From a New York 1 poll:
In the General Election, New York remains a blue state with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. Hillary beats Rudy Giuliani by 14 points and John McCain by 16 points. Barack Obama beats Rudy Giuliani statewide by 6 points and defeats John McCain by 15 points.
Obama beating Giuliani is the most interesting thing to me. This deflates the notion that Rudy might carry New York State, especially when you consider that Hillary beats Obama 49-17 in a primary matchup. In other words, a Dem with low support among Dems (Obama) can still beat Saint Rudy.
There’s also this bit:
Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considered unlikely to enter the presidential race if the other formidable New Yorkers are the eventual nominees of their parties, and at 14% he hardly makes a dent in the support of either Hillary Clinton (46%) or Rudy Giuliani (32%) in a 3-way contest, and takes equally from both.
It’s that last line which jumps out at me, seeing as some recent polls have been touted showing Bloomberg pulling almost entirely from the GOP. However, there may be a local effect here, given that many NYC Democrats have gotten accustomed to pulling the lever for Bloomberg. Dems elsewhere might not be so inclined.
METHODOLOGYThis poll was conducted from April 4 through April 7, 2007, among 1,013 New York State registered voters, including 496 registered Democratic voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%); 274 registered Republicans (with a margin of error of +/-6%) and 500 New York City registered voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%).