Tag: Jim Tedisco

• NY-20: One day left to go in the special election. The district’s most popular politician, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is appearing in GOTV robocalls blanketing the district.

The Times-Union finds that there’s been a flood of money into the race in the last few weeks from Republican third party groups. Of the $1.1 in independent expenditures since last Tuesday, $300K were Democratic, while $800K were Republican.

Also, Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, who got kicked off the ballot last week because of a challenge to his petition signatures originated by Republicans, has endorsed Scott Murphy (seemingly more out of spite than out of agreement on the issues). His dozens of supporters may not make a big impact on the election, but it’s yet another news story that’s a black eye for Jim Tedisco.

• KY-Sen: Lt. Gov Dan Mongiardo picked up an important endorsement in the Kentucky senate primary: from his boss, Gov. Steve Beshear. (Important in the sense that it would be kind of awkward if he didn’t get that endorsment.)

• OH-Sen: Two big endorsements for SoS Jennifer Brunner in the Ohio senate primary: one from a major union, the United Food and Commercial Workers, and one from Caroline Kennedy, who hosted a NYC fundraiser for Brunner.

• AK-Sen: With the possibility of a Lisa Murkowski/Sarah Palin primary in the 2010 Alaska senate race looming, here are some numbers that might give Palin some pause. A primary against Murkowski wouldn’t be the cakewalk for Palin that some had supposed. Hayes Research didn’t test a head-to-head, but they found that Palin’s approve/disapprove (among all voters, not just GOPers) is 60/35, while Murkowski is even better at 72/21. Palin’s “very negative” is 21%, while Murkowski’s is only 7%.

• OR-05: In response to the news that two-time loser Mike Erickson is considering another race, Blue Oregon comes up with a helpful list of somewhat more credible candidates as the GOP tries to dislodge Kurt Schrader before he gets entrenched. Former and current state legislators that get a mention include former majority leader Wayne Scott, as well as Bill Kennemer, Kim Thatcher, Vicki Berger, and Vic Gilliam.

• Redistricting: Believe it or not, the state of Ohio is hosting a “redistricting competition” to see who can come up with the best map for the state. Some of the criteria they’re using to judge entrants (like “compactness”) might be anathema to hardcore partisans, but the contest could still be fun nonetheless. The sign-up form is here. (D)

• CT-Sen: Looks like Robbie Simmons is going to have some company in the GOP primary for the nod to take on Chris Dodd; state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, the former mayor of Waterbury, is expected to announce his candidacy tomorrow. (J)

Siena College (PDF) (3/25-26, likely voters, 3/9-10 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 47 (41)

Jim Tedisco (R): 43 (45)

Eric Sundwall (L): 2 (1)

(MoE: 3.2%)

If I had a Drudge siren, I’d be breaking it out right now. There’s been blogosphere whispers for the last few days of various leaked polls showing Murphy within a point or two or even up by a point, but nothing quite of this magnitude: Scott Murphy has turned a four-point deficit from two weeks ago into a four-point lead in a public poll. Before we start dancing in the end zone, though, we have to remember that this is a low-turnout special election, and whatever happens is going to be decided by GOTV and ground game. Even if we’re peaking at the right time, the key is going to be actually getting those Murphy voters to the polls.

The GOP registration edge in the district isn’t helping Tedisco much. Part of the problem is that Murphy has the support of 84% of the Democrats, while Tedisco has the support of only 64% of the Republicans. The poll also has crosstabs of the regions within the district: while Murphy is remaining steady in the region he’s from (Essex/Warren/Washington Counties), he’s gained 8% since last poll in Rensselaer/Saratoga Counties (to 43%) and 7% in the Hudson Valley (to 46%). Combined with his 58% in the north, that’s enough to put him over the top.

There’s still one wrinkle in this poll: it includes Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, who got kicked off the ballot yesterday for not having enough valid petition signatures. While I’d expect more of Sundwall’s votes to migrate to Tedisco than Murphy, some of his would-be voters may simply stay home, and at any rate, Sundwall’s share in this poll is still smaller than the Murphy/Tedisco margin.

UPDATE by James L.: A new DCCC poll has Murphy leading Tedisco by a 43-41 margin. No details are available yet on its sample size or the name of the outfit that conducted the poll.

• NY-20: Lots going on in the Empire State today, as we enter the home stretch. Perhaps most significantly, the GOP finally succeeded in getting Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall kicked off the ballot, on the grounds that he didn’t have enough valid petition signatures. Siena found Sundwall polling at only 1% (Benenson gave him 4%), but there have been multiple rumored internal polls floating around within the last few days that have it as a 1 or 2-point race, so Sundwall’s votes (which seem likelier to migrate to Jim Tedisco’s column) may make a big difference. (Siena promises a new public poll to be released tomorrow.)

Joe Biden also jumped into the special election, cutting a radio ad touting Murphy and his own sort-of-local ties (he’s a Syracuse Law alum). The NRCC is continuing to work the faux-populist angle, rolling out a new ad criticizing Murphy for being on the board of an Internet company that paid bonuses to workers while losing money. (I assume that company wasn’t receiving hundreds of billions on the government dole, though.)

• CA-10: There’s already an internal poll of the race to replace Ellen Tauscher in the East Bay suburbs, commissioned by assemblywoman Joan Buchanan. In a bit of a surprise, Buchanan leads the pack, slightly edging presumptive frontrunner state senator Mark DeSaulnier. Buchanan is at 21, DeSaulnier at 18, with two Republicans, San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former assemblyman Guy Houston, at 14 and 13. (It’s polled that way because in a California special, like in CA-32, all candidates run in a multi-party primary, and if no one breaks 50%, the top person from each primary advances to a general, which according to this poll would be Buchanan and Wilson.) Buchanan and DeSaulnier both are waiting for Tauscher’s resignation to announce; it’s not clear whether either of the GOPers will get involved.

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta looks pretty serious about taking on Carol Shea-Porter in 2010; he met a second time with the NRCC about the race. He’s still likely to face a primary battle against John Stephen, who barely lost to Jeb Bradley in the 2008 primary and seems to be planning to try again.

• OR-05: Buried deep in a CQ article about how the parties are turning more to self-funders is a delightful tidbit about Mike Erickson, last seen getting flattened by Kurt Schrader in the 2008 open seat battle. Despite his last campaign collapsing into a horror show of Cuban junkets and abortion hypocrisy, he’s “actively considering” a third try for the seat in 2010. We could only be so lucky.

• CT-05: It’s been telegraphed for a number of weeks, but today it’s official: Justin Bernier, former Rob Simmons aide and former director of Connecticut’s Office of Military Affairs, will be running against Chris Murphy in the 5th. Murphy had little trouble defeating a state senator, David Cappiello, in 2008.

• NY-20: You’ll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though – and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly “infuriated” at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won’t run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that “it was never a serious proposition” in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.

• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he’s considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he’s been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner’s apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)

• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.

• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I’m hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I’m especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district’s strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn’t get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)

Tonight is the deadline for candidates in the NY-20 special election to file their fundraising reports with the FEC for the period covering January 1st through March 11th. Now that both Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco have filed, let’s take a look at their hauls:

All numbers are in thousands, and “CoH” represents remaining cash on hand at the end of the reporting period.

Despite the assumption that Murphy would be able to use his deep pockets to build up a financial edge over Tedisco, Tedisco has dipped into his own family piggy bank in the form of a $200K loan, keeping this race at near financial parity. Of course, the money is still flowing in at a fast clip to both candidates; you can view the 48 Hour FEC notices filed by both Tedisco here and Murphy here (just look for links labeled “Form F6”) for more updates. These sums are also just a portion of the total expenditures in this race — both Dem and GOP-allied organizations are throwing down some serious scrilla here. We’ll take a closer look at these independent expenditures soon.

• NY-20: As we pass the two-week mark on the special election, Jim Tedisco has a new TV ad out that’s apparently the first salvo in his new decision to run far, far away from those mean national Republicans. Says Tedisco: “Like the president said, we’re not Republicans or Democrats, we’re Americans. And that’s the team I’m on.” So this is what we’ve come to, in just a few short years… a panicked and fearful Republican has to abandon the noble American rhetorical tradition of attack ads, and instead stoop to craven positive messaging?

• PA-Sen: Shortly after publicly spurning attempts by Democratic bigwigs to get him to party-switch, Arlen Specter sends up an interesting trial balloon: he may consider running as an independent in 2010, with the understanding that he would continue to caucus with Republicans. Since Pennsylvania has a sore loser law, he’d have to decide ahead of time to take this route rather than only after losing the GOP primary. The article gives the last word to Joe Lieberman: “I’d be delighted to have him in my caucus.”

• Maps: Pew Research Center has released a really interesting series of maps showing migration patterns between the four census regions of the country. The results shouldn’t be surprising (the most dominant pattern is northeast to south, followed by midwest to south, with the west basically holding steady), but they illustrate what we’re looking at with redistricting in 2010 (and also illustrates why we’re starting to see better results for Dems in the non-Deep parts of the South).

• Media: On a personal note for me, my daily newspaper is dead; long live my daily newspaper. This is the first day with no dead-tree edition of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer in about 150 years, but as you can see, seattlepi.com (with a dramatically reduced staff) just keeps humming right along (which doesn’t really affect me, since I was part of the problem; I only read only it online for free). Time will only tell whether this is the first bold step in reimagining the media business… or one more nail in journalism’s coffin as ‘newspapers’ keep moving toward aggregating other people’s information and not doing the actual work of reporting.

• WI-08: Republican John Gard, who lost two consecutive races to Democrat Steve Kagen, tells a local Fox affiliate that it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll run in 2010. Meanwhile, Door County Board of Supervisors member Mark Savard is in the race, and is already running radio ads. (J)

The shifty bastard finally comes clean:

It’s no longer a hypothetical question.

Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco just came out against the stimulus package passed last month by Congress after having previously saying only that he supported a package with amendments. The question has been used by his Democratic opponent, Scott Murphy, in their race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress.

“My position is: yeah, I worked as hard as I could have to get those amendments in and to get them passed. I realize now that people don’t understand that if they didn’t get passed, I would have voted no,” Tedisco said. “I’m going on the record now to say I would have voted no, because what we should have done was go back to the drawing board, get a stimulus package that truly creates jobs, invests in infrastructure and the economy.”

Shorter Tedisco: I would have voted against the actual stimulus so that I could instead vote for a non-existent stimulus. It seems that national Republicans would rather lose this seat than win with a pro-stimulus platform. Wild. I am sure Scott Murphy will eviscerate him for this nonsense.

Following up on James’s post from last night (which gets my vote for funniest diary title of the year), it looks like the NRCC is putting its foot down and not letting Jim Tedisco go rogue. Tedisco has vowed to seize control of his message and run only positive ads in the remaining three weeks… not a bad idea, considering that one of the tidbits buried in the game-changing Siena poll from yesterday was that his negative ads were killing him. The poll found that Tedisco’s ads made 12% of voters more likely to back him, while 28% were less likely.

Not so fast, says the NRCC. They’re professionals, they know exactly what works based on their previous excellent track record, and are just going to keep running negative ads on Tedisco’s behalf, regardless of his ingratitude. According to NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain:

“The NRCC has an obligation to hold Scott Murphy accountable for the past he is trying to hide as a Wall Street executive whose actions represent everything that has gone wrong with our economy. We have no plans to shirk our responsibilities.”

(Cue footage of Tedisco pounding his head on his desk.)

Also today, as part of a somewhat smarter ad campaign, the Scott Murphy campaign rolled out a new ad starring the most popular person in NY-20 according to Siena: Kirsten Gillibrand, who sports a deity-like 78% favorable rating. (The ad doesn’t seem to be YouTubed yet, but you can see it at the Murphy website in the lower right corner.)

Siena College (3-9/10, likely voters, 2/18-19 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 41 (34)

Jim Tedisco (R): 45 (46)

Eric Sundwall (L): 1 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Yesterday you may remember that the Scott Murphy camp came out with an internal poll showing a 7-point lead for Jim Tedisco, but I questioned whether the race was actually closer than that, given that the internal poll was more than two weeks old and the intervening weeks involved a lot of hammering on Tedisco for his inability to commit one way or the other to the stimulus package. I may have been on to something: Siena comes out with another poll (so finally we have some trendlines) of NY-20, and Murphy has shaved his previous 12-point deficit to 4.

As you can see from the trendlines, Tedisco is holding steady while Murphy is vacuuming up the undecideds. Tedisco also doesn’t seem to be impressing anyone new: his favorable/unfavorable is 49/30, which looks good on the surface, but two weeks ago he was at 47/20. (Murphy’s favorable/unfavorable is 40/25, up from 29/10, so his ad blitz is at least erasing his #1 problem, lack of name recognition.) The trajectory of the trendlines points to a very close race, and this being a special election, it’s likely to boil down to turnout, enthusiasm, and ground game.

This poll also breaks down the race by region within the district. Tedisco has a big edge in suburban Saratoga County, where he’s ostensibly from (he represents Schenectady in the state assembly, which is outside the district), while Murphy has a big edge in the district’s blue-collar northern counties (Murphy is from Glens Falls). The two are close in the Hudson Valley counties south of Albany, which looks to be the swing area where the real battle will be fought.

As I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere, this race is also turning into a bit of a behind-the-scenes referendum on RNC chairman Michael Steele. While I’m starting to look forward to winning this race, one unfortunate consequence of winning may be the end of the Steele chairmanship… which, at least in terms of driving the media narrative, has so far proven to be a much bigger gift to Democrats than one more seat in the House.

UPDATE: The RNC can read polls, too. They just transferred $100,000 to the New York GOP to buttress Tedisco’s campaign.