Tag: CT-Sen

Check it. Quinnipiac (2/5-8, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58

Joe Lieberman (I-Inc.): 30

(MoE: ±2.5%)

No need to adjust your TV sets — these are general election numbers, not some fantasy scenario where Lieberman tries to win the Democratic primary nomination again. Indeed, he would be foolish to even try, especially if state AG Dick Blumenthal gets into the race. Here’s an eye-popping number for you: among Democrats, Blumenthal steamrolls Lieberman by a devastating 83-9 margin! Of course, Lieberman has four years to try to repair his douche-stained reputation, and who knows if Blumenthal will really pull the trigger. However, with numbers like these, Blumenthal has every reason to finally throw down; this race may be his last real opportunity to wage a Senate campaign.

Meanwhile, Connecticut’s other Senator, Chris Dodd, continues his downward spiral:

A total of 42 percent of voters say they “definitely” or “probably” will vote to reelect Sen. Dodd in 2010, while 51 percent say the “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” vote for him.

By a 54 – 24 percent margin, Connecticut voters say they are not satisfied with Sen. Dodd’s explanation of allegations that he received preferential mortgage treatment and 56 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of this controversy.

And that’s not all: Dodd’s approval has entered net negative territory for the first time in recent Quinnipiac polling history, with 48% of voters disapproving of his job performance to 41% who still give Dodd their approval.

If John Cornyn is successful in luring Rob Simmons or even a cash-flush self-funder into this race, it’ll be a significant accomplishment for the NRSC. At the very least, attacking this pressure point will force Democrats to reallocate resources to a defensive position — and who knows, maybe lightning could strike.

This would be a pretty big coup for John Cornyn:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) is contemplating a challenge to Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) in 2010, as Republicans appear to be telegraphing that they plan to target the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs chairman for defeat.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) met with Simmons to discuss a potential bid a few weeks ago while the former Congressman was in town for the Republican National Committee winter meeting, according to a knowledgeable source. Simmons, however, has not yet made any commitments to the NRSC.

“Congressman Simmons would be a very strong candidate in this race, particularly when ethics and the economy will be two of the biggest issues in 2010,” NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said. “That said, it’s our understanding that he’s still examining his options as are other potential candidates.”

Simmons, who was knocked off by Democrat Joe Courtney in an extremely close race in 2006, is already testing out some attacks against Dodd:

“I am currently looking around for opportunities to be of service,” Simmons said. “As you know, I’ve got a fairly substantial background in public service and I’m currently just looking around, if you will, exploring possibilities to see what looks good.”

Although Simmons was coy about 2010, he touted his service as an aide to former Sens. John Chafee (R-R.I.) and Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) as proof of his ability to straddle the spectrum of the Republican Party. Simmons was also fast to criticize Dodd for not foreseeing the economic crisis as chairman of the Banking panel, as well as not disclosing the details of a well-publicized deal he got on a mortgage for his home.

“Sen. Dodd has disappointed a lot of his supporters up here in Connecticut with his activities over the last several years,” Simmons said. “He left the state, moved to Iowa, to pursue what turned out to be a frivolous attempt to run for president of the United States of America.”

If Simmons goes for it, this race could conceivably get pretty interesting. The latest polling (Quinnipiac, December 2008) hasn’t exactly been kind to Dodd the Bod — his approval rating is limping along at 47-41, and his re-elects are in even worse shape: only 44% say that they’ll vote to re-elect the incumbent in 2010, while 47% say that they’ll go with someone else.

There’s no question that Simmons would have to run one hell of a race in order to win in this bright blue state, but the path for him is available if he decides to take a crack against an incumbent who voters seem to be getting at least somewhat tired of.

Well, this is surprising:

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who announced Monday he will seek a sixth term, is mulling a challenge against Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) in 2012.

Multiple Connecticut Democrats, speaking on condition of anonymity, say Blumenthal has begun informing influential members of the state’s political class that he will prepare for a run against Lieberman.

Blumenthal has been Connecticut’s AG since forever (well, 1990, to be precise), and it has long been assumed that he’s been looking for an opportunity to move on up. Still, after passing on gubernatorial campaigns time and time again, Blumenthal always struck observers as fairly risk-averse, and he has already committed himself to running for another term as AG in 2010. So it’s fairly surprising that he’s thinking of making a splash against Lieberman:

“My only focus and my sole interest right now is on the race in 2010 and seeking reelection as attorney general,” he said.

Still, serving in the Senate “would be an honor, and it’s always been a career goal,” Blumenthal added. “I’ve said that I look forward to continuing opportunities for public service in the future.”

Should Blumenthal run against Lieberman, it would set up a clash between two well-known Connecticut politicians. “He’s probably the most popular Democrat in the state,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Douglas Schwartz. […]

“I would certainly consider other opportunities that fit the skills I have, the aptitudes. The U.S. Senate would be a huge honor and a great challenge and opportunity,” Blumenthal said Monday. “We have two United States senators who are incumbents, and I would have to see what their plans are.”

If either Dodd or Lieberman retire, you can bet that Blumenthal would finally pounce. But with Blumenthal turning 66 in 2012, perhaps he sees the clock ticking on his ambition to join the Senate — if Dodd sticks around in 2010 (as most assume), a Lieberman challenge could be his last real window to try.

According to Cliff, the rumor mill has churned out none other than independent Senator Joe Lieberman as a possible Bush nominee to replace disgraced Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez.  However, if you’ve believed all the rumors, Lieberman should have been one or all of the following by now: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Ambassador to the United Nations, and George Bush’s running mate in 2004.

But for the sake of exploring every wild-eyed hypothetical, let’s assume that Lieberman answers Bush’s call and gets confirmed by the Senate as the next AG.  At present, Connecticut law states that, in the event of a Senate vacancy, the Governor gets to appoint a replacement.  If Lieberman were to leave, that would put the ball in Republican Gov. Jodi Rell’s court to name his successor.

So, whom might Rell appoint?  The Republican bench isn’t exactly burgeoning with obvious possibilities, seeing as how Rell and her Lieutenant, Michael Fedele, are the state’s only current GOP statewide office holders.  Looking to those with Congressional experience, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson is 72 years old, and appointing current Rep. Chris Shays would almost certainly cause his House seat to fall to the Democrats–an unattractive option for Rell.  If she doesn’t tap someone from the state legislature, there’s always Rob Simmons, who represented a district with a sharply Democratic PVI of D+7.6 from 2000 until his defeat last November.

Of course, Connecticut Democrats, who hold a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, could make this hypothetical moot by quickly ushering in legislation to strip the power to fill Senate vacancies from the Governor.  In such an event, Democrats are not short of potential recruits to bring a bit more sanity to Connecticut’s Senatorial delegation in a special election.  Which one would you like to see nominated?

It’s four years off in the horizon, but it’s never too early to plan ahead for open seat Senate races.  From CQ, comes word that Presidential hopeful Chris Dodd has determined that, one way or another, this will be his last term in the Senate:

Sen. Christopher Dodd, through his counsel, has sent a letter to the Federal Election Commission stating he “is no longer a candidate in the 2010 election for the United States Senate in Connecticut.”

Do you have a favorite to replace Dodd in four years?  A comebacker for Ned Lamont, perhaps?  Or maybe a promition for rising star Chris Murphy?  CT’s Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal, has long been rumored to have higher aspirations, but has been hindered by a lack of openings at the top of the ticket (and his unwillingness to challenge popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell last November).  Has his time passed, or is this just the opening that he’s been waiting for?

On the flip side, who might be the Republican standard-bearer?  Chris Shays, who could prove formidable, will be 65 in 2010.  Rob Simmons, who lost narrowly to Democrat Joe Courtney last year, will be even older (67).  I can’t seem to find Blumenthal’s date of birth on the ‘net.

Update: Looks like we might be jumping the gun here, according to Hotline On Call:

Well, while legally true, CT Dems shouldn’t start licking their chops about the supposed “open seat” in three years. In order to transfer all of his money he raised for his 2010 re-election to his WH campaign account without penalty, he had to file a statement with the FEC saying he wouldn’t run. It’s simply an accounting thing, nothing more. In fact, should Dodd not be elected POTUS in ’08, he, indeed can legally open a new Senate 2010 account. He did this so that he could raise maximum amounts from donors who gave to that 2010 campaign account.

An inquiry to Dodd’s campaign about the above mentioned story prompted the following response from spokesperson Beneva Schulte: “It’s a legality that isn’t an indication of future plans.”

Dodd will be 64 in 2008.  Presumably, he should have enough gas in the tank for another term or two.  Or he could pull a Bob Graham.  We’ll see.

I just got word from the Lamont campaign that they are in need of help tomorrow in the 4th CD. That’s the part of Connecticut that’s closest to NYC and its suburbs – in fact, much of the district really is a suburb of New York itself. It’s very easy to reach by MetroNorth. So if you don’t already have election day plans – or you had a moment of inspiration and decided you’re gonna call in sick tomorrow – get in touch with the Lamont campaign here:

gmunger@gmail.com

-or-

(203) 854-5219

They’ll be answering the phones/checking e-mail all night.

Do you know anyone in Connecticut?  Anyone at all?  If you do, please consider taking part in Ned’s Family, Friends & Neighbors program.  It’s an incredibly easy and incredibly effective voter contact tool, because its power rests in the strength of your personal connections and your own ability to persuade your friends.  Tonight at 11:00 pm EDT is your last chance to send a postcard to someone you know in Connecticut to encourage them to vote for Ned Lamont using this tool.  Remember: in 1988, Lowell Weicker was still ahead by 6 points around this time.  You never know what could happen.  Please urge everyone you know in Connecticut to head out to the polls and support Ned Lamont on Tuesday.