national attention, how vulnerable could she be now as an incumbent.
  
• OH-18 (Rep. Space)
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): This race is deemed by many the most vulnerable seat held by a Democrat. But the strongest Republicans passed on the race, giving at least some pause to those who have long predicted Lampson is a one-timer. They might very well be right, but we shall wait until the GOP field yields its nominee to reassess the situation.

The race of the rankings, including all the “lean retention” and “potentially competitive” rated seats, is available here, at Campaign Diaries.

Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Dan Seals (11/5-7, likely primary voters):

Dan Seals (D): 58%
Jay Footlik (D): 6%
Undecided: 36%
MoE: ±5.0%

Nice lead for Seals there.  Undoubtedly, much of this has to do with the great deal of residual name recognition that Seals enjoys from his ’06 campaign (the poll pegs him at 69% name recognition among likely primary voters; Footlik’s at 24%).  Footlik begun running biographical television ads right around the time the poll was conducted, so their impact wasn’t measured here.

Still, with a lead this large, Foolik would have to swamp out Seals in expenditures in order to claim the nomination.  With only three months left to go until the primary, that looks to be a pretty tall order.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

The next addition to the Blue Majority page is Dan Seals, who is running in Illinois’s 10th district against Republican Mark Kirk.  The district is one of the bluest in the country held by a Republican, going for Kerry over Bush in 2004 by 53-47.  Seals ran a hard race in 2006, and had a heart-breaking and narrow loss.  Running for office is incredibly difficult; you must work 14 hour days for months, with almost no income, no sleep, limited family time, and no exercise.  You have to beg for money from anyone you’ve ever met, and you get yelled at by activists on both sides.  Meanwhile, voters are looking to be persuaded that they can trust you, and while your arguments make sense to you and your staff, you can never tell if voters believe you.  It is incredibly difficult, and almost everyone loses their first time out.  A successful political movement helps not just those who win, but those who take risks and lose, because without risk-taking, change cannot happen.  And that’s why we’re in this.  Seals gave up his career, his family life, and his privacy in 2006, and we’re going to make sure that he, like Eric Massa, Darcy Burner, and Charlie Brown, gets to finish the job.

As for Kirk, it’s pretty simple why this guy has to go.  He’s considered a ‘moderate’ Republican by many anonymous strategists in insider publications, because apparently in DC, up is down.  Sometimes he breaks with his party when we don’t need his vote, but the reality is closer to the video above, where Kirk ran away from an Iraq veteran so he wouldn’t have to answer questions about his stance on the war.  The camera man is an AAEI organizer named Josh Lansdale, who also happens to be an Iraq vet.  I wrote this episode up in July.

Kirk likes to portray himself as a moderate Republican, and he even went to the White House earlier this year to talk about Iraq with George Bush.  In fact, The Hill reported that Karl Rove came down on Kirk hard for leaking this ‘confrontation’ to the press, and Kirk has quieted down.

Josh is an organizer for AAEI, and his goal is to stop the war by getting members of Congress to come out on Iraq.  In this case, he went to the event trying to get Kirk to go on the record with what he said in the White House and what his current position is on Iraq.  Does he support a withdrawal?  Does he support timelines?  Where is he on the surge?  People who attended the event said that Kirk was wishy washy, but Josh couldn’t get a direct report.  This episode took place at an event where Kirk keynoted eight local Chambers of Commerce coming together.  Josh had bought a ticket online, but was not allowed to attend, with organizers claiming the event had been sold out as they were selling tickets nearby.  So Josh eventually had to find Kirk out back, with this video camera.

The district, blue and getting bluer, is going to eat Kirk alive on Iraq, and he’s pushing extremely hard to be perceived of as moderate.  He’s even going so far as to propose ‘bipartisan’ solutions with Bush Dog Democrat Dan Lipinski, as Kos noted earlier this month.

The Lipinski-Kirk plan calls for a phased withdrawal similar to the one that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus outlined on Monday. Under the plan, one troop brigade would return to the U.S. in December and three more would be removed in the spring, without replacement. It would provide for troop levels in July 2008 of about 130,000, which is equal to “pre-surge” troop levels.

Got that? We’d simply hit the “reset” button, taking 10 months to get us back to the pre-surge status quo. And somehow, this “bipartisan” bill (which Bush will announce this week anyway) is supposed to be a solution to anything?

Nope, it’s two endangered congressmen — one a Republican, the other a Lieberdem — clinging together for dear life in the face of an unpopular war that they in reality support. Their actions don’t change the facts on the ground (the surge was always unsustainable for the long haul). It does nothing to end a conflict in which a solution is far beyond our grasp.

We’ve already got Lipinski in our cross-hairs, and it’s going to be tough to take down the Chicago Democratic machine.  But wouldn’t it be sweet if our response to Kirk and Lipinski’s bipartisan shill plan to keep troops in Iraq indefinitely was a bipartisan response of getting rid of both of them?

Yes, it would.  Please throw a few coins to Dan Seals for Congress on Blue Majority.

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

Some voices have expressed frustration that the Democratic field to take on Republican Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois' Democratic-leaning 10th District is fractured between rematch-seeker Dan Seals and attorney and former Clinton aide Jay Footlik.  To the extent that Seals and Footlik both been outraised by a tidy sum in the second quarter, money-splitting is certainly a concern, but not an overwhelming one.  After all, fundraising is never a zero-sum game.

Is there a chance that a primary could be a good thing?  If Dan Seals is the nominee (and he has a strong chance, given the goodwill and name recognition that his longshot-turned-competitive 2006 campaign generated), he could emerge an even stronger candidate in the general. 

How do I figure?  In 2006, Seals ran a very competent campaign, hitting Kirk hard on his ties to Bush and the Republican Congress.  The one area of improvement for Seals lies in his Iraq message.  It's not so much a question of substance (Seals has the correct stance: “responsible withdrawal”), but volume.  This Chicago-area district is an expensive media market for any congressional candidate to run in, and Seals therefore had to condense many different themes into the few television spots he did run (see here and here).  As we have argued before, 2008 rematch-seekers should be prepared to reorient their campaign message with a strong stance on Iraq redeployment as the central theme, especially if they spent much of the 2006 campaign hitting on peripherals like prescription drugs, the cost of gasoline, congressional pay raises, et cetera.  Granted, I'm not saying that campaigning on these issues should be eliminated–far from it.  It's just that these should be side dishes to the main course of Iraq.

And I think Dan Seals gets it, especially when I read pieces like this one from Roll Call:

Seals Seeks 'Anti-War' Label in 10th District

Dan Seals recently staked his claim to the “anti-war” label now that he faces a credible challenge for the Democratic nod in the Prairie State's 10th district.

Seals, whose long-shot bid to unseat Rep. Mark Kirk (R) almost was successful last year, technically bashed Kirk for his vote against immediately redeploying troops from Iraq earlier this month. But clearly his shot was intended to also strike Jay Footlik (D), the business consultant who only recently decamped Washington, D.C., to compete with Seals.

“I am the only candidate who has opposed the war from the start and the only one who unequivocally supports a responsible timeline for withdraw,” Seals boasted in a news release.

If Footlik's challenge is inspiring Seals to stake his territory on the left side of the Iraq debate, this primary could actually be doing a favor for Seals in the general election–should he make it that far.

As I stated in my previous diary and numerous comments, I believe the Illinois 10th Congressional district is ripe for a flip.  Mark Kirk has served as the representative for the district since 2000, and while he claims to be a moderate, his record is anything but moderate.  In order to understand why this seat should be a prime target in 2008, it is first important to understand the district and its make up.

The Illinois 10th district covers a significant portion of Lake County in the northeast corner of the state and five townships on the north and northwest sides of Cook County (Cook County is the home to Chicago).  The five communities in Cook County are Elk Grove, Northfield, New Trier (Wilmette, Glencoe & Winnetka), Palatine and Wheeling.  Due to their proximity to the City of Chicago, the Cook County communities actually account for more votes than the Lake County townships (election data from Lake County and Cook County Clerk Websites).

Year	Cook	Cook %	Lake	Lake %
2000	112,117	47%	125,389	53%
2002	105,847	57%	81,064	43%
2004	155,369	56%	121,342	44%
2006	114,754	57%	87,453	43%

More after the flip.

As you can see the Cook County townships represent about 57% of the vote, regardless of whether or not it’s a presidential election.  In 2000, the make-up was exactly the opposite.  Redistricting by the Republican controlled legislature added two Cook County Townships, Palatine and Elk Grove to the district.  These two townships represent just under 10% of the total district vote counts in each of the last three elections and voting trends in those townships approaches 2:1 Republican to Democrat.  Maybe when 2010 rolls around, the now Democratic controlled legislature can remove those townships (into either IL-6 or IL-9), but that doesn’t change the opportunity to pick this seat up.

Now that Mark Kirk has won 4 elections, one might assume his long-term incumbency status provides him ample protection but let’s take a closer look at those elections.

Year	Dem Opponent	Dem %	Kirk %
2000	Gash	49%	51%
2002	Perritt	31%	69%
2004	Goodman	36%	64%
2006	Seals	47%	53%

To put his margins of victory into perspective, here is the money data from the FEC ($ Spent):

Year	Dem Opponent	Dem $k	Kirk $k
2000	Gash	$1,967	$2,030
2002	Perritt	$  473	$1,436
2004	Goodman	$  89	$1,654
2006	Seals	$1,851	$3,475

Based on the weakly funded challenges mounted by Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, we should focus on the 2000 and 2006 races.  In 2000, Lauren Beth Gash was a well recognized, popular state representative with the ability to raise funds in the district.  A quick look at the results shows, she won Lake County, but lost Cook County.

County	Total Votes	Gash %	Kirk %
Cook	112,117	46%	54%
Lake	125,389	51%	49%
Total	237,506	49%	51%

Remember, this race was pre-redistricting, so there was more Democratic balance to Cook County to take advantage of.  In fact, looking at the presidential results from the townships in the district, State Rep. Gash actually underperformed the Gore-Lieberman ticket by 5 percentage points (Gore won those townships 51-48%).

Looking at the 2006 race, Dan Seals saw pretty much the same story, except he barely lost Lake County instead of carrying it like Gash.  Like her, Seals finished way behind in Cook County.

County	Total Votes	Seals %	Kirk %
Cook	114,754	45%	55%
Lake	87,453	49%	51%
Total	202,207	47%	53%

Seals proved to be an excellent fundraiser, especially considering his novice political status and zero name recognition.  Again, a concern is he underperformed the 2004 presidential ticket by 5 percentage points in the Cook County Townships, just like Gash.  But here is the good news (and why we need to target this seat). 

1. Seals had the same Cook County results as Gash, despite the redistricting adding the heavily republican townships of Palatine and Elk Grove. 
2. Kirk had to outspend Seals 2:1 (see above chart on spending) despite Seals lack of name recognition.
3. The DCCC only spent approximately $125,000
4. Kirk minority status will weaken his ability to bring home federal $ to the district.
5. Either Obama (even as a VP candidate) or native daughter Hillary Clinton (she’s from Park Ridge, IL) will energize Illinois Democrats in 2008.
6. Kirk has very little cash on hand left, only $105,000.

I am convinced these are all reasons that are falling in our favor to flip this seat in 2008, and why the DCCC should make this seat a top tier target.  Of course, to make it a race, you need a top tier challenger and I have three candidates that would be great challengers.  Dan Seals would be one.  He can build on his effort from last year, and has proved he can raise money.  He can raise a bunch more if he starts now, and have a sizeable war chest by the time the primary rolls around.  My two other ideal candidates are our two local state senators in the district, Terry Link (ten years in the state senate) and Susan Garrett (4 years).  They both have good name recognition, ties to the communities in both counties and support within the local party.  I am unsure of their fundraising ability, and either one would have to prove their skill in that area to gain top tier target status.

IL-10 has real potential in 2008.  After reading this, I hope you agree.