Tag: RPI

Seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell is only the 64th most vulnerable Democrat in the House of Representatives, according to Crisitunity’s “vulnerability index,” but Iowa Republicans still like their chances against him. Five candidates have already entered the GOP primary, and two others I’ve never heard of were reportedly collecting signatures on nominating petitions at the off-year caucuses on January 23. The field may expand before the filing deadline in March.

A few recent developments in the Republican primary race are after the jump.

Former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons is way ahead in the money race, thanks to support from heavy-hitters like ethanol baron Bruce Rastetter as well as a number of political action committees. After announcing his candidacy in November, Gibbons raised $207,310, spent $2,240 and ended the year with $205,069 on hand and $2,686 in debts owed. In the fourth quarter, he raised more money than Boswell, who collected $169,377, spent $50,643 and had $462,193 cash on hand as of December 31. (Most of Boswell’s fourth-quarter fundraising came from political action committees.)

Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican blog has been promoting Gibbons’ candidacy for a while now, and he is ready to declare victory for Gibbons in the primary already, based on the fundraising numbers. However, Bleeding Heartland user mirage (a supporter of State Senator Brad Zaun) noted in the same thread, “About $51,000 of Gibbons funds will be restricted (meaning they can’t be used against Zaun in a primary), and about $130,000 came from outside the 3rd district.”

Speaking of Zaun, he raised $30,600 during the fourth quarter, spent $93 and ended 2009 with $30,507 on hand. Presumably he has raised more money since January 1, because he made a television ad buy last week. It’s generic Republican fare with low production values:

Zaun was the first up on television, but as Robinson noted triumphantly, “Even if [Dave] Funk or Zaun raised $1000 everyday between now and the primary, they still wouldn’t match what Gibbons currently has in his campaign account.”

Funk, the IA-03 candidate favored by the Tea Party crowd, raised $22,685 in the fourth quarter, spent $19,553 and ended the year with $16,507 on hand. According to mirage, much of Funk’s remaining money is restricted for use after the primary. I don’t think he’ll be needing that.

Mark Rees, who is running as a more moderate Republican, raised $3,100 and loaned his own campaign $52,647. He spent $3,247 and ended the year with $52,500 and $52,647 in debts owed to himself. I don’t know how much of a moderate GOP base is left in the Des Moines suburbs, but if conservatives divide their support among three or four candidates, Rees could slip through.

Yesterday we learned about an internal poll of the GOP race, conducted by Victory Enterprises, campaign consultants for Zaun. I posted the whole polling memo from Victory Enterprises at Bleeding Heartland. The poll was conducted on January 27 and 28 and surveyed 400 Republicans in Iowa’s third Congressional district who are likely to vote in the June primary.

The poll shows 60 percent of respondents were undecided about whom to support in the primary. Zaun had 26 percent support, compared to 5 percent for Gibbons, 3.6 percent for Funk, 2.1 percent for Pat Bertroche and 1 percent for Rees. In Polk County, the population center of the district, 37.5 percent of respondents supported Zaun. His family has owned hardware stores in the Des Moines area, and he is a former mayor of Urbandale, a large suburb. His state senate district includes Urbandale and part of Des Moines.

About half the respondents hadn’t heard of Zaun. (This poll was in the field before his tv ad went up on January 29.) I was more surprised to see that 67.8 percent of respondents said they had never heard of Gibbons. His supporters have promoted him as almost a celebrity candidate, because he was the last person to lead Iowa State to a national championship in wrestling.

Several of the candidates will gain more name recognition in the coming months as they begin to advertise and hold campaign events around the districts. Gibbons clearly will have the resources for an extensive paid media campaign. National Republicans seem to have picked Gibbons already, which is one reason he’s pulled in so much out of state PAC money.

Robinson brings you the pro-Gibbons spin on Zaun’s internal poll at The Iowa Republican blog:

Zaun’s early activity is similar to that of another former Victory Enterprises client, 2008 2nd Congressional District candidate Peter Teahen. In May of 2008, Victory Enterprises polled the 2nd Congressional District. Teahen, the better known candidate from the largest county in the district, had a big lead in the poll.

In VE’s 2008 poll showed Peter Teahen with 36% of the vote, while Miller-Meeks had 14 percent, and Lee Harder netted 7.5 percent. Forty-one percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. Despite the Teahen’s early lead, Miller-Meeks won the primary by 218 votes.

The difference between the 2008 2nd District race and this year’s 3rd District primary is that Gibbons has created a huge fundraising advantage over his opponents. Thus far, Gibbons has not run any ads, sent mail, or paid for phone calls.

The money race between Teahen and Miller-Meeks in the primary was tight. While Miller-Meeks outraised her opponent, Teahen had the ability to loan his campaign a considerable amount of money. Gibbons has already raised more money in his first fundraising quarter than Miller-Meeks and Teahen spent combined in the 2nd District primary.

I agree with Robinson that this race is up for grabs with so many Republicans undecided and most of the candidates lacking name recognition. I also think Boswell will be re-elected, despite the Republican wave that may be coming. None of the GOP candidates seem impressive, and the eventual nominee will have little cash left after the primary.

“Sources close to [former Governor Terry] Branstad” tell WHO-TV’s Dave Price that Branstad will announce his candidacy for a fifth term as governor this Friday. Whatever the date, it’s obvious Branstad has committed to the race.

Join me after the jump for recent news and unintentional comedy from the Branstad camp.  

On Monday Jeff Boeyink resigned as executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa in order to head the exploratory committee Branstad created last Wednesday. Representing the Branstad campaign, Richard Schwarm said Boeyink’s hire “does not signal any change in Terry Branstad’s status as a potential gubernatorial candidate.” However, everyone knows Boeyink would not quit his full-time position with the GOP without assurances that Branstad will enter this race.

From Tom Beaumont’s article for the Des Moines Register:

Boeyink, 46, had been with the influential Republican-leaning Iowans for Tax Relief more than 20 years, where he worked his way up to president before becoming the state Republican Party’s executive director in February.

Boeyink said his work with fundraising, policy, lobbying and political advocacy for the group would serve him well, should Branstad continue on his path toward a comeback campaign.

“This campaign is going to have tens of thousands of active supporters. Mobilizing them will be very important, should Governor Branstad move forward,” Boeyink said.

Boeyink confirmed today that Branstad will hold a public media availability later this week. He also told Iowa Politics

it was hard to leave the party, but described his new job as a phenomenal opportunity and a dream come true.

“The opportunity to be involved in what potentially will be the most significant campaign in our state’s history — somebody in my profession, it’s something you cannot say ‘no’ to,” Boeyink said.

“Governor Branstad…is somebody that I truly believe in; he’s the first person I ever voted for,” said Boeyink, a father of three who’s the former president of Iowans for Tax Relief. “This is kind of a dream come true, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity…I’m a true believer, always have been.”

Over at The Iowa Republican blog, Craig Robinson speculates about likely candidates to replace Boeyink as executive director of the Iowa GOP.

These past few days, the Iowa Democratic Party noticed that the Draft Branstad PAC has continued to advocate for Branstad, in apparent violation of Iowa law:

“Breaking the law at the start of your campaign” said [Iowa Democratic Party Chair Michael Kiernan] “really sends an awful message to Iowans about what kind of leadership you will offer going forward.”

Screen captures indicate the 527 organization group continues to advocate for Branstad by name, even after he filed to become a candidate for Governor six days ago. Iowa election law prohibits so-called “527” groups from engaging in express advocacy on behalf of any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board executive director Charlie Smithson, in media reports Tuesday, indicated his agency is on notice of Draft Branstad’s violation of Iowa law and is recommending corrective action be taken.

By the time Smithson acts, the Draft Branstad PAC will be no more. Sandy Greiner announced plans to wind down the organization in a press release on Tuesday:

“Just last week, an exploratory committee was formed for Governor Branstad to possibly seek the governorship.

Today, we have learned that Governor Branstad has asked Jeff Boeyink, a seasoned political operative to join his exploratory committee in an important managerial role.

These two pieces of news are very exciting, and we believe that Governor Branstad will not only be an official candidate for governor, but will also be the next Governor of the State of Iowa.

Thousands of Iowans have joined the Draft Branstad Facebook page, signed the Draft Branstad petition on our website and followed us on Twitter, and Governor Branstad has clearly listened.

With today’s news about Mr. Boeyink, Draft Branstad is officially announcing our draft efforts are complete – a real grassroots mission accomplished!

I have enjoyed meeting and working with young Iowans from all around the state – you are truly the future of Iowa.

Thank you to the thousands of Iowans who have been instrumental in making this effort a success.  While Draft Branstad PAC will draw to a close, our efforts will not cease; instead we will continue this movement for change here in Iowa.

Please follow our new organization- NextGenPAC- that will work day in and day out to perfect the change Iowans desire.

We will release more information soon about this exciting new organization that will be focused on bringing about the change so many Iowans want right now in our state.”

In terms of dishonest image construction, “grassroots mission accomplished” is impressive. The Draft Branstad PAC operation was textbook “astroturf” (fake grassroots) fueled by big money. There’s nothing grassroots about the way Republican heavy-hitters wooed Branstad this summer. By the time the Draft Branstad PAC hit the scene in early September, the former governor had probably already decided to run.

Then again, The Daily Show’s writing crew couldn’t have come up with a more hilarious name for Greiner’s new organization than “NextGenPAC.” Branstad last gave off a “nextgen” vibe about three decades ago.

Christian Fong offered himself up as a next-generation candidate for governor, complete with campaign coordinators on Iowa campuses. Republican insiders and money men placed their bets on yesterday’s man instead. That’s understandable, but don’t pretend it’s forward-looking.

I expect the Branstad campaign to announce some big fundraising numbers soon, and I wish Iowa Democrats had passed limits on campaign contributions since taking control of the state legislature in 2006.

Please share your view of the Branstad campaign in this thread. I added a poll to this post based on a recent conversation with a friend. I think Culver is more likely to defeat Branstad than a Democrat is to defeat Grassley next year. My friend thinks the eventual Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate has a much better chance of beating Grassley than Culver has of beating Branstad. Take the poll and, if you like, explain your vote in the comments.

P.S.- Radio Iowa has the latest Christie Vilsack comments that have fueled speculation she’s ready to take on Grassley. But the political gossip columnist for Des Moines’ Cityview weekly thinks the mystery candidate is Roxanne Conlin, and Grassley should be concerned.