Tag: Charlie Melancon

• NY-20 (pdf): The latest update from the state BoE this morning shows Scott Murphy’s lead down to 25, as the absentee count proceeds (and a few readjustments are made to recanvass numbers). We’re still waiting on any absentee numbers from Saratoga County (Tedisco’s base) and most from Washington and Warren Counties (Murphy’s base).

Also, there’s been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently “Thunderdome” is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to “hurry up” and announce whether or not he’s running for re-election in 2010. Davis’s sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he’s considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn’t want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn’t reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn’t going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven’t reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn’t gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he’s raised enough that retirement doesn’t seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big “get” in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation’s largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who’ll be hearing Norm Coleman’s whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former “Ten Commandments” judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it’s an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it’s possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he’s returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs’ GOP chairs. In a display of ‘post-partisanship’ at its finest, he’s reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won’t run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. “I don’t know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level,” she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th’s most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the ‘can’t make this stuff up’ department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for “rubber stamping” Nancy Pelosi’s “San Francisco-style budget” (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they’re singling out OH-18’s Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 41

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Don Cazayoux (D): 39

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Charlie Melancon (D): 40

Jay Dardenne (R): 49

Don Cazayoux (D): 38

Jay Dardenne (R): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

David Vitter (R-inc): 43

Jay Dardenne (R): 32

Stormy Daniels (R): 1

(MoE: ±5%)

David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.

Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)

On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.

Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)

David Vitter continues to dodge bullets:

Late last week, former Rep. John Cooksey (R-La.) was reportedly interested in taking on Vitter in the primary. But the former 5th district Congressman announced Monday that he is not running, in a statement that included some nuance.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter’s position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said in a statement to the Concordia Sentinel. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him.”

I think we all know which “social issue” in particular Cooksey is referring to. In more good news for Vitter, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon says that he’s probably not going to run:

Despite the urging of state and national Democrats, local Congressman Charlie Melancon says that, at least for now, he has decided against running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. […]

“Never say never,” Melancon told The Courier Thursday, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.”

Democrats still have a number of other potential candidates on the table, including ex-Rep. Chris John and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard. I remain convinced that Republicans have a more-than-good shot at retaining this seat, but we’ll have some raw data to look at soon: Daily Kos will release primary and general election polling numbers from Louisiana later this week.

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish.

As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:

LA-01

Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Jim Harlan	$595,399.05	$41,020.99	$525,000	$554,378.06

No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn’t do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers

LA-02

There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Troy “C” Carter	$51,112	$34,120.01	$87,906.27	-$1,442.37

Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I’ve corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it’ll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you’ll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Cedric Richmond	$111,800	$17,895.39	$100,000	$193,904.61

The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.

LA-03

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Charlie Melancon	$237,858.13	$52,243.17	$0.00	$1,042,583.14

Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots’ Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.

LA-04

There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district – Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis “Doc” Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Willie Banks	$3,267	$8,788.31	$10,000	$11,545.16

The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He’s having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he’s running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.

That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:

On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives.  All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots.  This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts.  The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats.  Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:

Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.

And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.

So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004.  When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.

So what happened?  By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not.  Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown.  Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall.  By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.

Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits.  As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year.  With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.

The stakes of this are fairly high.  Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans.  On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.

Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu?  Not well, I would argue.

If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats.  With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial.  Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.

The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle.  Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out?  Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov | LA-Sen | LA-03