Swing State Project Race Rating Changes, 1/9/2010

The Swing State Project recently announced changes to ten race ratings. Since then, we’ve added three more races to the list (MA-Sen, IL-Gov & OH-Gov). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

  • AR-Sen (Lincoln): Lean D to Tossup
  • With Chris Dodd out of the picture, conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around Blanche Lincoln as the Democrats’ most vulnerable Senate incumbent. She has a few things still in her favor: a sizable warchest, a 2010 ballot shared with popular Dem governor Mike Beebe, and most importantly, no top-tier opponents – just a grab-bag of Republican odds and ends in a state with little GOP bench (with state Sen. Gilbert Baker the main contender).

    However, the decline in Democratic fortunes over the last few years was perhaps most precipitous of all states in Arkansas, and some of that has rubbed off on Lincoln. She’s trailing even her weaker Republican opponents according to Rasmussen, while other pollsters find the Lincoln/Baker matchup a dead heat. Her conservative positioning on health care has fizzled, having served only to enrage her base while winning her no new fans on the righ. Lincoln, who may also face a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has little time left to right her capsizing ship. (C)

  • AZ-Sen (McCain): Safe R to RTW
  • Former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has put this once-sleepy race on the map. Hayworth, a bull-headed conservative, has been making noises about challenging John McCain in the Republican primary, recently saying that he’s “testing the waters” for a potential bid. Even though the allegedly Mavericky McCain pretty much dropped all pretense of having anything in common with Democrats once he began his presidential run, somehow he’s still mistrusted by the right. When the tribe speaks, it may well be McCain who gets voted off the island.

    Sadly, Democrats don’t really have anyone who could capitalize on a potential Hayworth coup. The only announced candidate is one Rudy Garcia, former mayor of the town of Bell Gardens (pop. 45,000). Not so helpfully, Bell Gardens is in California. This race seems ripe for a young up-and-comer looking to raise his or her profile – no one will blame you for losing to John McCain, and hey, you might get a chance to take on Hayworth instead. Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, who has formed an exploratory committee, might fit the bill. It’ll be a while yet before we know if Team Blue can make any waves here, though. (D)

  • CO-Sen (Bennet): Lean D to Tossup
  • Michael Bennet, the former Denver schools superintendent appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat, has had a year to introduce himself to his constituents and still doesn’t seem to have made much of an impression. Bennet may be well-connected and a monster fundraiser, but he seems a little short on charisma and retail politicking talent. For a while this year, he seemed safe simply by virtue of having third-tier opposition, but with the entry of former Republican Lt. Governor Jane Norton this summer, he’s facing a competitive race. And things are complicated by a primary challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, although Romanoff has seemed lately to struggle to get any traction (and may even change over to the now-open gubernatorial race).

    It’s hard to get a handle on this contest, as only Rasmussen has been polling it lately. They’ve been finding leads over both Bennet and Romanoff for Norton and some of the Republicans’ lesser lights as well. The Democrats’ decline in Colorado this year has been across the boards (affecting Obama approvals and Gov. Bill Ritter), and that seems to be hampering the blank-slate-ish Bennet as well. One item in Bennet’s favor, though, is that the withdrawal of the unpopular Ritter and a potential upgrade to the better-liked John Hickenlooper may help pull him across the finish line in November. (C)

  • IA-Sen (Grassley): RTW to Likely R
  • Chuck Grassley is a seemingly entrenched, allegedly sometimes “moderate” Republican, sitting on a decent ($4.4 mil) pile of cash in a state which has elected him five times – in other words, a tough nut to crack. Dems did a good job landing a very credible candidate, though – former gubernatorial candidate and super-lawyer Roxanne Conlin. Conlin is personally wealthy and, as one-time president of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, she ought to have good connections to other well-to-do attorneys. We’ll be watching her fourth-quarter fundraising reports very closely.

    Meanwhile, Grassley’s approval ratings – which typically were sky-high for most of his career – have slipped in recent months. He’s still the heavy favorite here, and Conlin has a lot of work to do. But this race is now officially on the map. (D)

  • IL-Sen (Open): Lean D to Tossup
  • Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias’s baggage is well-known at this point, so there’s no need for us to rehash his troubles here. Suffice it to say we’re concerned that the battle-hardened GOP Rep. Mark Kirk can exploit these weaknesses in a general election. Democratic internal polling (from primary opponent David Hoffman and from Giannoulias’ own pollster) has placed Giannoulias either down or up on Kirk by a scant three points. This suggests to us that Giannoulias can’t count on the usual generous margin of error that this Dem-leaning state has given to the likes of Rod Blagojevich in the past.

    It’s still possible that Hoffman or Cheryle Jackson could win the Democratic nomination, but the primary is less than a month away, and an upset seems unlikely. At the same time, any chance that teabagger Patrick Hughes might ding up Kirk are mostly evaporating, given the short time left. Still, the general election is a long ways off, and a well-disciplined campaign could dispel our doubts. But for now, it’s too difficult to give the Democratic field the edge. (J)

  • MA-Sen (Open): Safe D to Lean D
  • Democrats shouldn’t have to be at all worried about Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat – and yet, with the special election just a week away, here we are. The DSCC is sending out a fundraising email on behalf of Martha Coakley. Meanwhile, big gun Bill Clinton will campaign with Coakley next week. And there’s probably more to come.

    But why? A Rasmussen poll showed a nine-point race between Coakley and GOPer Scott Brown, while Tom Jensen at PPP is about to release a survey he’s touted as showing a “losable” race for Team Blue. If internal polls were showing a prettier picture, we’d be seeing them. While it’s hard to believe things have come to this in the state of Massachusetts, many have faulted a lackluster Democratic campaign and general Democratic complacency – the sorts of things we saw a bunch of in 2009. At least there finally seems to be a sense of urgency about this race, though let’s hope it’s not too little, too late. (D)

  • PA-Sen (Specter): Lean D to Tossup
  • Some pretty credible polling has shown Democrats Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak in a dogfight against Republican Pat Toomey. After Specter switched, it was difficult to fathom  a Toomey win. But as is the case in most states, the underlying environment has become a lot less favorable for Democrats since last April, and Toomey’s taken advantage of the opportunity to keep his head down, stockpile arms, and refrain from saying anything insane. Indeed, Toomey’s lack of a primary challenged has allowed him to practice his crossover pitches to Democrats and independents (e.g. endorsing Sonia Sotomayor). After the Democrats settle their contentious primary, Toomey will need to be held to account, but that will be an expensive and surprisingly arduous task. (J)

  • TX-Sen (Hutchison): Likely R to RTW
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison has changed her mind about resigning her Senate seat a thousand times, and honestly, who the hell knows what she’s going to do at this point. One report says she’ll only step down if she beats Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP gubernatorial primary; another says she’ll bail no matter what happens. And even if she does win the Republican nod, she may want to hold on to her current job just a bit longer, given that she’d face a stiff Democratic challenge in November from Houston mayor Bill White. Since this Class I seat ordinarily wouldn’t be up again until 2012, we’re downgrading this contest to Race to Watch status until KBH actually makes a decision. (D)

    Gubernatorial races:

  • IL-Gov (Quinn): RTW to Likely D
  • Republicans succeeded in bumping this race up a notch with the recruitment of former state AG Jim Ryan, who was last seen losing this race to Rod Blagojevich by a 52-45 spread in 2002. Ryan is a credible contender, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is currently on the receiving end of hard hits from his primary opponent, state Comptroller Dan Hynes. There’s still plenty of time for this race to evolve, and if Illinois winds up like many of its Rust Belt brethren, this race will only get more competitive for the Democrats, not less so. But in the meantime, we’re starting off with a rating of Likely D. (J)

  • KS-Gov (Open): Likely R to Safe R
  • In November, the Dems finally landed a plausible candidate in an admittedly extremely uphill race, retired pharmaceutical executive Tom Wiggans. Unfortunately, just a month later, he dropped out. Dems are now trying to find a replacement, but it won’t be easy. Gov. Mark Parkinson (who filled Kathleen Sebelius’s spot when she joined the Obama administration) was asked if he’d reconsider his earlier decision not to run; the good news is that he didn’t offer a flat-out rejection, and he’d almost certainly be our strongest candidate. But unless and until he or someone else credible bites the bullet, this race is now Safe Republican. (D)

  • OH-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup
  • Gov. Ted Strickland was riding a wave of popularity for most of his first term, but he’s fallen victim to the same plague that’s afflicted many other Rust Belt governors. His approvals have dwindled alongside his state’s economy, particularly hard-hit by the decline in the manufacturing sector – and his fate is probably linked with how well the jobs market improves in the next year.

    Strickland is facing off against ex-Rep. John Kasich, whose supply-side, free-trading economic conservatism doesn’t initially seem a good fit for blue-collar Ohio. Perhaps Strickland can regain the upper hand if he’s able to highlight Kasich’s relationship to those who helped cause the economic woes buffeting Ohio. But in the meantime, Kasich, functioning as something of a Generic R, is currently leading Strickland according to Rasmussen and polling close to him according to other pollsters. (C)

  • OR-Gov (Open): Lean D to Likely D
  • Here’s one of the few moves in the Democrats’ favor, and it has less to do with the national or even state atmosphere as it does with a complete recruiting failure on the Republicans’ part. Rep. Greg Walden was about the only Republican with a shot at making this a truly competitive race, and he said no thanks. Likable young state Sen. Jason Atkinson wouldn’t have likely won, but could have at least made it a spirited, high-energy race – but he, too, said no. That left the Republicans with an almost comedic assortment of spare parts: hopelessly moderate former Treasurer candidate Allen Alley, long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and anti-tax initiative huckster Bill Sizemore, who’s likelier to be in prison come 2011 than in the governor’s mansion. Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley seems left as the de facto frontrunner by virtue of his name recognition, personal pocketbook, and pleasant persona, but even party faithful seem flummoxed by his utter lack of substance so far.

    The Democrats are facing a primary between two of their top statewide figures, ex-Governor John Kitzhaber and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (with the outside possibility that populist Rep. Peter DeFazio may still join them). While it’s hard to imagine a primary between those two amiable guys turning rancorous, even a depleted and wounded primary victor would still have to be heavily favored against whatever the GOP offers up. (C)

  • TX-Gov (Perry): RTW to Likely R
  • Despite facing a challenging environment elsewhere in the country, Democrats appear to have their best shot at taking back the governor’s office in Texas in over a decade. Why? Because Team Blue has landed a legitimate top-flight candidate in outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White. White has broad appeal in metro Houston, which will be a big asset for Democrats, especially if GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s primary challenge against incumbent Rick Perry results in serious intra-party damage for the Republicans.

    Perry, who has to be considered the primary favorite at this point, is coming off an underwhelming 39% victory in 2006, making him about as appealing a target for Democrats as one can reasonably hope for. In truth, a Perry vs. White general election match-up is probably a shade better for Dems than “Likely R”, but we’re going to err on the side of caution for the time being. In terms of money raised, GOTV, polling, and messaging, White has a lot to prove before we can talk about Texas Democrats snapping their painfully long statewide losing skid. (J)

    CT-Sen: Blumenthal Crushes Opposition; SSP Moves To Lean D

    Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, registered voters):

    Richard Blumenthal (D): 59

    Rob Simmons (R): 28

    Richard Blumenthal (D): 60

    Linda McMahon (R): 28

    Richard Blumenthal (D): 63

    Peter Schiff (R): 23

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    We got some tweets yesterday from PPP that they found Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal leading Republican opposition in the Connecticut Senate race by “uber-safe” margins. It seems like the message from that poll was received, as in the intervening day, Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Blumenthal finally got took the plunge and is running for the open seat. With everyone wondering about the ramifications of this stunning swap, this has to be one of the most eagerly awaited polls I’ve seen.

    The numbers are, indeed, stunning. Blumenthal routs his Republican opposition, with the closest race against ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a whopping 31-point margin. Blumenthal’s favorables are 59/19, including 71% favorable among Dems, 60% among indies, and even a 37/35 favorable among Republicans.

    This contrasts with Chris Dodd’s numbers: losing 44-40 to Simmons, tying Linda McMahon at 43-43, and beating Peter Schiff 44-37. While that’s actually a little better than some other recent polls had shown, it still indicates pretty clearly why he felt it was time to step aside. PPP also tested Rep. Chris Murphy, who seemed like a likely Plan C but seems highly unlikely to enter now that Blumenthal is already in. Murphy beats Simmons 42-35, McMahon 43-36, and Schiff 44-28: again, indicating that the problem was specific to Dodd (who clocked in with a pitiable 29/57 approval), and not with Connecticut suddenly turning against Democrats.

    With this, we’re moving the race rating to Lean Democratic. Why only Lean D? (This may actually disappoint many of our salivating fans.) Our rationale is that Blumenthal is untested in terms of running for federal office, with potentially “mile wide, inch deep” support that comes with name rec from decades as the state’s AG that may dissipate somewhat in a heated election, especially one in an unfavorable year for Democrats. However, we’re doing so out of an abundance of caution, and expect to move this rating further in the Democratic direction if additional polls are in the same range.

    RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

    ND-Sen: Dorgan To Retire; SSP Moves to Lean R

    I don’t think anybody saw this coming — North Dakota’s long-time Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan is planning to retire. His statement today reads in part:

    Although I still have a passion for public service and enjoy my work in the Senate, I have other interests and I have other things I would like to pursue outside of public life.  I have written two books and have an invitation from a publisher to write two more books.  I would like to do some teaching and would also like to work on energy policy in the private sector.

    A recent Rasmussen poll had shown Dorgan losing by double-digits to Republican Governor John Hoeven. Hoeven, however, hadn’t taken any steps to get into the race; it’s unclear whether Dorgan had advance notice of Hoeven starting to move toward entering the race and decided to get out of the way, or the 67-year-old Dorgan, as implied in his statement, legitimately had had enough and was ready to try something other than a fourth term. At any rate, it seems much likelier now that Hoeven gets into the race.

    On the Dem side, long-time at large Rep. Earl Pomeroy seems like a possible candidate to try for a promotion. (At 58, he’s still within Senate range.) However, the Democratic bench here seems to pretty much begin and end with Pomeroy, and he’d still start at a deep disadvantage against Hoeven, and maybe a lesser disadvantage against another statewide Republican official. (Pomeroy running would also expose us to the likely loss of ND-AL.) With the lack of possibilities beyond Pomeroy, we’re moving this race to Lean Republican, with a likelihood that it may move further in the Republicans’ favor as things unfold.

    RaceTracker: ND-Sen

    Swing State Project Changes Ratings on Ten Races

    The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on seven Senate and three gubernatorial races:

    • AR-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
    • AZ-Sen: Safe R to RTW
    • CO-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
    • IA-Sen: RTW to Likely R
    • IL-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
    • PA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
    • TX-Sen: Likely R to RTW

    • KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
    • OR-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
    • TX-Gov: RTW to Likely R

    We’ll be posting full write-ups for all of these changes soon. In the meantime, the end of the year seems like a good time to post our full ratings charts, especially given the number of changes we’ve just made.

    Our Senate chart:

    Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
    AR (Lincoln)

    CO (Bennet)

    CT (Dodd)

    DE (Open)

    IL (Open)

    KY (Open)

    MO (Open)

    NH (Open)

    NV (Reid)

    OH (Open)

    PA (Specter)
    NC (Burr) FL (Open)

    IA (Grassley)

    LA (Vitter)

    Races to Watch:

         AZ (McCain)

         CA (Boxer)

         HI (Inouye)

         ND (Dorgan)

         NY-B (Gillibrand)

         TX (Hutchison)

         UT (Bennett)

         WI (Feingold)

    Our gubernatorial chart:

    Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
    MD (O’Malley)

    NM (Open)

    OR (Open)
    CA (Open)

    HI (Open)

    ME (Open)

    OH (Strickland)
    AZ (Brewer)

    CO (Ritter)

    CT (Open)

    FL (Open)

    IA (Culver)

    MA (Patrick)

    MI (Open)

    MN (Open)

    NV (Gibbons)

    PA (Open)

    RI (Open)

    VT (Open)

    WI (Open)
    GA (Open)

    OK (Open)

    TN (Open)
    AL (Open)

    SC (Open)

    SD (Open)

    TX (Perry)

    WY (Open)

    Races to Watch:

         AK (Parnell)

         IL (Quinn)

         NY (Paterson)

         UT (Herbert)

    SSP Daily Digest: 11/18

    CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has picked up a major critic in her Senate run: one of her former employees, in the form of 66-year-old former pro wrestler Superstar Billy Graham. Graham is a physical wreck from his days in the WWF, thanks to steroid abuse and a number of hip replacements, with no pension or health care from WWE. He plans to keep dogging the McMahon campaign as McMahon keeps trying to sanitize her previous career.

    FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is dropping the smiley above-the-fray approach; he’s promising to step up direct engagements with Marco Rubio, now that it looks like we’ve got a real race on our hands. Crist will go after Rubio for failure to move important pieces of conservative legislation during his time as state House speaker.

    KS-Sen, KS-04: This seems to exist mostly as whispers and rumors, but there’s word that Rep. Todd Tiahrt, not getting much traction in polls or fundraising or endorsements, may drop out of the GOP Senate primary against Rep. Jerry Moran. (Tiahrt’s people pushed back against the idea, saying they’re relying on movement grassroots forces that things like “polls” don’t pick up on. They actually also tried redbaiting Moran over his sponsorship of legislation to allow American travel to Cuba, indicating they won’t go quietly.) The question of Tiahrt running for House instead also presents a conundrum for state Rep. Raj Goyle in KS-04, who’s turning into one of the Dems’ best 2010 challengers — would Goyle be better off running in an open seat, or against the 16-year vet Tiahrt in what’s shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year?

    KY-Sen: There had been some talk about Cathy Bailey (a wealthy Bush Pioneer and W’s ambassador to Latvia), back when the GOP was still casting about for an alternative to Jim Bunning. All of a sudden, she’s back, saying she’s considering the race and sounding none too pleased with Trey Grayson (too “moderate” for her tastes) and Rand Paul (too “extreme”). I can’t see her winning the primary, but with her money, she could conceivably peel away enough mainstream GOP votes from Grayson to flip the primary to Paul.

    MT-Sen: It looks like Max Baucus may have suffered some residual damage from his high-profile role in health care reform; he’s down to 44% approval, from 67% approval at this point two years ago, according to an MSU-Billings poll. He’s lagging all other statewide officials, including Jon Tester (56/25) and Brian Schweitzer (62/20). The problem seems to be that Baucus gets only 67% approval among Dems, compared with 81% for Tester and 82% for Schweitzer; a plurality of Montanans, including 73% of Dems, support a public option, so Baucus’s decline among Dems doesn’t seem hard to diagnose.

    NC-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker said he won’t be running for Senate, although he’d strongly considered it. With Rep. Bob Etheridge’s recent “no” also, it’s looking more and more like SoS Elaine Marshall will have a lightly contested path to the Dem nomination (her main opponent is attorney Kenneth Lewis).

    NH-Sen: One other important “no” in a Senate race: RNC member and one-time House candidate Sean Mahoney, who had been making lots of candidate-like noises, said he won’t run in the GOP field. If you look a few moves ahead in the chess game, that’s good news for us, as having Mahoney out of the race means fewer votes split on the field’s right flank, giving right-winger Ovide Lamontagne a stronger shot at taking out establishment fave Kelly Ayotte, which would give Dems a much weaker opponent in the general.

    WI-Sen: Former Gov. (and brief presidential candidate) Tommy Thompson isn’t ruling out a Senate bid, although it seems unlikely; he’ll make a decision “next year.” Thompson’s rather strange statement is that he’s “looking at governor, looking at senator, and looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.” Seeing as how this is similar to the NY-Sen-B or ND-Sen races (an unlikely challenge to materialize, but one that would be a hot race if it did), SSP is moving the Wisconsin race back on to the big board, as a Race to Watch.

    WV-Sen: Congratulations to Robert Byrd, who hit an astonishing milestone today: the longest-serving Congressperson of all time. Byrd (a Representative from 1952-1958 and a Senator since 1958) has been in Congress for more than 25% of Congress’s existence.

    KS-Gov: Kansas Dems have finally nailed down a solid candidate to take on retiring Sen. Sam Brownback in the gubernatorial race. Retired pharmaceutical company executive Tom Wiggans will carry the flag for the Democrats in this uphill fight. (H/t Mike Nellis.)

    NY-19: I was tempted to put this story on the FP just so I could run the headline “Ball busted!” Roll Call is sounding pretty pissed off at having gotten initially snookered by Greg Ball and his sketchy poll from yesterday. His internal poll only sampled two-thirds of the district (Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties), oversampling Republican Putnam County and leaving out Orange and Rockland Counties altogether, counties where Hall won last year. Ball’s backers say they’ll do a more traditional poll soon and are still pleased with their findings.

    PA-10: Good news for the GOP: they’ve found an elected official who’s interested in going up against Blue Dog Dem Chris Carney in the sprawling, red-leaning 10th, where they’ve been struggling with recruitment. The bad news is: Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk is 27 (and is hard-pressed to look 17 — check out the photo at the link), and Snyder County, deep in the hills, has a population of 38K and is at the wrong end of the district from the population centers.

    WI-08: A line is forming among GOP challengers to Rep. Steve Kagen, and now there’s a former state legislator among them. Ex-state Rep. Terry McCormick served three terms and then lost the 2006 primary in WI-08 against then-state Rep. John Gard when it was an open seat, and now she’s back for another try. There are a couple county supervisors in the race, but the NRCC seems to like Reid Ribble, a businessman who can bring his own money to the race.

    CA-St. Ass.: Republican Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby finished first in the special election (to replace “Hot Mike” Duvall) in AD-72 last night. His 37% wasn’t enough to avoid a second round. He’ll face Democrat John MacMurray (who finished second at 27%) and a Green Party candidate; two other Republicans, Linda Ackerman and Richard Faher, pulled in 20% and 13% respectively, so if Norby consolidates the GOP votes in this red-leaning seat (which falls within CA-40 in the US House) he’s on track to holding the seat.

    NRCC: Pete Sessions, emulating the Dems’ spread-the-field strategy of recent cycles, says he wants to have 435 districts that Republicans are playing in. He may have missed an important piece of information: the Illinois filing deadline is past, and the Republicans are already guaranteed not to be playing in IL-01 and IL-04. Well, 433 is close.

    Mayors: There are dueling internal polls of the upcoming Houston mayoral runoff, one of the two big mayoral races left on the table (Atlanta being the other one). City controller Annise Parker leads former city attorney Gene Locke, 47-34 in her own poll, while in Locke’s poll, Parker has a narrower 43-39 lead.

    Demographics: NDN, a liberal think tank that spends a lot of time on Latino issues, has done some projecting of 2010 re-apportionment, and likes what it sees. They see Texas gaining four seats, and possibly three of those could be drawn as Hispanic-influence seats in Dallas, Houston, and the Rio Grande Valley. They also see Florida gaining a seat, and recommend creation of a Hispanic-influence seat in central Florida (where much of the state’s growth, both overall and among Hispanics, has been).

    Parties: CNN has a poll that points to the current disparity between the parties: Democrats are a lot more tolerant of the big tent. 58% of Dems prefer to see nomination of candidates who can beat the Republicans, even if they don’t agree on all the issues, while 51% of Republicans prefer to see candidates who agree with them even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democrat.

    Votes: Donkeylicious has an interesting project reminiscent of SSP’s own PVI/Vote Index, looking at Dems and seeing how they match up with their districts’ leans. A lot of the same names show up among bad Dems as we found, but they do some interesting breaking things down by region and by freshman or sophomore status.

    DE-Sen, DE-AL: Harold & Kumar Go to Mike Castle

    Politico:

    Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.

    Castle will be making a formal announcement at noon in his hometown of Wilmington. Castle had been debating whether to run for higher office, or retire after serving nine terms in the House.

    I’m honestly surprised that Castle, who’s getting long in the tooth, agreed to fight for this four-year term. I’m also not used to Republicans actually having so much honest-to-God success in the recruiting department, but the NRSC has been on an absolute tear this year. Castle will be a formidable candidate for the GOP here; in all three polls that we’ve seen of this state in the past year, Castle has edged Democratic AG Beau Biden by anywhere from 5 to 21 points. That, combined with Castle’s long statewide electoral track record, is enough for us to change our rating of this race from Safe D (RTW) to Tossup.

    RaceTracker Wiki: DE-Sen

    Swing State Project Race Ratings Changes, 10/5/2009

    The Swing State Project announced changes to eight race ratings recently. Since then, we’ve added one more race to the list (VA-Gov), and we’re changing the rating once more on another (AR-Sen). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

    Senate races:

  • AR-Sen (Lincoln): Safe D to Lean D
  • When we were debating our ratings changes a few weeks ago, we decided to push the Arkansas Senate contest to Likely D. But that was then. We’re now moving the race to Lean D, and even that is probably pretty generous. All the recent polling on this race has shown Blanche Lincoln to be in pretty dire shape – R2K, PPP, and Rasmussen all have her mired in the 40s. The latter two both have her losing to the most recent & credible entrant into the race, non-crazy state Sen. Gilbert Baker.

    Arkansas is a rough state which really hates Obama. While it had for a long time been much friendlier to Dems than most of its Southern neighbors, it now seems to be playing catch-up with a vengeance. In a word, Lincoln is in trouble. Probably the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column at this point is that Gilbert is still something of an unknown quantity. We’ll be watching him, and especially his upcoming fundraising reports, very closely. (D)

  • CA-Sen (Boxer): Safe D to RTW
  • You might recall this race started out as a Race to Watch, then vanished once it was clear that Arnold Schwarzenegger was not going to run against Barbara Boxer. We’re giving it a second look, though, because the NRSC has found another lesser celebrity, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Fiorina (assuming she runs – she’s still in exploratory mode) has a few things going for her: She’s moderate enough to get some traction in the general (assuming she gets by conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the primary), the NRSC clearly will go all out to help her out, and, most of all, she has gobs of money she can spend on herself. On the downside, she was very publicly and unceremoniously dumped from HP after presiding over its downfall, and she doesn’t have much political discipline yet, as seen by her getting muzzled after a brief stint as a McCain surrogate. Polls have ranged from single-digit to 20-point gaps in favor of Boxer, so the race bears further watching. (C)

  • NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
  • Harry Reid may have more coin the in the bank than the Bible’s got psalms, but that can’t cover up for the fact that Nevadans have downright frosty feelings for him. Despite avoiding a challenge from any top-shelf GOPers, poll after poll after poll after poll after poll has shown that Reid’s B-grade opponents are all clobbering him in the court of public opinion. (It also looks like Reid might have even mustered a B+ challenger, in the form of state Sen. Mark Amodei.)

    Making matters worse for the embattled Majority Leader is the fact that son Rory Reid has a clear, uncontested path to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Rory seems to be one of the weakest candidates the Democrats could muster for this race, and pappy is apparently unhappy that the Reid name will be so over-exposed on the Nevada ballot next year. Like a major collision that can’t be prevented, the trajectory of this race is both catastrophically ugly and mesmerizing at once. (J)

  • NY-Sen-B (Gillibrand): Safe D to RTW
  • The New York State Republican Party is in a shambles, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand looks strong, with lots of money in the bank, endorsements galore, and powerful friends behind her. The only possible wrinkle here is named George Pataki. The former governor has been floated as a potential challenger for some time, but he doesn’t seem to have actually indicated any interest. Still, out of an abundance of caution, we’re going to slot this in as a Race to Watch, in case Pataki does get in. (D)

    Gubernatorial races:

  • CO-Gov (Ritter): Lean D to Tossup
  • Bill Ritter is being squeezed from all sides. Not only is there new evidence that Democrats are beginning to lag in Colorado after several cycles of strong growth, Ritter has succeeded in making enemies out of friends by vetoing every major labor-friendly bill that the Democratic legislature has churned out over his first term. Polls have shown Ritter in trouble against his Republican opponents, and it wouldn’t be surprising if many rank-and-file Democrats don’t feel compelled to bail Ritter’s ass out at on Election Day next year. (J)

  • IA-Gov (Culver): RTW to Likely D
  • Freshman Gov. Chet Culver’s approval ratings have been hard to pin down – as low as 36% in August according to SUSA before rebounding to 41% this month, but 50% according to a recent Selzer survey, down from 55% in April. Luckily, though, Culver hasn’t drawn much in the way of opposition – yet. But in this toxic political environment, few incumbents are truly safe, and regardless of which pollster you believe, it would be hard to describe Culver’s approval ratings as “good.”

    Even more worrisome, former Gov. Terry Branstad is supposedly considering the race, and his favorables are quite strong. The good news, though, is that Branstad hasn’t been in office for a decade, and his numbers now are a lot better than they were at the end of his tenure. That will change once he faces a real campaign. Plus, Branstad’s entrance might trigger a civil war between his “moderate” faction and the conservative base. Still, Branstad would be a very formidable opponent and if he does face off against Culver, we will very likely revise our rating once more. (D)

  • MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • With the long-rumored but now-official entry of Treasurer Tim Cahill into the race, we’ve got a serious shot at seeing Massachusetts elect its first-ever Independent Governor. Cahill, who recently dropped his Democratic affiliation in order to challenge the unpopular incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick without the hassle of a primary, seems to have as good a shot as anyone at winning this race. Polls of the race that have just focused on a head-to-head between Patrick and Republican challengers (convenience store czar Christy Mihos, health care magnate Charlie Baker) have given narrow edges to the GOP, while three-way polls have generally shown Cahill either leading or tied with Patrick, as Cahill seems to eat up the protest votes of a lot of Democrats who’ve lost patience with Patrick. Massachusetts has a bad habit of electing moderate non-Democrats as Governor to counteract its Democratic supermajorities in the legislature, so this race is truly anybody’s ball game now. (C)

  • VA-Gov (Open): Tossup to Lean R
  • We’re a little late on this one, but we had wanted to give Creigh Deeds the benefit of the doubt. At this stage, though, it’s hard to see how Bob McDonnell doesn’t have the edge. While the race has tightened somewhat lately, Deeds has not led in a single poll since a very brief post-primary bounce back in June. In 2005, this race also tightened up very late, so we’re not ruling out a move back to Tossup status before the end. But Tim Kaine’s move began in September, and now it’s already October. Time’s running out. (D)

  • WI-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup
  • Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle’s decision to retire rather than to seek a third term may actually prove helpful to Democrats in the long run, as “incumbent fatigue” will not be an issue in retaining this office next year. Still, it’s a wide open race in the near-term, and the GOP has a pair of credible candidates in Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. Democratic Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is in the race, but she may have to campaign against popular Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett for the nomination. (J)

    SSP Changes Ratings on Eight Races

    SSP is changing its ratings on eight Senate and gubernatorial races:

    • AR-Sen: Safe D to Likely D
    • CA-Sen: Safe D to RTW
    • CO-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
    • IA-Gov: RTW to Likely D
    • MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
    • NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
    • NY-Sen-B: Safe D to RTW
    • WI-Gov: Lean D to Tossup

    We’ll be posting full write-ups for these changes soon. Our full race ratings charts: Gov | Sen.

    PA-Sen: Sestak Surges, Mixed Results Against Toomey in New Polls

    Research 2000 (8/10-12, likely voters, 5/4-6 in parens):

    Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (56)

    Joe Sestak (D): 33 (11)

    Undecided: 19 (33)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Sestak still has a lot of work ahead of him in convincing Democratic primary voters to reject an incumbent they generally like (R2K finds Specter’s approval among Dem voters to be a pretty sturdy 74-21 compared to Sestak’s 51-8), but he’s made some pretty significant progress already. (Rasmussen’s primary poll, released on Wednesday, pegged the race at an even-narrower 47-34 for Specter.)

    General election nums:

    Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (55)

    Pat Toomey (R): 40 (31)

    Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)

    Pat Toomey (R): 41 (32)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    It’s clearly getting a bit hairier for Democrats everywhere lately, but these numbers are a far cry from Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters):

    Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36

    Pat Toomey (R): 48

    Other: 4

    Joe Sestak (D): 35

    Pat Toomey (R): 43

    Other: 5

    (MoE: ±3%)

    For what it’s worth, I find the R2K numbers a bit easier to believe, but in any case, this election isn’t shaping up to be the cakewalk that it appeared to be in April. With a protracted Democratic nomination battle in place until the spring and the national environment getting sunnier for the GOP, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely D to Lean D. Pat Toomey is still a seriously flawed nominee with a lot of weaknesses to exploit, but the Democratic nominee (and the DSCC) will have to work harder than expected to keep him down.

    SSP Race Ratings Changes, 8/11/2009

    Our latest moves:

  • CT-Sen (Dodd): Lean D to Tossup
  • Chris Dodd may have received a bit of good news lately on the Countrywide mortgage fiasco (the Senate Ethics Committee cleared him of any wrongdoing and the Hartford Courant’s editorial page recently came to his defense on the matter, saying that there was no there there), but it really remains to be seen whether or not the damage done to his reputation can reverse itself. The most recent Q-Poll has ex-Rep. Rob Simmons beating Dodd by a 48-39 margin; if an incumbent under 50 is in an ugly situation, an incumbent under 40 is in seriously dangerous waters. While we’ve held out hope that Dodd can correct his course, he doesn’t seem to be doing any better than running in place. His best hope right now may be for an extremely expensive, nasty Republican primary.

    Of course, with the recent news that Dodd is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, it’s possible that he may choose to retire, in which case this race will be turned upside-down yet again. (J)

  • IL-Sen (Open): Likely D to Lean D
  • It’s difficult to imagine Barack Obama’s home state voting to put a check on the White House’s power next year, but with Rep. Mark Kirk making his candidacy official and popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan taking a pass on the race, the GOP has about as good of a shot as they’re gonna get. Yes, Kirk didn’t exactly have the smoothest launch possible, but his most recent Twitterfail isn’t the kind of stuff that will sear itself into anyone’s lasting memory besides the most diehard of newsjunkies. What he does bring to the table, though, is the resume of a battle-hardened incumbent who has performed the rare feat of surviving in a Dem-leaning district since 2000.

    The likely Democratic nominee, on the other hand, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is bringing some baggage to the table in the form of his family’s bank loans to convicted felons and his unsuccessful overhaul of the state’s college investment program — a fund that lost $85 million under Giannoulias’ watch. Giannoulias touts his ties to Barack Obama at every possible moment, but it remains to be seen whether Obama, who is notoriously squeamish when it comes to campaigning for fellow Democrats, will come to his aid anytime soon.

    Of course, the news that Roland Burris may be reconsidering his decision to retire doesn’t help things out in the least. The sheer power of Illinois’ blue slant is the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column. (J)

  • MA-Gov (Patrick): Likely D to Lean D
  • Deval Patrick’s approval ratings are bad even by the standards of most other governors in northeast and Rust Belt states. On top of that, a recent Boston Globe poll shows Patrick narrowly trailing both of his prospective Republican opponents. This poll is also likely to encourage Democrat-turned-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill to get into the race. The good news for Democrats is that Cahill seems to sop up most of the Democratic anti-Patrick protest votes that were going to the Republicans. The bad news for Patrick, in particular, though, is that there are just so many protest votes that it’s plausible Cahill could ride them to victory. It’s entirely possible that, a year from now, we could have two “Lean I” races on our board (here and in Rhode Island). (C)