Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (6/1-3, likely voters, 5/18-20 in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (36)

Brian Moran (D): 27 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (13)

Undecided: 17 (29)

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the third public poll (of the last four) to show Deeds grabbing the lead, but with the number of undecideds as high as they are and the primary voter ‘verse as uncertain as ever, the nomination is effectively a three-way jump ball right now. It would be quite the Cinderella story if Deeds could pull this off.

Meanwhile, McAuliffe is rolling out an endorsement from a surprising source: Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer… who is also serving as the chair of the Democratic Governors Association this cycle. The DGA, in case you’re not familiar, is the campaign and fundraising arm for Democratic gubernatorial candidates across the country. While Schweitzer’s people are claiming that he’s only making a personal endorsement, doing so while serving as DGA chair is misguided and unacceptable — especially when the chances are very real that McAuliffe won’t end up being the Democratic nominee on Tuesday. When you’re in the position that Schweitzer is in, the only smart and sensible move is to remain neutral until the nominee is decided by the primary electorate.

And I won’t even begin to get into the issue of McAuliffe being about as antithetical as possible to the populist, DC-despising image that Schweitzer has carefully crafted for himself over the years…

• CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons needs to look like one of those allegedly-not-quite-extinct moderate New England Republicans in order to get elected in Connecticut, but he’s not doing himself any favors by appearing with Newt Gingrich at the annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner. With a large Puerto Rican population in Connecticut, Simmons probably doesn’t want to be anywhere near Sonia Sotomayor’s loudest and most toxic critic. Another problem for Simmons: businessman Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland, made his official entry into the GOP primary field today. Foley, unlike Simmons, has deep pockets he can self-fund with.

• MN-Sen: Sources close to Norm Coleman are suggesting he won’t appeal at the federal level if he loses his case with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Republicans still publicly say they’ll try to stop any Dem efforts to seat Al Franken until Coleman has conceded or exhausted his appeals. John Cornyn has sent some mixed signals, though, saying it’s “entirely” Coleman’s decision whether to keep fighting and that he’s “amazed that Sen. Coleman’s been willing to persevere as long as he has.”

• NV-Sen: Wondering why the GOP is having a hard time attracting a challenger to supposedly-vulnerable Harry Reid? Maybe it’s because of his deep levels of support among much of the state’s Republican establishment. The Reid camp released a list of 60 GOP endorsers, including, most prominently, soon-to-be-ex-First Lady (and former NV-02 candidate) Dawn Gibbons, Reno mayor Bob Cashell, and, in a move guaranteed to nail down the key 18-29 demographic, Wayne Newton.

• NH-Sen: Could it be that the NRSC could actually be stuck running Ovide Lamontagne against Rep. Paul Hodes? Just the very fact that the NRSC is talking to Lamontagne (a businessman whose one claim to fame is losing the 1996 governor’s race to Jeanne Shaheen) with an apparently straight face should be a red flag that their top-tier possibilities (ex-Sen. John Sununu, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass) aren’t looking likely.

• NY-Sen-B: Joe Biden reportedly had a sit-down earlier this week with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who may or may not be running in the Senate primary against Kirsten Gillibrand. Presumably the meeting would contain some of the same content as Barack Obama’s now-famous phone call to Rep. Steve Israel.

• OH-Sen: If a candidate falls in the woods with no one around, does he make a sound? State Rep. Tyrone Yates has been exploring the Senate race for several months, and apparently found nothing that would help him overcome Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, as he bowed out of the race.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has the first post-primary poll of the New Jersey governor’s race. Chris Christie may have gotten a bit of a brief unity bounce in the wake of his primary victory, as he’s up to a 51-38 edge over Jon Corzine now, as opposed to 47-38 last month. There’s one spot of ‘good’ news, as it were, for Corzine: his approval rating is back up to 42%.

• AZ-08: Construction company executive and ex-Marine Jesse Kelly seems to be the establishment GOP’s choice to go against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in 2010. He announced endorsements from three House members: Trent Franks, Duncan Hunter, and Frank Wolf. (Not quite clear how endorsements from Hunter and Wolf help him in Arizona, though.)

• KS-01: State Senator Jim Barnett got into the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Moran, who’s running for Senate. Barnett may quickly become front-runner, based on his name recognition from being the 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate (where he lost the state as a whole to Kathleen Sebelius, but won the dark-red 1st). He’s up against a more conservative state Senator Tim Huelskamp, and Sam Brownback’s former chief of staff, Rob Wasinger. The primary is the whole shooting match in this R+23 district.

• KY-01: After the purchase of “whitfieldforsenate.com” got people’s attention yesterday, Rep. Ed Whitfield had to tamp that down, confirming that he’s running for re-election in his R+15 House seat.

• MN-06: Even if this goes nowhere, it’s great to have a GOPer doing our framing for us… attorney Chris Johnston is publicly mulling a primary challenge to (his words, on his website) “‘anti-American’ hurling, malaprop-spouting, ‘they took me out of context'” Rep. Michele Bachmann. He confirms that he and Bachmann share “strong conservative beliefs;” he just thinks the 6th would prefer someone “who thinks before they speak.”

• NH-02: Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is launching an exploratory committee to run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Paul Hodes. St. Rep. John DeJoie is already in the primary field, and they may soon be joined by Katrina Swett.

• NY-03: Dems are scoping out potential candidates in Long Island’s NY-03 (which fell to R+4 in the wake of 2008), thinking that even if Rep. Peter King doesn’t vacate to run for Senate he’s still vulnerable. The biggest fish would be Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi, who seems to have bigger fish to fry (reportedly AG if Andrew Cuomo vacates). The next-biggest fish would Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice. Smaller fish listed include Isobel Coleman of the Council of Foreign Relations, and minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton.

• NH-Legislature: It took a rewrite of a couple sentences that Gov. John Lynch didn’t like, but after a few weeks of back-and-forth New Hampshire finally enacted gay marriage. Both chambers passed the amended bill yesterday (clearing the House 198-176) and Lynch signed it into law on the same day.

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (5/26-30, likely voters, early May in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 34

None/other: 4

Undecided: 32

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (36)

None/other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first poll I’ve seen of the Pennsylvania governor’s race; it’s from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn’t seem to be taken on anyone’s behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.

But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he’s well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he’s better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there’s also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there’s former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).

On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).

The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn’t ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.

Public Policy Polling (5/28-31, likely voters, 5/19-21 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 27 (20)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 24 (29)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (20)

Undecided: 26 (31)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Tom Jensen breaks down the factors that are currently benefiting Deeds:

Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:

-Deeds’ endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.

-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He’s dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.

Even still, PPP cautions that the race is anyone’s game: that block of undecideds is still pretty huge (26%), and even among voters who do have a preference, a large number of them (44%) say that they could still change their mind. McAuliffe’s favorables are by far the weakest in the Dem field (39-35, comapared to 48-13 for Deeds and 44-18 for Moran), but he’s currently launching a costly moneynuke in the vote-rich DC media market — something that the cash-strapped Moran and Deeds can’t compete with.

And speaking of Northern VA, SUSA has a NoVA-only poll showing Moran leading McAuliffe by 43-27, with Deeds checking in at 20%. That’s not far off from the Moran 36/McAuliffe 27/Deeds 23 split from PPP’s innards.

PPP will be releasing one final poll of this race on Sunday night (or Monday morning), so we’ll have one final chance to see if McAuliffe’s big-spending ways are having an impact.

(Discussion already underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

Garin Hart Yang for Dan Mongiardo (5/12-13, registered Democrats):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43

Jack Conway (D): 28

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±5.4%)

The Conway camp is raising a big stink over this poll, correctly pointing to the methodology’s rather portly margin of error. However, this is the first poll we’ve seen of the primary, and it’s not at all inconceivable that Mongiardo would be starting the race in the lead; a February poll from Research 2000 indicated that Mongiardo has stronger name recognition throughout the state, with only 5% of Democrats not having an opinion of him compared to 24% for Conway.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary continues to be lively:

Conway is scheduled to attend a Saturday night fundraiser at the Fort Mitchell home of Nathan Smith, the former vice chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party. [Mongiardo spokesman Kim] Geveden noted that the suggested contributions for the event are $250 to attend the fundraiser, but for $1,000 contributors can attend a “private conversation” with Conway.

“If Jack is charging $1,000 for a private conversation I can’t imagine what it would cost if he was ever elected U.S. Senator,” Geveden said in an interview. “You don’t have to pay $1 much less $1,000 to have a private conversation with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo.”

Only another year of this. Sigh.

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV (5/18-21, “people”)

Primaries:

Debbie Stabenow (D): 49

John Cherry (D): 14

Robert Ficano (D): 5

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 2

George Perles (D): 2

Andy Dillon (D): 1

Don Williamson (D): 1

Undecided: 26

Peter Hoekstra (R): 27

Mike Cox (R): 26

Terri Lynn Land (R): 19

David Brandon (R): 2

Tom George (R): 1

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

General:

John Cherry (D): 36

Peter Hoekstra (R): 33

John Cherry (D): 36

Mike Cox (R): 35

John Cherry (D): 34

Terri Lynn Land (R): 35

(MoE: ±4%)

The Michigan Governor’s race still looks to be our toughest blue-state gubernatorial retention in 2010. Lt. Gov. John Cherry has the inside track toward the Dem nomination, but he’s polling about even with the three likely GOPers. Probably our best shot here would be for polarizing Rep. Peter Hoekstra to emerge battered from a Republican primary over AG Mike Cox and SoS Terri Lynn Land (by consolidating his base in the conservative western part of the state), letting Cherry narrowly win the general… which is what this poll forecasts happening.

The weirdest thing about this poll is undoubtedly the presence of Sen. Debbie Stabenow. I haven’t heard about her having an iota of interest in jumping into the Governor’s race (although she could do so without danger, as she isn’t up for re-election until 2012). Interestingly, she would crush in both the primary and general if she did have any interest in heading back to Michigan. (In hypothetical generals, Stabenow beats Hoekstra 44-35, Cox 43-35, and Land 44-35. Good news, actually, because those are the same numbers the GOPers put up against Cherry, indicating that the GOP may have a ceiling and the electorate has a Dem lean, but that people who haven’t heard of Cherry yet are reluctant to commit to him.)

Robert Ficano, who polls third in the Dem primary, is the Wayne County Executive; he too hasn’t taken any visible steps toward running. (The poll also looks at general matchups with Ficano; he loses to Hoekstra 35-34, Cox 37-30, and Land 37-30.) Andy Dillon is the term-limited state House Speaker, who has been visibly interested in the Governor’s race; however maybe he’ll take a look at his 1% share and think about moving over to the MI-11 race (which he’s already declined, but, against vulnerable Rep. Thad McCotter, seems likelier to have a happy ending for him).

Results for Cherry are a little better than a poll conducted for Inside Michigan Politics in early March, which had Cherry trailing Cox 41-34 and Land 39-34 (Cherry/Hoekstra wasn’t polled). This earlier poll had Oakland County Exec L. Brooks Patterson winning the GOP primary over Cox, Hoekstra, and Land, 22-17-15-12, but Patterson has since said he won’t run. Maybe Cherry’s visibility has increased in the last few months, but mostly that just seems to be a difference in the composition of the two samples.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, “North Carolina voters,” Shuler trendlines from January). I’ve put each of the Dem candidates’ favorables in brackets.

Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44

Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Heath Shuler (D): 28  (28) [25-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (39)

Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡

Richard Burr (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±3.5%)

‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec – hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.

Here’s how Tom Jensen of PPP sums up the situation:

Pulling together all the information we have, here’s the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.

Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice – do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

That sounds about right to me.

• PA-Sen: Now that Rep. Steve Israel got chased out of the New York Senate race, the Dems have turned their negative-charm offensive to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. No phone call from the POTUS, apparently, but the DSCC and Bob Menendez are on the case. (Sestak has been dialing down the rhetoric on Arlen Specter in the last week, so he may already be arriving at this decision on own.) Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the ledger, the party seems reconciled to Pat Toomey‘s candidacy. They’ve stopped (publicly, at least) looking for a more moderate alternative to Toomey for the primary.

• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they’re confident he’ll run again.

• FL-Sen: He hadn’t sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won’t run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)

• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn’t come to save them in the Senate race, they’re starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and “Bush cabinet” isn’t exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.

• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon’s son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor’s race. He’s a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn’t get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.

• NC-08: The NRCC’s plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who’s never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn’t have made as much sense.)

• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who’s currently the state GOP’s “minority outreach director.”

SurveyUSA (5/18-19, registered voters):

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 51

Matt Entenza (D): 37

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 52

Tom Bakk (D): 34

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 51

John Marty (D): 34

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 50

Susan Gaertner (D): 36

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 47

Mark Dayton (D): 43

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 51

Paul Thissen (D): 32

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 47

R.T. Rybak (D): 42

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 48

Chris Coleman (D): 37

Tim Pawlenty (R-inc): 51

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 34

(MoE: ±4.3%)

And because you can’t tell the players without a scorecard (unless you’re a Minnesota political junkie)…

Paul Thissen, a Minneapolis-area state representative

Tom Bakk, a state senator representing parts of northeast Minnesota

John Marty, a state senator from Roseville

Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives

Susan Gaertner, County Attorney for Ramsey County

Matt Entenza, former Minnesota State House Democratic Leader and 2006 candidate for Attorney General

Chris Coleman, mayor of St. Paul

R. T. Rybak, mayor of Minneapolis

Mark Dayton, former U.S. Senator

Of course, the field is still very fluid here; it’s unlikely that all of the above names will strap on a pair and jump into the roller derby, and we can’t even be sure that T-Paw himself will run for a third term.

In the diaries, Populista offers a local take on the above numbers. It’s worth a look.

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.