Tag: LA-06

The latest Bayou Buzz:

According to the Secretary of State’s office, the Governor plans to set the election dates, at their request, for the Democratic and Republican Primaries, as well as the general, as follows: the 1st District race (Oct. 4th primary; November 4th general), the 2nd District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th runoff; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), the 4th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), and the 5th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th general).

So, in most cases, Louisiana’s congressional races will be decided on November 4th, with two big exceptions: LA-02 and LA-04, where it’s looking very likely that runoffs will need to be held on November 4th. The Buzz offers its take on that timeline’s impact on the Democratic primary to topple crumb-bum Rep. Bill Jefferson.

As for the 4th District race, where Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is offering Democrats a strong shot at picking up the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery, this move could end up working in Carmouche’s favor. Democrats have had a pretty good record of success in recent Louisiana runoffs (e.g. Mary Landrieu in 2002, Kathleen Blanco in 2003, and Charlie Melancon in 2004), and if Dems are successful at the presidential and congressional levels in November, the GOP base could end up being rather deflated a month later. Furthermore, you could expect the DCCC to bring its full resources to bear here, while it’s a good bet that the Republican candidate will be tapped out after a hard-fought three-way primary and runoff.

From Roll Call:

Louisiana will not hold its scheduled primaries Saturday because of the devastation and voter displacement caused by Hurricane Gustav earlier this week.

State election officials could decide as early as today when to reschedule the elections, and as of Wednesday there still was some hope of being able to hold the primaries on Sept. 13. Doing so would allow any required runoffs to take place on Oct. 4, the state’s currently scheduled runoff date.

Another possibility could be to hold all primaries on Oct. 4. That would push any required runoffs back to November and mean that some districts may not have a general election until December.

If Louisiana’s congressional elections are pushed back to December, that could be bad news for Democrats in LA-04, LA-06, and LA-07 — as a high African-American turnout inspired by Barack Obama is considered a key element of Dem chances here.

On the other hand, if Obama does win in November, the GOP’s hard-right base could be in such a state of depression and malaise that they might not be feeling pumped up about showing up for a December general election. (Shades of TX-23, anyone?)

The decision is up to Gov. Bobby Jindal.

September 6th is primary day in Louisiana, and midnight was the deadline for congressional candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. Once again, SSP rounds up the numbers, covering the period of 7/1 through 8/17:

As usual, all figures are in thousands. No reports have been filed yet for William Jefferson or Cedric Richmond, but we’ll update the chart once they’ve filed.

An impressive period for Democrat Don Cravins, who managed to outraise Boustany. Jim Harlan continues to amaze with his self-funded campaign in the R+19 LA-01, and Carmouche continues to lead the field in the fightin’ 4th.

Cazayoux has some work to do in order to replenish his war chest, but at the same time, he’s spending money at a fast clip in order to stay on the airwaves.

UPDATE: LOL.

Earlier this week, the DCCC announced that it was hitting back against a recent Freedom’s Crotch radio ad buy against Democrats in ten districts with ads of their own. The DCCC has just filed their independent expenditure reports for the buys, which we’ve rounded up below:

• ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick
• LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux
• MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer
• MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes
• NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter
• NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich
• NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa
• OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
• OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri
• PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

This just in: State Rep. Michael Jackson (D-Baton Rouge) has filed to run against Democrat Don Cazayoux as an independent.

For more thoughts on what this means for Cazayoux, see our discussion from yesterday.

In light of this development, SSP has shifted its rating of this race from “Leans Democratic” to Tossup.

Bad news. State Rep. Michael Jackson (D-Baton Rouge) is telling Roll Call that he’s “very likely” to run for Congress again after losing the special Democratic primary to Don Cazayoux — only this time, as an independent:

Jackson, the vice chairman of the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus, said he’s fully aware that some Republicans want him in the race and that Democratic leaders want him on the sidelines.

“Both sides have shown an interest in whether or not I’m in this race,” he said. “Republicans feel it might help their position and Democrats feel like it may hurt their position.”

However, Jackson said, “my goal would be to run to win and to maximize the opportunity and to maximize my chances. and it appears that the best way to do that right now is to do it as an Independent.”

Jackson, whose state legislative district is in Baton Rouge, said the main reason he’s filing as an Independent is because he’s concerned about the cost of running in a primary and general election. […]

“We’re just trying to utilize our resources in a way that makes sense,” Jackson said.

But he added that although he would be on the ballot as an Independent, he intends to preach a Democratic message during his campaign.

“It’s not that I’m disassociating myself [from] the Democrats … my banner will be an Independent-Democrat, I’ll stay connected to the philosophy that way.”

I’m not sure what Jackson is trying to accomplish. At “best” he will win enough support in Baton Rouge to split the Democratic vote and let GOP state Sen. Bill Cassidy defeat Cazayoux. It would be a terrible shame if that happened.

In Cazayoux’s corner, he will have incumbency, DCCC protection, and solid support from local Democrats (Jackson notwithstanding). But make no mistake: this would be an awfully hard race for Cazayoux to win, and it would put every political fiber in his body to the test.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic, but we will make an immediate race rating revision if Jackson enters this race as an independent.

Well, well. With the qualifying period for state and federal elections beginning today, the GOP has finally caught a break in Louisiana this year, as unpopular Republican Woody Jenkins is pulling out of the November election against recently-elected Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux:

“It’s a very critical time in America and very important that our party unifies,” Jenkins said. “It’s probably the only way we’re going to win.” […]

Jenkins said he felt as though he had the support to win the fall primary election. But the campaign would be a costly strain on either Republican candidate and would negatively effect their run in the general election.

“And I don’t want to take that chance,” Jenkins said. “Because of the district and the type of race this is, unity is at a premium. We just can’t afford any fighting among ourselves.”

Another retread loser, lobbyist and businesswoman Laurinda Calongne, also pulled out of the race late last month.

In their place, Republicans are running state Sen. Bill Cassidy, who, simply by virtue of actually holding an elected office, is a big step up from Jenkins or Calongne.

The biggest unanswered question for the time being remains the fate of Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson, who vowed to run as an independent in November after he lost his primary bid to Cazayoux in April. The filing deadline passes this Friday, so we’ll have an answer soon.

Will the GOP be able to mount a competent challenge to recently-elected Rep. Don Cazayoux?

That entirely depends on candidate recruitment, and Republicans have one new name in the mix. Bill Cassidy, a state senator and physician from Baton Rouge, told the Republican State Central Committee in Louisiana earlier today that he’s definitely in the race against Cazayoux.

Cassidy was first elected to the state senate in 2006, but on paper he would bring a couple of key advantages to the GOP in this race: 1) His base is in Baton Rouge, the district’s population center and the area that delivered this race for Cazayoux in May; and 2) he’s not Woody Jenkins.

However, a Cassidy nomination is not guaranteed. In the same Baton Rouge Advocate article, both special election loser Jenkins and primary loser/lobbyist Laurinda Calongne sound ready to make another kick at the can.

Interestingly, the article detects a hint of fear among the Republicans over Barack Obama’s voter registration efforts:

But Jenkins said Republicans have their work cut out because of Obama, who has raised $300 million in the current election cycle. “He’s doubled what been raised by John McCain and he’s only just begun,” Jenkins said.

Obama supporters have already started voter registration drives in the state, reportedly signing up 90,000 in four parishes alone, he said.

“We need to wake up … we don’t need any part-time Republicans. We need to recognize we are in the fight of our life,” Jenkins said. “Are we asleep on the beach waiting for the tsunami to hit?”

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Only weeks after the special election, the Republican field to take on freshly-minted Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux is still in flux. The Advocate reports that Chas Roemer (son of former Gov. Buddy Roemer) has taken his name out of consideration. In his place, it seems likely that perennial loser Woody Jenkins will take another kick at the can:

Jenkins said in a phone interview Tuesday Roemer’s decision to bow out is a factor in his own consideration to run. Jenkins said he wants to make sure there is a strong conservative candidate on the Republican ticket.

“I am close to making a decision, and that decision will probably be to run,” Jenkins said in an e-mail Tuesday.

It sounds like consultant/lobbyist Laurinda Calongne is gearing up for another bid, too:

Her campaign manager, Emily Tiller, said in an e-mail that they are receiving a tremendous amount of support and encouragement for her to run.

“Because she is a small business owner and a healthcare expert, people are saying she has the best chance of beating Don Cazayoux in November,” Tiller’s e-mail says. “We will be making an announcement very soon.”

Both Jenkins and Calongne are very much B-list candidates for the GOP here, but with the prospect of an independent run by Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson still in the air, even a B-list candidate has a shot here for Team Red.

IL-14: R+05

LA-06: R+07

MS-01: R+10

What’s next?  What R+12 district is about to be flipped?