Tag: Evan Bayh

Via Taegan Goddard comes some amazing, out-of-nowhere news:

Informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats will announce Wednesday he will challenge U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh.

The source, former aide Curt Smith of the Indiana Family Institute, said that Coats knows he has about two weeks to gather the 4,500 signatures – 500 per Congressional district – in two weeks.

Coats was up for re-election in 1998 when he decided to retire, citing the pressures of constant fundraising. Bayh went on that year to defeat former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke to reclaim his father’s Senate seat.

Coats was originally appointed to this seat when Dan Quayle was elected Vice President in 1988. (Coats was representing IN-04 at the time – Quayle’s old district.) He subsequently won a special election in 1990 for the final two years of Quayle’s term (beating Baron Hill, 54-46), and then won a full term in 1992 (defeating Joseph Hogsett by a much bigger 57-41 margin).

Coats is 66, but that’s not much older than the Senate median of 63. If this report is accurate and Coats does indeed jump in, this would count as a major get for Indiana Republicans.

Another bullet dodged for Evan Bayh:

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita (R) will run to succeed retiring Rep. Steve Buyer (R) in the state’s 4th district.

“He is grateful for the strong encouragement from Hoosiers throughout the 4th CD, and has decided to campaign for the opportunity to serve in Congress on their behalf,” Kevin Kellems, a strategist for Rokita’s campaign, said in a statement Monday.

“Todd will post a statement today to his Facebook page,” Kellems said. “He wants to work at the federal level on the economic and security issues that directly affect the workers, families and small businesses of the 4th District.”

After Mike Pence decided not to challenge Bayh, Rokita was seen as the GOP’s next best option for the race. The GOP seems to realize, belatedly, that they should put up a stronger-than-usual challenger to Bayh (I don’t think that ex-Rep. John Hostettler qualifies as particularly “strong”, although he’s better than nothing), in case the environment is so favorable to them that they have a shot at knocking off the entrenched Democratic incumbent. But time is running out — the state’s filing deadline passes on February 16th.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-04

Republicans didn’t seem to realize that Evan Bayh presented an attractive target until they pulled off their recent upset win in Massachusetts, but time is running out if they hope to find a more compelling name on the ballot than nutty ex-Rep. John Hostettler. With Mike Pence out of contention (and the rest of the state’s GOP House delegation being either deadwood or fuggin’ goofballs), it looks like Secretary of State Todd Rokita is next in the pecking order. And he’s considering it:

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita (R) said Wednesday he is weighing a challenge to Sen. Evan Bayh (D).

“I continue to receive a lot of encouraging phone calls and emails from a diverse group of people,” Rokita said in a statement. “I certainly share Hoosiers’ concerns that we need real leadership in Washington – leadership that we simply aren’t getting today.”

Rokita’s statement also said he and his wife are preparing for the birth of their second son and that “we still think and pray about how we can best serve Indiana in the future – this great state that we love.”

He will have to make a decision quickly. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 19, and Rokita would have to file a nomination petition signed by 4,500 registered voters, with at least 500 registered voters in each of the state’s nine Congressional districts.

The petitions are nothing — any halfway competent local organization could muster up 500 sigs per CD at the snap of its fingers, and I’m sure a statewide pol like Rokita could call in the chits needed to make it happen with ease. But Rokita will need to make up his mind quickly, lest the GOP be scrambling at the 11th hour to settle on a Plan C. (And you can bet that Hostettler has gotta be Plan Z.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

A bullet dodged for Evan Bayh:

As many of you are aware, I have been approached about running for the United States Senate in 2010. Karen and I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement which we received from across Indiana, especially since there are several capable and qualified candidates already seeking the Republican nomination.

After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010.

I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.

As it stands now, Bayh’s highest-profile Republican opponent is ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is not known as the strongest of campaigners. Still, if Dan Quayle could beat an longtime, respected incumbent…

Rasmussen (1/21 & 24, likely voters):

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 44

Mike Pence (R): 47

Other: 3

Not sure: 7

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 44

John Hostettler (R): 41

Other: 3

Not sure: 12

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 45

Marlin Stutzman (R): 33

Other: 5

Not sure: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Is there a Republican candidate out there sitting on a fence who needs some convincing to enter a race? Count on Rasmussen to ride to the rescue! With the news that Republican Rep. Mike Pence was thinking about a run against entrenched, moneybags Evan Bayh in the Indiana Senate race, Rasmussen did a quick poll finding that Pence is right in the thick of things, leading Bayh by 3. (They also find ex-Rep. John Hostettler, a much flakier and less disciplined presence than Pence, within striking distance of Bayh.) Pence, for what it’s worth, said he’d make a decision over the weekend, but no response yet as of this morning.

Given the downturn in Democrats’ fortunes lately, especially in the red states, it’s not a surprise to see a Republican competitive here. Still, something’s a little weird here: Bayh is well up in the safety zone, with an approval of 58% (and 38% disapprove, with a shockingly low 4% not sure). Is this a Dorgan-style result where his popularity is trumped by the state’s lean? No, because there’s no Hoeven-style figure looming with even greater popularity. Still, the Republicans also seem to have strangely high approvals, despite, one would assume, being little-known outside their own districts: Pence is at 54/25, and Hostettler (out of the picture since 2006) is at 44/27.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

Something to keep an eye on over the next few days:

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) says he and his wife will “take the weekend” to decide whether to run for the Senate this year.

Pence said Friday on WIBC radio host Greg Garrison’s program that he’s been “flattered” and “humbled” by calls for him to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D). […]

Though Pence hasn’t come to a decision, he seemed to lay out a stronger case for continuing to serve in the House, where he has a safe seat. Pence noted that he holds a leadership position and thinks Republicans can win a majority in the House this year. The path to a Republican majority in the Senate, however, is even more difficult.

“Whether it be fiscal responsibility or traditional moral values or a strong defense, the fact that conservatives could get control of one chamber of the Congress in 2010 and begin to restore those principles to government is a very significant opportunity and a serious opportunity,” Pence said. “So we’re weighing those things. … Karen and I are going to take the weekend, take a hard look at it, commit the matter to prayer and try and make a decision in the near future.”

Pence, the number three Republican in the House, also confirmed that he recently met with NRSC Chair John Cornyn and his staff. He’d have a lot to lose by giving up his comfy perch in the House, especially since, as he correctly notes, the GOP has a real shot at retaking that chamber this year. However, I don’t think that Evan Bayh is an unbeatable incumbent in a year like this, and the platform of a Senate seat has to be tempting for a guy who may be angling for Presidential contender status soon.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-06

• AR-Sen: Talk Business Net has occasionally polled Arkansas for approvals of its local political figures, and they see Blanche Lincoln sinking further into oblivion: she’s currently at a 38/56 approval, down from 42/46 in October. One Arkansas Dem who isn’t suffering is Governor Mike Beebe, who’s at an inhuman 82/9. Beebe obviously plans for re-election and isn’t in a position to relieve us of Lincoln in a primary, but Accountability Now is looking a little further down the totem pole and launching drafthalter.com to try and get Lt. Gov. Bill Halter into the race (although he’s been sounding more interested in the open seat in AR-02).

• AZ-Sen: This is good news! For John McCain! However, it has to be bad news for the hordes of teabaggers who had about one day of thinking they’d elected one of their own to the Senate before finding out they’d gotten just got another New England RINO. Newly-elected Scott Brown’s first act was to record a robocall in favor of the insufficiently zealous McCain, who may or may not field a challenge from the raving right from J.D. Hayworth. Believe it or not, this wasn’t even Brown’s first endorsement (the guy’s doling out the political capital without having even been sworn in yet). The Hill had a piece this morning titled “Brown’s First Endorsement May Backfire,” which I assumed was about McCain – but it turns out his first endorsement was of William Hudak, a nobody running in MA-06 against John Tierney. Hudak is a loud-and-proud birther, and now Brown’s camp is already trying to figure out how to walk that one back (and getting blasted by Hudak for doing so).

• IN-Sen: With rumors flying about Rep. Mike Pence checking out a possible Senate race against Evan Bayh, key Pence ally Tony Perkins (head of the Family Research Council) said that he doubts there’ll be a Pence run for the Senate, and he alluded vaguely to the “possibility” of a 2012 presidential run instead. The Club for Growth, seeing a kindred spirit in Pence, though, has been joining in the chorus pushing him to run.

• NC-Sen (pdf): Not much change in the North Carolina Senate race since PPP’s last visit, although there’s some fluctuation upward in Richard Burr’s head-to-head numbers. The faceless Burr’s approvals are still very ho-hum, at 36-33 (with 31 still not sure), but he’s still holding his own against Generic D (45-36, up quite a bit from a one-digit gap last month, which was probably too optimistic). Encouragingly, though, SoS Elaine Marshall is starting to overperform Generic D; she trails 44-37. Ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham trails 45-36, and attorney Kenneth Lewis (who was recently endorsed by Rep. G.K. Butterfield) trails 46-34.

• NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr.’s Senate campaign-type-thing seems ill-timed to coincide with the Democrats’ belated and tentative moves to try and tap into anti-bankster anger. Sensing some trouble on that front, he’s been refusing to say exactly what kind of work he’s been doing for Merrill Lynch. Politico previously described his role (“senior policy adviser”) as sort of a nothing-and-everything job: “rainmaker and image buffer, there to impress clients, make connections and put a politic foot forward in public settings.”

• AL-Gov: More general douchery from Rep. Artur Davis as he tries to run to the right of Ag Comm. Ron Sparks in the Democratic primary, saying of health care reformer supporter Sparks: “Ron Sparks, who supports the flawed health care legislation in Washington, should realize that he is not only out of touch with the state he wants to lead, Ron Sparks would even be out of touch in Massachusetts.”

• CO-Gov: Here’s one sign that the John Hickenlooper camp was caught flat-footed by Gov. Bill Ritter’s retirement announcement: they don’t own johnhickenlooper.com. Wanna buy it? It’ll only cost you $995, and the Hickenlooper camp doesn’t seem to have plans to try to buy it.

• IL-Gov: Dan Hynes, who’s been running some hard-hitting (some might say “Willie Horton-esque”) ads against incumbent Pat Quinn in the Democratic primary, is now touting an internal poll that has him quickly closing the gap to within 7, down 44-37. (Quinn is also getting hit from the right by anti-tax ads from GOPer Andy McKenna.) Hynes’s poll also claims that Quinn’s approval is down to 36/60 among primary voters – if that doesn’t turn around for Quinn after the primary once he isn’t getting squeezed from both sides (if he even survives, as his trendline is pointing down), that would certainly bode ill for the general. One other plus for Hynes: he has a cash advantage of more than $1 million against the incumbent.

• NY-Gov: The NYT reports on mounting impatience among New York Democratic leaders for AG Andrew Cuomo to get over it and declare his gubernatorial bid already. Insiders say he’s already made up his mind to run and is waiting possibly as late as April to announce, though – and already holding a $16 million to $3 million funds edge over David Paterson, he doesn’t have to hustle. Still, Stuart Applebaum, president of the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union, is publicly endorsing Cuomo today, as a subtle nudge to get him off his butt.

• PA-Gov: Businessman Tom Knox got a lot of early attention in the Democratic governor’s primary, but hasn’t made much an impression in the polls since then. Rumors have been abounding that Knox was about to drop out of the race and endorse rival Dan Onorato instead, after meeting with Onorato this week. Knox’s campaign manager has been tamping those rumors down, today, though.

• TX-Gov: With Dick Cheney already offering his endorsement (of questionable value), another Bush administration veteran is about to endorse Kay Bailey Hutchison too in the Texas gubernatorial primary: George Bush himself. Now before you start sputtering, that’s Bush the Elder (aka 41, aka Poppy, aka H.W.).

• AR-01: In a piece on Rep. Marion Berry sounding pessimistic about passing health care reform, there’s also an even more unsettling tidbit buried, saying Berry sounds “a little unsure” about whether he’ll even bother running for re-election this year, even though he’s not facing much in the way of a GOP challenge (yet). The quickly reddening 1st is not somewhere we want to be defending another open seat.

• NY-19: Conservative Republicans who’ve been looking for an alternative to the country-clubbish Nan Hayworth as a challenger to Democratic Rep. John Hall may have found someone to fit that bill. Thomas DeChiaro, owner of a local winery, says he’ll run. As an indication of where he’s coming from, he said he’s already met with Conservative Party leader Michael Long and “plans to” meet with Republican party leaders soon.

• PA-06: It’s official: Steven Welch is staying in the GOP primary in the 6th, despite Rep. Jim Gerlach pulling his gubernatorial ripcord and plummeting back into his old seat. Welch may be motivated by nothing more than sunk costs at this point, but he claims he’s bolstered by a decent 40% showing at a recent insider straw poll. Looking for an angle in a moderate-vs.-moderate duel, he’s also been reaching out to the local teabaggers, but they may be very suspicious of his past support of Democrats.

• PA-08: Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick had sounded kind of coy about a rematch with 2006 victor Rep. Pat Murphy, but all signs are now pointing toward a 2010 run. He’s scheduled a Saturday press conference in the district to talk about his plans.

• MA-AG: Martha Coakley, now that she has some time on her hands, is planning to run for re-election as Massachusetts Attorney General. It remains to be seen whether she’ll draw any primary challengers, now that it’s been exposed that she has a glass jaw and turned off a lot of former supporters; some of the county DAs who’d been planning to run to succeed her may be interested in forging ahead anyway.

• Governors: Josh Goodman looks at the link between what happened in gubernatorial races in midterm elections where there was a wave at the congressional level. As you’d expect, the party gaining in Congress gains state houses too, although seemingly mostly through open seats.

• Filing deadlines: Don’t forget to check out our handy SSP calendar, which covers filing deadlines and primary election dates. Kentucky and West Virginia have filing deadlines next week – and then Illinois has its freakishly-early primary in just two more weeks.

Looks like one big shoe is already dropping in the wake of the Massachusetts special election — one more big-name Republican is weighing a Senate bid, against a Democrat previously thought to be unassailable: Evan Bayh.

In the wake of winning MA, GOPers are looking to put 1 more state in play if they can convince House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence to run against Sen. Evan Bayh (R-IN).

Pence and his aides will meet with top staffers at the NRSC tomorrow, several sources tell Hotline OnCall, where they will discuss a possible bid. The NRSC has polled IN, and their survey shows Pence in a competitive position, though he trails Bayh in initial matchups.

My first response, when this was bubbling up as a rumor, was puzzlement, as Mike Pence would be giving up a coveted #3 slot on the GOP leadership ladder for an uphill run against a man with huge name rec and an eight-digit war chest. Pence seems better-known among national-level news junkies than he probably is in, say, Gary or Evansville or anywhere else outside his district — and he starts way behind the 8-ball on fundraising, with only $462K banked (thanks to not having to run competitive races in his red district). Also, rumors have previously had Pence, if looking for any promotion, to be considering the Presidential race in 2012 instead (although he’d have a number of movement conservative activists in his corner, he’d still be an extreme dark horse there, though).

Still, with his House leadeship position, he should be able to start filling his coffers quickly if he did jump into the Senate race. And as for the national ambitions, the NRSC has apparently has though that through, too: “Senate strategists plan to point out those ambitions are difficult to achieve without a Senate seat.”

One other point: ex-Rep. John Hostettler is already in the race for the GOP, along with a few other odds and ends (maybe most notably state Sen. Marlin Stutzman). I’m sure, though, the NRSC would like an upgrade from the often-embarrassing Hostettler, but given Hostettler’s previous track record of uncooperativeness with the national party, he seems unlikely to step aside in a primary. Pence could find himself stepping into an unenviable situation that replicates a lot of other Republican Senate primaries: he’d be running as the “establishment” candidate against a movement conservative outsider even further to his right.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

Here’s a strange blast from the not-too-distant past:

Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) announced Thursday that he will challenge Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in 2010.

In a YouTube video, Hostettler repeatedly ties Bayh to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, blaming the pair for what he calls a failed economic stimulus package.

Hostettler served in the House from 1994 to 2006, when he was the victim of the biggest defeat of any incumbent in that wave year, losing 61-39 to then-Vanderburgh Co. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. This came after the NRCC had to give up on supporting him, concluding that he “wasn’t listening” to them, which may be code for “wasn’t taking PAC contributions,” something he’d always refused to do.

Given Hostettler’s frequent bucking of House leadership (he was one of only six Republicans to vote against authorizing the Iraq War) and his antipathy to fundraising, I can’t see the NRSC taking much interest here — leaving him with only grass roots support to go up against Evan Bayh and his $13 million. However, given Hostettler’s extreme conservatism and his love of guns (as seen in his having to plead guilty after taking a gun through airport security in 2004), he could certainly arouse the sympathies of the teabagger movement. (Of course, he’ll still need to get past state Sen. Marlin Stutzman in the primary — no guarantee, despite his superior name rec, if the establishment tries to box him out.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

• CO-Sen: Former state Sen. Tom Wiens made it official; he’s entering the Republican field in the Senate race. With former Lt. Governor Jane Norton wearing the mantle of establishment anointment in this race, Wien’s entry may actually help Norton, by taking non-Norton votes away from conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck. Wiens is a wealthy rancher prepared to put up to half a million of his own dollars into the race.

• FL-Sen: If anyone has to sweating the movement conservatives’ takedown of the pre-selected moderate establishment candidate in NY-23, it’s gotta be Charlie Crist. Here’s one more thing for him to worry about: his job approval according to a new St. Petersburg Times poll is only 42/55. They don’t have him in as dire straits against Marco Rubio in the GOP primary as a number of other pollsters, though — Crist leads Rubio 50-28 — but the ultimate indignity is on the question of whether respondents would choose Crist or Jeb Bush to lead Florida right now, 47% opt for Bush (with 41 for Crist). On the Dem side, Rep. Kendrick Meek leads newly-announced former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre 26-6.

• IL-Sen, IL-07: There a lots of interesting plot lines forming as today is the filing deadline in Illinois. But the big one is: what the hell is up with Patrick Hughes? The real estate developer was considered to be the right-wingers’ go-to guy to against alleged moderate Rep. Mark Kirk in the GOP primary, but now rumors are swirling that he doesn’t have the signatures to qualify. There also seem to be some major ball-droppings for progressives: there’s nobody challenging Rep. Dan Lipinski in the primary in IL-03, and there’s nobody, period, to go up against GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in the R+0 IL-06. In the 7th, where it’s unclear whether Rep. Danny Davis will be coming back or not (he’s filed for his seat, but also for Cook County Board President), he’s facing primary competition from only one elected official: state Sen. Rickey Hendon (Cook Co. Deputy Recorder of Deeds Darlena Williams-Burnett is also a big name, but I don’t think deputy recorder is an elected position). Hendon says he’ll bail out and run for Lt. Governor if Davis sticks around.

Meanwhile, on the Senate front, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is touting his own internal poll from GQR giving him a 3-point edge on Rep. Mark Kirk in a general election, 46-43. The same poll finds less-known Democrat former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman trailing Kirk 48-39.

• IN-Sen: Research 2000 (on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, rather than Kos) found last week that Blanche Lincoln was in serious trouble electorally and that her troubles would mount if she opposed health care reform. They also looked at Evan Bayh, and they found that, a) he’s not in trouble (62/30 approvals, although no head-to-head test against his erstwhile opponent, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman), and b) a majority wouldn’t be moved one way or the other by his health care actions.

• MA-Sen: The start of debates haven’t done much to reshape things in the Democratic primary in the special election in the Bay State. AG Martha Coakley holds a 25-point lead over Rep. Michael Capuano, according to an R2K poll commissioned by local blog Blue Mass Group. Coakley is at 42 and Capuano at 16, with Stephen Pagliuca at 15 and Alan Khazei at 5. Only 52% of Coakley’s voters are firm about it, though, but that’s not much different from any of the other candidates.

• FL-Gov: That aforementioned St. Petersburg Times poll also looked at the governor’s race, and they gave Democratic CFO Alex Sink her first lead in a while; she’s up a single point on GOP AG Bill McCollum, 38-37. More trouble for McCollum: state Senator Paula Dockery, as threatened, now appears to be jumping into the Republican primary, which had been painstakingly cleared for him.

• MN-Gov: If a candidate falls in the Minnesota gubernatorial Republican field, does it make a sound? State Rep. Paul Kohls dropped out, having not gotten much traction according to recent straw polls. That leaves approximately eleventy-seven zillion Republicans left in the hunt.

• VA-Gov: He’s dead, Jim. Four more polls on VA-Gov are out:

YouGov (pdf): McDonnell 53, Deeds 40

Mason-Dixon: McDonnell 53, Deeds 41

PPP (pdf): McDonnell 56, Deeds 42

SurveyUSA: McDonnell 58, Deeds 40

• MI-07: Unseated wingnut Tim Walberg — who’d like to get his job back from freshman Dem Mark Schauer — has some company in the GOP primary next year: attorney and Iraq vet Brian Rooney (the brother of Florida Rep. Tom Rooney) is getting in the race. It’s not clear whether Rooney is any more moderate than Walberg, though; he’s an attorney for the right-wing Thomas More Law Center, the theocons’ answer to the ACLU.

• NY-23: A few more odds and ends in the 23rd. One more key Republican endorser working for Doug Hoffman now is Rudy Giuliani (like George Pataki, not the likeliest fellow you’d expect to see make common cause with the Conservative Party — with neither of them having ruled out 2010 runs, they seem to want to be in good graces with the national GOP, who are all-in for Hoffman now). Rudy’s crack team of robots is making calls on his behalf. Another possible useful endorsement: Watertown’s mayor Jeff Graham is now backing Hoffman. Former candidate Dede Scozzafava, on the other hand, is now cutting robocalls on Democrat Bill Owens’ behalf. Finally, here’s an ill omen on the motivation front: sparse turnout was reported for Joe Biden‘s appearance on behalf of Owens.

• PA-06: One more Republican is getting in the field in the open seat race in the 6th: Howard Cohen, a consultant who is the former Revenue Secretary from the Dick Thornburgh administration decades ago. He’ll face a financial gap against pharma exec Steven Welch, and a name rec gap against state Rep. Curt Schroder, though.

• AL-AG: One incumbent who looks badly endangered going into 2010 is Alabama’s Republican Attorney General, Troy King. Having buddied up with the state’s trial lawyers (thus angering the local business establishment) and also pissed off many local DAs by interfering in their cases, King has lost most establishment support in the upcoming GOP primary against Luther Strange. Two of Strange’s biggest backers are both of the state’s Senators, Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby.

• ME-Init: Two more polls on Maine’s Question 1 (where “yes” is a vote to overturn the state’s gay marriage law), both pointing to an excruciatingly close vote. PPP (taken over the weekend) sees it passing 51-47, while Research 2000 (taken last week) gives a tiny edge to “no,” 47-48. (R2K also confirms that Olympia Snowe’s numbers are way off; the once bulletproof Snowe now has approvals of 50/44.)

• NYC: Three more polls all show Michael Bloomberg with an easy path to a third term, beating Democratic comptroller William Thompson. Bloomberg leads 50-38 according to Quinnipiac, 53-42 according to SurveyUSA, and 53-38 according to Marist (pdf).

• Mayors: There are fresh polls in a few other mayoral races. In St. Petersburg, Florida, one of the most hotly contended races around, Bill Foster leads Kathleen Ford 48-44 according to SurveyUSA. (Foster leads among both blacks and conservatives.) The racially polarized race in Charlotte gives a small edge to the conservative white candidate, Andy Lassiter, who leads 50-46 over Anthony Foxx. And in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, all we know is that someone with a difficult-to-spell last name will be mayor. Matt Czajkowski leads Mark Kleinschmidt 45-44. (Czajkowski seems to be the conservative and Kleinschmidt the liberal.)

• State legislatures: In case there wasn’t enough to focus on tomorrow, Josh Goodman points to five legislative special elections tomorrow. The big one is Michigan‘s 19th Senate district, which was vacated by Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer. Republican former state Rep. Mike Nofs may have an edge for the pickup against Democratic state Rep. Martin Griffin, at least based on fundraising. There are also Dem-held seats up in Alabama’s 65th House district, Missouri’s 73rd House district, and Washington’s 16th House district (the reddest Dem-held seat in Washington), and a GOP-held seat in South Carolina’s 48th House district. (UPDATE: TheUnknown285 points us to a whopping seven legislative seats up from grabs in Georgia, too, in his diary.)

• NRCC: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 1? This seems odd, given that he’s had some pretty good success on the recruiting front, but apparently the behind-closed-doors potshots are hitting NRCC head Sessions just as heavily as they did Tom Cole last cycle. The complaints aren’t about recruiting, though, but rather about fundraising, where the NRCC is still lagging the DCCC despite the superficial conventional wisdom that Republicans come into 2010 with momentum, and about not keeping enough of a lid on all those nagging intraparty skirmishes that somehow only the blogosphere ever seems to notice.

• Polling: Mark Blumenthal has a thought-provoking piece on polling the cap-and-trade issue. The key problem: no one knows exactly what it is (reminiscent of polling the public option question, too).

• Voting: States are still trying to figure out what to do about the new federal law intended to make sure that military ballots from overseas get counted. At least a dozen states are now actively considering moving their September primaries up in the calendar to comply (including Minnesota, Vermont, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin).