Tag: CO-04

Bennett, Petts & Normington for Betsy Markey (5/13-15, likely voters):

Betsy Markey (D): 43

Marilyn Musgrave (R-inc): 36

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The poll pegs Musgrave’s job approval rating at 40%, while 51% of voters disapprove of her performance in Congress.

It’s an internal poll, so skepticism is expected.  But the Musgrave campaign’s response caught my eye:

Musgrave supporters, however, said it’s much too early to count her out of the race. Guy Short, Musgrave’s chief of staff, said a poll done by the Musgrave camp in March showed her leading 47 percent to 42 percent.

Even if Musgrave’s internal poll is a more accurate snapshot of this race, a GOP incumbent leading an unknown Democrat by a mere 47-42 margin in an R+8.5 district is hardly a stellar performance.  I’ll take either set of numbers here.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

(H/T: ColoradoPols)

I just wanted to pass along some news I got in my email box just now. Betsy Markey has been elected ot receive the $3,000 Progressive Patriot contribution.

Dear Supporter,

Thank you!

Last week we asked for your help to win the Progressive Patriot fund web nomination.  We had an incredible response from our entire list and received enough votes to place a very close third place.   Due to the tremendous turnout for Betsy, Sen. Feingold is sending a $3,000 check today to support our campaign!

As this campaign continues to build momentum I truly appreciate that this is bigger than any one person.  Thank you again!

Betsy Markey

She’s nothing if not organized.

Eric Eidsness, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat who scored 11% of the vote on the third party line against Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2006, has dropped out of the Democratic primary:

“The hand writing is on the wall and I see it is not my time to be elected to national office to represent (Colorado’s 4th Congressional District),” Eidsness said in a prepared statement. “While my populist message appeals to a broad range of voters, particularly in the more rural areas, I do not have the support I will need here in Larimer County to win the Democratic nomination.”

Eidsness’ announcement comes hot on the heels of ’06 Democratic candidate Angie Paccione’s decision to drop out.  With Eidsness and Paccione out, the field is now clear for Betsy Markey.

Contrary to what Chris Cillizza may believe, I would not rank Colorado’s 4th in the top ten competitive House races of 2008.  Part of that may be the lack of a top tier challenger (it remains to be seen whether Markey can bring the noise, even if she has credible connections), but Musgrave’s chances are helped by her decision to tone down her obsession with socially regressive causes (publicly, at least), and the tilt-red nature of the district (Bush won it by 17 points in 2004).  That’s not to say that I don’t think this race will be competitive, or that the potential for a Markey upset isn’t there, but I feel that our clearest shot at this district passed us by last November.

(H/T: ColoradoPols)

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn’t take Nevada’s 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn’t very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn’t include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren’t that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada’s 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

  * 50.37% Heller
  * 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
  * 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
  * 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
  * 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
  * 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
  * 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
  * 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
  * 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
  * 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
  * 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
  * 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

You may remember these results from election night ’06:

4th District, Colorado

Marilyn Musgrave (R): 46%
Angie Paccione (D): 43%
Eric Eidsness (Reform): 11%

Eric Eidsness is a former Naval officer and Reagan appointee to the EPA.  His Wikipedia bio also lists his affiliation with Republicans For Kerry in 2004.  Despite competing for attention in a marquee race, Eidsness managed to pick up a bit of traction, gaining the endorsements of several local newspapers and cracking the double digits on election day.

Without wasting any time, Eidsness is back in the ring, and this time, he’s wearing Democratic stripes:

Eric Eidsness […] announced today that he’s switching his party affiliation to Democrat.

The announcement is likely a prelude to another congressional run for Eidsness, a long-time Republican who was a top Environmental Protection Agency administrator in the Reagan administration.

“I am a new Democrat who can bring business savvy and fiscal restraint to the Democratic Party’s proposals should I run for Congress in 2008 and win,” Eidsness said in a prepared statement.

I’m not sure how he’d manage in a primary field, but this an interesting development.  As far as third-party types go, it’s clear that Eidsness has a bit of game in him.  Will Colorado Democrats be comfortable–or willing–to hand the torch over to him?

(Hat-tip to Luis and Square State.)

Race Tracker: CO-04

While Bush may have come to Greeley, CO to try to save the seat of Marilyn Musgrave on Saturday, the candidates here in Colorado who can speak before a crowd without the need of a script rallied today, Sunday, in this battleground city of the 4th CD.

Senator Ken Salazar, Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter and Democratic congressional challenger Angie Paccione took the stage before about 500 enthusiatic citizens to explain why this is such an important election.  When Angie took the microphone to cheers of “Angie!  Angie!  Angie!”  She presented the simple, obvious reasons why the Democrats must take back Congress and why Musgrave must go.

More after the jump.

If you have ever seen Angie speak, you would know how she draws upon the energy of the crowd — and this crowd was electric.  Angie doesn’t need a script to explain why it is so important for the Democrats to be in the majority — to raise the minimum wage, to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, to vote to override Bush’s veto of stem-cell research, to get rid of the corrupt politicans who are doing the bidding of special interests.

But Angie was most eloquent when she reminded the audience of Eisenhower’s statement that “America is great because America is good” — telling the audience that when the Democrats return to the majority in Congress, they will “make America great again because they will make sure America is good again.”

After the event, some reporters gathered around Angie to ask her questions — about the last 2 days of campaigning and what she thought would happen.  Using the analogy from her basketball playing days, she said that the campaign was peaking at the right time as the polls showed the race now basically a toss-up.

When asked “What do you think of Bush and Cheney coming to this state to rally for the Republicans?”  Angie replied, “Well, their numbers are in the tank — and if the Republicans in this state want to attach themselves to them, then their numbers will be in the tank too.”

As she explained: “There has been a massive failure of leadership both in Congress and his Administration.  People are looking for change.  I say if you want to change the Congress, you have to change the people you send to Congress.  And that’s why I am asking voters tio send me — because I’ll be that change.”

Whatever happens on Tuesday, nobody can question that Angie is going into the election fighting for every vote.

I left Washington, DC Friday and flew to Colorado to help out on the Angie Paccione congressional campaign, arriving at campaign HQ in Fort Collins around 9PM. The staff here is psyched and energetic and the field operation has gone full throttle with several hundred volunteers this weekend knocking on doors of both Democrats and Independents making sure that they get to the polls. Just today, Saturday, about 30,000 doors were knocked on by canvassers, with many people telling us they had already voted for Angie through absentee or early voting — they have a very good early voting system in Colorado. What is great about being in the field is that you can really get a feel for the energy and momentum of a campaign — and Angie’s team has it.

Three members of Congress were here to help rev up the troops — Diana DeGette (CO), Diane Watson (CA), and Barbara Lee (CA). At the meeting point for canvassers in Longmont, Diane Watson gave a stirring talk about why this election was so critically important just before everyone went to walk their assigned precincts.

A few points I’ve learned after the jump.

— Bush came to Greeley to rally the “faithful” for Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Beauprez.  The feeling in the Paccione Campaign is that the Bush appearance will do as much to rally Dems in the district as it would GOPers.

— Greeley is a battleground for both campaigns.  Stan Matsunaka, who ran as the Dem candidate last time, lost Greeley by 10,000 votes.  We expect to lose Greeley, but if we can cut the Greeley margin significantly, Angie should be fine.

— To counter the Bush rally in Greeley, the Democrats will have a counter-rally Sunday with Senator Ken Salazar, Dem Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter, and Angie — followed by a major door-to-door canvassing event.  Ritter will win election easily, Ken Salazar is very popular, so this should be a great antidote to the Bush rally.

— Eric Eidsness, the Reform Party candidate, will have a major impact on the results.  Almost all of his votes are coming from GOPers, and we have seen polls that give him anywhere from 6% to 11%.  The more he gets, the better it is for Angie.  He is a former Republican and did a very good job in the one debate, focusing most of his criticism at Musgrave.

— The ads on TV are non-stop as most of the congressional candidates are using Denver media.  The negative ads are now focused on CO-04 as the GOP has basically pulled out of the open seat in CO-07, conceding it to Ed Perlmutter.  The DCCC now has a presence in CO-04, and is dropping six-figures in advertising money, as wel as providing field operatives.

Angie is a great candidate for anyone who has met her, and she has a nice, positive ad to end the campaign.

I will report more from CO-04 tomorrow.