Tag: NY-Sen-B

NY Times:

Caroline Kennedy has withdrawn from consideration for the vacant Senate seat in New York, according to a person told of her decision.

On Wednesday she called the governor, David Paterson, who is making the selection of who should succeed Senator Hillary Clinton. Her concerns about Senator Edward M. Kennedy’s deteriorating health (he was hospitalized after a seizure during the inaugural lunch on Tuesday ) prompted her decision to withdraw, this person said. Coping with the health issues of her uncle, with whom she enjoys an extraordinarily close bond, was her most important priority; a situation not conducive to starting a high profile public job.

She was planning to issue a statement on Wednesday evening.

According to the Times, Paterson will be announcing his selection on Saturday. I’m glad that Kennedy is doing the right thing by clearing the way for DavidNYC.

UPDATE (David): Now there are conflicting reports, with some anonymous family members allegedly saying she has not pulled out. Governor, my transition team is getting antsy!

LATER UPDATE (James): It’s official:

I informed Governor Paterson today that for personal reasons I am withdrawing my name from consideration for the United States Senate.

(Hat-tip: Jeremiah)

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Caroline Kennedy (D): 51

Peter King (R): 33

Other: 9

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A rather different picture from PPP’s poll earlier in the week, though it’s a bit hard to compare directly since Rasmussen for whatever reason did not also ask about Cuomo. (They also failed to test DavidNYC vs. King.) I am a little mystified about Rasmu’s choice to use a likely voter screen some two years before any election – how can they possibly judge that?

Anyhow, we should finally have our answer as to who the next junior senator from New York will be in a couple of weeks. Can’t happen soon enough.

Even I could beat Peter fucking King.

Public Policy Polling (1/3-4, registered voters):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 48

Peter King (R): 29

Undecided: 23

Caroline Kennedy (D): 46

Peter King (R): 44

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPP continues to do yeoman’s work for us in New York, and the results are not terribly surprising: after enduring a remarkably awkward media roll out over the past several weeks, Caroline Kennedy’s stock seems to have taken a big enough hit to cause a sufficient chunk of New York Democrats (a full 25%) to flock to King. Maybe that number would diminish if Kennedy got her act together in a 2010 election campaign, but it sure doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Cuomo, meanwhile, clearly has some fences of his own to mend; African-American voters support him over King by only the most tepid of margins: 35-23. Kennedy scores a much higher 63-28 among these voters, which is the only reason why she’s leading King in a hypothetical match-up.

Rumblings:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn met today with Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), and intends on supporting him as the congressman strongly considers a run for the Senate in New York.

“Senator Cornyn believes Peter King would be a very formidable candidate. He believes the seat could be in play, and is prepared to commit the resources to win the seat,” said a senior Republican aide familiar with the meeting.

A source close to King confirmed  that the congressman is strongly considering running for the Senate. He is expected to make a final decision whether to run “soon after” Gov. David Paterson appoints a successor for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

As uphill a fight as this might be, I could see King doing this for the same reason guys like Zach Wamp, Adam Putnam, and Pete Hoekstra are all making similar moves: being a House Republican sucks right now, and for the foreseeable future. King also has an additional fire that’s slowly broiling his ass – he’s almost sure to face some unfriendly redistricting in two years’ time.

While I think King would get walloped by almost any Dem, it’s possible a not-ready-for-primetime Caroline Kennedy could be potentially vulnerable. And even she would still be the odds-on favorite. What’s more, this race will cost a fortune, and I really doubt John Cornyn can spare the resources when there are many better targets out there.

Still, it would be fun to watch, and would create a great open-seat race for King’s NY-03 House seat.

Gov. Paterson should do the right thing and appoint Fran Drescher for Hillary’s Senate seat.

If Gov. Paterson fails to select me for the Senate vacancy, he needs to pick Cuomo so that I can get the AG slot.

PPP (1/3-4, registered voters):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 58 (23)

Caroline Kennedy (D): 27 (44)

Undecided: 14 (8)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Something big has happened over the last few weeks in the “race” to succeed Hillary Clinton as New York’s junior senator, according to the trendlines set by the new PPP poll. The Kennedy boomlet seems to have crested and is receding, suggesting that her awkward media rollout and halting answers to questions has prompted something of a backlash. (In fact, 44% of those surveyed state that their opinion of Kennedy has become less favorable since she started publicly campaigning for the seat.)

However, there is one important apples ‘n’ oranges problem here. The month-old PPP poll was a) only of Democrats, rather than all New York voters like this one, and b) included a whole raft of other candidates instead of just the big 2, although none of them polled above the single digits. The month-old Marist poll (which was of registered voters, and found Kennedy and Cuomo tied at 25%, with 26% undecided and the balance going to other candidates) might be a better reference point, although even if you use that as a benchmark, you still have a pretty significant Kennedy collapse. Another approach is to delve into the crosstabs, which indicate in the current sample that Cuomo leads Kennedy 54-34 among Democrats only (with 12% undecided)… again, a pretty steep turnaround.

Of course, there’s only one voter in this race, and if there’s any substance to the trial balloons floated by the Paterson camp last Friday, he may well be on track to pick Kennedy anyway.

The Associated Press:

Officials say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor’s choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Two people close to Gov. David Paterson tell The Associated Press they believe Caroline Kennedy will be his choice, but the governor cautions he’s still looking.

However, Paterson is still cautioning that “It ain’t nothin’ till I calls it.”

I’ve been in favor of the idea, but the Daily News says it’s not gonna happen:

Gov. David Paterson today flat-out rejected the idea of appointing a placeholder to Hillary Clinton’s US Senate seat, saying he’s worried it would cost New York clout in the upper house. …

“I’m actually opposed to that,” he told reporters in Albany this morning. “It would cause New York to lose senioirity, and in the United States Senate the most effective senators are the ones that have seniority. So I’m hoping that the person I select wins a primary.”

Because Clinton won’t resign until she is confirmed as SoS, Paterson isn’t talking about seniority in the 111th Congress – his appointee will be the most junior member of the Senate (possibly depending on what happens in Illinois and maybe Minnesota).

Rather, seniority will only matter if the appointed senator wins a primary and general in 2010. Around ten or so new senators take office every two years on average, so our Mystery Senator would have the tremendous privilege of being, oh, about 88th or 89th in the pecking order.

I don’t purport to understand every nuance of the Senate’s internal dealings – it’s a very weird body. So maybe ten spots up the totem poll really would make a difference. But this seems like a pretty feeble justifcation for me, because I think there’s a simple solution that balances the seniority issue with, you know, the democracy issue: change the law to call for a special election. Of course, there aren’t too many sitting governors who would give up their own power like that, so I’m sure we won’t see Paterson exercise that option either.