Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce this afternoon that he’ll be running against Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), setting up a political battle between an iconic figure in Alaska politics against one of the rising Democratic stars statewide.
Begich has called a news conference for 2:30 p.m. EST to “announce his plans regarding the United States Senate seat held by Sen. Ted Stevens,” according to a campaign statement.
This should be a great race.
The Politico reports that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce today that he is to run this fall against Ted Stevens for his Alaska Senate seat.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
The popular Begich should be able to make this a top-tier race as he already holds a lead against the corrupt Stevens in polling, 47-41.
A competitive race in Alaska? Who would have thought that? But it sure does look that way. It probably ranks just below the top 5 (VA, NM, NH, CO, MN) in order of seats most likely to change parties, maybe even ahead of Oregon and Maine.
With an outside chance in MS and perhaps even TX the impossible dream of 60 seats may actually be in reach.
Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:
We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.
Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.
Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.
The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).
So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.
This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.
Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.
Congressional politics is defying all electoral norms these days. Usually, parties fear retirements more than anything and do as much as they can to get their representatives and senators to run again. Last week, however, Republicans breathed a small sigh of relief when Rep. Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in AZ-1. Stuck in ethical investigations, Renzi was playing right in the hands of the Democratic argument that Republicans are ethically challenged, and he could have doomed GOP chances in his district. Republicans learned the lesson of 2006, when they lost many of their House seats in heavy Republican territory because the incumbent was embroiled in scandals. (The worst were girlfriend-beating and mistress-strangling allegations made against Sweeney in NY-20 and Sherwood in PA-10). An open seat, Republicans reason, might actually be easier to defend.
The same thing is happening now: the resilience of Senator Craig, Senator Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Doolittle (CA-4) in the face of scandal are making their seats pick-up opportunies for Democrats. If any of these Republicans were to retire, Democratic chances would diminish.
Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.
Senator Craig is the only one I believe should not retire, given the shady nature of the police report and Republican hypocrisy. But it is undeniable that his running for re-election is what gives Democrats the best shot. Yesterday, Mitch McConnell talked to Craig and confirmed reports that Craig was going to fight to invalidate his own guilty plea — and would stay in the Senate if he succeeded. McConnell implied he thought Craig should stay away from the Senate, and furious Republicans said the same, and moved to already replace Craig on the Senate committees he vacated last week.
But all might not be lost for Democrats even if Craig does resign. Idaho Governor Otter was reported yesterday to be considering appointing a place-holder, meaning someone who will not run for a full-term in 2008. Otter reportedly said that too many Republicans want the job, so that it would be unfair of him to act as a one-man Republican primary. In such a case, Otter would allow Lt. Gov Rish, Rep. Simpson and otehr Idaho Republican figures to fight it out in the primary, and then compete for an open seat. Republicans would probably still be favored, but La Rocco would at least have an opening.
Alaska Democrats have not been able to capitalize on opportunities the past few cycles, with former Governor Knowles losing a very tight Senate race in 2004 and a not-so-tight race for Governor in 2006. The Republican bench in Alaska is deep, and the Palin v. Knowles race 2006 indicated that the GOP has a huge edge in case of open seats. So, Dems have no chance against veteran Senator Stevens in 2008? Not so fast. We all remember how the FBI raided Stevens’s house last month. Yesterday came news from The Hill that the allegations of unethical behavior are mounting against Stevens:
Sen. Ted Stevens has quietly steered millions of federal dollars to a sportfishing industry group founded by Bob Penney, a longtime friend who helped the Alaska Republican profit from a lucrative land deal, according to public records and officials from the state. Critics say those earmarked federal dollars could be the first example of how Stevens rewarded Penney for a land deal in Utah that reportedly earned the senator more than $125,000. Penney’s group, for its part, rewarded Stevens with several expensive gifts at the time it was receiving the earmarked dollars.
With Anchorage Mayor Begich possibly getting in the race, Democrats would have an easier time making a case against Sen. Stevens than winning an open seat.
Rep. Doolittle represents a very Republican district of California that should be no trouble for Republicans. But he is being investigated for corruption and for his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Plagued by the scandal, Doolittle barely survived in the 2006 election, edging Democrat Brown by a few points. Brown is back for a rematch, and knows that the Republican edge of the district would be to much to overcome if it wasn’t for Doolittle’s troubles. Yesterday, things got a bit more difficult for Doolittle, as two of his aides were subpoenaed to testify in front of a grand jury.
And then came out this poll from a Republican polling firm (Wilson Research Strategies) showing that Doolittle would lose against Charlie Brown 51% to 31%. Doolittle, who is facing a Republican primary against several candidates, would edge out his competitors with only 34% of the vote. You better believe Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign or lose the primary. Or they might as well give up any hope of keeping CA-4 come November 2008.
Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.
[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update. Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.
Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle. With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.
(See below for the full update.)
UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007. This is a gigantic red flag. Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector. He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter. Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.
UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal. Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here. First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month. Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend. Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid. Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement. While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.
UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.” Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid. It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.
EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1. However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect. First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired. Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process? Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority. Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?
EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid. But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary. And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days. Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.
EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch. Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position. An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.
DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”
DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.
With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:
Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)
On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)
Loading ...(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)
(Cross-posted on my DKos diary. I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic. What have you heard in your states? Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid. Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)
We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008. 21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect. And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats. This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”
DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.
Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.
Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.
This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.
Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum. After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment. And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss. Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.
1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring
2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid. However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside
3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement
4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see
5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November
6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid
7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up
8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas
9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign
10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court
11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)
12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)
Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements. While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.
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