Tag: Election Data Services

Though official census data won’t be published until the end of the year, Election Data Services has released an updated reapportionment projection, based on population estimates published by GIS software maker Esri. To see how things have changed over the years, I’m including EDS’s projections for 2007, 2008, and 2009. Note that in prior years, EDS used several different models for its forecasts, which is why you see two different possibilities for some states in certain years.

The biggest loser here is New York, which, after two straight years of facing only a single-seat loss, is back two a two-seat drop – though only by the narrowest of margins: the Empire State would get the 436th seat in Congress, if it existed. The other clear loser is Missouri, which swaps places with Minnesota – MN hangs on to its final seat, while Missouri now fails to. And Arizona, which last year could have gained either one or two seats, now looks set to pick up just one. Meanwhile, California (0), Florida (2) and Texas (4) all wind up with their higher projections.

EDS also provides a list of states on the bubble, which you can see below:

In addition to the states on the lists above, EDS also thinks that Nebraska and Rhode Island are also at risk of losing a seat when the final numbers come out in December.

UPDATE: In comments, Nico takes a look back at EDS’s projections for the prior decade and finds that, while good, they still missed a few things. So we are very likely to see some surprises.

The Census Bureau has released its annual population estimates, so that means the usual players are in the field with their reapportionment projections. First up is Election Data Services. (You can check out their prior studies as well: 2007 | 2008.)

EDS now offers six different projection models. The column headers indicate the range of time used to calculate each projection.

The biggest losers in this new batch of projections are, not too surprisingly, the sun-belt states of Arizona and Florida. Last year, Arizona was expected to gain two seats under every single projection model. Now, in a stark demonstration of how southern migration has slowed in the midst of the Great Recession, the three nearest-term projections all show it picking up just one seat. Meanwhile, Florida, which still looked to gain two seats according to longer-term projections in 2008, now grabs just one new seat under all models.

Other losers include Oregon, which was slated to grab a new district under four of five models last year – it’s off the list entirely this time. North Carolina was in a much more marginal situation in 2008 (gaining a seat under two of five models), and it too drops from the list. Texas shows a teeny bit of wobble, as the longest-term projection now shows it picking up three rather than four seats, but it seems like the odds still favor four. California, on the other hand, stabilizes some more, with four of six models (including all the nearer-term ones) indicating it won’t lose any seats (last time, only two of five did).

The biggest gainers? That would be Missouri, which isn’t on this list at all – and for the Show Me State, that’s a good thing. In 2008, all five models projected a one-seat loss, and in fact, in 2007, all three models did as well. Now EDS thinks Missouri won’t lose any seats. Meanwhile, Washington state is brand-new to the list, gaining a tenth district acoss the board.

Polidata also has an analysis out. They only do one projection, based on the most recent year’s numbers, which matches EDS’s 2008-2009 projection in all respects. They also offer a list of which states barely hang on to their final seats and which states are oh-so-close to nabbing one more:

EDS has a similar chart with “last six/next six” on the final page of their PDF, with different iterations for each of their models. The bottom line is that right now, Missouri looks very lucky and Minnesota looks very unlucky. But given the small numbers involved and the fact that we’re dealing with estimates rather than actuals counts, I would not be surprised at all if things changed by the time we get final numbers in from the 2010 Census.

P.S. Check out Dave’s diary for some more discussion of these new studies.

Election Data Services has updated its projections (PDF) for Congressional re-apportionment after the 2010 census, taking into account population changes over the past year. (You can find a summary of EDS’s 2007 findings here.) The news is good in particular for the state of New York.

This time, EDS offers five different models for projecting every state’s population two years hence. The column headers indicate the range of time used to come up with each projection.

As you can see, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the models. Only four states aren’t uniform across the board: California, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon. CA & OR apparently have seen a recent uptick in relative growth while FL and NC have experienced the opposite.

The bigger deal, though, are the changes compared to last year’s survey. The previous version of this study used three models rather than five, but all of them showed NY losing two seats. Now, all five EDS projections show NY losing just one seat. This might hardly seem like something to cheer about for a state which had 45 House seats just half a century ago, but I for one am glad.

So where does this seat probably come from? As it happens, it’s a state known for its sizable ex-New Yorker population. Three of the five current models (and all of them the shortest-term) show Florida dropping a seat while only one of three did in 2007. Meanwhile, Minnesota now looks pretty certain to lose a seat while South Carolina appears set to gain one.

Things could of course still change over the next two years. As EDS notes, the economic crisis has already reduced migration rates to their lowest level since the 1940s (when the government first started tracking this information). A worsening recession could cause even more people to stay put, changing these numbers yet again. We’ll just have to wait and see.

A company called Election Data Services has published a new study (PDF) of Congressional re-apportionment, based on newly-released Census data. EDS used three different models to project likely re-apportionment figures, which they explain as follows:

First, there is a “long-term” trend model that reflects the overall change that has occurred so far this decade; that is from 2000 to 2007, and projects it to 2010. Second, a “midterm” trend model uses the population change that has occurred from 2005 to 2007. Finally, a “short-term” trend model incorporates the change that has occurred in just the past year, from 2006 to 2007, and carries that rate of change forward to 2010.

The results:

State	Long-Term	Mid-Term	Short-Term
Arizona	2	2	2
California	0	-1	0
Florida	2	2	1
Georgia	1	1	1
Illinois	-1	-1	-1
Iowa	-1	-1	-1
Louisiana	-1	-1	-1
Massachusetts	-1	-1	-1
Michigan	-1	-1	-1
Minnesota	0	-1	-1
Missouri	-1	-1	-1
Nevada	1	1	1
New Jersey	-1	-1	-1
New York	-2	-2	-2
North Carolina	0	1	1
Ohio	-2	-2	-2
Oregon	1	1	1
Pennsylvania	-1	-1	-1
South Carolina	0	1	1
Texas	4	4	4
Utah	1	1	1

When it comes to matters of re-apportionment and re-districting, I know that Swing State readers don’t need any commentary from me about what this all might mean. So have at it!