It seems that the “I only speak to real Americans” quitter Palin may in fact be running for President in ’12. She’s come out with a list of 20 targets – D house members who
– voted for HCR
– represent districts won by McCain in ’08.
The full list and propaganda are available on her Facebook page, ref http://www.facebook.com/notes/…
It seems like this could also be used to motivate the base to support these sometimes blue dog vulnerable Ds, as they supported HCR.
As Richard Nixon showed in the ’66 election, one path to the R nomination is based on campaigning for others in their party.
But such an effort would help Palin only if perhaps a majority of targeted incumbents are defeated. By definition, Ds in districts that McCain won in ’08 are in a more difficult position, but I think at least a few are entrenched.
Of these 20, 3 are retiring. (Vic Snyder AR-02, Brad Ellsworth IN-08, Bart Gordon TN-06). While we’ve got a shot of holding IN-08, it’s possible Rs will carry all 3. So Palin would need 8 of the remaining 17 to say she “won a majority of targets” and declare victory.
Just comparing the remaining names to one set of projections, (Sabato, ref http://www.centerforpolitics.o… (* highlights members of the blue dog caucus)
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1 – tossup
* Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5 – lean D
* Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8 – lean D
* John Salazar, CO-3 – lean D
* Betsy Markey, CO-4 – tossup
* Allen Boyd, FL-2 – likely D
Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24 – tossup
* Baron P. Hill, IN-9 – tossup
* Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL – tossup
* Charlie Wilson, OH-6 – not on board (assume solid D)
John Boccieri, OH-16 – lean D
* Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3 – lean D
* Christopher Carney, PA-10 – lean D
John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 – lean D
Tom Perriello, VA-5 – tossup
Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1 – likely D
Nick J. Rahall, WV-3 – not on board (assume solid D)
Of course, Sabato’s predictions are an arbitrary measure. I disagree with some of Sabato’s predictions. But assuming Palin has to win 8 of the remaining 17, she’d have to help Rs carry all 6 of the tossups, plus 2 of the 7 “lean Ds”.
Again, while over half of these targeted Ds are “blue dogs,” they all voted for HCR.
Here’s where I rate these seats as of baseline analysis:
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1 – likely D
Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5 – lean D
Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8 – likely D
John Salazar, CO-3 – likely D
Betsy Markey, CO-4 – tossup (projected rep pickup)
Allen Boyd, FL-2 – likely D
Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24 – lean D
Baron P. Hill, IN-9 – tossup
Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL – lean D
Charlie Wilson, OH-6 – solid D
John Boccieri, OH-16 – lean D
Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3 – likely D
Christopher Carney, PA-10 – lean D
John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 – likely D
Tom Perriello, VA-5 – tossup (projected rep pickup)
Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1 – lean D
Nick J. Rahall, WV-3 – solid D
A couple of things to point out. Since Palin has crafted the list via a very cut and dry criteria, it leaves out all the little nuances you see in local voting patterns. I don’t get the feeling that Rahall is in any danger in WV. Ditto for Wilson in OH, as his district is usually democratic but simply rejected Obama. Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Mitchell had to deal with a “McCain bounce” in Arizona this past election, so I think their danger is overstated as well.
Dahlkemper hasn’t drawn any serious opposition, neither has Boyd, and Spratt is a longstanding stalwart in a place where the local GOP is very unpopular. So it’s hard to see any of those three going down. The others on this list though could all be vulnerable. Obviously, Markey, Hill, and Perriello are in the most danger, as their districts are very conservative and the vote for HCR probably isn’t a popular one where they come from. Pomeroy is going to take some serious heat, and he’s got Hoeven leading the ticket, so I’d be wary of poll numbers on him. Carney and Boccieri are probably the 5th and 6th most vulnerable if I had to rank them.
Palin might as well host fundraisers for those Democrats as to “target” them, because the only effect of her “targeting” is to provide the Democratic incumbents a fundraising boon. I hope they’re all smart enough to use this immediately and as much as possible in every fundraising appeal.
Palin is despised by the left, disliked by the middle, and loved only by the right and not even all of them. She can’t move votes in these races, she can only move money into Democratic incumbents’ pockets.