I’m writing today about Louisiana’s current electorate. I’d like to state my opinion of things here as an on the ground resident of the state. I’m doing this because I continue to see countless out of state Democrats post information, or express opinions on the state that I do not agree with. It’s my opinion that most people are uninformed, so let me hit you with the truth.
Republicans are scared.
You read right. They’re scared here, very deep down I think they’re very worried about their strength in this state. When Democrats here, including Markos, post pieces or comments saying Louisiana is lost, or Jindal has a lock on the Gubernatorial race, or even going as far as saying they don’t see how Landrieu has a chance of being reelected, they are unknowlingly buying into what I believe is actually a Republican misinformation campaign to discourage Democratic activist in and outside of the state from donating or campaigning for Louisiana Democrats. They want to demoralize our state party by making the average Democrat who’s not well informed, here and abroad, think the state’s a lost cause. And the fact that so many out of state Democrats believe this is demoralizing, because we need money from the rest of the coutnry to defend our party against a resurgent LA-GOP. If you buy into that rubbish, then our state does become a lost cause, but it will be becuase national Demcorats have written us off.
That last statement on Landrieu, it just goes beyond ridiculous, and I say this as someone who has a rather firey dislike of Landrieu, and likely won’t vote her in 08.
Republicans are scared because they know that there are only about 200,000 displaced citzens now living outside of the state. And, it would do many kossacks good to know that my informed estimatation, (I have looked high low online for precise figures), of how many citzens were displaced from LA-01 and are still out of state is around fifty thousand. Why is that important? Because LA-01 is one of the premier Republican strongholds in the country, it is the forgotten victim of Katrina, the unnoticed Louisiana Congressional district. I doubt that most people on Dkos know anything about this district. It’s an exurban district squeezed in between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. It’s basically made up of the NO and Baton Rouge exurbs, and it is overwhelmingly Republican, in fact so much so it almost cancels out LA-02, (New Orleans). LA-01 gave Bush a 70-29 margin in 2004, compare that to LA-02, which produced a 75-24 margin, (link for statistics here: http://www.cqpolitic…
The Republicans have also lost a huge bloc of reliable voters in Katrina, weakining them slightly, but Democrats have still been hurt much more by Katrina. But, most of you must just not realize how many people have returned to New Orleans. With the national theme being how NO’s been abandoned, and how it’s in tatters, most people don’t realize that are now over a quarter of a million people living their now. That’s still slightly less than half the pre-Katrina, but progress has been made, though I agree it’s been much too little and too slow. The new city is a majority white, but it’s still just as liberal as it was in 2004, (in 2006, despite the presence of a credilbe Republcian candidate and three Democratic candidates, we ended up with a run off between two Democrats). A strong state Democrat can still expect up to 100,000 votes from New Orleans, depending on how high turn out is.
Now, I haven’t answered the question “How are Republicans scared”, in fact all you’ve read so far would seem to give them reason to be shouting for joy.
They’re scared because their party’s resurgence actually has a weak foundation. If things get a little shaky, the whole thing will fall in on itself. The LA-GOP’s statewide electoral success depends, no, is utterly at the mercy of the fragile, momentary hold they’ve managed to get on the South Louisiana Catholic vote, traditionally the most Democratic portion of the state electorate. We national Democrats cannot allow them to cement that hold becuase it would bring about a generation of Republican dominence and turn Louisiana into Georgia, uh, just the thought gives me chills. Jindal started this alliance with his 2003 run for governor, which I will get back to in a second.
Repubicans are also worried becuase State Democrats have estimated that they can get fifty thousand new Democratic voters in Northern Louisiana by getting black voters in Rapides Parish, (Alexandria-Pineville), Ouachita Parish, (Monroe-West Monroe), and Caddo Parish, (Shreveport), who have traditionally been ignored by the state party because New Orleans’ black voters in the ninth ward were enough for statewide victory, to register to vote and start coming to the polls for Democratic candidates regularly. If they can accomplish this feat over the next few cycles, they have essentially overcome Katrina. Republicans are also worried that overall Democratic trend in Caddo and neighboring Bossier Parishes, (which contain most of the population of Jim McCrery’s district, LA-04) will hurt them in statewide races.
So, to partly understand the current state of things, please read this article from right after the 2003 Gubernatorial Race.
“Summations regarding the governor’s election
By Christopher Tidmore
November 24, 2003
When the results became clear at the Jindal party on election night, half the room stood frozen with a sense of disbelieving shock. The other half had a sinking feeling that was all too real, a sense of deja vu.
For the third time in less than seven years, a Republican coasting to a seemingly easy victory statewide had fallen to a last-minute Democratic surge. By all appearances, gambling busted Jenkins, sugar choked Terrell, and a doctor from Charity Hospital sent Jindal to the morgue.
But, this governor’s race differed greatly from its senatorial predecessor. In ways that raise the question — even if the negative ads had not launched in the final days, might Jindal have still lost?
Possibly.
In the simplest terms, everywhere a Republican is supposed to do badly, Jindal did well. Everywhere a Republican is supposed to do well, Jindal did badly — quite a contrast to the more “conventional” losses of Jenkins and Terrell in three distinct ways.
Ray Nagin really helped.
The big joke on Sunday afternoon was the mayor should endorse the Atlanta Falcons. That way, the Saints were sure to win.
Poll results tell a different story, though. While the mayor swung fewer African Americans to Jindal than he might have hoped (9% of the black electorate) the results in New Orleans were very impressive for a Republican.
Jindal won 32% of the vote in the Crescent City to Blanco’s 68% — or a margin of loss of 49,741 votes. When one considers that Uptown native Suzie Terrell lost 80/20, an almost 80,000 vote margin, and Woody Jenkins by almost 100,000 votes, this is an extraordinary result for a GOP candidate in a competitive race.
Jindal’s higher vote totals came from precincts with large middle-class black populations, voters that trend Democratic normally despite their economic status. So, endorsements by Nagin, the mayor’s allies, and this newspaper had to have had an effect. But, the mayor’s real charm worked with moderate White voters. Caucasians who had supported Mary Landrieu (and even Al Gore in some cases) found Jindal an attractive option in ways they had not with other Republicans. There is little doubt that Nagin, who is extremely popular with the Crescent City’s conservative Democratic Whites, definitely played a role in that switch.
The mayor helped create an impression of a broad bipartisan coalition behind Jindal that carried into areas where Republicans have had mediocre showings in the last few years — and not just in New Orleans. Jindal nearly fought Blanco to a tie in increasingly Democratic Caddo Parish. Shreveport, a city that is half African-American, only chose Blanco by 1280 votes (51/49). By contrast, Landrieu won north Louisiana’s largest city by 8,000 votes, 56% to Terrell’s 49%.
East Baton Rouge Parish, Jindal won by 7,909 votes (53% to 47%). Fellow B.R. resident Woody Jenkins only beat Landrieu by 2,000 votes on his home turf, and Terrell lost the capital by 2,000 votes.
Racism Lives, as Does the Duke Voter.
Even more telling are the parishes that Jindal lost (or barely won) where a GOP candidate should have won by a large margin. He was defeated in Republican bastions of north Louisiana and the Florida parishes where he should have triumphed easily.
Terrell, Jenkins, (and George W. Bush for that matter) carried these areas by wide margins. A conservative candidate of similar philosophy should have as well. There is only one clear reason why Jindal did not — his race.
Shortly before the election, The Louisiana Weekly published the comments of Kenny Knight, David Duke’s chief henchman and interim head of Duke’s N.O.F.E.A.R. group (National Organization For European American Rights). Knight recommended to all Duke’s supporters “to stay home.” He said that N.O.F.E.A.R. “could not support Jindal.”
Whether Knight caused the rift (or more likely, simple racism), we can never know, but the results are clear. They show that normally pro-Republican “Reagan Democrats” did not vote on November 15th or cast their ballots for Blanco.
Rapides Parish that chose Terrell by 2,500 votes went for Blanco by 4,000. Very pro-GOP Ouachita voted for Terrell by a margin of 7,000. Jindal won by only 2,000.
In pro-Bush Tangipahoa, it was Blanco 52%, Jindal 48%. Terrell won it 54%-46%. In conservative Vernon, Blanco carried 57%, Jindal 43%. Terrell triumphed 54%-46%. And, in Richland Parish, Blanco was at 57%, Jindal 43%. Terrell achieved a victory of 56%-44%. If Bobby Jindal was White, one wonders if the same margins would have occurred?
All Things Being Equal, Cajuns Vote for Cajuns.
As John Treen once observed, with the exception of Buddy Roemer, every governor in the last 30 years has either come from Acadiana or represented Acadiana in Congress. In general, Louisianans vote regionally. Even by that standard, though, the Cajun electorate has a tremendous tendency to support the native son or daughter.
Acadiana Republicans will often back a Democrat with a local French name, and their Democratic counterparts will often do the same-regardless of party loyalty or reasonable differences in ideology. Blanco was quite nearly competitive with Jindal amongst GOP voters in some parts of Acadiana.
As a contrast, Woody Jenkins fought Mary Landrieu to a near tie in many parts of Cajun country (a commentary on those who believed that Blanco was strong with female Republicans strictly because of gender. The sex card did not work for Mary Landrieu in anything near the same way.) Terrell had a strong showing in Acadiana as well. Jindal was not even close to Blanco.
Race probably played a factor in southwest Louisiana like the north and the Florida parishes. Many Cajun voters, however, simply concluded, “We have to support Kathleen. She’s a Babineaux!”
(This has led John Treen and many other GOP leaders to conclude that they should only recruit candidates from Acadiana. “It’s the only sure way to win,” Treen told the Weekly.)
Do these factors mean that the Republicans could not have done anything differently to raise their chances of victory?
The answer is no. First, the Jindal campaign took an obvious gamble by not responding to the criticisms of his record as head of the state Department of Heath and Hospitals. A media campaign emphasizing the increase in the number of doctors accepting Medicaid and improvements in the available quality of service would have helped considerably.
Second, the Republican Party could have done a better job at attacking Blanco. Every afternoon, the media would receive e-mails from not only the Jindal and Blanco campaigns, but from the state Democratic Party as well. Communications Director Cleve Mesidor managed to criticize every Jindal misstep and action. In other words, Mesidor did the job of a CD very well and provided the media with fodder from outside the campaign press offices.
As a contrast, aggressive e-mails from the Louisiana Republican Party were few and far between. They sent one for every 10 that Mesidor launched. Jindal Press Secretary Trey Williams attempted to fight this onslaught with considerable merit, but he and his campaign should not have had to do so alone. Blanco certainly did not.
Third, Blanco had an exceptional GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort. Her staff took advantage of competitive races in New Orleans East and other parts of the state to generate turnout. Unlike Mississippi or Kentucky, there was no vaulted “72- hour plan” to increase Republican turnout in Louisiana that mattered.
In an exclusive, The Louisiana Weekly has learned that a senior state GOP Party official from New Orleans telephoned Republican HQ in Baton Rouge to warn that voters were surging to the polls in the Crescent City. This official, who has asked to remain anonymous, states that the staffers on call responded, “That’s just the Nagin vote going to the polls.”
“There is no ‘Nagin vote’ as they understand it,” he told this newspaper, “and it would not suddenly surge like that.”
There is a bigger question, ultimately, than racism or GOTV. Why do Democrats do so much better in Louisiana statewide elections than in other southern states?
Some have tried to answer that Louisiana’s Catholic population is attracted to a more populist type of candidate than the predominantly Protestant remaining states of the Sun Belt. Others have said that Huey Long made Louisiana a more pro-government state than our neighbors. With the tax burden on business instead of the citizenry, we have developed an attitude of painless populism.
More importantly, Blanco ran on a platform that was indistinguishable from Bobby Jindal’s campaign planks. She was just as conservative as he. Hence, she seemed to many voters as equally pro-reform — just not as fast as Bobby Jindal. If all the ideological factors are essentially equal, why not choose the Democrat, especially considering the factors above?
Other Southern states have conservative Democrats, but not on the scale, or with the centrism, of Louisiana’s Dems. That is not an accident. Their closed primary systems force Democrats to move to the left to satisfy voters in ways that Louisiana’s open primary system does not. From day one, a Democrat can move to the middle, and even the right, without worrying that some other candidate will out-demagogue them with liberal voters before they can stand in the general election.
For that reason, non-African-American Democrats tend to be more conservative than their counterparts in other Southern states. Edwin Edwards liked to brag that he was the father of the Republican Party because without the open primary, the original Republican candidates would not have had a chance. He may be the father of Louisiana’s powerful Democratic Party as well, though.
As one former state representative put it to this reporter on election night, “Maybe we need a closed primary system…Not because our guys [the Republican candidates] are too conservative. Because theirs aren’t liberal enough to beat.”
I thought that this article would do much to help weaken Jindal’s aura of invincibility, and tell a great deal about Lousiana’s politics. He was very much expected to win in 2003 until Democrats rallied with a last minute campaign surge, and he ended up losing 52-48. If we don’t manage to do the same thing in 2007, preferably with State Sen. Boasso becuase he would get the Cajun votes Jindal siphons from Campbell, (who is by far one of my favorite politicians, and my favorite candidate based only on the issues). Boasso, curiously enough, switched from the Republican party because of how they treated his campaign, how they annointed Jindal, again. If he wins as the Democrat, just think of what a great irony it would be. On a side note, the article mentioned Blanco’s weakness in Caddo Parish, not again my friends. State Sen. Lydia Jackson is really boosting it’s trend, and working to bring tens of thousand of black voters to the polls in favor of Democrats. It was a testament of her strength that the city of Shreveport just elected the first black mayor in it’s history.
Now, to understand the 2007 Gubernatorial race, you have to understand Jindal. He has a reputation for being a genuis because he was appointed Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals by Governor Foster. But, during his tenure La’s healthcare ranking fell from 48-50. Mississippi beat us! Mississippi. Mississippi! You have no idea how imcompetent a person would ahve to be to for something like, like, that, to happen! He ended up being the pet and rising star of the Louisiana Republican Party, so they kept in plenty of major, high profile appointed positions that he had no business having. He was President of the University of Louisiana System from 199-2001, despite having no experience teaching or directing anything for a University before. In 2001 he got a nice cozy appointment from Bush, working for Tommy Thompson in the U.S. Health and Human Services Department.
Jindal has never, in my eyes proved himself competent in any position he’s ever had. In Congress he proved himself to be a most worthless member, not putting forth a single piece of legislation himself, and pretty much voting lockstep with the Republican leadership. He was ranked 432th most powerful man in Congress during his terms. This was done by the nonpartisan Congress.org, and was out of 439. It was clear from the beginning that serving the people of LA-01 was not his concern, but instead it was the 2007 race for governor that he cared about. The seat was just somethign to keep him the public eye, something that would allow him to run a million dollars of campaign ads a cycle, even if he didn’t happen to have a visible opponent in this most Republican district. But, hey, Republicans just claim brilliant ideas that solve all of Louisiana’s problems are just going pop out his head like Athena from Zeus. They claim he’s a brilliant reformer and outsider, though he’s gotten where he is by being an insider. Though he has never been a reformer or a doer in any of his many positions, just a follower.
In some of the funnier episodes that will go down in Jindal lore, he exorcised his cat. (He converted to Catholicism from Hindu decades ago). While I have no problem with Hindu’s, or non-religious people, Louisiana does. I think that he converted to the religion he thought would get him the farthest. Very few people actually convert to Catholicism these days, most people are leaving it, like my grandfather and his five siblings. So it seems an odd choice, even odder still that in Louisiana the Catholic vote is a crucial part of his opposing poltiical parties base. Hmm. It’s just my belief that he converted to Catholicism for solely political reasons, and I do have a problem with that.
His wife also recently gave birth to a child in their own home. He had to beliver the baby himself, and she had no access to painkilling medication. He says it came suddenly, and there was not enough time to get to the hospital, I think it was a set up, a ploy for media attention.
If you want to see other stats on how horrible Jindal is, look at the Wikipedia.org piece on him. He’s against abortion “no exceptions”, not even for a woman’s life, he voted with the Repuiblican leadership 97% of the time, making him a loyal follower.
Do you want to stand back and watch as this man becomes Governor because you didn’t Louisiana was important enough to send money too. Do you want to know you could’ve helped make a difference but didn’t. Because it’s not a lost cause. 60% of voters are not sure who they’re voting for, so Jindal’s early lead is not important. There’s a huge amount of room to grow, and we came from behind to overtake Jindal and stun him with defeat last time, we can do it again, don’t give up hope!
P.S. Please vote in the poll. I use it as an indicator of how many people have read this, and I just really like to know that for curiousity’s sake.
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