Tag: LA-06

The confetti from last night’s LA-6 election has not even been swept away and excuses for the Republican’s most recent humiliation are already rolling out.  This morning, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is trotting out the GOP’s argument for why they lost this seat and the IL-14, which they lost in March.

Given the competing national and local factors, both parties have a credible argument to make about today’s vote. Democrats will argue that Cazayoux’s victory in a Republican-leaning seat is yet one more sign that the Republican party’s brand is badly damaged and that independent voters are disenchanted with the GOP. Republicans will counter that both Jenkins and Jim Oberweis, the dairy magnate who carried their flag in the Illinois special election, were poor candidates whose losses should not be interpreted as a sign of anything other than that bad candidates often are defeated.

The tie breaker in this argument will come in ten days time when voters in Mississippi’s 1st district head to the polls in another special election — this one to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R). The northern Mississippi seat leans heavily to Republicans — Bush won it with 62 percent in 2004 and 59 percent in 2000 — and both parties have fielded credible candidates. Should Republicans lose in Mississippi, the panic button will officially be pushed among party strategists.

For tonight, the only clear winner is Cazayoux who comes to Congress and immediately becomes the favorite to win a full term in November. House Democrats also have to feel very good tonight, having grown their majority by two seats since re-taking control of the chamber in November 2006.

Tie breaker? There is no tie, we won the first two contested House races of 2008. How many more times do we have to win? The Republicans won for decades with morons like Jim Oberweiss and Woody Jenkins. Look at Jim Bunning and Tom Coburn in the Senate (and may more than I care to list). And how “credible” is Greg Davis when we all know he took awards from the neo-confederate CCC? Yes, Cazayoux is the big winner. It was his name on the ballot, but the victory was a team effort from the national Democrats to the netroots to local activists. This win is a DEMOCRATIC win. But before I wind this diary up, I want to leave you with last night’s press release from the NRCC.

“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”

Uhhh guys, who won?

Because it sure feels that way to me:

“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”

Talk about lowering the bar.  Suddenly Democrats should be on the defensive for winning Republican-held R+6.5 open seats in the South?

Hang in there, Tom Cole and friends.  I know this must’ve been a rough night for you.

512 of 512 Precincts Reporting.

Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Don Cazayoux	(D)	49,702	49.20%
Woody Jenkins	(R)	46,741	46.27%
Ashley Casey	(I)	3,718	3.68%

RESULTS: LA SoS | Baton Rouge Advocate | NOLA.com

11:19PM: The last three precincts are in.  The final result is Cazayoux 49.20%, Jenkins 46.27%.  What a ride!

10:55PM (David): Wow. What a rollercoaster.  The lesson here, obviously, is that if you don’t know exactly which precincts have reported, projecting things out in a tight race is a very inexact game. Jeffmd seemed to have a good read on those remaining EBR precincts, but ultimately, what matters most is that Don Cazayoux pulled off an extremely impressive win here. Nice work indeed!

10:50PM: CAZAYOUX WINS!!

10:48PM: CAZAYOUX TAKES THE LEAD!

10:47PM: I guess the Louisiana SoS has gone for a smoke break.  Hang in there.

10:31PM: The final Livingston precinct is now in.  It’s nothing but EBR from now on in.  Hang on…

10:27PM: Damn, Jenkins has pulled ahead in EBR again.

10:24PM (David): The envelope is looking better. Please don’t get too excited, but if all of the outstanding precincts perform the same way those already counted have (on a parish-by-parish basis), then Cazayoux would come away with a very narrow win. Given how drastically EBR has shifted tonight, I wouldn’t bank on anything, though.

10:22PM: EBR is continuing to come in for Cazayoux.  Come on, Han old buddy.  Don’t let me down!

10:15PM: Cazayoux is pulling ahead in EBR now… it’s looking much closer.

10:06PM (David): My back-of-the-envelope spreadsheet suggests that Cazayoux would have to run 17 points ahead of where he’s been all night in the outstanding vote to be able to come back for the narrowest of wins. Not good.

10:01PM: This is not looking great — Cazayoux is getting smacked in East Baton Rouge so far.

9:52PM: Keep in mind that with 16 of 21 precincts reporting in West Baton Rouge, Cazayoux is up big — 1771 to 741.

9:49PM: Woody is starting this with a big lead (55%-41%) based in part on the strong returns from the very Republican Livingston Parish.  We have a ways to go yet.

9:37PM: As expected, Livingston is coming in strongly for Jenkins.  Feliciana looks tight.

9:18PM Eastern: The first results are trickling in — likely absentees.  51% Woody, 46% Cazayoux.

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Polls are now closed in Louisiana.  We’ll be tracking the results as them come in above.

Parish	Calongne	Jenkins	Total GOP	Cazayoux	Jackson	Total Dem
Ascension	637	893	1,530	936	180	1,116
East Baton Rouge	6,493	9,981	16,474	10,712	11,713	22,425
East Feliciana	211	575	786	720	781	1,501
Iberville	111	151	262	709	432	1,141
Livingston	1,252	2,706	3,958	2,950	342	3,292
Pointe Coupee	215	245	460	1,821	64	1,885
St. Helena	61	162	223	300	505	805
West Baton Rouge	205	258	463	1,255	591	1,846
West Feliciana	142	208	350	403	460	863

These are the turnout results from the April 5th primary runoff in Louisiana’s 6th District, where 59% of all votes cast were for Democrats. Now, tonight’s margin likely won’t be nearly as favorable for Democrats, but the numbers provide us some clues as to what to expect.

Ascension and Livingston parishes are the GOP strongholds here. Iberville, St. Helena, and Pointe Coupee (where Cazayoux’s home is located) are strong Democratic parishes in local and federal elections and Cazayoux should perform well here tonight. East and West Feliciana are historically Democratic, but have trended GOP in federal elections in recent years. Between the runoff performance and Cazayoux’s small town profile, I feel optimistic about the Democratic chances in Feliciana tonight.

Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody’s hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that’s not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he’ll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it’s still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.

We’ll find out after 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.

Polls close in Louisiana at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.  We’ll be liveblogging the returns as they come in, but until then, feel free to use this thread to post your predictions.  (Remember, three independent candidates will be on the ballot: Ashley Casey, Peter Aranyosi, and Randall Hayes.)

Voters in the redder-than-red LA-01 will also head to the polls today to pick a replacement.  Feel free to post your predictions for that one in the comments, too.

The DCCC just posted another round of big money moves in Louisiana tonight.  Here’s the rundown:

• $146,000 on media buys against Woody Jenkins
• $47,000 on a media buy in support of Don Cazayoux.
• $6000 on phonebanks.
• $7800 on direct mail against independent candidate Ashley Casey.
• $4500 on direct mail in support of Don Cazayoux.
• $52,600 on direct mail against Woody Jenkins.
• $4,100 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.

The new expenditures tally up to $267,242, bringing the DCCC’s total tab in this district to a whopping $1,185,396.

Special election: 5/3.  (SSP will be liveblogging the results on Saturday evening.  Be sure to check back with us.)

UPDATE: Additionally, SEIU COPE just posted a $150K media buy in support of Cazayoux.

May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

• LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

  We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

• IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
• IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
• NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

  Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

• NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
• NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
• NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

• MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
• NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
• NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

• KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
• KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
• OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
• OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

  On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.

From a new SurveyUSA poll obtained by Roll Call (likely special election voters, 4/27-29):

Don Cazayoux (D): 50

Woody Jenkins (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Those are some very encouraging numbers, considering that voters are heading to the polls to decide this race on Saturday.  But here’s the really amazing thing:

Despite enduring two weeks of constant attacks on the air from Republicans and independent conservative groups, Cazayoux had a net favorability rating of plus-15 (43 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable and 28 percent neutral or unfamiliar), according to the poll.

Jenkins, who came into the race with much higher name identification but who was known as a controversial figure, had a minus-13 favorability rating (36 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral or unfamiliar).

So let’s get this straight: despite $436K spent by the NRCC, $100K by the Club For Growth, $500K by Freedom’s Watch, and another $150K or so by Leonard Grisby on an effort to re-brand Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and lover of Barack Obama, Cazayoux still has higher favorability ratings than Woody Jenkins.  Remarkable.

Special election: 5/3.

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

LA-06: $115,000 on ad buys against Don Cazayoux and $9000 on a media production.

MS-01: $12,000 on a poll and $10,000 on direct mail against Travis Childers.

The DCCC:

LA-06: $97,000 on ad buys against Woody Jenkins; $31,000 on an ad buy in support of Don Cazayoux; $33,000 on direct mail against Woody Jenkins; $3500 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.

The DCCC has now spent $912,000 on LA-06 to the NRCC’s $436,000.  Bear in mind, though, that the NRCC has had a lot of help from the likes of the Club For Growth and Freedom’s Watch in pounding Cazayoux.  

The NRCC’s total tab in MS-01 is nearing $600K, while the DCCC has spent just over $400K in Mississippi.

On another note, you guys continue to amaze me.  Today, we smashed through our daily goal of $200 and 40 total donors for Travis Childers.  In fact, we raised $378 today from 43 total donors.  We’re not far off from our ultimate goal: $2300 for Childers.  Let’s see if we can hit the $2000 mark by the end of tomorrow on the Childers bat.

Let’s do this thing!