Tag: NY-Sen-B

Via SG, the North Carolina’s News & Observer sayeth:

Attorney General Roy Cooper said he hopes to make a decision on whether to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr some time this spring, Rob Christensen reports.

“I want to continue with public service to the people of North Carolina,” Cooper said Tuesday morning after attending a meeting of the Council of State. “I’m going to determine the best way to do that. I’m going to decide that very soon.”

Technically speaking, that gives Cooper until June 20th to make up his mind – summer officially starts on the 21st. A few other folks have also offered some soft deadlines.

RI-Gov – Lincoln Chafee (I):

But in a visit to Barrington Congregational Church, where he spoke about America’s world role in the post-Bush era, the 56-year-old Chafee said again that he is “very, very interested” in running and will decide this spring, based on whether he thinks he can raise the money to run a campaign and whether he has a chance to win. …

He said he expects to decide on a gubernatorial run when the fellowship ends in May.

NY-Sen-B – Peter King (R):

Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y), the leading Republican contender for the New York Senate seat, praised newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and said he won’t decide whether to run against her until this summer.

OR-Gov – Greg Walden (R):

Whatever the case, Walden sounds like he’ll be quicker to make a decision about the governorship than DeFazio. While the Democrat said he has no deadline, Walden said he wants to make his intentions clear by summer.

FL-Sen – Charlie Crist (R):

Few Republicans are entering the race so far. Most are waiting a decision from Governor Charlie Crist, who says he’ll make an annoucement on whether or not he’ll make a run for Washington after the state legislative session wraps up in May.

Do you know of any others? Please let us know in comments (with links). Thanks!

Quinnipiac (4/1-5, registered voters, 2/10-15 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 18 (23)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 61 (55)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 29 (24)

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33 (34)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (43)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (43)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 36 (37)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 40 (42)

Peter King (R): 28 (26)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

David Paterson, like Wall Street, seems to be searching for a bottom to his free-fall… and it doesn’t look like he’s found his yet. In February, Quinnipiac found that Paterson would get demolished in a Democratic primary matchup against Andrew Cuomo 55-23, a blowout by any standards. But now that same race has plunged even further, to a 61-18 gulf, to the extent that Cuomo would barely need a flick of his wrist to take out Paterson.

And while Paterson’s favorability and approval ratings weren’t terrible last time, they’ve bottomed out too. His favorability is at 27/55, while his approval rating is 28/60 (down from 45/41 in February). Not only do only 22% think he deserves to be re-elected (63% say no), but only 39% think he should even bother running in 2010, while 53% think he should announce now that he won’t be running. These numbers — especially the self-fulfilling prophecy built into that last set of numbers — are just the type you don’t recover from.

This poll also sees Paterson losing convincingly to Rudy Giuliani, a major change from the tied game seen in February. Giuliani, however, hasn’t taken any visible steps toward running; Rudy is probably looking to jump in only if Cuomo doesn’t get in, as this poll shows that Giuliani would be only a slightly bigger speed bump for Cuomo than Paterson would be. Speed bump honors instead seem likelier to fall to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, last seen running against Hillary Clinton in 2000. Lazio is exploring a candidacy and has been meeting with GOP powers-that-be upstate.

On the Senate side, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still struggling for name recognition, with a 24/11 favorable (with 64% still saying ‘haven’t heard enough’). She still trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (who has the advantage of being in the NYC media market) in a primary matchup, although it’s much closer than in February. It’s unclear, though, whether a matchup with McCarthy will ever happen; while McCarthy made the loudest noises at the outset, speculation lately has turned toward other NYC-area Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney. Given that Gillibrand, already noted for her fundraising prowess, just released numbers showing that she raised $2.3 million in the first quarter, she may not draw any primary challengers at all.

Siena College (PDF) (3/16-18, registered voters, Feb. 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 17 (27)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67 (53)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±_._%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 33 (36)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (51)

Undecided: 11 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Brutal. Just brutal. Paterson’s favorables are now at 29-58 – in November, they were 64-19! His job approval is even worse, 17-78, and his re-elects are 14-67. Meanwhile, Cuomo is busy clocking in some of his highest ratings ever – almost the mirror-image of the Governor. He’s even winning African American voters by 55-22. I never imagined I’d say this considering how high he was riding just half a year ago, but it may seriously be time for Paterson to consider not running again.

Siena also tested some Senate nums:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 41

George Pataki (R): 41

Undecided: 18

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 47 (40)

Peter King (R): 23 (27)

Undecided: 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

These aren’t as interesting as they may look. Fifty-four percent of the state has no opinion of Gillibrand, while Pataki has 90% name rec. Plus, I’d be quite surprised if he got in. Gillibrand’s considerable resources will undoubtedly allow her to enhance her statewide profile over the next year.

The full cross-tabs are here (PDF). BigDust also has a post on this poll.

David Paterson’s mistake gets uglier by the day:

Ten New York House members are warning state Party chairwoman June O’Neill not to use party resources to help promote Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a potential primary next year. …

Sources said this morning that the concern stems from the party sending out emails that included articles about Gillibrand’s re-election bid next year, but nothing about the other candidates considering a run.

The signatories:

     Tim Bishop (NY-01)

     Steve Israel (NY-02)

     Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04)

     Jerrold Nadler (NY-08)

     Yvette Clark (NY-11)

     Nydia Velázquez (NY-12)

     Carolyn Maloney (NY-14)

     Jose Serrano (NY-16)

     Maurice Hinchey (NY-22)

     Eric Massa (NY-29)

Personally, I think the idea of the state party not helping the incumbent is a bit ridiculous, though obviously a few somewhat influential members of Congress (and a passel of backbenchers) disagree. On the other hand, how much help can the New York State Democratic Party actually offer a sitting senator?

I guess perceptions are probably what’s most at stake here – anyone considering a challenge (or worried that the too-conservative Gillibrand might be getting too comfortable) doesn’t want the conventional wisdom to congeal around the idea that she’s untouchable. This seat might be safely blue in a general election, but this intra-party split is unpleasant in the extreme. (And note that it’s not just upstate-vs.-city – Hinchey and Massa signed the letter, too.)

The full letter is available at the link above.

• FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

• KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

• PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

• RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

• Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

• NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

Marist (2/25-26, registered voters, 1/27 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 26

Andrew Cuomo (D): 62

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 78

Rick Lazio (R): 17

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 38 (46)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (47)

David Paterson (D-inc): 47

Rick Lazio (R): 35

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39

Andrew Cuomo (D): 71

Rick Lazio (R): 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Peter King (R): 32

George Pataki (R): 56

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 49 (49)

Peter King (R): 28 (24)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (44)

George Pataki (R): 41 (42)

(MoE: ±3%)

Whew! That’s a lot of data for one poll. And none of it is good for Gov. David Paterson, who can’t muster even half the support of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary matchup… and if he miraculously makes it through the primary, he’s poised to get creamed by Rudy Giuliani, of all people.

There’s also the wee matters of his approval rating (26% ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ which is lower than George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, or Eliot Spitzer ever managed), disapproval over his handling of the budget (30/59, down from 42/41 in January, suggesting that most of his continued plunge is about the budget and not about senate seat blowback), and terrible ‘wrong track’ numbers for the state of New York (27/65). The only thing he has to be thankful about: that he’s not ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, the one man in the state who’s even less popular.

On the Senate front, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still in something of a holding pattern as her constituents get to know her. She’s getting only 18% ‘excellent’ or ‘good ratings, compared with 32% ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ but 50% of the sample just says ‘don’t know.’ She fares well against Rep. Peter King, but ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t really expressed interest in the race, although John Cornyn has been privately buttering him up) makes the race competitive. Her toughest task may still be defending her left flank in the primary, although unlike Quinnipiac‘s February poll, which had Gillibrand down 34-24 to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Marist gives Gillibrand the narrow edge. (Discussion is underway in andgarden‘s aptly titled diary.)

Associated Press:

The head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee approached former Gov. George Pataki this week about running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, according to a person who spoke to Pataki about the private meeting. […]

Pataki, now in private law practice, hasn’t yet accepted or rejected the idea, the person said. The race would be against Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton when she became Barack Obama’s secretary of state.

When the NRSC is desperate to drag in a bozo who left office with some downright cruddy approval ratings, you know that the GOP shelf is pretty bare in the Empire State.

So what of Peter King? He still could run, but one gets the distinct sense that his Viagra dosage is running pretty low now that he’s missed the opportunity to run against Caroline Kennedy.

(H/T: P-co)

Quinnipiac (2/10-15, registered voters):

David Paterson (D-inc): 23

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 24

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 34

(MoE: ±4.6%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 43

Rudy Giuliani (R): 43

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51

Rudy Giuliani (R): 37

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42

Peter King (R): 26

(MoE: ±3%)

In the political chess game, David Paterson may have felt he was thinking ten moves ahead by picking Kirsten Gillibrand to fill the vacant Senate seat, by picking a young, charismatic woman with monster fundraising capacities who may well be holding the seat 40 years from now. However, it’s starting to look like, in doing so, he wasn’t thinking two moves ahead… as Quinnipiac now shows both Paterson and Gillibrand highly vulnerable in the 2010 primary. Picking Andrew Cuomo to fill the Senate seat would have killed two birds with one stone in the short-term for Paterson (get a Senator who’s known statewide and ready to stand on his own, and give his electoral archrival something to do other than challenge him in the 2010 election). Instead, he gambled on long-term dividends, and it’s possible neither he nor Gillibrand will be around to enjoy them.

The Gillibrand/McCarthy numbers seem likely to evolve over time, as 39% remain undecided. And both candidates seem largely unknown outside their respective corners of the state; Gillibrand’s favorables are 24/9 with 65% “haven’t heard enough,” (and 81% “haven’t heard enough” in the NYC Suburbs) while McCarthy’s are also 24/9, with 66% “haven’t heard enough” (with 88% “haven’t heard enough” upstate). An uncontroversial two years for Gillibrand, combined with tacking left on guns and immigration issues, should bring her numbers up (although revelations like the one today that she keeps two guns under her bed can’t be helping matters). Gillibrand has little trouble disposing of Rep. Peter King in the general (there’s no polling of an all-LI slugfest between King and McCarthy).

Paterson, however, trails Cuomo by a 2-1 margin, and, unlike Gillibrand, everyone knows who he is. His favorables are a fairly grim 41/35, while Cuomo clocks in at 63/15. Cuomo also dominates a hypothetical matchup against Rudy Giuliani while Paterson only ties him. Much of this does, in fact, seem to be blowback from the senator selection process. Paterson gets a mark of 35/52 for approval/disapproval of how he handled the process, down from 44/42 from last month. We may be looking at a truly epic miscalculation from Paterson here, one for the history books.

Full speed ahead:

Rep. Carolyn McCarthy on Friday vowed to challenge Sen.-designate Kirsten Gillibrand in New York’s 2010 Democratic Senate primary, citing Gillibrand’s support from the National Rifle Association in past campaigns.

McCarthy became active politically after her husband was killed when a gunman went on a shooting spree on a Long Island Railroad train in 1993, and has made gun control her signature issue since entering Congress in 1997. Her son was wounded in the shooting and still has health problems.

“I certainly have never forgotten why I came into politics, so you can imagine how I felt when I heard that the next Senator from New York would be a person who got the endorsement of the NRA,” McCarthy said during an interview on MSNBC just minutes after Gillibrand was named to the Senate by New York Gov. David Paterson (D).

McCarthy told the cable network that she had spoken to Paterson two weeks ago to air her objections to a possible Gillibrand appointment.

“This is a personal issue to me,” McCarthy said. “It has nothing to do with politics. … I’m not out here to make trouble. … I had to speak up. I had to let the people know who their next Senator is going to be.”

If McCarthy does indeed follow through with this, Paterson may come to regret opening this can of worms. Of course, it’s possible that any choice he made could have been subject to a primary challenge, but this one has the potential to be especially divisive. Oy.  

WPIX is claiming that multiple sources tell them that David Paterson will announce tomorrow that Kirsten Gillibrand will be appointed as the new Senator from New York, to fill the vacancy left by Hillary Clinton. This comes after yesterday’s announcement that Caroline Kennedy was withdrawing from consideration.

As one source noted, “in politics you never know,” but based on the information they have heard and shared with PIX News Governor Paterson intends to name Kirsten Gillibrand as New York’s next Senator at a noon news conference tomorrow in Albany.

So, if this actually happens (just watch it be Cuomo instead!), here are several thoughts:

* This leaves a big gaping hole to be filled by special election in NY-20, an R+3 district that has been bluening but has historical GOP advantage and not much of a Democratic bench at the legislative or county level. This could be a difficult retention in a special election.

* This potentially sets up two Democratic primaries in 2010 for the statewide races: Andrew Cuomo vs. Paterson in the governor’s race (seeing as Cuomo has the time to do so), and Gillibrand defending her seat. (Also rumored today was that Carolyn McCarthy from NY-04 threatened to challenge Gillibrand in a primary in 2010.)

* Some progressives won’t be happy to see this seat filled by a Blue Dog caucus member, and the least liberal member of the New York House delegation… although it seems likely she’ll move to the left once in office to match her new larger and more liberal constituency.

UPDATE (James): As the lead organizer of DavidNYC’s transition team, I feel it necessary to inform the public and members of the media that Mr. NYC is keeping all of his options open on the possibility of running in the 2010 and 2012 Senate primaries.