Tag: Tom Udall

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Another SurveyUSA poll was released, and this time, they included primaries in their polling.  Not only that, they polled an amazing 1700+ people, resulting in some ridiculously-low MOEs (below three percent).  So these are some pretty accurate polls.  enough jibber-jabber, let’s get straight to the numbers.

In the Republican primary, Heather Wilson is surprisingly strong and is trouncing Steve Pearce, 56-37.  Yes, you read that correctly, Wilson is already twenty points ahead of her Southern NM counterpart, with only four percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Tom Udall is similarly ahead of Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, by a 62-32 margin.  This is even larger than the internal poll released by Udall, which showed Udall ahead of Chavez by a 50-30. Since then, Santa Fe small businessman and green-developer Don Wiviott has dropped out of the Senate race to pursue Udalls now-open House seat.

In the general, Udall is still looking strong, though the gap has begun to close a bit between Udall and his Republican opponents. Chavez, however, continues to bounce around the polls.

Trendlines from polls taken [10/27-10/30] and (10/05-10/08).

Pearce (R) 40% [–] (37)
Udall (D) 54%  [–] (55)
Undecided 5% [–]

Pearce (R) 52% [43] (54) 
Chavez (D) 42% [48] (35)
Undecided 7% [9]  (9)

Wilson (R) 41% [–] (38)
Udall (D) 56%  [–] (56)
Undecided 3% [–]

Wilson (R) 47% [44] (48) 
Chavez (D) 46% [48] (44)
Undecided 7% [8] (8)

Where Udall really distinguishes himself is among the self-described moderates and liberals.

Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals.  Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals.  This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.

The same can be seen against Heather Wilson.  Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals. 

Similar numbers can be seen among party identification, with Udall doing better among both Democrats and Independents than Chavez.  And, it goes without saying, Udall does better than either Wilson or Pearce in these categories as well.  Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.

The polls were taken 11/16/07 through 11/18/07 by SurveyUSA.

There is much talk about the New Mexico Senate race, about how this is one of the top pick-up opportunities for us in 2008, but considering this, there has been a surprising lack of analysis of the primary fields (this is especially true of the Republican field). It is very important to take a good look at both fields and look at what is each one's strengths, weaknesses, and get a good insight into what the general election might look like depending on who is running.

The Democrats 

Most of us are already pretty much aware of how the Democrats stack up with each other, and pretty much understand where their primary will go, but for the hell of it, let's look at it again: 

Tom Udall – Udall is generally seen at the frontrunner for both the Democratic primary and the General election. In the primary Udall's strengths include strong support from both the national and state party, strong enthusiasm from the grassroots, electability, a solid base of support from the Democratic stronghold in the third district and state-wide recognition from being attorney general. His possible weaknesses include his lack of running for a competitive race leaves him feeling complaciant.

 Martin Chavez: Chavez is the underdog, decidedly in the primary and less obviously, in the general election. His main strengths in the primary include his ability to claim that he is an “outsider” candidate, that he has run in a competitive city and managed to win, thus giving him some experience in competitive elections. His weaknesses are that his support among the Democratic base is both shallow and narrow, local Democrats don't like him; he already lost a statewide election to a relatively unpopular governor, his fundraising base is limited (more so with Richardson's state organization likely to work against Chavez); and the only possible avenue to grant him victory is to smear Udall which will further harm his campaign. Chavez is the “Republican-lite” candidate.

 Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win the primary, because he has a much wider and deeper base of support among Democrats than Chavez and has a much better fundraising advantage, and polls and money tend to move each other.

 

 The Republicans

This is the race which is not quite as clear-cut as the Democrats. There have been many people who seem to think Steve Pearce is favored to win the nomination, but just how accurate is that? Let's look into it:

 Steve Pearce: Well, like I mentioned above, Pearce seems to be considered the favorite to win the Republican primary. Pearce's major strengths in the primary include a stronger support base than Wilson with state Republicans (representing what we refer to as “Little Texas”). His weaknesses are that he has not really fought a competitive election, and while his base is good, he doesn't show the ability to make gains nor does he seem to have a very strong fundraising base. In addition to this, he doesn't appear to be electable (state Democrats agree that they would have no problem beating Pearce in November), this can very easily be used against him.

Heather Wilson: Wilson is seen as being the underdog for the nomination, yet seen as a stronger candidate in the general election (at least compared to Pearce). Her strengths in the primary include a better campaign organization and experience in winning despite being the underdog (or simply put, she's a better candidate than Pearce). Her weaknesses include a much weaker level of base support among Republican grassroots (she doesn't inspire all that much enthusiasm among the Conservative base). Wilson is essentially “Democrat-lite”

I understand why people think that Pearce is the front-runner for the nomination, but honestly, Wilson's in a much better position to win it than people . She's got a lot of experience in fighting uphill battles, and Pearce, while having a stronger support base among Republicans, is going to have a hard time expanding on it. With Udall likely to seize the Democratic nomination, Republicans are probably more open to elect their “warrior”, so to speak. I don't think I can call anyone the true “favorite” here, but my gut tells me that Wilson is going to win the nomination.

 

 General Match-ups

 Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce: This is basically the clash of the bases, and Udall is heavily favored to win this fight. Plainly put, they both faced the same type of challengers in 2004 and 2006, throwaways, yet Udall took 69% and 75% respectively while Pearce only took 60% in both elections. Udall's support base is stronger, he is going to be better financed, and he starts off with a solid lead. Pearce doesn't have the campaigning skills nor the financial organization to match Udall, period.

 Martin Chavez vs. Steve Pearce: This is Republican-lite vs. Republican, with Pearce slightly favored to win. Yeah, I know that it's a strongly Democratic year and there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the general consensus among the liberal base is that Chavez would be the “lesser-of-two-evils” guy, thus weakening his base of support. Chavez's financial number would likely improve if he won the Democratic nomination, but he still would likely have less money than Pearce (of course the DSCC would be more than able to make up the difference and then some). If you can't count on your base to vote for you, it makes it difficult to win. Chavez might be able to make up the difference with moderates and independents, but his loss in 1998 against then-Gov. Johnson, makes this argument seem less plausible.

 Tom Udall vs. Heather Wilson: This is the Democrat vs. Democrat-lite race, with Udall favored (though not nearly as heavily as the Udall vs. Pearce one). Basically Wilson suffers from base-skepticism (much like Chavez does). The difference between Wilson's predicament and Chavez's predicament is that she is a much better candidate than Chavez in that she can probably rally her base to vote against Tom Udall than Chavez would be able to to vote against Steve Pearce. Having said that, Udall, in addition to having a more solid support base than Wilson, will also enjoy a financial advantage, especially with the DSCC able to dump money into the race. The real danger that Udall will face is becoming too comfortable with the lead, Heather Wilson is dangerous in that she knows how to come back from behind and she knows how to run a solid campaign. Like I said before, Udall is favored to win this race, but Wilson is definitely a threat which Udall would have to take very seriously.

 Martin Chavez vs. Heather Wilson: The battle of the lites, with Wilson the favorite to win. Here's where neither base likes either candidate, but in this case, the Democratic base dislikes Chavez more than the Republican base dislikes Wilson. Wilson, whatever her flaws, at least had the brains to not declare support for Bingaman's re-election. Wilson will have a solid fundraising advantage over Chavez, a better campaign organization, and is an adept campaigner compared to Chavez. On top of that, the only way Chavez wins the nomination to fight Wilson will be to smear Tom Udall, which will leave a lot of bitterness towards Chavez among Democrats, thus making it even harder to secure the base. Simply put, Wilson will beat Chavez if it comes down to it.

(From the diaries. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP. – promoted by James L.)

Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez has been touting his roots to New Mexico.  Just take a look at his bio on his campaign site:

A native son of New Mexico, Martin Chávez was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His family’s roots in New Mexico have been traced to the 1500s.

Many New Mexicans who have had family in the state for generations are proud of their “native roots”.  These are the people who can name their family back to the Spanish settlers.  But the Albuquerque Tribune asked an interesting question: What role will being the only “native son” play in the Senate election?

After doing a bit of research, probably not much.

“When given a choice, New Mexicans usually prefer a native son.”
-Mark Fleisher, Martin Chavez Campaign Manager

It sounds great.  Sounds completely plausible; after all, even Stephen Colbert planned on running for President (but only in South Carolina) as a “favorite son.”

But in New Mexico, where you were born or grew up does not seem to make much of a difference in whether or not New Mexicans will vote for you.  After all, as the Tribune article wrote:

[A]ll three of the other leading contenders for the Senate – Reps. Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat, Heather Wilson, an Albuquerque Republican, and Steve Pearce, a Hobbs Republican – were born outside New Mexico.

They are all Representatives with multiple elections under their belt — and have defeated “native sons” along the way.

Most recently, Heather Wilson defeated Patricia Madrid in the 2006 election by less than a thousand votes.  While Madrid was born in Las Cruces, NM, Wilson only moved to Albuquerque in 1991. 

In the Second District, Steve Pearce defeated native son Gary King (Stanley, NM) in 2004.  And King even has the pedigree of a father (three-time governor Bruce King) who was also born in New Mexico.  Pearce did, however, move to Hobbs at the age of two.

Udall has easily defeated all comers in the Third Congressional District in recent years, but his closest call came against then-incumbent Bill Redmond; a Chicago native.  Before Redmond, the seat was held by now Gov. Bill Richardson.

Richardson was born in Pasadena, CA, and did not move to Santa Fe, NM until 1978.  He ran for Congress against longtime incumbent Manuel Lujan in 1980 and lost.  He succeeded in 1982.  Richardson defeated John Sanchez (55-39) in 2002; Sanchez was a native of Albuquerque.  He then easily defeated Santa Fe-born John Dendahl in 2006, with a record margin.

The last time Chavez ran for statewide office, for governor in 1998, he lost to Gary Johnson.  Johnson was born in South Dakota.  I could not find, however, when exactly Johnson moved to New Mexico.

While Chavez will continue to tout his nativeness to the state, in the grand scheme of things… it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of a difference.

With Tom Udall entering the race for the open Senate seat of the retiring Pete Domenici, there is yet another open House seat in New Mexico.  And Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott is going to switch his campaign over from the Senate race to the race for the now-open Third Congressional District seat.

Democracy for New Mexico first reported on the change, saying, “Don intends to seriously explore running for Congress in NM-03.”  Later yesterday, Heath Haussamen got a quote from Wiviott saying he would officially change over to the House race.

Read what he had to say under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

Wiviott loaned himself $400,000 and raised an additional $137,189, so he will enter the House race with a significant amount of campaign cash to play with.  It will be some time before we find out exactly who will oppose Wiviott.  We know, however, that state Rep. Peter Wirth will not seek the job.

As for the Democratic side of the Senate race, Jim Hannan said immediately following Domenici’s retirement a month ago he would drop out of the race if Udall stepped in.  But Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez and Mother Media editor Leland Lehrman both vowed to stay in the race for the US Senate seat.

Chavez’s campaign manager was confident in Chavez despite the Udall entry into the race.

Chavez’s campaign manager Mark Fleisher said today that the mayor believes he absolutely can beat Udall. Fleisher says the mayor is known around the state probably as well as Udall.

Udall and Chavez’ opponent Lehrman issued a press release explaining why he would not back off his run for Senate:

Although his votes on the environment and civil liberties make us all proud, his Washingtonian willingness to avoid tough issues means that he cannot be trusted with the leadership role a US Senator must take.

One example Lehrman gave was Udall’s vote to table a bill which would start impeachment hearings on Vice President Dick Cheney, a proposal set forth by Dennis Kucinich.

From the Associated Press:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall has decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, according to an aide.

“He’s definitely running,” Tom Nagle, Udall’s chief of staff told The Associated Press. […]

Udall initially had said he would stay in the House, where he is a member of the Appropriations Committee.

But he reconsidered after a “groundswell” of encouragement from New Mexicans, Nagle said.

“He thinks it’s too important not to run for the Senate,” Nagle said. “A lot of the good things we’ve been able to do (in the House) don’t go anywhere in the Senate.”

Nagle said there has been criticism that Udall is “too liberal” for the seat but he disputed that, saying “the rhetoric doesn’t match the reality of what the data show.”

He said internal campaign polling of likely voters conducted for Udall at the end of October showed the congressman with a considerable lead over either Wilson or Pearce, including among self-described moderates.

Sweet!

Update: Check out the details of an internal poll conducted for Udall by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (10/23-10/27, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 52%
Heather Wilson (R): 36%
Undecided: 12%

Tom Udall (D): 50%
Steve Pearce (R): 33%
Undecided: 17%

Martin Chávez (D): 47%
Heather Wilson (R): 43%
Undecided: 10%

Martin Chávez (D): 40%
Steve Pearce (R): 44%
Undecided: 16%
MoE: ±4.3%

The Chávez numbers seem to jive with the most recent polling from SUSA, and the 17 and 18 point leads that Udall enjoys over Pearce and Wilson match up well with the R2K polling for DailyKos.  In short: the poll is good.

Udall starts off in a position of strength in the primary, capturing a solid 50% of Democratic primary voters:

Tom Udall: 50%
Martin Chávez: 30%
Don Wiviott: 2%
Undecided: 17%
MoE: +/-4.6%

Mayor Marty’s ego is clearly stung, hence his unwarranted attacks on Udall’s voting record (the very same voting record that Chávez said he would emulate in a chat with local progressive bloggers).  This primary will be as ugly as he wants it to be, but his extremely high negatives — confirmed by both Udall’s and SUSA’s polling — indicate that this will be a likely loss for the Mayor.  A nickel’s worth of free advice to Martin: bow out gracefully.

Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a progressive candidate in the New Mexico Senate race that we can be proud of.  From Heath Haussamen:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has decided that he will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici next year.

Udall has called a number of Democratic Party insiders this week, including at least some county party chairs, to inform them of his decision, reliable sources confirmed. A Udall spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

The early polls show Udall dominating his potential GOP foes: fellow Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  It looks like we will not only have a solid progressive in the race, but we’ll have the most “electable” candidate of either party’s current field, as well.

This is a huge coup for the folks over at Draft Udall.  Give it up, folks!

Democracy For New Mexico has the scoop:

Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) spoke to New Mexico Democrats yesterday at the Party’s State Central Committee meeting at Smith-Brasher hall at CNM in Albuquerque. Bottom line: Udall will take another two weeks to listen to what the people and his family have to say, and weigh the pros and cons of giving up his secure U.S. House seat in Northern New Mexico before making a decision on entering the 2008 U.S. Senate in New Mexico. […]

Udall entered the hall to a standing ovation, loud chants of “Run, Tom, Run” and a multitude of waving signs urging the same. His speech touched on many of today’s hot button issues including Iraq, supporting our troops by getting them out of harm’s way, protecting civil liberties, holding the telecoms accountable for warrantless surveillance and providing expanded children’s health care. He emphasized that we need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Bush veto of legislation that the U.S. House has been passing  on matters like ending the war and regaining and preserving our Constitutional rights. It certainly sounded to me like he was leaning towards running to take back the seat held for so long by Pete Domenici, and helping to make that 60 vote majority a reality in the Senate.

Check the full account, with pictures and video, here.  There certainly is a deep hunger for a Tom Udall candidacy at the grassroots level, as the groundswell of support at the Central Committee meeting indicates.  Run, Tom, Run!

New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

(H/T: S2G)

It looks like Rep. Tom Udall is well beyond merely “reconsidering” his decision not to run for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici next year — local sources say that he’s actively assembling campaign team, according to Heath Haussamen:

A number of sources are confirming that U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. He’s now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run.

That’s sort of obvious, even without the confirmation from sources. Udall considered a Senate run once and decided against it. To reconsider now – and confirm it publicly – means he must be very serious.

With so many Democrats in New Mexico and Washington unsatisfied with the Democrats currently running for Senate, Udall will have no difficulty assembling the team and raising the money he needs for a run. That, coupled with his attempt to put a campaign together, means a Udall Senate run is likely.

Additionally, his press secretary is publicly acknowledging Udall’s decision to give the race another look:

Udall’s press secretary is now confirming that the congressman is reconsidering.

“New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he’s doing just that,” Marissa Padilla said.

Sounds like this is one “draft” movement that may yield results.  If Udall gets in, this race will be a great example of the type of “DSCC primary meddling” that we can all get behind.

UPDATE: Haussamen says that Lt. Gov. Denish has taken her name out of consideration:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has decided to forgo a 2008 U.S. Senate run and instead run for governor in 2010 as she originally planned.

A knowledgeable source confirmed on Thursday that Denish had decided against running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

If so, I’d take that as a good sign that Udall is really giving the race a serious look.  It’s no secret that Denish would prefer to be Governor, and would have been glad to pass the race off to someone else who could win it.  Perhaps Udall tipped her off that she no longer had to consider a bid.

The Albuquerque Journal reports that Rep. Tom Udall is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat: 

I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
…

A rapidly growing “Draft Udall” movement online, as well as major arm-twisting from the national Democratic elite (including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer), has convinced the congressman to reconsider.
…

Udall, a former two-term New Mexico attorney general, has proven he can win statewide and his polling numbers are among the best of any New Mexico politician. Any ambitious politician would take a hard look at the more prestigious Senate senate seat.

Incidentally, I also heard yesterday from separate – but equally reliable sources – that Gov. Bill Richardson called Udall yesterday to tell him he DOES NOT plan to run for the Senate and would stay out of Udall’s way if the congressman decides to jump in.

Tom Udall's entry into the race would certainly shake things up, greatly increasing our chances of picking up the Senate seat while opening all three of the state's House seats. To keep the momentum going, visit DraftUdall.com.

 

With the retirement of long-time incumbent Pete Domenici, we are looking at an opportunity we may not see again for a long time. As many who are reading this are likely aware, on the Republican side, Reps. Heather Wilson, the pseudo-moderate representing the first district (which, unfortunately, includes my hometown of Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce, the right-winger who represents the second district (including Las Cruces) will be running against each other in order to gain the Republican nomination for the Senate. Naturally, we need a candidate who can defeat Wilson and Pearce in a general election, but we also want to elect a solid progressive who will stand up for New Mexican citizens, not the corporations.

 

You have all probably already read about the various sites which are already working on drafting Congressman Tom Udall to run for the senate, and many of you are probably asking an important question: why is it so important, not only to support Rep. Udall in a run for senate, but to actively work on drafting him for it?

Tom Udall is a strong progressive who will fight for the people of New Mexico, not the business interests. According to the non-partisan group Project Vote Smart, in 2006, he was given a 100% by NARAL, Planned Parenthood, Citizens for Tax Justice, the National Education Association, the National Association of Elementary School Principals (2005), the National Parent Teacher Association (2004), the League of Conservation Voters, the American Wilderness Coalition, Americans United for the Separation of Church and State, the American Civil Liberties Union, the Alliance for Retired Americans, the AFL-CIO, the SEIU, United Auto Workers, the Children’s Defense Fund, the Arc, the American Public Health Association, Disabled American Veterans, and the American Association of University Women; as well as a 95% from the Public Interest Research Group, the National Organization of Women, and the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (96%).

In addition to being a solid progressive, Tom Udall is also the strongest Democratic candidate we can muster (except, perhaps for Gov. Richardson, and I think we can all agree we’d like to see Bill as Secretary of State or Vice-President). According to CNN’s Election 2006 and Election 2004 Rep. Udall has won his district by 75% of the vote in 2006 and 70%, compared to Rep. Pearce who only won with 60% of the vote in both 2004 and 2006, and Rep. Wilson only barely broke 50% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. According to a recent Survey USA poll; Udall had an 18 point advantage against both Pearce (55-37) and Wilson (56-38). To put this in perspective, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who is the only major Democrat to declare his candidacy, loses to Pearce by 21 points (35-56) and to Wilson by 4 (44-48). In addition, Tom Udall starts off with state-wide recognition after being New Mexico’s Attorney General during the 1990s. 

In Tom Udall, we have both a solid progressive and a strong candidate to run against either Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce. As such, it is critical we draft Tom Udall for the Senate, not only to strengthen the Democratic majority in congress, but to put a solid progressive and advocate for all New Mexicans. After considering all of this, it should no longer be a question of why we critically need Rep. Udall in the Senate, and anyone who is looking for a strong candidate and a strong progressive voice in the Senate; you should support our movement to draft Tom Udall for Senate.