Tag: NY-Sen-B

Caroline Kennedy faces the press:

PPP (12/8-9, Democrats)

Caroline Kennedy (D): 44

Andrew Cuomo (D): 23

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 6

Tom Suozzi (D): 3

Byron Brown (D): 3

Carolyn Maloney (D): 3

Nydia Velazquez (D): 4

Brian Higgins (D): 5

Not sure/someone else: 8

(MoE: ±3.2%)

PPP’s poll of New York Democrats shows a wide showing of support for Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton (to the seat once held by Robert F. Kennedy). Now, it could certainly be argued that this is simply a test of name recognition, seeing as how there isn’t any public campaigning for the position; this really isn’t any different than a poll of vice-presidential preferences, since there’s really only one voter that decides the race (David Paterson, in this case). But it suggests that not only is Paterson safe in appointing elective neophyte Kennedy, but that he’d likely receive widespread support for doing so.

Second choice for NY-Sen

Caroline Kennedy (D): 24

Andrew Cuomo (D): 35

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4

Tom Suozzi (D): 4

Byron Brown (D): 5

Carolyn Maloney (D): 9

Nydia Velazquez (D): 6

Brian Higgins (D): 5

Not sure/someone else: 9

As an added bonus, PPP also asks respondents their second choices. It looks like Kennedy-then-Cuomo and Cuomo-then-Kennedy are by far the most common configurations (again, assumedly because of their high name recognition), although Carolyn Maloney puts together a surprisingly strong showing (probably thanks to her presence in the NYC media market).

Marist (12/8, registered voters)

Caroline Kennedy (D): 25

Andrew Cuomo (D): 25

Byron Brown (D): 6

Nydia Velazquez (D): 4

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4

Carolyn Maloney (D): 3

Tom Suozzi (D): 3

Adolfo Carrion (D): 2

Steve Israel (D): 1

Unsure: 26

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Marist, by contrast, polls registered voters instead of Democrats only, and seems to push leaners less. They find a much closer contest between Kennedy and Cuomo, suggesting a lot of Democratic loyalty to the House of Kennedy. Breakdown by party shows Democrats supporting 31 for Kennedy vs. 21 for Cuomo, while Republican support is 34 for Cuomo and 21 for Kennedy. Kennedy leads in NYC, while Cuomo gets the plurality of support in the suburbs and upstate.

My pappy used to tell me: “Son, if you’re gonna go out, you may as well do it in style!” Looks like GOP Rep. Pete King is gonna do it in style:

Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) is preparing a run at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D) seat in 2010, his office confirmed Tuesday. […]

King is one of just three GOPers in the New York congressional delegation to survive November’s elections and has a good fundraising start on the race, having banked $1.2 million as of late November.

Of course, a lot depends on who Paterson chooses to fill Clinton’s seat, but I’d wager that King faces extremely tough odds — even against a “weak” Democrat. A King candidacy would also open up his Long Island House seat (old PVI: D+2.1), which is very winnable for Democrats with the right candidate.

UPDATE: The AP has more:

“I am seriously considering the race for Hillary Clinton’s seat,” King told The AP. “I’m very serious about it.”

The eight-term lawmaker from Long Island said New York’s GOP chairman Joseph Mondello “supports me 100 percent,” and that state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has responded positively.

The son of an NYPD lieutenant, King said he “would genuinely represent the interests of blue-collar conservatives.”

Then who would Gov. David Paterson appoint in her stead? Paterson needs to think about, among other things, a) removing potential threats to his governorship and b) earning some serious favors and goodwill. Picking AG Andrew Cuomo ships a contender off to DC, and would also let Paterson earn a second chit with an appointment to the Attorney General post.

Alternately (as Trapper John suggested to me), he could pick someone like Rep. Nydia Velazquez (NY-12), which might burnish his support among Hispanics and women. TJ also tossed out Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown as a dark-horse choice: young, African American, and from upstate. I in turn proposed ultra-dark-horse candidate DavidNYC, but I admit the odds of a second Jewish guy from New York City getting tapped to represent this state in the Senate are fairly slim.

There’s still no shortage of names out there, of course. As always, who do you think Paterson would pick, and who should he pick?

Update (James): From the NY Daily News:

Rep. Nydia Velazquez is the front-runner – for now, at least – to replace Hillary Clinton if she becomes the next secretary of state, a source close to Gov. Paterson said yesterday.

There are two other top contenders: Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo and Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island. Each would help Paterson with key constituencies when he makes his first run in 2010 for the post he inherited from disgraced Gov. Eliot Spitzer – upstaters in Higgins’ case and suburbanites in Israel’s.

Late Update (David): Looks like Clinton might actually accept, to my surprise. If true, let the games begin!

Bear with me here.  Let's assume for a moment that Hillary is our 2008 Presidential nominee, and that she wins.  Fast forward to the election aftermath, where Gov. Eliot Spitzer has the task of appointing a replacement to fill Clinton's Senate vacancy.

Whom might Spitzer appoint?  And whom would you want Spitzer to appoint?

Spitzer surprised many observers when he tapped state Senator David Paterson for his running mate in 2006, and perhaps he could surprise again given the chance.  Despite being large in number, there is no one of tremendous stature in the state's Democratic congressional delegation who could be tapped (Charlie Rangel, at 77, is too old), but that's not to say that I think a promotion from the House to the Senate is unlikely.

If Spitzer wanted to get political rival and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo off his back, he could always appoint him, but that seems unlikely given their prickly relationship.

Perhaps even Paterson himself could be a possibility, but one would expect that Spitzer would come under pressure to balance the state's Senatorial delegation with an appointee from upstate rather than a second Senator with Brooklyn roots.

There has been little talk yet of this subject, possibly because Hillary must leap through two hoops (the primary and the general election) before such a scenario occurs.  But we here at Swing State like to explore the hypotheticals, so share your thoughts in the comments below.