Tag: CT-Sen

• NC-Sen: If Richard Burr wants to be re-elected, there’s one big problem he’s going to have to overcome: his constituents don’t seem to have any idea who he is. PPP finds that his approval ratings are only 35%. That sounds dire, but he’s actually on the plus-side of the ledger, with 32% disapproval. That leaves 33% who don’t know, which is huge considering that he’s been in office for more than four years now. They also run a head-to-head for Burr against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who seems to have no intention to run); Burr wins 43-35.

• CA-10: The field in California’s 10th district to replace Ellen Tauscher in a special election seems to be taking shape. As expected, the district’s two heavyweights, state senator Mark DeSaulnier and assemblyman Tom Torlakson (who recently swapped seats because of term limits), are jockeying for position. (Politico suggests several other possible Dems include assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, and Santa Monica city councilor and Kennedy clan member Bobby Shriver, who’s interested despite currently being about 400 miles outside the district.) While Obama won the district 65-33, the GOP isn’t going down without a fight; their possible candidates include San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former 49er Bret Jones.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd, who already has enough egg on his face to make a big omelette, got even messier with his admission that he inserted the language that allowed payment of the AIG bonuses. Nevertheless, he told the Hartford Courant today that he’s not retiring and is still in the race for 2010.

• OK-05: Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, a potential contender for the open seat being vacated by gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin, was making the rounds on Capitol Hill today. Cornett, who lost in the primary to Fallin in 2006, is still officially undecided on the race. The Club for Growth has already endorsed former state rep. Kevin Calvey. Other possible GOPers in the race include Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee, and state rep. Mike Thompson.

• LA-02: The NRCC isn’t letting go of this one without at least some token efforts; NRCC leaders Pete Sessions and Mike Rogers, along with Charles Boustany, are hosting a lunchtime fundraiser for Joe Cao today.

• NRSC/NRCC: The NRSC and NRCC announced yesterday that Alaska governor Sarah Palin would headline their fundraising dinner in June, which is a big ‘get’ since she couldn’t be bothered to come out all the way to DC for CPAC. The Anchorage Daily News then reported that Palin wouldn’t be attending after all. Turns out that one hand of PalinCo doesn’t know what the other is doing… the appearance was arranged through SarahPAC, while the actual governor’s office had no idea this was happening. The NRCC and NRSC still say “that to their knowledge” she’s still coming.

• SC-01, SC-02: Linda Ketner is sounding a little iffy about a rematch against Henry Brown, worried about diminished African-American turnout in an off-year election (and also the costs; even wealthy philanthropists get hit by the recession). Former state rep. Mike Barber and state rep. Leon Stavrinakis are possibilities if she demurs. Next door, though, Iraq vet Rob Miller has begun fundraising for a rematch against Joe Wilson.

• OR-04: Peter DeFazio may get his first substantive challenger in ages; the GOP is recruiting Springfield (the district’s 2nd largest city) mayor Joe Quimby Sid Leiken to run. While DeFazio would still be a heavy favorite in such a race, he’s been mentioned frequently as a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and in this D+0 district the GOP could be competitive with an open seat.

• VA-02, VA-05, VA-11: Southern Political Report takes a look at potential challengers to the three new Virginia freshmen. In VA-02, the only Republican in the race so far is Chuck Smith, an African-American, former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, and an ex-Navy JAG, although moderate state senator Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms are eyeing the race. In VA-11, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian is interested in a rematch, but so is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, who recently narrowly lost the special election to replace Gerry Connolly as chairman of the Fairfax County Board.

• CT-Sen: Robbie Simmons may not have the GOP field to himself in his bid to unseat Chris Dodd: CT GOP Chairman Chris Healy tells The Hill that former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri will also run in the Republican primary. (J)

• AL-02: Add another name to the retread watch — state Rep. Jay Love says he’s considering challenging frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright in a rematch next year. Another name tossed around as a potential candidate for the GOP is none other than George Wallace, Jr., who lost an open seat race in this very same district as a Democrat in 1992 to Terry Everett. (J)

It’s on:

Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons said Sunday that he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd.

Simmons said he made the decision to join the race after talking with relatives.

“The family had a long meeting today and was unanimous that I run,” he said in an e-mail message to The Associated Press. “So I am running.”

This is a pretty huge score for John Cornyn and the NRSC. While Simmons did get washed out (barely) in the 2006 Democratic landslide, he held onto a D+7.6 district for three terms after beating a complacent incumbent, Sam Gejdenson, in 2000. Simmons will bring some serious chops to the table in a state that hasn’t seen the GOP field a viable Senate candidate in, well, decades. A recent Q-poll even showed Simmons edging Dodd by a 43-42 margin.

While Dodd will still be considered the early favorite in this deep blue state, this is shaping up to be the most challenging campaign since he began his Senate career. How aggressively Dodd moves to rehabilitate his image and deflect Simmons’ scrappy attacks will be of particular interest in the coming weeks — and months.

(Hat-tip: trowaman)

http://www.courant.com/news/po…

Titles says it all really. SImmons is officially in. If I was Sen. Dodd, I would consider retirement and let A.G. Richard Blumenthal or Rep. Chris Murphy have a crack at it.

Tough break for team blue. Still, if defense is only Connecticut and Deleware if Castle enters (Nevada GOP has no bench and the best of the Colorado GOP has passed) this still looks like a decent cycle for us. Dem +3 would be enough to let us run roughshod with our agenda for two years.

• CT-Sen: The new lovefest between Joe Lieberman and the Democratic Party seems to be reaching the point where they need to get a room. In the wake of yesterday’s endorsement of Chris Dodd, Lieberman is today floating the idea of running in 2012 in the Democratic primary, instead of just as an independent. (Of course, unless Connecticut passes a sore loser law in the next few years, what’s the downside? If he loses the Dem primary again, he can just switch back to CfL one more time.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The GOP is running out of options for a good challenger to Harry Reid. Former state senator Joe Heck (who lost his Las Vegas-area seat last year) has decided to run in the GOP primary against chronically embattled governor Jim Gibbons instead. (Although if Heck is going against Gibbons, what is Rep. Dean Heller planning to do then?) With ex-Rep. Jon Porter taking the K Street route and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki under indictment, the GOP’s Nevada bench is nearly empty.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella won’t have the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania senate race to himself. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year-old reform-minded legislator from the Philadelphia suburbs, is now exploring the race. This may be a tea leaf that Rep. Allyson Schwartz isn’t getting in the primary, as Shapiro (who’s in PA-13) would likely run for Schwartz’s seat instead if it were going to be open.

• CA-32: EMILY’s List has weighed in in the CA-32 primary, and they’re endorsing… believe it or not… the woman in the race: Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu. Chu’s main competition is state senator Gil Cedillo, who comes in with the endorsement of nearby House members like Xavier Becerra, Linda Sanchez, and Grace Napolitano (Hilda Solis, who used to occupy CA-32, hasn’t endorsed). The district is about 65% Hispanic and 20% Asian.

• NH-01, NH-02: We’re looking at a crowded field for Republican opponents to Carol Shea-Porter: John Stephen, who barely lost the primary last time to ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, is eyeing the race, as is Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Businessman Jim Wieczorek also plans to run. Meanwhile, next door in the open NH-02, radio host Jennifer Horn says there’s a good chance she’ll run again in 2010.  

• FL-22: State house majority leader Adam Hasner has been launching a series of attacks on Rep. Ron Klein over EFCA… is this a preview of the 2010 race? (It’s a Dem-leaning district, but Klein’s 2008 victory margin wasn’t impressive.)

• Votes: Also on the EFCA front, Campaign Diaries has an impressively thorough chart head-counting the positions staked out by all the Democratic senators (and potential GOP votes).

• Blue Dogs: After lifting their self-imposed 20%-of-the-Dem-caucus cap to expand to 51 members, the Blue Dogs are talking about growing again, to 56 members. No word on who that might be (although the door’s apparently open to Scott Murphy if he wins).

• NRSC: Roll Call is running a story today with the banner headline “McConnell Criticizes GOP for Lack of Diversity.” What’s next? “Sanders Criticizes KFC for Serving Chicken?”

• NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

• KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

• CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

• CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

• KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

• Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

• MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

• CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even “Generic R” holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to “Likely Democrat.” (D)

• CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)

• SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry “Smoky” Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday’s news that Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)

• PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter’s base, and location of most of the state’s moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It’s not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)

• CT-05: Connecticut’s executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he’s doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).

• Census: There wasn’t much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.

Quinnipiac (3/3-3/8, registered voters, no trendlines):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42

Rob Simmons (R): 43

Undecided: 12

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 47

Sam Caligiuri (R): 34

Undecided: 16

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 46

Larry Kudlow (R): 34

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±2.8%)

I can’t say I’m surprised to see numbers like this. Over the last few years, Dodd has racked up a number of negatives: moving his family to Iowa only to garner 0% in the caucuses, for a presidential run he never adequately “explained” to his constituents; his iconoclastic stand against FISA which endeared him to liberal activists (myself included) but probably didn’t help him at home; and his seemingly preferential loan treatment from Countrywide which has earned him a lot of bad press.

On top of that, there seems to be a growing “throw the bums out mentality” in the face of the recession. It seems to mostly be afflicting governors for now, but the key thing is that it’s nailing both parties – look at approval ratings for Paterson and Schwarzenegger. Dodd’s vulnerability may well be increased just because he’s getting swept up in that wake.

On the plus-side, Dodd is a prodigious fundraiser with powerful friends in the financial services world who won’t want to see him toppled now that Dems control such a wide majority. (Though I wonder if Simmons will be able to use Dodd’s ties against him in the parts of CT which are anti-bailout.) Also, Simmons hasn’t yet decided to run, and I wonder how much money Big John Cornyn will be able to float him.

The bottom line, though, is that Dodd is at risk and will probably cost us a great deal even if Simmons loses. He needs to get out there early to start re-defining himself – and nuking his opponent if need be.

This strikes me as hilarious:

Here at CPAC a well placed source with knowledge of the Republican Senate Committee plans tells me that Larry Kudlow is “considering” a Senate run against embattled Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd.

Larry Kudlow has a long track record of being wrong about just about everything. Just last week, for instance, he was addled enough to say of Obama’s mortage plan that “the people who win here are Fannie and Freddie. The Americans who paid their taxes on time and their mortgages on time get hurt” – even though Fannie and Freddie are, of course, now owned by the US government. And that’s just one example among many, many more – check out Atrios’s archives for all kinds of gems.

I’m sure John Cornyn strongly prefers former Congressmam Rob Simmons for this race, and I tend to think this Kudlow rumor won’t go anywhere. If nothing else, the guy has a pretty cush life and a… complicated past. But I’d love to see Kudlow make a fool of himself on the campaign trail.

Sounds like Robbie Simmons is full of piss and vinegar:

“My consideration of running against Sen. Dodd is not poll-driven,” said Simmons, who criticized Dodd for losing touch with his constituents. “When I first ran for Congress in 1999, the Republican brand was way down in the toilet, and people said I was crazy to run when the GOP was out of favor – and I was able to beat a 20-year incumbent.”

Simmons said that, if he runs, he would face a significant fundraising disadvantage against Dodd. Still, he believes he would be financially competitive enough to run a formidable statewide campaign.

“He’ll go to his pals in the banking industry and get lots of money – and I won’t have that opportunity. But I don’t believe that Senate offices are meant to be bought and sold,” Simmons said.

Even more spunk:

“I’m definitely interested,” Simmons told Capitol Watch. “I’m angry about what’s going on in Washington, D.C. … I’ve worked all my life, and I’ve watched my IRA go down 50 percent, and I’m luckier than most.”

If I were to guess, I’d say that Simmons will go for it. And why not? He certainly has nothing to lose, and a scrappy campaign against a stodgy, troubled incumbent could be pretty fun.

(H/T: Genghis Conn)

PS: In case you’re wondering, yes, Simmons is still an asshole:

“Good for him to stand up for his beliefs,” Simmons said of Gregg. “It’s ironic that the Democratic choices don’t get approved because they don’t pay their taxes, and the Republicans don’t get approved because they won’t sell out their principles.”