Tag: IN-09

Research 2000 for WISHTV (9/29-10/3, likely voters):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 49

Mike Sodrel (R): 37

(MoE: ±5%)

When pressed for comment, the Mike Sodrel campaign refused to believe the veracity of any poll whose respondents were not hooked up to lie detectors.

Crosstabs available here.

You can’t make this stuff up:

Ninth District Republican Party Chairman Larry Shickles on Wednesday proposed the political polygraphs for Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, GOP challenger Mike Sodrel and Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg. The three are scheduled to debate Oct. 21, but an official with a debate co-sponsor said lie detectors won’t be included. […]

Shickles, in a letter sent Tuesday to 9th District Democratic Chairman Mike Jones, suggested that the candidates be hooked up to lie detecting machines at the Oct. 21 event or a separate debate.

“While this format may be unusual, I feel strongly that voters need to be able to make a clear decision without all the usual spin,” Shickles wrote.

Sodrel’s campaign said he would agree to the proposal, and Schansberg said he also would agree to wear a lie detector. Hill declined to comment.

Thomas over at Blue Indiana has more:

With recent polls showing him down by double-digits, I knew the guy was desperate, but that noise we all just heard was the fine line between “desperate” and “insane” flying right by our heads.

Words fail.

Roll Call has released a batch of new SurveyUSA House race polls (10/4-5, likely voters) with lots of good news for Democrats. In this post, we’ll look at their numbers for Democratic incumbents. DavidNYC has results for their polls of IL-10, NC-08, and NY-29 here.

IN-09 (9/8-10 in parens):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 53 (50)

Mike Sodrel (R): 38 (39)

Eric Schansberg (L): 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

Sodrel has been on a consistently downward trend ever since SUSA started tracking this race — back in July, he was at 42%. It looks like he picked the wrong year to mount a comeback. Remarkably, though perhaps not surprisingly given the tossup nature of Indiana this year, McCain only leads Obama by 49-47 in this R+7 district. To put that in perspective, Bush crushed Kerry by a 59-40 margin in this CD in 2004.

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 50

Jeb Bradley (R): 41

Bob Kingsbury (L): 3

Peter Bearse (I): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen giving Shea-Porter a clear lead. For what it’s worth, I like SUSA better than I like Research 2000 or the UNH’s flawed Granite State Poll, so these numbers are particularly pleasing. In the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 52-45 here.

PA-04:

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 54

Melissa Hart (R): 42

(MoE: ±4%)

What’s particularly impressive about this number for Altmire is that McCain has a wide lead over Obama in this R+2.6 district: 51-43. That’s similar to the 54-45 margin that Bush carried this district by in 2004, so it doesn’t look like McCain’s “coattails” will cause Altmire too much damage. The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a Hart internal, gave Altmire a 49-44 lead.

WI-08:

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 54

John Gard (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

A much better result than John Gard’s internal polling has been telling us. Special bonus finding: Obama is leading McCain’t by 52-45 in this R+4 district.

SurveyUSA (9/8-10, likely voters, 7/28-30):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 50 (49)

Mike Sodrel (R): 39 (42)

Eric Schansberg (L): 5 (4)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Hill is still looking good in his fourth straight head-to-head against warmed-over Republican retread Mike Sodrel.

Blue Indiana offers some local color. Sodrel has been running an usually quiet and low-energy race, and is still struggling to scrape together some decent coin.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

The polls just won’t stop today. SurveyUSA (7/28-30, likely voters, 6/16-18):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 49 (51)

Mike Sodrel (R): 42 (40)

Eric Schansberg (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much movement here since June, which is not surprising. Hill is the only freshman Democrat in Indiana who is expected to have a competitive race this year, but Sodrel hasn’t really been lighting many fires so far. By November, I think he might come to regret wasting yet another year of his life campaigning against Baron Hill.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-18):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 51

Mike Sodrel (R): 40

Eric Schansberg (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Hill is the only freshman House Democrat in Indiana who was expected to face a close contest this year, so these are encouraging numbers given Sodrel’s high profile. Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate takes a miniscule 2% of Dem and GOP voters, but 14% of independents.

It looks like Sodrel picked the wrong year to try to resurrect his political fortunes.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

It looks like Republicans are going to field another repeat candidate next fall: former Rep. Mike Sodrel will announce whether he’ll run against Democratic incumbent Baron Hill tomorrow, and a candidate doesn’t usually go through all this fuss unless they’re actually running:

  Mike Sodrel Will Announce His Decision

  When: 3:30pm on Tuesday, October 9th

  Where: Calumet Club
  1614 E. Spring Street
  New Albany, IN

  Please join us,

  David Buskill
  Chairman, Clark County Republican Party

If Sodrel is in, this would bring “rematch” to a whole new level — this would be the fourth time that he and Hill faced off against each other, with only the 2004 match-up being successful for Sodrel.

Race Tracker: IN-09

SUSA has released 3 more polls: IN-09, Hill-D down by 2; OH-06, Wilson-D up by 19; and MD-Gov, O’Malley up by 1. More below the fold.

IN-09:

Hill (D): 44

Sodrel (R-inc.): 46

Schansberg (L): 5

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Schansberg is pulling Liberal support away from Hill-D to the tune of picking up 11% of the Liberal vote, 2% of the Conservative vote, and 5% from Moderates.

OH-06 (OPEN):

Wilson (D): 58

Blasdell (R): 39

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

MD-Gov:

O’Malley (D): 48

Ehrlich (R-inc.): 47

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.8%)

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)