WI-Gov/WI-Sen: Dems in Pretty Good Shape

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/8-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 48

Scott Walker (R): 36

Undecided: 16

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 49

Mark Neumann (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 45

Tommy Thompson (R): 47

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4%)

Incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle has an unlovely 43-48 approval rating, yet he’s still close to the 50% mark against his likeliest opponents, Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker and former WI-01 Rep. Mark Neumann. Half the sample has no opinion of Walker, while a third doesn’t know Neumann, but interestingly, they pull identical numbers. (The only other poll of this race, by the Republican firm POS, showed similar nums for Doyle but had both GOPers in the low 40s.)

Meanwhile, former Gov. Tommy Thompson remains pretty popular (54-36), but only holds Doyle to a dead heat. Perhaps Obama’s 14-point thumping of John McCain is a signal that Wisconsin’s politics have changed – or maybe voters are just tired of Tommy, who was elected to an unprecedented four terms and then, after an ineffectual stint in the Bush cabinet, made a fool of himself with an embarrassing presidential run.

My gut is that the 67-year-old Thompson, who has been toying with a run, won’t get in. Thing is, Doyle (who’s already served two terms) might bow out as well. So R2K also tested his most likely replacement, Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton:

Barbara Lawton (D): 44

Scott Walker (R): 35

Undecided: 21

Barbara Lawton (D): 43

Mark Neumann (R): 35

Undecided: 22

Barbara Lawton (D): 44

Tommy Thompson (R): 46

Undecided: 10

Lawton, who holds a 35-17 favorability rating, fares quite well. Indeed, her numbers are almost identical to Walker’s 33-16 favorables. The fact that she starts off with a natural nine-point advantage does suggest that something fundamental may indeed have changed in Wisconsin. (If so, thanks, Republicans!)

R2K also took a look at the Senate race, where Russ Feingold is up for re-election. While Feingold often makes things a lot more interesting than they have to be (he’s never won with more than 55% of the vote), he looks to be in command at this point:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 53

Paul Ryan (R): 32

Undecided: 15

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 52

Mark Green: 34

Undecided: 14

Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01), something of a GOP rising star, has more or less ruled out a run against Feingold. And former Rep. Mark Green, who lost the 2006 gov race against Doyle, is working for an anti-malaria non-profit in DC, following up on his stint as US ambassador to Tanzania. He says he’s not “seeking out” any return to elective office at this time.

And therein lies the real story for Russ Feingold: the Republican cupboard in Wisconsin is pretty bare. Feingold may get very lucky indeed next year. With a solid lead in the polls and no serious opponents in site, the Swing State Project is moving its rating for this race from Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat.

RaceTracker: WI-Gov | WI-Sen

FL-Sen: Crist Makes it Official, Cornyn Endorses, Rubio Fires Back

A few months ago, this possibility seemed shocking, and nothing if not remote. But now it’s happened:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced Tuesday morning he will run for U.S. Senate.

On his Twitter page, Crist wrote, “After thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate.”

Twitter – how cute. Quite unusually (but you can understand the motivation), John Cornyn and the NRSC instantly endorsed Crist. Conservative belle du jour Marco Rubio fired right back (also on Twitter! how savvy): “Disappointed GOP senate comm endorses Crist on day 1. Remember that reform must always come from the outside. Status quo won’t change itself.”

Rubio also released a new attack ad (not sure if it’s airing on TV, or if it’s just web fodder) linking Obama and Crist, with a photo showing them embracing. If Crist survives the primary, this tactic might wind up doing him a favor, assuming Obama is still popular in eighteen months from now. But the Republican contest ought to be a lot of fun no matter what.

In any event, with polling showing Crist far ahead in the GOP primary, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on FL-Sen from Tossup to Likely R – for now. It’s still early. We also anticipate changing our rating on the FL-Gov race soon, too.

 

PA-Sen: Obama, Menendez Throw Their Support Behind Specter

Barack Obama has got Arlen Specter’s back:

When asked if Obama would like to see a more reliable Democrat challenge Specter for the 2010 nomination, [White House press secretary Robert] Gibbs referenced the president’s morning comments: “He has the president’s full support. He’s thrilled that he’s switched parties and is a Democrat.”

“If the president is asked to raise money for Sen. Specter, he’ll be happy to do it. If the president is asked to campaign for Sen. Specter, we’ll be happy to do it.” Gibbs said that includes the primary as well as the general election.

And it looks like we’re all reading from the same hymnal at Our Lady of the Blue Donkey Church: Bob Menendez has also come down for Specter. From a DSCC press release (via email):

We welcome Senator Arlen Specter to the Democratic Party. The more the merrier. I just spoke with the Senator on the phone, told him that I look forward to supporting him and making sure this seat stays Democratic in November of 2010.

Joe Torsella may say he’s staying in, and Joe Sestak may claim he’s keeping his options open, but the path to the Democratic nomination for anyone other than Arlen Specter just got a whole lot narrower. Sure, the DSCC likes to say it doesn’t “endorse” candidates, but they just didn’t endorse Specter the same way they didn’t endorse Jeff Merkley.

Anyhow, that’s small potatoes alongside what Gibbs said. I can’t really imagine a serious Democrat interested in going up against the President’s own machine. Then again, stranger things have happened – they certainly did today.

In light of all this this, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on PA-Sen from Lean Republican to Likely Democrat.

CA-Sen, RI-Gov: Arnold’s Out, Chafee’s In

Kind of a strange mash-up of topics in one post, but I think it makes sense, as sort of a roundup of Republican moderates in the news. On the one hand, you have a governor thinking about a senate seat and on the other hand you have an ex-senator thinking about a governor’s seat.

“The point was that I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I’m not running for Senate, I’m not running for Congress, I’m not running for another term as governor,” Schwarzenegger said.

Arnold Schwarzenegger gave his Shermanesque statement to the Sacramento Bee today, in the context of defending unpopular policy choices he seems about to make (probably involving tax hikes). This leaves Barbara Boxer with a pretty clear road to re-election (not that Arnold posed much of a threat anyway).

As Lincoln Chafee celebrates his 56th birthday today, a source tells WRNI that he has decided to run for governor in 2010, and will soon begin to assemble a campaign organization.

On the other hand, Lincoln Chafee seems ready to officially jump into the Rhode Island governor’s race as an independent, according to WRNI. As we discussed last week, both the Dem and GOP fields are unsettled right now as likely frontrunners David Ciccilline (for the Dems) and Steve Laffey (for the GOP) both bowed out… so this may actually begin with Chafee in the driver’s seat.

UPDATE (DavidNYC): With Arnold saying hasta la vista, baby to a senatorial run, we’re taking CA-Sen off of our Races to Watch list.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/11

CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even “Generic R” holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to “Likely Democrat.” (D)

CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)

SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry “Smoky” Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday’s news that Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)

PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter’s base, and location of most of the state’s moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It’s not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)

CT-05: Connecticut’s executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he’s doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).

Census: There wasn’t much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/10

UT-Sen: With the possibility of a serious primary challenge to Sen. Bob Bennett looming, SSP is adding this contest to our “Races to Watch” list. (D)

TX-10: A spokesman for Michael McCaul claims he’s running for re-election to his House seat; earlier McCaul said he might run for TX AG, but this situation still bears watching. Dem Jack McDonald apparently plans to run no matter what McCaul decides. (D)

PA-Sen: Peg Luksik, a pro-life activist who has made several unsuccessful runs for governor (both in the GOP primary in 1990 and on the Constitution Party line in 1998, when she pulled in 10% of the vote in the general), is planning to run in the Republican primary against both Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey. This may actually be good news for Specter, because a split between the religious fundamentalists and free-market fundamentalists in the primary could let Specter sneak through.

SC-01: The lackadaiscal Henry Brown, fresh off of barely beating Linda Ketner last year, is facing a primary challenge from a young go-getter with a prominent (if laughable) family name: Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III. (His father was SC governor in the 1990s.) Many in the local GOP are worried about the safety of the seat in Brown’s idle hands, and this early announcement may be done with the hope of goading Brown into retirement.

IN-05: More primary drama in another solidly Republican district. Dan Burton suddenly looked vulnerable after winning his primary by only 7% against former Marion County coroner John McGoff last year. McGoff’s back for a re-run, and now three other GOPers are swarming the race: state rep. Mike Murphy, former state GOP chair Luke Messer, and former 7th district candidate Brose McVey. Marion County prosecutor Carl Brizzi also says he plans to run if Burton retires, although he seems likelier to retire in 2012.

NRCC: Seeing as how there may be a lot of major GOP primaries in 2010, the NRCC has announced that it may get involved in primaries this cycle, a departure from Tom Cole’s self-destructive hands-off policy last time. The NRCC has also privately signaled that they may let flawed or insufficently aggressive incumbents get picked off in the primaries rather than have to prop them up in the general.

FL-12: The GOP and Dems already have front-runners for the nominations in the open seat race (to be vacated by Adam Putnam), GOP state representative Dennis Ross and Democratic Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards. But Doug Tudor, who held Putnam under 60% last year without DCCC help, is coming back for another bite at the apple. State senator Paula Dockery is also considering jumping in on the GOP side.

Caucuses: Meow! (Or woof?) The Blue Dogs are suddenly sounding catty, miffed at seeing their position as the go-to caucus for watering down progressive legislation usurped by the New Democrats in the wake of the mortgage modification bill.

KS-Gov, KS-Sen: Sebelius to Take HHS

Kathleen Sebelius is on her way to Washington.

President Barack Obama on Saturday asked Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to be his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, according to two White House officials. The officials told CNN that Obama is expected to make the announcement Monday afternoon.

This will give current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson at least two years as Kansas governor (which may give him a leg up toward another term, if he wants, although he said he wouldn’t run for governor earlier). In terms of larger national implications, this takes Sebelius off the table for the open Kansas senate race in 2010, which she had a good shot to win according to Research 2000.

UPDATE (David): With this move, KS-Sen unfortunately comes off of our Races to Watch list.

NH-Sen: Newman Gets the Call; SSP Moves Race to “Tossup”

Lynch makes it official:

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch officially announced this afternoon that Republican J. Bonnie Newman will replace Judd Gregg in the US Senate if Gregg is confirmed as commerce secretary. […]

Newman, 63, who has not previously held elected office, was an assistant commerce secretary under President Reagan and also worked in President George H.W. Bush’s White House. She also worked for Gregg when he was a US representative and supported Lynch for governor. […]

Lynch said Newman will not run in 2010, and will not endorse any candidate in that race in a state turning more Democratic.

While the merits of the Gregg appointment are pretty troubling (after all, we are talking about a dude who, in the 1990s, voted to abolish the same Department that he is now going to run), this isn’t a bad deal for us. Newman couldn’t possibly be more conservative than Gregg, and she’s promising not to even make an endorsement for her successor.

Paul Hodes has an excellent shot at this next year.

UPDATE: With Gregg exiting the Senate, SSP has moved our rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“. With a competent campaign, though, Hodes should be able to earn himself an edge.

SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings: Initial Ratings for 2009-10

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2009-10 election cycle:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
IL (Burris)

NV (Reid)

WI (Feingold)
CO (Bennet) FL (Open)

KY (Bunning)

MO (Open)

OH (Open)
NH (Gregg)

NC (Burr)

PA (Specter)
LA (Vitter)

TX (Open)

Races to Watch:

     CA (Boxer)

     CT (Dodd)

     DE (Open)

     HI (Inouye)

     IA (Grassley)

     KS (Open)

     ND (Dorgan)

What follows are brief explanations of our initial ratings, including the “safe” races not listed above, in alphabetical order. DavidNYC, James L. and Crisitunity all contributed to this post – our individual contributions are noted for each entry. A permalink to our ratings is available in the right-hand sidebar and can also be found here.

  • Alabama – Richard Shelby (R): Safe R
  • Democrats in Alabama are focusing on the open gubernatorial seat – Shelby’s eye-bursting $13 million on hand is a major deterrent. Some folks have speculated about a retirement (he’s 74), but his press secretary told SSP he’s running again. (DavidNYC)

  • Alaska – Lisa Murkowski (R): Safe R
  • The excitement here, if any, will come from a potential R-on-R primary matchup featuring Sarah Palin vs. Lisa Murkowski. There really isn’t a Dem who could make this competitive, and in any case, there’s a long list of more appetizing targets ahead of Alaska. (D)

  • Arizona – John McCain (R): Safe R
  • When Obama tapped Janet Napolitano to run the Dept. of Homeland Security, we lost our best candidate to take on John McCain – though I’m not sure she would have jumped in anyhow. Given Obama’s unusual closeness with his former rival, I tend to doubt that any major names will get in. (D)

  • Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D): Safe D
  • Even though Arkansas broke sharply for McCain while most of the rest of the county got quite a bit bluer, there really is no Republican bench here. Only Mike Huckabee could make this race competitive, and he ain’t running. (D)

  • California – Barbara Boxer (D): RTW
  • Dick Mountjoy. Bill Jones. Tom Campbell. Matt Fong. Those are the last four California Republicans to run for Senate, and the best performance among them was Fong’s 43% against Boxer. But that was ten years ago, and things have only gotten worse for the Cali GOP as it has moved implacably rightward. The small chance that term-limited Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger runs makes this a “Race to Watch,” but if he bails, it’s Safe D. (D)

  • Colorado – Michael Bennet (D): Lean D
  • With Gov. Bill Ritter tapping a complete statewide unknown to replace Ken Salazar in the Senate, most assume that the GOP will mount a serious effort to dislodge former Denver Superintendent of Public Schools Michael Bennet as he faces voters for the first time in 2010. However, the bigger names seem to be taking a pass for now; both state AG John Suthers and ex-Rep. Scott McInnis have declined to run for the seat. While Bennet still has a lot to prove, he’s off to a good start. (James L.)

  • Connecticut – Chris Dodd (D): RTW
  • Chris Dodd’s favorability ratings in his home state have suffered ever since his very unsuccessful presidential run, an undertaking he was never quite able to explain to his constituents – or Iowa caucus-goers, for that matter. Allegations that he got favorable “VIP” loan terms from lender Countrywide haven’t helped. What makes this a Race to Watch is the fact that three reasonably strong Republicans could all potentially give it a gander: Gov. Jodi Rell and former Congressmen Rob Simmons and Chris Shays. But Dodd is a powerful fundraiser in a blue state, and no one has stepped up to the plate yet. (D)

  • Delaware – Ted Kaufman (OPEN) (D): RTW
  • This race will only become exciting if Rep. Mike Castle gets in (something that could conceivably happen, especially since life in the Senate minority is a lot better than life in the House minority). If not, DE-Sen should be solidly in our corner. (D)

  • Florida – Mel Martinez (OPEN) (R): Tossup
  • An open seat race in one of the nation’s most populous and most closely-split states? With Mel Martinez retiring, look for this one to be the marquee race of 2010. With popular Democratic state CFO Alex Sink taking a pass on the race, there’s no clear frontrunner in the race or even a frontrunner for either party’s nomination. On the Dem side, Rep. Kendrick Meek has already declared his interest, but he won’t be the only one. (Crisitunity)

  • Georgia – Johnny Isakson (R): Safe R
  • If Democrats field a strong candidate here, this race could conceivably be of some degree of interest, but it seems unlikely that guys like Jim Marshall or Thurbert Baker would be willing to give up their perches for a run against an untarnished Republican incumbent in a state that has routinely snakebitten Democrats since 2002. If a high profile primary challenger emerges to take on Isakson (as has been rumored), then perhaps this one can get interesting, but until then, all we have is a dollar and a pocketful of “ifs”. (J)

  • Hawaii – Daniel Inouye (D): RTW
  • Octogenarian Inouye has said he’s running again, and he should have a clear shot. The only wrinkle is if term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle makes a play. But she’s almost certainly better off biding her time, waiting for a senatorial retirement. (D)

  • Idaho – Mike Crapo (R): Safe R
  • Idaho Dems will be doing everything they can to protect Walt Minnick in his first re-election campaign. This race is not on anyone’s radar. (D)

  • Illinois – Roland Burris (D): Likely D
  • We are the junior senator from Illinois – for now. By all rights this seat should be Safe D, but if by some insane mix-up we wind up with, say, Roland Burris vs. Ron James Tiberius Kirk, IL-Sen could be in serious jeopardy. Our “Likely D” rating is more of a commentary on the wildly unsettled state of play than an indicator of our real expectations. This is a good example of a race that is especially difficult to assess so early on; the label on this sucker is definitely going to change, probably more than once. (D)

  • Indiana – Evan Bayh (D): Safe D
  • Sadly, Evan Bayh has never even come close to living up to the legacy of his father, populist hero Birch Bayh. But the Bayh name is still incredibly powerful in Indiana, and Evan has done a good job entrenching himself in office. Prominent Hoosier Republicans, scratching their heads as to how their state swung twenty points bluer in 2008, are almost certain to take a pass. (D)

  • Iowa – Chuck Grassley (R): RTW
  • Grassley’s been the subject of a lot of retirement rumors, if only because of his age. But his tight relationship with Max Baucus, and his career-long posture as more of a process guy than a legislation guy, probably mean that his life in the minority is a lot better than average. If he bails, though, this race will probably attract the likes of Rep. Bruce Braley and shoot straight to Tossup. (D)

  • Kansas – Sam Brownback (OPEN) (R): RTW
  • Several big-name Republicans have already declared for or openly contemplated getting into this race, so at least there ought to be a fun GOP primary. But unless term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is our nominee, Dems will be boxed out in this state (which hasn’t sent a Dem to the Senate since before your mother was born). (D)

  • Kentucky – Jim Bunning (R): Tossup
  • With Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn both trying to shove Jim Bunning out the door, and Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo announcing his intention to seek a rematch, Bunning is feeling the squeeze from all sides. While a Bunning retirement would almost certainly be met with cheer from Senate Republicans, for now we have to assume that the doddery Senator is sincere in his desire to seek another term (and he certainly seems annoyed at any suggestion to the contrary). If he does indeed face the voters again, Democrats are eager to pound the notoriously poor campaigner with full force in 2010 after failing to to adequately fund the upstart Mongiardo in ’04. A Bunning retirement or a nasty Democratic primary could cause us to readjust the scales here, but for now, the Republicans begin this race with no clear advantage whatsoever. (J)

  • Louisiana – David Vitter (R): Likely R
  • While some observers have singled out “Diaper” Dave Vitter as an incumbent facing serious jeopardy in 2010, we’re not really as sanguine about Democratic fortunes in a state that actually took an even sharper turn toward the GOP in 2008 than it did four years previous. If Republicans outraged over Vitter’s love of prostitutes manage to coalesce around a serious primary challenger, then we might see more of an opening for a Democratic challenge. (J)

  • Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (D): Safe D
  • Even if Mikulski, one of the few Dems who might be contemplating retirement, were to call it quits, we have a deep bench here and the GOP has… well, they have 83-year-old Rep. Roscoe Bartlett – so old he was originally elected on the Whig line. Hell, Tommy Carcetti would beat his ass. Next. (D)

  • Missouri – Kit Bond (OPEN) (R): Tossup
  • Kit Bond handed Democrats a major gift here by announcing his retirement earlier this month, but if this race follows the pattern of most other recent statewide elections in Missouri, it’ll be a major battle all the way through election day. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan seems set to run for the Democrats, and she’ll be a strong nominee against a Republican field that is still very much in flux. (J)

  • Nevada – Harry Reid (D): Likely D
  • Reid seems to have been scarred for life by his 400-vote win over John Ensign in 1998 and has run scared ever since. His perpetual defensive crouch has hurt Dems on the Hill, though it may save him against a potential strong run by either Rep. Dean Heller or former Rep. Jon Porter – or it might make him look like a weakling Dem from the bad old 2002 era. No matter what, Reid’s prominent position means that protecting him will be a top priority for Bob Menendez. Knowing that, top-shelf Republicans might decline, which could return Reid to Safe status. (D)

  • New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (R): Lean R
  • Paul Hodes seems very likely to run here, and if he does, he’s going to give Gregg a very serious race, and probably move the needle to Tossup within a year or so (if not before then). It’s also possible that Gregg will retire, in which case Dems will be in the driver’s seat. (D)

  • New York-A – Chuck Schumer (D): Safe D
  • You cannot even hope to contain Chuck Schumer. (D)

  • New York-B – Kirsten Gillibrand (D): Safe D
  • It’s clear that Gov. David Paterson picked Gillibrand because she checks off a number of boxes – woman, upstate, prodigious fundraiser – and because she has considerable political skills. Peter King has been whining about the choice, but only because he’s bummed he won’t have the chance to take on Caroline Kennedy. Even if a Dem primary does materialize (something I’m skeptical of), there just really isn’t a single GOPer in the state who can make this interesting. (And no, Rudy ain’t gonna run.) (D)

  • North Carolina – Richard Burr (R): Lean R
  • Richard Burr faces several disadvantages in his quest for his first re-election: the fact that North Carolina is a lot bluer than it was in 2004, and his status as one of the Senate’s most anonymous back-benchers. With a number of top-tier Democrats eyeing the race (AG Roy Cooper, former Treasurer Richard Moore, Rep. Heath Shuler) and polling very close to Burr, he looks to face a much harder fight than he did four years ago. (And for the superstitious among us, remember that this is the “cursed seat,” which no one has successfully retained for decades.) (C)

  • North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (D): RTW
  • Byron Dorgan has ensconced himself quite nicely in North Dakota, increasing his already-sizable victory margins with every race (59% to 63% to 68%). The only dark cloud on the prairie is a possible run by popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven, hence the Race to Watch tag. (D)

  • Ohio – George Voinovich (OPEN) (R): Tossup
  • George Voinovich’s retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Democrats. Ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman seems to have the GOP nomination locked down, while the Democratic field remains unsettled (although currently Rep. Tim Ryan seems very  much inclined to do it, while Lt. Gov Lee Fisher seems leaning against). Polling gives Portman a small edge right now, but once the attacks on his free-trading, loyal-Bushie ways begin, look for this to turn into a barnburner. (C)

  • Oklahoma – Tom Coburn (R): Safe R
  • Tom Coburn is a crazy bastard. Tom Coburn is a disgrace to the Senate. Tom Coburn has single-handedly held up tons of popular legislation to suit his personal whims. And yet Tom Coburn is very, very likely to remain a United State Senator come 2011. (D)

  • Oregon – Ron Wyden (D): Safe D
  • Ron Wyden has drawn third-tier opposition in his last two runs for the Senate. With the state’s GOP bench in shambles and anyone left capable of playing statewide (Greg Walden, the newly-unemployed Gordon Smith) eyeing the open governor’s race, this is likely to continue. (C)

  • Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (R): Lean R
  • Democrats’ chances at dislodging Arlen Specter may have gotten a little tougher, with Club for Growth honcho Pat Toomey training his circular firing squad on PA-Gov instead of a repeat primary challenge to Specter. Instead, the aging Specter gets to save his strength for the general election, where Rep. Allyson Schwartz seems to be on track to take the Dem nomination. With Pennsylvania, and especially Specter’s power center in the Philly suburbs, gradually becoming bluer, though, this still looks to be a very competitive race. (C)

  • South Carolina – Jim DeMint (R): Safe R
  • DeMint, unlike his Palmetto State colleague Lindsay Graham, has established his conservative bona fides quite firmly – which is to say, he’s a raging winger. In South Carolina, that probably helps, rather than hurts, most statewide Republicans as it ensures sufficient enthusiasm from the base. Dems don’t really have much of a bench here. (D)

  • South Dakota – John Thune (R): Safe R
  • Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is the only Dem who could give Thune a race, but if she leaves the House, it’ll be to run for Governor, not Senator. (D)

  • Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): Likely R
  • KBH is running for governor against incumbent Rick Perry. The only issue is when she’ll resign, triggering a special election that’s certain to be a free-for-all. Dems don’t have a great shot unless they can rally around a single candidate, something complicated by both former state Comptroller Jim Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White both saying they’ll run. Plus, Texas Dems will be focused like a laser on winning the state House back, so as to have an all-important seat at the redistricting table. Still, this oughta be fun, and anything can happen in a special like this. (D)

  • Utah – Robert Bennett (R): Safe R
  • Does anyone know if Jeopardy mega-champion Ken Jennings is a Democrat? UPDATE: So he is! I should really read the articles I link to. Well, now all we have to do is convince Jennings to run. He’s probably way too smart for that, though. (D)

  • Vermont – Patrick Leahy (D): Safe D
  • Gov. Jim Douglas is the only Republican of any stature in the state, but the one poll of the race so far has Leahy cruising 58-36. It’s remarkable that a state which went Dem just once in the 20th century before 1992 could have turned so sharply blue (Vermont didn’t even vote for FDR in 1936!), but there you have it. (D)

  • Washington – Patty Murray (D): Safe D
  • Patty Murray may be one of the most misunderestimated members of the Senate, as several highly-touted U.S. Representatives (Linda Smith, George Nethercutt) found out to their dismay. With Dino Rossi heading back to the private sector bathed in two-time loser stank, and Cathy McMorris Rodgers focusing on the House leadership track, it’s looking like she’ll draw only minor opposition in 2010. (C)

  • Wisconsin – Russ Feingold (D): Likely D
  • Feingold always seems to draw a respectable challenge, perhaps in no small part due to his iconoclasm and fundraising purity, but it remains to be seen whether this cycle will be the one that finally breaks the pattern. Rep. Paul Ryan is said to be keeping an eye on the seat, but otherwise, the Wisconsin GOP has precious few weapons in their arsenal. (J)

    SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (2010)

    Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
    DE (Open) CA (Boxer)

    CT (Open)
    AK (Murkowski)

    CO (Bennet)

    IL (Open)

    NV (Reid)

    PA (Open)

    WA (Murray)

    WV (Open)
    KY (Open)

    MO (Open)

    WI (Feingold)
    AR (Lincoln)

    FL (Open)

    LA (Vitter)

    NC (Burr)

    NH (Open)

    Safe R:

         IN (Open)

         ND (Open)

    2010 Final Ratings:

         MA (Open): Tossup

    Last Updated: November 1, 2010 at 10:00 AM

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