Tag: LA-04

September 6th is primary day in Louisiana, and midnight was the deadline for congressional candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. Once again, SSP rounds up the numbers, covering the period of 7/1 through 8/17:

As usual, all figures are in thousands. No reports have been filed yet for William Jefferson or Cedric Richmond, but we’ll update the chart once they’ve filed.

An impressive period for Democrat Don Cravins, who managed to outraise Boustany. Jim Harlan continues to amaze with his self-funded campaign in the R+19 LA-01, and Carmouche continues to lead the field in the fightin’ 4th.

Cazayoux has some work to do in order to replenish his war chest, but at the same time, he’s spending money at a fast clip in order to stay on the airwaves.

UPDATE: LOL.

Internal polling for Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche shows that he has a big advantage over his three challengers in the Shreveport-based, R+7 open seat. How big an advantage? Well, 13 to 19 points… but the release of the poll doesn’t give specific percentages of votes or tell which margin applies to which GOP challenger. Here’s what we know:

When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points.  Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.

The poll gives Carmouche very high name recognition (60%) and a 4-to-1 favorable ratio. The same poll also goes into some more detail about the Republican primary, which has three credible candidates (physician John Fleming, trucking company executive Chris Gorman, and former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson).

Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (7/16-21, likely voters):

John Fleming (R): 27

Chris Gorman (R): 20

Jeff Thompson (R): 14

(MoE: ±4%)

Result-wise, this matches Fleming’s own polling (although Fleming gives himself a much bigger margin of victory):

Southern Media & Opinion Research for John Fleming (7/25-27, likely voters):

John Fleming (R): 43

Chris Gorman (R): 17

Jeff Thompson (R): 15

(MoE: ±5%)

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish.

As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:

LA-01

Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Jim Harlan	$595,399.05	$41,020.99	$525,000	$554,378.06

No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn’t do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers

LA-02

There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Troy “C” Carter	$51,112	$34,120.01	$87,906.27	-$1,442.37

Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I’ve corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it’ll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you’ll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Cedric Richmond	$111,800	$17,895.39	$100,000	$193,904.61

The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.

LA-03

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Charlie Melancon	$237,858.13	$52,243.17	$0.00	$1,042,583.14

Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots’ Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.

LA-04

There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district – Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis “Doc” Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Willie Banks	$3,267	$8,788.31	$10,000	$11,545.16

The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He’s having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he’s running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.

Netroots Nation will be happening in just a few short days, and four members of the SSP crew will be there: Publisher DavidNYC, Southern Bureau Chief Trent Thompson, tech guru Ben, and myself. On Thursday morning, we’ll be chilling at the state level blogger caucus. If you’re at the convention, please drop by and say hello!

On another note, the filing deadline for federal candidates in Louisiana passed at 5pm today, and it looks like we’ve come up empty-handed in the 5th CD, where the DCCC was trying up until the wire to score a candidate to take on Rodney Alexander. Well, you can’t win ’em all.

And while state Rep. Michael Jackson moonwalked himself into the 6th CD race as an independent, rumored spoiler candidate Lydia Jackson, a Democratic state senator from Shreveport, decided not to file for the open seat race in the 4th CD — as an independent or otherwise.

While we took some bad news that puts us on the defensive in the LA-06, we have some good news today that keeps us on offense in the LA-04. A list of qualifying candidates compliled by ryan at Daily Kingfish indicates that State Senator Lydia Jackson did not file to rund for Congress in the LA-04 as a Democrat or Independent.

LA-04

Willie Banks, Democrat

Paul Carmouche, Democrat

Artis “Doc” Cash, Democrat

John Milkovich, Democrat

John Fleming, Republican

Chris Gorman, Republican

Jeff Thompson, Republican

Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, No Party

Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., Other

So we’ll see one Democrat and one GOPer on the November ballot in the 4th along with Mr. Kelley and Mr. Bowen.

Ms. Jackson is apparently the team player that Mr. Jackson is not. Her decision keeps Paul Carmouche in the driver’s seat for the Democratic nomination and and will allow him to focus his firepower against the Republicans. It may also keep some pressure off Don Cazayoux as he tries to defend his seat.

It may have taken a few months for it to shake out, but it looks like Louisiana Democrats finally have their candidate in the open seat race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery:

Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche formally announced on Wednesday that he will be a candidate for Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District seat this fall.

While this R+6.5 PVI open seat may not be at the top of the GOP’s list of worries this November, Carmouche’s candidacy will bring a real fight to the Republicans.  So sayeth CQ:

Carmouche’s decision contributed to CQ Politics’ change of its rating on the 4th District race to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races, from Safe Republican, a designation applied to contests that the GOP appears certain to win.

Carmouche is the longtime district attorney in Caddo Parish, which includes Shreveport, the population center for the 4th District and the third most-populous city in Louisiana. […]

Carmouche is not seeking re-election this year as district attorney, an office he has held since 1979. Democratic officials cite his long background in law enforcement and his conservative views on social issues, including his opposition to abortion and gun control measures, as among the reasons they think he will be able to overcome the district’s tilt toward the Republicans in presidential election years.

Not exactly the next John Yarmuth, but I’ll take what I can get in a district this red — as long as it gives the GOP some more heartburn.  The results from the May 3rd special election to fill Richard Baker’s seat in LA-06 (also R+6.5) could prove to be something of a bellwether here.

• LA-04: Former Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower (D) is taking a hard look at the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery:

  Hightower said he is “trying to look at the lay of the land” before making a decision.

  One thing that may be in his favor, he said, is that Democratic candidates have an advantage in 2008 because Congress is under Democratic control.

  “Part of the reason McCrery is getting out is that he was on the down side. But I would be on the up side,” Hightower said.

  A Hightower candidacy would force Republicans to sweat a little in this R+6.5 district.  Could they afford to play defense in this district and in LA-06, where state Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) will challenge what is likely going to turn into an open seat?

• AZ-08: Should Democrats start worrying about the seat of frosh Rep. Gabby Giffords?  A Summit Group poll conducted 12/3-4 for AZ state Senate President Tim Bee (R) shows Giffords under 40%:
  

  Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 36%
  
  Tim Bee (R): 30%
  
  (MoE: 5%)

  Bee has yet to make his candidacy official (he’s still in the “exploratory phase”), but with results like these, you can bet that he’ll be entering the race in the near future.

• IN-07: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has set a date for the special election to replace the late Rep. Julia Carson: March 11.  Democrats will caucus this Saturday to choose the nominee for the special election, and a contested primary will happen in May to determine the November nominee.  While Carson’s grandson, Indianapolis city councilor Andre Carson, is looking like the front runner for the caucus nomination, some are speculating that we could see a different cast of characters contest the May primary.




• NM-03: NM FBIHOP brings the news that Carol Miller, the same spoiler who caused Republicans to win a 1997 special election for the seat now held by Tom Udall, is running again.  However, I haven’t been able to find this story in other media yet. UPDATE: Link to sub. only ABQ Journal story.




• IL-14: The fists are flying in the GOP primary to replace Dennis Hastert.




• CT-05: Chris Murphy tells it like it is: “I think it’s hard to justify that Senator Lieberman is a member of the Democratic Party any longer.”

  The early makings of a 2012 Senate campaign, perhaps?  We can only hope…

And yet another Republican crumb-bum has decided to give it up.  Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA) has scheduled a press conference tonight with local media to announce his retirement.  GOP sources are telling The Politico that McCrery will retire at the end of the 110th Congress, as opposed to pulling a Trent Lott.  By my count, that brings us to 18 GOP retirements in the House so far.

McCrery’s Shreveport-based seat is fairly red at the federal level, having supported Bush by 12 and 19-point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  Still, it’s not that much more Republican than Democrat Charlie Melancon’s district, which supported Bush by a 17-point spread in ’04.

DailyKos diarist FenwaySteve adds some local color:

This announcement should open up a horse race for his replacement.  The most likely Republican successor is Shreveport attorney, former mayoral candidate (’06), and McCrery’s attorney Jerry Jones.  If he gets in, which I’m sure he will, I doubt any other viable Repubs will join him.

On the D side, it’s really anyone’s guess.  I have heard rumors of a handful of current and former state representatives, as well as former two-term Shreveport mayor Keith Hightower, as possible candidates.  And Patti Cox, local party organizer and environmental consultant who ran in ’06, is planning to run again.

This is a district that could very easily return to Democratic hands.  It leans Republican (+7) and went strongly in favor of Bush in the last two races (59% in ’04).  But the contentious Shreveport mayoral race in 2006 went to the African-American Democrat Cedric Glover by a wider-than-expected margin in a contest that went down to the wire and split the electorate largely along racial lines.  If that was any prediction, turnout could be the deciding factor in this district.

Definitely a race to keep a close eye on as the local parties scramble to find candidates here.

UPDATE: The Associated Press confirms it.  Sounds like being in the minority was too much of a bummer for him.

The DCCC has posted this article from Roll Call entitled “Louisiana Lightning.”  I recommend everyone read it in its entirety, as the article discusses Republican and Democratic strategy for 2007 and 2008.  Here are some of the more interesting passages from the article:

Democratic officials believe that demographic changes in one of the South’s few remaining competitive states – for instance, many former New Orleans residents now live in Baton Rouge and Shreveport – could put Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat within their reach.
“Baker is definitely on our radar screen,” DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. “We believe whether Baker runs for governor, Senate or seeks re-election, we believe he’s vulnerable.”
Baker’s 6th district is based in Baton Rouge, which swelled from 225,000 residents before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005 to somewhere between 275,000 and 325,000 today, according to local officials.

The DCCC also is casting a glance at Rep. Jim McCrery (R) in the 4th district.Neither district seems like particularly fertile ground for Democrats on paper – President Bush carried both districts with 59 percent of the 2004 presidential vote – but a lot has changed since then.
Shreveport just elected a black Democratic mayor in November, Democrats are quick to note.
McCrery represents a big chunk of the Pelican State’s western side in a district that extends from Northern Shreveport almost to Lake Charles.

Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.), who lost a 2004 bid for Senate, said he thinks Democrats can not only rebound but can even make gains in his home state.
“The DCCC has hit the ground running,” John said. “I was called [for advice] five weeks after the [midterm] election by the DCCC recruitment committee.”
John said committee officials are “just trying to get a real lay of the land … just trying to get a real macro-picture with what they’re dealing with.”
He also said that Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) always has to consider himself a target given that he switched parties just before the state’s filing deadline in 2004.

Who should we recruit for LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07?  Which elected officials in Louisiana do you believe have the capacity to unseat one of these incumbents?  Which prominent people in Louisiana do you believe should run?  I have a few in mind, and I will post them in the comments.  I look forward to everyone else’s suggestions.