Tag: VA-11

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

Former Gov. Jim Gilmore must be smiling at the news:

Republican leaders gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore a boost today by choosing to hold a convention to nominate the party’s candidate to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

The party’s state central committee voted 47 to 37 to hold a convention rather than a primary.

Gilmore, the more conservative choice, is seen as having an edge among the party’s inner circle over the more moderate Rep. Tom Davis.  However, his personal appeal in the state is severely weakened by his embarrassing record as Governor.  Did the Republicans just hand Mark Warner a Senate seat on a silver platter?

What’s more, the prospect of a convention could cause Davis to walk away from the Senate contest altogether:

There was speculation that Davis, now, would not seek the nomination, leaving the field to Gilmore. A Davis spokesman said he would announce his intentions after the Nov. 6 General Assembly elections.

A non-candidacy by Davis would make picking up his House seat, which is trending in favor of Democrats in federal races, a much more difficult task.

Republican reaction can be found here.

With the likely retirement of Republican Rep. Tom Davis from the House in order to pursue a Senate bid against Democratic superstar Mark Warner next year, Republicans will be left to defend a House seat in northern Virginia that is trending hard in the Democrats’ favor.  With a PVI of R+0.6, Davis’ district went to Bush twice: by 7% in 2000, but only by a slim 1% margin in 2004.  Additionally, Mark Warner carried this district by a 55.5%-43.8% margin in his 2001 gubernatorial bid.  Democrat Tim Kaine carried it by a 55.67%-42.42% margin in 2005, and Jim Webb edged Republican Sen. George Allen in the district by 54.69%-44.20%.

It’s no surprise then, that local and national Democrats are eyeing this district hungrily.  Navy vet Doug Denneny was the first to declare for the seat, and others are expected to follow.  According to Lowell over at Raising Kaine, a familiar Virginia name is soon to follow:

Today, former 11th District Congresswoman Leslie Byrne filed an exploratory committee: “Byrne for Congress Exploratory Committee.”  Looks like the race to replace Tom Davis is heating up!

Byrne, as you may recall, represented the 11th District for one term after the 1992 elections, before being routed in the Republican sweep of 1994.  She lost the primary for the Democratic Senate nomination in 1996 (to Mark Warner, no less), but narrowly won election as a state Senator for a single term from 1999-2003.  In 2005, she ran as the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor.  Not favored to win statewide, the Democratic tide in the state lifted her to within 1% of Republican Bill Bolling’s vote total.

I don’t have a moose in this race, but I’m very curious to see how this primary unfolds, and if this development will affect the decision-making process of Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly.

Race Tracker: VA-11

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

Senate Republicans have not been doing well for a while now. But the GOP’s disarray is now extending to the House! The series of Republicans congressmen (Pryce, Hastert, LaHood, Peckering, …) declaring their intention to retire in August started the wave of bad news, but this past week shows the GOP’s House problems go much deeper than these open seats.

Read full analysis here,  on Campaign Diaries.

First, there is the speculation about more Republicans retiring. Most of it comes from VA-11, where Rep. Davis is mulling a run for Senate, and CA-4, where Rep. Doolittle is being investigated for his links to lobbyist Abramoff. In Virginia, Republicans will have a very hard time holding the seat in Democratic-trending Northern Virginia if Davis goes for the Senate seat — but it looks very likely Davis will seek to upgrade. And in California, Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign, but he declared a few days ago that he will be in it to the end — sending chills down Republicans’ spine (Doolittle would handily lose this very red district if he remained the GOP nominee).

And could there now be a new open seat, one that would be even more terrifying for Republicans? Could the last Republican-held seat of New England finally open up, and then surely send a Democrat to Capitol Hill? It looks like that might be the case. Rep. Chris Shays, who edged out Diane Farrell in 2004 and in 2006 by extremely close margins, is now saying he will bow out if Republican leaders do not support his attempt to become top Republican on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Furthermore, he said, if he is promised the spot and then denied after the election, he will immediately resign. Shays added,
“I’m 61 years old. I’ve been in Congress 20 years. If I have to fight to become chairman of a committee, given the job I’ve done, I need to move on.”

There is no doubt that an open seat would make the seat as sure a Democratic pick-up as an open seat can ever be.  But even if he runs he will be one of the top Democratic targets. But Shays is facing a very tough re-election race once again in 2008 against already very well-funded and highly-touted Democrat Jim Himes. Shays was always known as a maverick moderate Republican, but he has become an increasingly loyal GOP house member in recent years by supporting the war effort (remember his seemingly weekly trips to Iraq in 2006?). The Hartford Courant writes:

Four years ago, things were different: Shays was winning elections easily, and he knew he was being punished by House Republican leaders because he led the fight for campaign finance reform. Times now are different. Shays has been a fairly loyal Republican, particularly on the Iraq war, and has been a loyal member of the committee, where he chaired its national security subcommittee before Democrats won control of the House last year.

Then come Republican recruitement failures. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes of the dire state of Georgia Republicans, who are failing to come up with serious challengers to two of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents: Jim Marshall (8th) and John Barrow (12th). Both Democrats barely survived in 2006 (by one-two points each), but Republicans are not setting themselves up for a similar opportunity in 2008, especially against John Barrow. And today, Republican Mike Carey withdrew his candidacy in Ohio’s 18th district, one of the most Republicans in Ohio that is today represented by Democrat Zach Space. OH-18 is supposed to be one of the GOP’s 2-3 top pick-up opportunities, but that still requires them to field a strong candidate.

Add to all of this the mounting controversy over Republican House leader Boehner’s assessment that soldiers’ lives and the country’s money is a “small price” to pay for what we are achieving in Iraq. McCain even joined in the fray today, condemning Boehner’s remarks. And the Democrats are pouncing: Kerry – who wrote a piece about this for the Huffington Post, probably enjoying his revenge after the bogus scandal around his botched joke in the fall of 2006 – and Dean denounced Boehner in strong terms.

The picture is certainly not as perfect for Democrats in the House as it is in the Senate, but things are going their way. Check my blog this week-end for ratings of this cycle’s House races.

Read more at www.campaigndiaries.com

If you ever watched the movie “Top Gun”, this guy is the real thing and he’s running for Congress as a Democrat according to Raising Kaine.

As a Naval Flight Officer, I led over 200 people as a commanding officer of a fighter squadron and I was a TOPGUN instructor.  I am a combat veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and I was one of few aviators awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for valor in combat.  Upon my return, I worked directly for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I am a leader, and I understand first-hand the complexities of this war and the need to create an exit strategy to bring our troops home safely.

I have a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy.  At the graduate level, I have a Master of Arts in National Security Studies and a certificate in legislative studies from Georgetown University.  I’ve studied economics for a term at Oxford University in England.  I?ve completed a political candidate training program at UVA?s Sorensen Institute, and I was a national security fellow at MIT’s Seminar XXI fellowship program.  For a living, I sell Navy jet aircraft for Boeing. 

I am most proud of my role as husband to a wonderful wife and father to two terrific kids.  I ask you to join me as I fight to change America?s future and improve our lives in Virginia?s 11th District.  Please vote for me on November 4, 2008.

Well, he apparently assumes there will be no primary, which there will be if Tom Davis leaves the seat. This guy looks like he comes out on Central Casting and is definately worthy of a look.

We don’t have a crystal ball.  We never understood Tarot cards.  We can’t read Senator John Warner’s mind.  And we certainly don’t have any informants in the upper ranks of the Virginia Republican Party.

But we do have FEC filings, and they may very well be just as useful to find out whether John Warner is running for another term in the Senate or not.  As you may recall, rumors were floating last month that Warner had signalled his preferred successor, Rep. Tom Davis, to prepare himself to run in his place.  This was amidst news that Mark Warner, the mind-bogglingly popular former Virginia Governor, was considering a Senate run regardless of Warner’s decision.

Well, Tom Davis filed his first quarter fundraising reports today, and money talks:

Tom Davis (R): $623,463 raised; $833k cash-on-hand

$623k almost two years before the next election is an astronomical amount raised for a House campaign.  While I haven’t seen all of the fundraising reports, it could very well be the highest haul of all House members this year.  The next higest fundraising total was a similarly impressive number: $600k for freshman Democrat Ron Klein of Florida.  Klein, however, occupies a bizarrely-drawn district with an insanely expensive media market, so he needed to post a larger-than-average 1Q report to deter any potentially strong challengers.

Stack up Davis’ $623,000 next to Warner’s five Benjamins (yes, that’d be $500 even) raised during the same time frame, and I think we may have some pretty compelling evidence to believe that John Warner is heavily leaning towards retirement.

Let the games begin.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

As we all know by now, the DSCC is heavily courting former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008–and, remarkably, Warner is not ruling it out, even if longtime incumbent John Warner decides not to retire.

What this creates is a possible dream scenario in Virginia:  John Warner, having survived a close call by a self-funding Mark Warner in 1996, had a difficult enough time beating back a challenge against a political unknown, winning by only 5 points.  At the time, the elder Warner remarked:  “It was tough – a tough two years.”  The conventional wisdom is that John Warner, who will be 81 in 2008, would not mind another term in the Senate–he just doesn’t want to campaign for it.

So, Mark Warner enters the race.  John Warner gets the spooks and announces an early retirement, making way for his preferred successor: 11th district Rep. Tom Davis (R).  In fact, the WaPo has already indicated that Warner has signaled Davis to get ready:

However, some doubt John Warner’s commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. “Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready,” the source said.

Davis would be a pretty strong candidate for the Republicans: he currently represents one of their weaker areas of the state–the rapidly diversifying D.C. suburbs in Prince William and Fairfax counties.  This is the one region that has been nudging Virginia closer and closer to the left.  Take a look at the district’s chronolgy:

2004: John Kerry wins 49.29% of the district’s vote to George Bush’s 49.92%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) wins 55.67% of the vote to Jerry Kilgore’s 42.42%
2006: Jim Webb (D) wins 54.69% of the vote to George Allen’s 44.20%

So Davis could be strong statewide against an average Virginia Democrat, but he wouldn’t stand a chance against Mark Warner, who retired with a mind-boggling 80% approval rate.  And with the recent robust victories of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the 11th, Democrats would clearly be well-poised to capture this open seat with a strong candidate.  Any idea who we’d run for it?

Man oh man, what a glorious twofer it would be: a pick-up in both the Senate and House–both of which will be badly-needed to protect and expand the Democratic majorities.  If Chuck Schumer pulls this off (and he has had some stellar success in the past in this area–see Missouri, 2006), he could very well be elevated to demigod status.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11