Tag: NY-Sen-B

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning’s conference calls with reporters are always good for comedy gold, and his most recent one was no exception, as he heads further off the reservation and out into Howard Beale territory: he referred to Mitch McConnell as a “control freak,” and said he’d be better off without McConnell’s endorsement. He also challenged a reporter, who’d questioned his fitness to serve, to an arm-wrestling match.

• NY-Sen-B: Another primary challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out of the race, but unlike Steve Israel’s disappearance, this one barely made a ripple in the pond. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer said he’ll run for re-election instead, citing Barack Obama’s desire for a clear path (nothing about an actual phone call from the POTUS, though). Gillibrand is also starting to rack up endorsements from some of her former House colleagues — Maurice Hinchey and Yvette Clarke — as well as state Senate leader Malcolm Smith, Assemblyman Peter Rivera (who was one of her loudest opponents at first), and NARAL New York.

• MN-Sen: The NRSC has better places to spend its money (like trying to salvage NH-Sen, OH-Sen, and MO-Sen), but they’re giving $750,000 to help Norm Coleman with his legal bills in his prolonged fight to get back his seat (or at least keep it empty as long as possible). Meanwhile, Rasmussen now finds that Minnesotans want Coleman to concede right now, 54-41.

• MO-Sen: New (likely) entrant to the race Tom Schweich has wasted no time in lighting Rep. Roy Blunt up like a Christmas tree. Responding to Blunt’s criticisms of a one-time donation by Schweich to Claire McCaskill, Schweich referenced Blunt’s “vintage Washington-style smear campaign” and made fun of Blunt’s big poll gap against Robin Carnahan. How sad is it (for Blunt) that he’s having already playing defense against a never-elected law professor instead of Carnahan?

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, suddenly facing a likely primary challenge from AG Mark Shurtleff, got high-profile help from Mitt Romney, who cut a TV spot for Bennett. Bennett’s decision to spend big and spend now may be timed to encourage Shurtleff to think more about the 2010 governor’s race that also just materialized.

• MA-Sen: Harry Reid backed down today on yesterday’s comments that Ted Kennedy’s cancer is in remission and that he’ll be back in the Senate after Memorial Day. He said he’ll leave the timeline up to Kennedy and his doctors.

• OK-Sen: Tom Coburn told the Tulsa World that he’ll announce on June 1 what he’ll do with his political future. (Not sure if that’s real world June 1, or Mark Kirk June 1.)

• NY-Gov: Rasmussen takes their first look at the NY-Gov morass. No big surprises: David Paterson has 31/67 approvals. Paterson loses 58-30 to Rudy Giuliani and 47-33 to George Pataki, while Andrew Cuomo beats Giuliani 55-37 and Pataki 57-29. Meanwhile, the GOP is putting together a Plan B in the likelihood that, as recently rumored, Rudy doesn’t even show up; with Rick Lazio exciting nobody, they’re increasingly interested in Erie County Exec Chris Collins.

• WA-Gov: Yes, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2012. AG Rob McKenna, the only Republican who poses a real threat to Dems in this blue state, seems to be staffing up with an eye toward bigger electoral challenges, hiring Randy Pepple (a prominent Republican strategist) as his new chief of staff.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, Tennessee’s GOP chair, quit her job in order to focus full-time on exploring the TN-03 race (to replace the retiring Zach Wamp, running for Governor). Insiders view Smith as the likely frontrunner for the GOP nod; she faces Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble in the primary, and maybe state Sen. Bo Watson as well.

• GA-12: Another Republican is getting into the race against Rep. John Barrow in this rural Georgia district, despite Wayne Mosely’s made-up statistics that he’s one of the NRCC’s Top 3 recruits. Carl Smith is the fire chief and former city councilor of “Thunderbolt.” (Yes, it’s a real town. I checked the atlas.)

• WI-08: Rep. Steve Kagen also got another Republican challenger: Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams, who represents De Pere on the county board. Marc Savard (Door County Supervisor) is already in the race, so GOP voters will apparently think they’re choosing between an NHL player and the guy who sang “Moon River.”

• FL-AG: Bill Nelson is trying to broker a truce to avoid a three-way primary between state Sen. Dan Gelber, Rod Smith (’06 gube candidate) and state Sen. Dave Aronberg for the AG slot. This could be a pretty important downballot test for Dems here — if a Dem could win this race, they could be the star player of the farm team in Florida for quite some time. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: Steve Israel might have backed down from a primary challenge to appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, thanks to last Friday’s iron-fist-in-a-velvet-glove moment from Barack Obama… but fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney isn’t cowed. “I respect the choices that every member makes about their future. Steve Israel’s decision to not run for the U.S. Senate was his choice to make, but it doesn’t affect my decision-making process,” says Maloney. She has reportedly told colleagues of her plans to run, but nothing is official yet.

• KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell was tap-dancing like crazy when Chris Wallace asked him point blank on Fox News Sunday whether or not he endorsed Jim Bunning for re-election, restating endless variations on the theme that the race is unfolding and it’s not clear who the players are yet.

• CT-Sen: Another random primary challenger to Chris Dodd has surfaced: Merrick Alpert, a former Air Force officer, aide to Al Gore, and software company executive. Although his online statement about his candidacy attacked Dodd’s “corporate campaign contributors,” Merrick’s previous track record in the leadership of Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century (or DL21C for short), a group for centrist pro-business young Democrats, suggests he may be running to Dodd’s right.

• WV-Sen: Best wishes to 91-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd, who was hospitalized over the weekend as a “precautionary measure” after he developed a fever from a minor infection.

• NY-Gov: Tom Golisano, wealthy gadfly who lost three gubernatorial runs on the Independence Party line, will not be running in 2010, despite some speculation he might run for the GOP nod this time. He’s changing his legal residence from New York to Florida, saying he wants to avoid New York’s high taxes.

• ID-Gov: Weirdo conservative Rex Rammell, who spend a lot his own money to run as an Independent in last year’s Idaho Senate race because of his disdain for Jim Risch (and ultimately had little impact on the race), has caught the political bug and been casting about for a new race. After considering primarying Rep. Mike Simpson in ID-02, he’s now planning to run in the 2010 Governor’s race. He seems to think current Gov. Butch Otter will retire after only one term (although he freely admits, “I could be totally wrong”).

• Redistricting: Roll Call has an interesting piece detailing organizational steps the Democrats are undertaking for the 2010-12 redistricting process. Apparently many felt caught flat-footed for the 2000 round of redistricting, and are wisely revving up years in advance this time.

The Obama charm offensive continues to work its magic. From the Politico:

Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) decided not to run for the Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) after receiving a phone call from President Obama urging him not to run.

Israel was planning on running as late as this morning, but after receiving an afternoon phone call from Obama, he changed his mind.  He had already begun to hire staff in preparation for a Senate campaign, according to Empire State sources.

“I spoke with President Obama today. He asked me that I not run for the U.S. Senate this year. The President asked me to continue my leadership in Congress, working closely with him to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create new jobs through an intensified focus on renewable energy and green technology,” Israel said in a statement.

“This is a tough, heartfelt decision for me. I have received encouragement to pursue this fight from all corners of our great state. But in the interest of providing New York and our country with a united front for progressive change, I have decided to continue my efforts in Congress and not pursue a campaign for the U.S. Senate.”

All the rumblings that I was hearing over the past several weeks indicated that Izzy was pretty gung-ho at the prospect of waging a Senate campaign, so this strikes me as something of a surprise. Of course, Gillibrand still has at least a couple of other foes waiting in the wings in Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, and who knows how receptive they’ll be to the President’s requests.

• PA-Sen: It looks like the threat of a primary from the left may be having some of the desired effect on Arlen Specter. He’s engaged in negotiations on a compromise version of EFCA, and said yesterday that “prospects are pretty good” for such a bill (although it remains unclear what exactly would get cut from the bill).

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand will receive an important endorsement tomorrow: from NARAL. This may help solidify Gillibrand’s pro-choice credentials in the face of possible Senate primary challenges from Reps. Steve Israel or Carolyn Maloney.

• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle, the one guy who can make the open Delaware Senate race interesting, isn’t promising anything right now. Castle set a decision-making deadline of “the next two months,” though. (Unclear whether that’s two real months or two Mark Kirk months.)

• AR-Sen: In the wake of state Senator Kim Hendren’s comments about Chuck Schumer yesterday, a more competent sounding Republican has surfaced to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Curtis Coleman, the CEO of SafeFoods (a “food-safety services company,” whatever that is) and a close friend of Mike Huckabee, announced formation of his exploratory committee this week. Former US Attorney and Rove protege Tim Griffin may also get in; he’s announced a June 1 deadline for deciding.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul, moved one step closer to running in the Republican Senate primary (theoretically against Jim Bunning), launching his exploratory committee.

• NY-Gov: Observers are noting that Rudy Giuliani is definitely not looking like a candidate for next year’s gubernatorial race. The tipoff is the recent departure of at least three key staff members, including former chief of staff Tony Carbonetti.

• MN-Gov: This should be something of a red flag to Tim Pawlenty: 57% of Minnesotans, according to SurveyUSA, don’t want him to run for a third term as Governor. A lost gubernatorial race would basically doom his 2012 presidential aspirations, so this may up the chances of an open seat instead.

• KS-Gov: New Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson appointed a new Lt. Gov., Troy Findley. Unfortunately, Findley promptly announced that, like Parkinson, he won’t be running for Governor in 2010, leaving Kansas Democrats with bare shelves in both the open senate and governor’s races.

• CA-36: Earlier this week, Marcy Winograd (who got 38% of the vote against Jane Harman in the 2006 Democratic primary) officially kicked off her campaign for a rematch.

• Gay marriage: We’re on the precipice of gay marriage in one more state, as New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch confirmed that he was willing to sign it into law. One catch: Lynch wants a slightly different bill, that includes additional language stating that churches aren’t compelled to marry anyone they don’t want. The legislature is expected to move quickly to add the new language.

• Demographics: Hispanics and Asians are still the fastest-growing groups in America, but their growth rates have slowed down in recent years as the economic downturn has cut into immigration. In particular, Hispanic growth in the Southeast slowed down. This pushes back projections of when the U.S. becomes a minority-majority country, to the 2040s. In other census news, Orange County, Florida (Orlando) became a minority-majority county in the last year (good news for Alan Grayson as he attempts to hold FL-08).

• Redistricting: Utah has an initiative on the table for the 2010 election, proposing an independent redistricting commission (instead of letting the overwhelmingly GOP legislature draw the boundaries). Interestingly, the idea just got a prominent Republican backer: former 11-term Rep. Jim Hansen.

A couple of slightly differing reports. The NY Post says:

Long Island Congressman Steve Israel will announce plans to challenge US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s Democratic primary as early as tomorrow, several sources said yesterday.

The Suffolk County Democrat, who was first elected to Congress in 2000 and is a member of the Appropriations Committee, told several members of the state’s congressional delegation of his plans to challenge Gillibrand late Friday, congressional sources revealed.

Glenn Thrush at the Politico says Israel will form an exploratory committee rather than launch a formal challenge. These days, that seems to be a distinction without a difference – I haven’t crunched any numbers, but it sure feels like many if not most prominent exploratory committees turn into the real thing. An Israel spokesman, though, is denying that there is any sort of announcement planned for this week.

Supposedly, Carolyn Maloney will soon create an exploratory committee, too. I imagine if one or both of these folks get in, Carolyn McCarthy will bow out, citing her desire to see someone younger challenge Gillibrand (she’s older than both Maloney and Israel). But if either Israel or Maloney are to have any chance, I can’t imagine Gillibrand would be beatable in a three-way race. Someone’s gonna have to give.

Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, who was busy declaring the other day there would be no primary, is now supposedly backing off. David Paterson is also apparently staying out of things, though if I were Kirsten Gillibrand, I’m not sure I’d want him within a hundred yards of the campaign van. If anything, suggests a canny Maloney confidant, Gillibrand might be forced to support Paterson, since he is her recent patron, after all.

Anyhow, open seat fans & worry-warts: Obama pounded McCain 56-43 in Israel’s suburban Long Island district (NY-02), but its PVI nonetheless fell to D+4 from D+8. Given how Long Island has turned over the last fifteen years, the Dems would have an advantage in any open seat race here. McCarthy’s NY-04, at D+6, would be fairly similar. Maloney’s NY-14, however, would be a mortal lock for the Dems (D+26).

• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy‘s say-so). I’m wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that’s probably the answer.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she’s doing it more to yank Gillibrand’s chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being “very happy about it. I just want her to stay there.”

• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he’s bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he’ll listen to their entreaties, but he’s “comfortable with where” he is.

• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.

• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor’s race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he’s having some trouble fundraising, saying “You don’t take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it.”

• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he’ll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she’ll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he’ll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.

• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer‘s diary.)

• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he’s ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)

• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you’re going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he’ll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.

• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he’s currently serving in Iraq and won’t be able to make a formal announcement until summer.

• MI-11: We’ve got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it’s going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.

• GA-12: When you’re running for office, it’s important to sell yourself… but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who’s running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there’s no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were “very excited” about Mosely’s candidacy.

Marist Poll (4/28-29, registered voters, late Feb. in parens). First, the NY-Gov primary matchups:

Andrew Cuomo (D): 70 (62)

David Paterson (D-inc): 21 (26)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 75

Rick Lazio (R): 14

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general election matchups:

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (38)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (53)

David Paterson (D-inc): 37

Rick Lazio (R): 40

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (56)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 38 (39)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67

Rick Lazio (R): 22

(MoE: ±3%)

Paterson losing to Rick Lazio? That Rick Lazio? Oh man. Please, just make it stop. Believe it or not, though, it actually gets worse. In response to the question “Who would you rather have as governor right now?”, voters prefer Eliot Spitzer over David Paterson by a 51-38 margin. Yeesh.

Sigh. Okay. The Senate side primary head-to-heads:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn Maloney: 31

(MoE: ±4.5%)

George Pataki (R): 48 (56)

Peter King (R): 36 (32)

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 38 (45)

George Pataki (R): 46 (41)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42 (49)

Peter King (R): 31 (28)

(MoE: ±3%)

Marist unfortunately doesn’t offer any explanation as to why Gillibrand’s numbers have dropped. Her approvals have worsened, from 18-32 to 19-38. But on that question, Marist is a strange outlier from all other outfits – no one else has Gillibrand under water like that.

As for a potential primary challenge, Marist showed Gillibrand with almost identical numbers a few months back against the other Rep. Carolyn (McCarthy of Long Island). But I’m convinced that Steve Israel is by far the most likely to actually show up, and is the only person I think would have any kind of chance.

• MO-Sen: After last week announcing that she was “in no hurry” to begin her campaign for the GOP nomination in the Missouri senate race, former treasurer Sarah Steeleman has done an about-face and is setting up her exploratory committee right away. Apparently she’s striking while the iron is hot (i.e. while everyone is suddenly second-guessing Roy Blunt). She’s enlisting Ben Ginsberg, GOP beltway power-broker and fixer extraordinaire, to help. (H/t ccharles000.)

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney and an immigration hard-liner, has, as expected, formally announced his candidacy for the Colorado senate seat held by appointee Michael Bennet. He’ll face Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, and possibly ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez, in the GOP primary.

• NV-Sen: As the GOP searches for a dark-horse opponent to Harry Reid, they could go two routes: go with an underfunded conservative activist who can mobilize the boots on the ground (see Sharron Angle), or go with some self-funding rich guy nobody’s heard of who can saturate the race with money. The latter option has materialized, in the form of Wall Street investment banker John Chachas, who’s been meeting with party leaders. There are two slight problems: one, the nation’s ire toward all things Wall Street, and two, that Chachas is a New York resident who hasn’t lived in Nevada since high school.

• MN-Sen: Even polite, stoic Minnesotans have only a finite amount of patience. A new Star-Tribune poll finds that 64% think Norm Coleman should concede right now, and only 28% consider his appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court “appropriate.” 73% think he should pack it in if he loses in front of the state supreme court.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has her first official primary opponent. It’s not Steve Israel, it’s not Carolyn Maloney… it’s Scott Noren, an oral surgeon and “fiscally conservative” Dem from Ithaca who’s urging supporters to “donate modestly.” Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Democratic chair T.J. Rooney has a simple goal: to “come together as a party” and have no primary fights in 2010. Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• TX-Gov, TX-AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle (otherwise known as the guy who secured the indictment of Tom DeLay) tells the Austin American-Statesman that he is considering a statewide run, for either governor or attorney general. (J)

• WA-03: A Republican candidate against Rep. Brian Baird has already announced: financial advisor David Castillo. He’s never held elective office, but was a deputy assistant secretary at the Bush administration VA, and ran state senator Don Benton’s 1998 campaign against Baird. This district’s PVI is ‘even,’ and Baird routinely wins with over 60%. (UPDATE: Uh huh. Good luck with that.)

• WA-08: One question that’s been on the lips of the blogosphere lately is: where in the world is Darcy Burner? It’s been tweeted about for a while but now it’s been made official: she’s going to DC to be executive director of the American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation (the ideas arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus). With fellow MSFT vet Suzan DelBene in the 2010 race already, this seems to indicate Burner won’t be making a third attempt at WA-08.

• NY-20 (pdf): The BoE’s official tally bumps Scott Murphy’s lead up to 365, as 250 more ballots, mostly from Murphy stronghold Warren County, were added. Counting will continue for the forseeable future, unfortunately, and on Monday a judge will set a counting schedule for the ballots contested on the basis of second home residency.

The drip-drip of GOPers publicly throwing in the towel on NY-20 continues: today star strategist Mike Murphy cried uncle, as did former NRCC chair Tom Reynolds yesterday. Campaign Diaries has a thought-provoking piece on why the GOP continues to drag this out in the courts, even though they’re in too deep a hole for “case by case” examination of the ballots to salvage the count for them: it may be to set precedent for future recounts, where picking off individual ballots may be targeted to their advantage.

• NY-Sen, NY-14: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has hired a statewide finance director, Lewis Cohen. Cohen denied that Maloney (who has been rumored to be interested in a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand) will be running for Senate, but his title of “statewide” is pretty telling, considering that Maloney currently represents a few square miles in Manhattan and Queens.

• PA-Sen: Only eight weeks before jumping into the Senate primary, Pat Toomey told Pennsylvania GOP chair Rob Gleason that he “didn’t want to be a Senator” and “be number 100 and vote no on everything.” Now this wouldn’t exactly be the first time a politician has promised one thing and done another, but the Specter camp has begun beating Toomey over the head with his flip-flop.

• MO-Sen: Ex-treasurer Sarah Steelman is “moving in [the] direction” of entering the GOP senate primary, but is in no hurry to make a formal announcement as she gets her campaign’s financial house in order first. (She’s still paying off debts from her unsuccessful gubernatorial run last year.) This comes against a backdrop of increasing public discomfort by the party concerning Roy Blunt’s candidacy, caused not only by his humdrum $542K fundraising quarter and his high burn rate, but also his lobbyist ties and long ‘establishment’ track record.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: With top candidates like Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Cobb Co. Commissioner Sam Olens bailing on the race, there’s an opening for a top-tier candidate to leap into the GOP field for the Georgia governor’s race. (SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Comm. John Oxendine are still in.) Could Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who has occasionally expressed interest in this race, be the man? Westmoreland (perhaps best known for not being able to name the 10 commandments on the Colbert Report) is “seriously considering” it. Don’t look for a pickup of his R+19 seat if it’s open, though.

• AL-Gov: Republican treasurer Kay Ivey will be running for governor after all, according to party insiders. The perception was that her role in Alabama’s floundering prepaid tuition plan may have wounded her too much to run for governor, but she’s still going for it.

• CA-32: More endorsements as we approach the May 19 special election. Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu got the endorsement of Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. (The district doesn’t include any of LA, but obviously he’s a big figure in the media market.) The United Farm Workers and the locals of the Southern California District Council of Laborers went for state senator Gil Cedillo.

• FL-08: Republican Orlando mayor Rich Crotty was looking like a major threat to just-elected Rep. Alan Grayson, but he’s getting tarnished with some legal troubles that may preclude him from running. A grand jury accused him of pressuring vendors to contribute to his re-election campaign. There’s still a deep Republican bench eyeing the race in this R+2 district, including state senate majority whip Andy Gardiner, ex-state senator Daniel Webster, and state rep. Steve Precourt. Grayson raised only $144K in the first quarter, but he may plan to self-finance, as he partially did in 2008.

• Demographics: Here’s some interesting data from the Census Bureau: fewer people moved in 2007 (35.2 million) than any year since 1962 (when the nation had 120 million fewer people). This has its roots in the housing bubble pop, as people underwater in their houses are unlikelier to relocate for work. This may show up in a big way in 2012 reapportionment, though, as more people staying in place may save a few seats in the northeast or midwest and limit growth in the south or west.

• NY-20 (pdf): The latest update from the state BoE this morning shows Scott Murphy’s lead down to 25, as the absentee count proceeds (and a few readjustments are made to recanvass numbers). We’re still waiting on any absentee numbers from Saratoga County (Tedisco’s base) and most from Washington and Warren Counties (Murphy’s base).

Also, there’s been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently “Thunderdome” is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to “hurry up” and announce whether or not he’s running for re-election in 2010. Davis’s sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he’s considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn’t want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn’t reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn’t going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven’t reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn’t gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he’s raised enough that retirement doesn’t seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big “get” in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation’s largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who’ll be hearing Norm Coleman’s whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former “Ten Commandments” judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it’s an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it’s possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he’s returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs’ GOP chairs. In a display of ‘post-partisanship’ at its finest, he’s reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won’t run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. “I don’t know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level,” she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th’s most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the ‘can’t make this stuff up’ department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for “rubber stamping” Nancy Pelosi’s “San Francisco-style budget” (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they’re singling out OH-18’s Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)