Ivan Moore for Anchorage Press (10/17-19, likely voters, 10/3-6 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 46 (49)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (45)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)
Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
After the initial shock of Ted Stevens’ indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we’re likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.
Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz’s favorables are as high as they’ve ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young’s positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll… but Young’s position in the head-to-head poll hasn’t improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it… but still plan to turn the page on him.
Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.