Tag: Mike Castle

• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he’s seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.

• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he’s out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter’s ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.

• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y’know, follow the rule of law)… or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he’ll need in 2012 if he’s going to have any hope in the presidential primary.

• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn’t buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it’s a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn’t be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).

• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is “considering” another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he’d have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there’s also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.

• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).

• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn’t yet decided how he’ll vote on the Democrats’ budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)

• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it’s a good pick. It’s Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census’s associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won’t be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 32

Mike Castle (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 19

Chris Coons (D): 21

Mike Castle (R-inc): 56

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±3.5%)

This poll is already a couple of days old now, but it’s still worth a look. After being given a pass by Democrats since he was first elected to the House in 1992, PPP tests Castle against two credible potential 2010 foes: former Lt. Gov. John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (Carney has expressed interest in the race, but I’m not sure if I can say the same for Coons). The results are unsurprising: Castle would begin the campaign with a wide lead, but rests just under the 50% bubble against Carney. Tom Jensen takes a look under the hood:

Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.

There’s also a matter of name recognition, which is still an issue for Carney despite a high profile gubernatorial primary campaign last fall; a full 35% of voters don’t have an opinion of him either way. In other words: Carney has room to grow, and while this would be an uphill climb, he’d have an outside shot at an upset — and perhaps an even better shot if Castle’s campaign skills prove rusty.

Another point worth mentioning about this poll is the rather surprising fact that it was written up by the National Journal’s Hotline. In case you’re not aware, in previous cycles, the Hotline had clung to a strict policy of ignoring the existence of IVR (a.k.a. “automated”) polling, seemingly in adherence to the Beltway belief that automated polling is unreliable and untrustworthy (“the dog could be answering the questions!”). I’m not sure what’s behind the editorial change-of-heart over at the Hotline (perhaps the generally solid performance of IVR firms in 2008 had something to do with it), but I’m glad that they’ve made the decision to join the 21st Century.

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters):

Beau Biden (D): 36

Mike Castle (R): 44

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.5%)

If Mike Castle ran, he’s in a position to do some serious damage… but we have no indication that the 71-year-old congressman is seriously mulling this race, other than being on the receiving end of a series of pleas from John Cornyn. While a campaign against Biden would force a grueling schedule on a guy who’s run into some health issues in recent years, and would undoubtedly attract a great deal of national money, he starts off the race with solid approvals: 54-33.

PPP will release re-elect numbers for Castle against former Lt. Governor John Carney on Thursday. That should be interesting to see, but I suspect Castle will again start off in strong shape.

More discussion is already underway in conspiracy’s diary.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Castle (R) 44%

Biden (D) 36%

“Mike Castle has served in statewide office now for almost 30 years and that higher level of familiarity with Delaware voters gives him an advantage over Beau Biden,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Biden’s numbers would surely improve as he became more well known to voters in a statewide campaign but I’m sure the Democrats would nonetheless be quite happy for Congressman Castle to stay where he is.”

44-36 strikes me as kinda lousy considering Castle is an institution in the state. Not that many expect him to run anyway but on this evidence even if he does I think Biden would still win quite easily. Against anyone but Castle it is over before it starts obviously.

Outgoing Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney says in a podcast (go to about 19:45):

It’s been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I gotta tell you, that’s something I’m looking at right now.

This is pretty big news – Carney would probably be our best bet to take on Castle in 2010. (DE, regularly blue for several cycles, went for the Obama-Biden ticket by a 62-37 margin.) Carney also mentions that he might be interested in a Senate run. However, in this interview, he suggests that he’s not interested in repeat his bruising 2008 gubernatorial primary experience in a Senate face-off with, say, Beau Biden. So if Beau runs for his dad’s old seat, Carney could well take on Old Man Mike.

(Thanks to Jeremiah for spotting SG’s catch of this Delaware Liberal post.)