Tag: Jr.

It seems that the “I only speak to real Americans” quitter Palin may in fact be running for President in ’12. She’s come out with a list of 20 targets – D house members who

– voted for HCR

– represent districts won by McCain in ’08.

The full list and propaganda are available on her Facebook page, ref http://www.facebook.com/notes/…

It seems like this could also be used to motivate the base to support these sometimes blue dog vulnerable Ds, as they supported HCR.

As Richard Nixon showed in the ’66 election, one path to the R nomination is based on campaigning for others in their party.

But such an effort would help Palin only if perhaps a majority of targeted incumbents are defeated. By definition, Ds in districts that McCain won in ’08 are in a more difficult position, but I think at least a few are entrenched.

Of these 20, 3 are retiring. (Vic Snyder AR-02, Brad Ellsworth IN-08, Bart Gordon TN-06). While we’ve got a shot of holding IN-08, it’s possible Rs will carry all 3. So Palin would need 8 of the remaining 17 to say she “won a majority of targets” and declare victory.

Just comparing the remaining names to one set of projections, (Sabato, ref http://www.centerforpolitics.o… (* highlights members of the blue dog caucus)

Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1     – tossup

* Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5   – lean D

* Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8  – lean D

* John Salazar, CO-3        – lean D

* Betsy Markey, CO-4        – tossup

* Allen Boyd, FL-2          – likely D

Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24  – tossup

* Baron P. Hill, IN-9       – tossup

* Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL       – tossup

* Charlie Wilson, OH-6      – not on board (assume solid D)

John Boccieri, OH-16      – lean D

* Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3    – lean D

* Christopher Carney, PA-10 – lean D

John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 – lean D

Tom Perriello, VA-5       – tossup

Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1    – likely D

Nick J. Rahall, WV-3      – not on board (assume solid D)

Of course, Sabato’s predictions are an arbitrary measure. I disagree with some of Sabato’s predictions. But assuming Palin has to win 8 of the remaining 17, she’d have to help Rs carry all 6 of the tossups, plus 2 of the 7 “lean Ds”.

Again, while over half of these targeted Ds are “blue dogs,” they all voted for HCR.

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish.

As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:

LA-01

Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Jim Harlan	$595,399.05	$41,020.99	$525,000	$554,378.06

No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn’t do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers

LA-02

There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Troy “C” Carter	$51,112	$34,120.01	$87,906.27	-$1,442.37

Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I’ve corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it’ll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you’ll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Cedric Richmond	$111,800	$17,895.39	$100,000	$193,904.61

The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.

LA-03

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Charlie Melancon	$237,858.13	$52,243.17	$0.00	$1,042,583.14

Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots’ Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.

LA-04

There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district – Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis “Doc” Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Willie Banks	$3,267	$8,788.31	$10,000	$11,545.16

The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He’s having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he’s running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.

I AM!

Today, State Senator Don Cravins, Jr. announced his candidacy for Congress as a Democrat! Cravins said that he’s running because:

The people of Louisiana are ready for a change and deserve representation that is line with their values. I am running for Congress because we need a leader who will work to find solutions to the hard times we face right now, like the skyrocketing cost of gas, groceries, and health care. I promise to bring my record of effective leadership and my strong faith and Louisiana values to Congress.”

It’s about time we take this seat back from Congressman Boustany, who can’t be bothered to bring home all the bacon he can so towns like Cameron, LA can rebuild after Rita. It’s about time we take this seat back from a Congressman that flip-flopped on healthcare for children … he originally opposed SCHIP, the health care program for children. Then he saw that the Democratic Party was gunning for him, and he changed his tune. We need somebody who has better judgment than that the first time around, and doesn’t need to be threatened with a election challenge to do the right thing.

Again, I ask … ARE YOU WITH JUNIOR?

Then go to his website and sign up!