It seems that the “I only speak to real Americans” quitter Palin may in fact be running for President in ’12. She’s come out with a list of 20 targets – D house members who
– voted for HCR
– represent districts won by McCain in ’08.
The full list and propaganda are available on her Facebook page, ref http://www.facebook.com/notes/…
It seems like this could also be used to motivate the base to support these sometimes blue dog vulnerable Ds, as they supported HCR.
As Richard Nixon showed in the ’66 election, one path to the R nomination is based on campaigning for others in their party.
But such an effort would help Palin only if perhaps a majority of targeted incumbents are defeated. By definition, Ds in districts that McCain won in ’08 are in a more difficult position, but I think at least a few are entrenched.
Of these 20, 3 are retiring. (Vic Snyder AR-02, Brad Ellsworth IN-08, Bart Gordon TN-06). While we’ve got a shot of holding IN-08, it’s possible Rs will carry all 3. So Palin would need 8 of the remaining 17 to say she “won a majority of targets” and declare victory.
Just comparing the remaining names to one set of projections, (Sabato, ref http://www.centerforpolitics.o… (* highlights members of the blue dog caucus)
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1 – tossup
* Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5 – lean D
* Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8 – lean D
* John Salazar, CO-3 – lean D
* Betsy Markey, CO-4 – tossup
* Allen Boyd, FL-2 – likely D
Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24 – tossup
* Baron P. Hill, IN-9 – tossup
* Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL – tossup
* Charlie Wilson, OH-6 – not on board (assume solid D)
John Boccieri, OH-16 – lean D
* Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3 – lean D
* Christopher Carney, PA-10 – lean D
John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 – lean D
Tom Perriello, VA-5 – tossup
Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1 – likely D
Nick J. Rahall, WV-3 – not on board (assume solid D)
Of course, Sabato’s predictions are an arbitrary measure. I disagree with some of Sabato’s predictions. But assuming Palin has to win 8 of the remaining 17, she’d have to help Rs carry all 6 of the tossups, plus 2 of the 7 “lean Ds”.
Again, while over half of these targeted Ds are “blue dogs,” they all voted for HCR.