Tag: Polls

The field isn’t even firmly set on the Republican side, but the GOP begins the open seat race to replace Democratic Gov. Brad Henry in Oklahoma with a big advantage over the two announced Democratic candidates.

Public Policy Polling (5/13-17, registered voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 38

Mary Fallin (R): 48

Drew Edmondson (D): 39

J.C. Watts (R): 47

Jari Askins (D): 34

Mary Fallin (R): 50

Jari Askins (D): 36

J.C. Watts (R): 47

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Now, there’s still a lot of time left on the clock, but those are some pretty impressive numbers for Team Red, considering that both Askins (the sitting Lt. Governor) and AG Edmondson have been elected statewide before in their own right (Edmondson a whopping four times). While both Askins and Edmondson have some room to grow, it’s not like we’re looking at a repeat of 2002, when Henry, as a little-known state senator, stole upsets in both the primary and general elections.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).

Senate primary matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 26

Dan Gelber (D): 16

Undecided: 58

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 18

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±6%)

Senate general election matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Undecided: 21

Dan Gelber (D): 22

Charlie Crist (R): 57

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Governor primary matchups:

Jeb Bush (R): 64

Bill McCollum (R): 13

Charles Bronson (R): 2

Undecided: 21

Bill McCollum (R): 39

Charles Bronson (R): 12

Undecided: 49

(MoE: ±6%)

Governor general election matchups:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Alex Sink (D): 37

Charles Bronson (R): 29

Undecided: 34

Alex Sink (D): 34

Jeb Bush (R): 50

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I’m including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client – the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.

Public Policy Polling (5/13-17, registered voters):

Brad Henry (D): 40

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 52

Dan Boren (D): 36

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 53

(MoE: ±3.7%)

In a hypothetical race against two of the strongest candidates that Oklahoma Democrats could muster — incumbent Gov. Brad Henry and 2nd CD Rep. Dan Boren — Coburn would be far from imperiled. In any case, neither Henry nor Boren would be likely candidates to make kamikaze runs against the incumbent Coburn, who sports a strong 59% approval rating in the same poll. However, an open seat scenario could be different…

Brad Henry (D): 43

Tom Cole (R): 44

Brad Henry (D): 44

J.C. Watts (R): 45

Dan Boren (D): 40

Tom Cole (R): 42

Dan Boren (D): 41

J.C. Watts (R): 46

While the DSCC is reportedly heavily encouraging Henry to run if Coburn decides to retire at the end of his term, it’s a bit sobering to know that the most well-known and popular Democrat in the state would not begin a Senate campaign with an advantage against a sadsack like Tom Cole.

UPDATE: The National Journal reports that ex-Gov. Frank Keating (R) is interested in running for Coburn’s seat should it become open, according to sources close to Keating. Additionally, Coburn is expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans “within the next few weeks”.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (4/28-30, likely voters):

Robin Carnahan (D): 53

Roy Blunt (R): 44

Robin Carnahan (D): 54

Sarah Steelman (R): 42

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Democracy Corps has more:

After voters hear profiles of each candidate, Carnahan maintains a 7-point advantage over Steelman and a 9-point advantage over Blunt. After attacks on each candidate, Carnahan remains above 50 percent against both Republicans, and leads Blunt by 7 and Steelman by 6. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.

Carnahan also enjoys a 46-22 favorability rating, and 87% name recognition among likely voters. Blunt, at 82% recognition, isn’t exactly winning any popularity contests with his 33-27 favorability score. Steelman, an ex-state Treasurer, has more room for growth with just 22-13 rating but only 51% name recognition.

Perhaps most interesting is the fact that, despite narrowly supporting John McCain last year, Missouri voters would prefer a Senator who supports Barack Obama’s agenda as opposed to yet another Republican drone seeking to provide false “balance” to DC:

President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally) and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.

While it’s still very early in the game, this poll is further proof that Carnahan is one of the DSCC’s strongest recruits this cycle.

(Hat-tips: conspiracy, Taegan, and Jeremiah)

We regularly come by polls at SSP that are either dodgy, dull, or both. While we don’t intend to give them all air time, enough have blasted out of the circus cannon in the last week to justify this roundup. Here’s what we’ve got:

• IL-Sen: Some anonymous Republican outfit leaked a poll to Lynn Sweet, but only offered some transparently selective questions – two Mark Kirk head-to-heads that showed him tied with Alexi Giannoulias and Chris Kennedy, son of RFK. There’s also a Dem primary poll which shows Jan Schakowsky leading the pack with all of 20%. Nothing (released?) on Lisa Madigan.

• NH-Sen: Why is it that universities in the Granite State keep polling Cloud Hampshire? Dartmouth is the latest offender, ginning up a 32R-28D sample (real numbers: 29D-29R). Still, Paul Hodes leads John Sununu 38-35, though he somehow has much lower numbers against Charlie Bass, 31-30. No way the Bassmaster inspires a seven-point dither.

• NY-Gov: Quinnipiac’s latest poll is just fine, but there’s really nothing new to see here: Paterson gets pounded by Cuomo and Rudy. Same old. There is one notable datapoint: Cuomo’s lead against Giuliani has slipped from 53-36 to 47-41. The pollster offers no real explanation for this, and I’d personally like to see confirmation elsewhere.

• NYC-Mayor:  Marist’s newest survey is almost identical to their last, with Bloombo leading Weiner 50-36 and Thompson 51-33. Weiner really needs to outright declare that he’s not running for Thompson to have any shot, but just the other day he said the mayor’s attacks on him have made him “more inclined to run.” Guys, the election is just six months away. Quit wasting time.

• OK-Gov: Two polls for ya here. First, a company called SoonerPoll pushed out a GOP primary survey with a sample size of just 139. That’s an MoE over eight. Try again, folks. FWIW, it had Mary Fallin leading JC Watts 45-28. Perhaps to counter this news, a Republican company called Wilson Research Strategies released a poll showing Watts up 39-36. This one at least had a respectable n of 500, though it seems no one (including Wilson) has explained who paid for this poll.

UPDATE: Chris Wilson of Wilson Research writes in:

To follow up on your post regarding who paid for our poll, I did.  We had another survey in the field and I paid to add the GOP primary questions on there simply for the purposes of interest.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/4-6, likely voters).

Democratic and Republican primary match-ups:

Pat Toomey (R): 41

Tom Ridge (R): 33



Arlen Specter (D-inc): 56

Joe Sestak (D): 11

Arlen Specter (D): 60

Joe Torsella (D): 5

(MoE: ±5%)

And here we have a taste of perhaps the reason why ex-Gov. Tom Ridge decided to dispense with the two-bit freak theater that a modern Republican primary campaign against arch-wingnut Pat Toomey would represent. After a long and successful career in politics, why top it off with the ignominy of a possible primary loss to the likes of Toomey? (We should note, though, that an internal R poll had Ridge crushing Toomsbury by nearly 40 points.)

In the Democratic primary, Specter is in pretty decent shape on the surface, but some potential vulnerabilities are quite apparent, according to R2K; only 37% of Democratic voters will definitely vote for Specter in the primary (vs. 16% who say they’ll definitely vote for someone else), and another 23% say they’ll consider choosing a different candidate. (A whopping 24% are undecided on that question, so presumably that vote is up for grabs, too.) Sestak and (especially) Torsella are mostly unknown to the primary electorate right now, so their numbers against Specter would have a lot of room for growth at the end of a big primary fight.

And now for the general election numbers:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55

Pat Toomey (R): 31

Joe Sestak (D): 37

Pat Toomey (R): 32

Joe Torsella (D): 35

Pat Toomey (R): 33

(MoE: ±5%)

Specter crushes Toomey like an empty can of PBR, but the ex-Club For Growth Prez would start off relatively close against either Sestak or Torsella. In terms of raw margins, though, this is very likely Toomey’s high-water mark. By the time the DSCC is done toasting his supply-sided hide, it won’t be close.  

Quinnipiac University (4/28-5/4, “Ohio voters”, March in parens).

Republican gubernatorial primary:

Mike DeWine (R): 35 (32)

John Kasich (R): 23 (27)

Kevin Coughlin (R): 2 (2)

Undecided: 37 (37)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Democratic & Republican Senate primaries:

Lee Fisher (D): 20 (18)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 16 (14)

Tyrone Yates (D): 4 (6)

Undecided: 59 (46)

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Rob Portman (R): 29 (31)

Mary Taylor (R): 8 (14)

Tom Ganley (R): 8 (n/a)

Undecided: 54 (52)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Gubernatorial general election matchups:

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 51 (51)

John Kasich (R): 32 (31)

Undecided: 16 (15)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 48 (50)

Mike DeWine (R): 36 (34)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

Senate general election matchups:

Lee Fisher (D): 42 (41)

Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)

Undecided: 26 (24)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (41)

Mary Taylor (R): 29 (31)

Undecided: 28 (25)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 32 (34)

Undecided: 27 (25)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (38)

Mary Taylor (R): 29 (31)

Undecided: 31 (28)

(MoE: ±3%)

Not a whole lot of motion in the ocean, but nice to see the Dems doing well. One caveat: Fisher and Brunner are both unknown to about 50% of the population, but Portman is unrecognized by two-thirds.

Marist Poll (4/28-29, registered voters, late Feb. in parens). First, the NY-Gov primary matchups:

Andrew Cuomo (D): 70 (62)

David Paterson (D-inc): 21 (26)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 75

Rick Lazio (R): 14

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general election matchups:

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (38)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (53)

David Paterson (D-inc): 37

Rick Lazio (R): 40

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (56)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 38 (39)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67

Rick Lazio (R): 22

(MoE: ±3%)

Paterson losing to Rick Lazio? That Rick Lazio? Oh man. Please, just make it stop. Believe it or not, though, it actually gets worse. In response to the question “Who would you rather have as governor right now?”, voters prefer Eliot Spitzer over David Paterson by a 51-38 margin. Yeesh.

Sigh. Okay. The Senate side primary head-to-heads:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn Maloney: 31

(MoE: ±4.5%)

George Pataki (R): 48 (56)

Peter King (R): 36 (32)

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 38 (45)

George Pataki (R): 46 (41)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42 (49)

Peter King (R): 31 (28)

(MoE: ±3%)

Marist unfortunately doesn’t offer any explanation as to why Gillibrand’s numbers have dropped. Her approvals have worsened, from 18-32 to 19-38. But on that question, Marist is a strange outlier from all other outfits – no one else has Gillibrand under water like that.

As for a potential primary challenge, Marist showed Gillibrand with almost identical numbers a few months back against the other Rep. Carolyn (McCarthy of Long Island). But I’m convinced that Steve Israel is by far the most likely to actually show up, and is the only person I think would have any kind of chance.

Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) for PEG PAC (“end of last week”, registered voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38

Tom Ridge (R): 39

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 36

(MoE: ±2.8%)

PEG PAC describes itself as “Pennsylvania’s oldest pro-business political action committee and the affiliated PAC of the Pennsylvania Business Council (PBC)”. I personally don’t know much about them, but I think the remarks of PBC’s president tell us everything we need to know about where their political biases lie: “We don’t know how [Specter’s] positions and voting might change now that he has joined the Democrat Party.” Democrat Party, huh? And Susquehanna is a Republican firm, FWIW.

Anyhow, the Ridge numbers are pretty similar to the Quinnipiac poll we saw yesterday, but this poll makes Toomey out to be a lot more competitive. Color me skeptical – though Dave Weigel does report that Toomey claims to have already raised half a million bucks since his April 15th entrance. In any event, Research 2000 will have a new poll out soon, so I’m waiting for that. And unlike the two surveys we’ve seen so far, it will test both the D and R primaries.

Speaking of Dem primaries, the anti-Specter sentiment appears to be heating up from labor quarters. SEIU’s Andy Stern said yesterday, “It is hard to imagine any union supporting a candidate in the Democratic Party for the US Senate who doesn’t have strong positions on both healthcare and Employee Free Choice.” An AFL-CIO official said something similar. Personally, I like Stern’s framing – yet another flip-flop on EFCA from Specter (were one to happen) would hardly be soothing and would not constitute a “strong position.” So this leaves the door open for a primary challenge even if Specter does change his mind for the umpteenth time. And I increasingly think I’d like to see that challenge.

It’s midnight madness here at SSP, and all old polls must go before they get too musty-odored.

Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (4/27-29, likely voters):

Roy Barnes (D): 44

John Oxendine (R): 46

Roy Barnes (D): 45

Karen Handel (R): 39

Thurbert Baker (D): 42

John Oxendine (R): 47

Thurbert Baker (D): 42

Karen Handel (R): 40

David Poythress (D): 43

John Oxendine (R): 47

David Poythress (D): 43

Karen Handel (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

Daily Kos took a look at the Georgia gubernatorial race late last week, and found the Democratic field in competitive shape against Republicans John Oxendine (the state Insurance Comm’r) and Karen Handel (Georgia’s SoS). Here’s the wrinkle, though: R2K pegged the African-American vote at 28% of the electorate, which is awfully close to the 30% mark that black voters hit in last year’s presidential election, according to CNN’s exit poll.

The Democratic nominee will have to wage a rigorous campaign in order to keep many of these voters from taking an electoral hiatus, lest they suffer the same fate of the uninspired campaign of Democrat Mark Taylor in the 2006 gubernatorial race, when African-American voters made up just 16% of the electorate. Perhaps the nomination of Attorney General Thurbert Baker (himself an African-American) might help rev up the base vote, or perhaps not — after all, a recent Strategic Vision poll suggested that ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would handily beat Baker for the nomination if he decided to run.

R2K also took a quick look at the Senate race:

Jim Marshall (D): 40

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 48

Roy Barnes (D): 43

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47

Despite possessing a generally more congenial attitude than Georgia’s Senior Senator, wingnut punk Saxby Chambliss, Isakson’s favorability score is not exactly impressive: 47-41. That’s a markedly weaker score than the 55-37 rating Isakson earned in Strategic Vision’s polling earlier this month. But the question must be begged: with most of the state’s top Democratic talent gravitating toward the open Governor’s race, who wants to take on Isakson? Barnes has only expressed interest in a gubernatorial comebacker, and Marshall seems like a pretty long longshot to jump into this type of race. This could be an ideal situation for the recruitment of a well-to-do self-funding candidate to help shoulder the party’s ticket, if Georgia Democrats could manage to find such a candidate.

UPDATE: Lots of discussion underway in fatcathobbes’s diary.