Today’s Electoral-Vote.com write-up says that Coleman’s lead has dwindled to just FIVE votes (out of some 2.9 million cast), with another 379 Coleman challenges to go today.
I don’t know how many more Franken challenges, absentee ballots, or other miscellany there are to go, though.
Also, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… says that the Lizard People ballot was rejected as an overvote (causing the person who hilariously made this ballot to probably become pissed at the canvassing board), but the Flying Spaghetti Monster and Frankenstin (sic) ballots were accepted as Franken votes.
Also, according to Coleman’s lawyer, “Lizard People” may in fact be the name of a real person. Hmm, are the dinosaurs coming back???
Finally, it seems that the Minnesota Star-Tribune is seeking the person who marked the now infamous Lizard People ballot.
UPDATE: http://news.google.com/news/ur… says that Franken is up some 262 votes now. But of course, let’s not forget that there are several thousand challenged ballots and another 1600 rejected absentees yet to be factored in. Don’t hold your breath, and don’t become complacent either.
Coleman has added to his lead, partly by challenging more ballots (2885 to 2738), but also
because there aren’t many Democratic areas to recount. St. Louis County is complete, Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are 87% and 81% complete, respectively. Of the eight counties not yet started, seven of them went to Coleman.
So is it over for Al? Without challenges, he’s only picked up 80 votes. And with the strong possibility that the missing absentee ballots might not be counted, it’s getting grimmer for Franken.
With 13% of precincts reporting, and 8% of the vote recounted, Norm Coleman is now ahead by 195 votes–a net gain of 20 for Al Franken. Norm Coleman’s camp is challenging more ballots: 105 vs. 89 from Franken’s camp.
Note that challenged ballots are set aside and not included in the recount totals.
At Intrade right now, Al Franken is at 57.5 and Mark Begich is at 66.8.
While the trading volumes aren’t that high, it appears the bettors think they have a really good chance win when the counting is finally completed. Nate Silver rates a Franken a “slight favorite” to win the recount (Franken is 206 votes behind).
There’s been little movement in Minnesota over the last few weeks, according to Rasmussen. Al Franken has lost a few points (apparently back to the undecided column), but things seem pretty stationary. The wild card in this race is independent Dean Barkley, but his rapid climb of the last couple months seems to have plateaued. This sample finds Coleman continuing to have trouble with the favorable/unfavorable question (46/50), while Franken actually cracks the 50% mark on favorability this time (51/47, with a very high 31% viewing him “very unfavorable”).
The Big 10 poll, primarily a poll of presidential battlegrounds in midwestern states, also came out today, and this time they threw in the Minnesota Senate race for good measure (so no trendlines available on this one). Here, Franken leads by 6. Obama leads McCain in this sample by a crushing 57-38.
Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.
The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.
However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.
Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):
Al Franken (D): 43 (37)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)
Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.
Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.
The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.
I’ll say it up front, I’ve always been bullish on Al Franken, even when others here were ripping on him, and already giving up on the race, and lamenting how the race would’ve been better with Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer. And one of the arguments used against Franken was that he had pissed off some other prominent Minnesota Democrats like Congresspeople Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison and Amy Klobuchar. There was quite a bit of hand-wringing going on.
Well, take a look below the fold to see what’s happened in the last couple days. (And from the links, yes, I got this stuff from MN Publius.
To start off, last week Al Franken visited homeowners facing foreclosure with Keith Ellison. And unlike previous statements, Ellison offered praise for Franken.
Franken and Ellison also took part in last Saturday’s Minneapolis Urban League’s annual Family Day Celebration at North Commons Park and made stops at two small shopping malls in South Minneapolis. Franken said he’s proud to be on the Democratic ticket headed by U.S. Senator Barack Obama and including Ellison, who is seeking his second congressional term.
“He [Obama] is going to need as many Democratic U.S. senators as possible to make sure that his agenda gets through,” candidate Franken said of Obama’s potential presidency. “I know that Keith has worked hard to get bills passed for addressing and alleviating the housing crisis. When I get to Washington, I look forward to standing beside Keith as we take the next step.”
Having two Senate Democrats in Congress will be helpful to push forward needed housing and anti-predatory mortgage lending legislation, said Ellison. “We need both houses [of Congress] working together and an administration working for us. Al isn’t just another Democrat, but a dynamic, energetic, charismatic voice that can help rally the public will to real solutions.“
I’ve gotten to know Al well as he’s traveled the state building a grassroots movement for change, and I know he’ll be a champion for Minnesota families in Washington.
On issues like health care, energy, the war in Iraq, and our economy here at home, Al will reject the failed policies of the Bush administration and fight for change. In fact, just today Al offered some bold, common-sense solutions to strengthen Minnesota’s schools. Al will never sell out to the special interests – he’ll stay loyal to Minnesotans and advocate everyday to help the middle class.
And last but not least, Betty McCollum, who acknowledges her earlier reservations about Franken.
“Crisis” now describes a long list of issues facing Minnesota families and our country. From healthcare to energy prices, the economy to ending the Iraq war – America faces serious challenges that require urgent action. In Washington, we need leaders who are willing to take America in a new direction. I am proud of the work Democrats in the U.S. House have accomplished to pass important legislation. Unfortunately, much of our work has been stalled in the U.S. Senate by an obstructionist Republican minority. That needs to change.
As I look forward to 2009, I want to be represented in the U.S. Senate by two Minnesota senators who will support and vote to advance our positive, action oriented Democratic agenda to strengthen our economy, keep our nation secure, and invest in our country’s future. That means in this year’s race for the U.S. Senate I will be voting for Al Franken.
This spring I voiced concerns about material from Al’s past career. To have remained silent when asked would have been hypocritical and dishonest. I am confident my concerns have been heard and since then I have watched Al’s campaign take steps to address these matters. Now, I believe Al and his campaign are appropriately focused on building a solid relationship with voters based on our shared Minnesota values, ideals, and hopes for the future. Like all candidates, Al understands that he is not only asking Minnesotans for their vote, but for their trust. As November 4th approaches, Al Franken will earn the trust of Minnesotans and I intend to work with him to win this election.
Fourth District DFLers, thank you for your on-going support. This year I will continue to campaign hard to turn out the vote to elect Barack Obama to the White House, Al Franken to the U.S. Senate, and win my own re-election to Congress. I know we will all work together in the 4th District to win in November and together take Minnesota and America in a new direction.
Franken has also just released this powerful ad called “Dr. Bob”, of a conservative Republican who praises Al for his patriotism and his commitment to our troops.
And please, don’t cite the SurveyUSA poll as evidence of how flawed Franken is. The poll’s crosstabs are bonkers.
Lurking just beneath the surface was a raw reality for the Coleman campaign: the poll’s partisan splits were completely bonkers.
The poll showed a sample of 33% self-identified DFLers and 32% self-identified Republicans. I wasn’t the only one to notice how insane that split is — my former colleague Eric Black also noticed:
But Rasmussen, which doesn’t release full cross-tabs to non-members like me, suggests that Coleman’s share of Democrats has declined from 20 to 10 percent and that this may be the factor that cost him the lead he held a month ago.
Little change
SUSA has shown little change since its previous poll on the race a month earlier. The most suspicious thing to me about SUSA’s current poll is that the Minnesota sample consisted of 33 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. Most polls (including the previous SUSA poll in Minnesota) find that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10-plus percentage points. The poll scholars on whom I rely for guidance tend to have a higher general opinion of SUSA than Rasmussen (and not too high an opinion of any robo-dialers). But if you’re looking for a reason to disbelieve this one, with its large and sturdy Coleman lead, the partisan makeup of the sample is suspicious.
Eric is in the right neighborhood here. Most polls shoot for about a 36-28 DFL advantage in party self-identification, perhaps a couple of points more due to Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Super-Duper Tuesday precinct caucuses. SurveyUSA is simply way out in left field with this poll.
According to one reader who apparently has a PhD in such things, if you multiply out the difference in partisan split between the last SurveyUSA poll and this one, Franken is actually doing about four points better than the previous S-USA poll — but I haven’t confirmed that yet…largely because I would need a PhD to understand what the heck I was doing.
I’ll add to that. From looking at the crosstabs a bit closer, another thing doesn’t make sense. Coleman’s best age group is young people. Does that make ANY sense to anybody out there?? Like I’ve said in the past, to take this poll at face value, even forgetting the bizarre partisan split, would be to say that come November, there’s going to be a shitload (a statistical term) of young people that vote for Barack Obama for President, and then pull the lever for Norm Coleman. Let that sink in. It makes about as much sense as “Vegetarians for Bush”.
And all this is before the GOP convention heads to St. Paul, and Coleman is forced to be tied to the hip to the national party, which he’s trying to distance himself from. Senators from other states who are up for re-election are skipping out, but Coleman can’t. And keep in mind Al’s torrid fundraising pace, which will allow him to be financially competitive with Coleman.
So please, people, stop writing Franken off. It doesn’t do us any good.