Tag: Polls

Public Policy Polling (4/8-11, registered voters, 12/8-9 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 41 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 37 (34)

Mike McIntyre (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP seems to be on a quest to test every conceivable Dem against Richard Burr, and this time they threw 7th CD Rep. Mike McIntyre into the mix; despite being unknown to over half the state, McIntyre posts the best performance of any Dem against Burr in PPP’s polling other than state Attorney General Roy Cooper. While McIntyre has not expressed any interest in the Senate race, he would bring some regional strength in a hypothetical match-up; in a head-to-head against Burr, he leads the Republican by 48-33 in Southeastern NC, while Burr and Cooper are tied at 40-40 there.

Still, Cooper is undoubtedly our best bet for this race. He sports a solid 41-20 favorable rating (much better than Burr’s tepid 35-31 rating), and destroys Burr among moderate voters by a 56-21 margin. For those keeping score, this marks the third poll (of four publicly-released ones) showing Cooper in the lead. Luckily for us, Cooper will make a decision on this race “very soon“.

Quinnipiac (3/26-31, registered voters, 3/3-3/8 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 34 (42)

Rob Simmons (R): 50 (43)

Undecided: 12 (12)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 37 (47)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 41 (34)

Undecided: 17 (16)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35

Tom Foley (R): 43

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Quinnipiac finds that Nutmeggers are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. In the wake of Dodd’s admission that he inserted the language that allowed bonus payments to be made to AIG executives, Dodd’s already poor favorability rating has taken a brutal hit: he currently is sitting on a 58% unfavorable rating, and his re-elect/dump score is a chilling 35-59. A full 54% of voters consider Dodd untrustworthy, and 39% place “a lot” of blame on Dodd for the bonusgate fiasco, while another 35% place “some” blame on the Senator. (That’s a higher share of blame than is placed on George W. Bush, who receives scorn from 59% of CT voters for the AIG payments.) Still, the fact that a five-term incumbent like Dodd is losing to a pair of no-name generic GOPers with name recognition in the teens is fairly jarring.

The results from this poll differ fairly sharply from the first post-AIG poll done by R2K in the immediate aftermath of the revelations; in that survey, Dodd held a 45-40 lead over Simmons, and was over 50 against Caligiuri and non-candidate Larry Kudlow. We’ll probably want to see another poll before we start asking Dodd to walk the plank (as the DSCC is refusing to do publicly at this stage), but I’m sure we won’t be facing a shortage of polls from this race over the coming months.

More discussion on this poll is already underway in andgarden’s diary.

Siena College (PDF) (3/25-26, likely voters, 3/9-10 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 47 (41)

Jim Tedisco (R): 43 (45)

Eric Sundwall (L): 2 (1)

(MoE: 3.2%)

If I had a Drudge siren, I’d be breaking it out right now. There’s been blogosphere whispers for the last few days of various leaked polls showing Murphy within a point or two or even up by a point, but nothing quite of this magnitude: Scott Murphy has turned a four-point deficit from two weeks ago into a four-point lead in a public poll. Before we start dancing in the end zone, though, we have to remember that this is a low-turnout special election, and whatever happens is going to be decided by GOTV and ground game. Even if we’re peaking at the right time, the key is going to be actually getting those Murphy voters to the polls.

The GOP registration edge in the district isn’t helping Tedisco much. Part of the problem is that Murphy has the support of 84% of the Democrats, while Tedisco has the support of only 64% of the Republicans. The poll also has crosstabs of the regions within the district: while Murphy is remaining steady in the region he’s from (Essex/Warren/Washington Counties), he’s gained 8% since last poll in Rensselaer/Saratoga Counties (to 43%) and 7% in the Hudson Valley (to 46%). Combined with his 58% in the north, that’s enough to put him over the top.

There’s still one wrinkle in this poll: it includes Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, who got kicked off the ballot yesterday for not having enough valid petition signatures. While I’d expect more of Sundwall’s votes to migrate to Tedisco than Murphy, some of his would-be voters may simply stay home, and at any rate, Sundwall’s share in this poll is still smaller than the Murphy/Tedisco margin.

UPDATE by James L.: A new DCCC poll has Murphy leading Tedisco by a 43-41 margin. No details are available yet on its sample size or the name of the outfit that conducted the poll.

Civitas (3/16-19, registered voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 41

Richard Burr (R-inc): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Roy Cooper, the Attorney General of North Carolina, continues to post the best numbers of any prospective Democrat against GOP wallflower Richard Burr. A Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos in January showed Burr edging Cooper by a 45-43 margin, while PPP had Cooper leading by a 39-34 spread in December. Burr has to be nervous about a head-to-head race against the state’s top lawman.

Both Burr and Cooper will have an opportunity to acquaint a broad swath of voters with themselves; Burr holds a 44-12 favorability rating, but 31% have “no opinion” of the Senator, and another 19% have never heard of him. Lacking a well-defined image after four years in office while holding a notoriously volatile seat seems to be Burr’s biggest weakness at this point. Cooper, meanwhile, is not exactly a household name either — he sports a 32-4 favorability rating with 27% having no opinion of him and complete unfamiliarity with another 37%.

Still, Democrats have to be pretty excited about these nums. We just have to hope that Cooper can be persuaded to take the plunge.

Quinnipiac (3/19-23, “Republican voters,” no trendlines):

Pat Toomey (R): 41

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 27

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Pretty amazing. Plenty of undecideds, but Toomey never had a poll this good in 2004 – nor did Specter have one this bad. The closest Quinnipiac had it was 48-42 Specter shortly before the primary. Even more surprising is that this poll appears to be of registered voters, not likely voters, and polling from last time showed Specter understandably doing better with the former group. If he’s already faring this poorly among RVs….

In any event, it looks like Specter has moved into reverse Lieberman territory. His favorability rating is just 29-47 among members of his own party, while Dems really like him – 60-16. With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that we’ve heard chatter about a party switch, and that Specter’s been busy trying to open up PA’s GOP primary to independents.

As long as this poll isn’t some crazy outlier, this ought to be a hell of a race. Andgarden has more.

UPDATE: There’s a second poll out on this primary. Franklin & Marshall (PDF) (3/17-22, registered Republicans, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 33

Pat Toomey (R): 18

Peg Luksik (R): 2

Other: 5

Undecided: 42

(MoE: ±6.8%)

Better nums for Specter, of course, but a very tiny sample (n=211), and as I said above, he never had a survey this bad five years ago. I should also add that Specter’s shameful flip-flop on EFCA has obviously infuriated his erstwhile labor allies – but it hasn’t tamped down criticism from the right, either. He’s in a very tough place right now.

Insider Advantage (3/17, registered voters, no trendlines):

Roy Barnes (D): 35

Casey Cagle (R): 39

Undecided: 26

Roy Barnes (D): 38

John Oxendine (R): 33

Undecided: 29

Roy Barnes (D): 34

Karen Handel (R): 29

Undecided: 37

(MoE: 4%)

Barnes, 61, served as Georgia’s governor for one term (1999-2003), until he was unexpectedly booted out by Sonny Perdue – who is himself term-limited, making this an open seat. Cagle is the current Lt. Gov., Oxendine is the state Insurance Commissioner, and Handel is the Secretary of State.

The original poll results are unfortunately behind a paywall now, so I don’t know what Barnes’s name rec looks like, over six years after he left office. I’d suspect it’s still fairly high, but his favorables are a separate question. Meanwhile, IA does say that all three GOP contenders are fairly unknown, so we might be comparing Generic R to Well-Known D.

These uncertainties, plus the high undecideds, might mean that Barnes isn’t actually as competitive as these early numbers show. I recall one poll just over four years ago which showed Lucy Baxley leading AL Gov. Bob Riley 39-35 with 26% undecided. Twenty months later, those numbers were the dimmest of memories.

Siena College (PDF) (3/16-18, registered voters, Feb. 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 17 (27)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67 (53)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±_._%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 33 (36)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (51)

Undecided: 11 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Brutal. Just brutal. Paterson’s favorables are now at 29-58 – in November, they were 64-19! His job approval is even worse, 17-78, and his re-elects are 14-67. Meanwhile, Cuomo is busy clocking in some of his highest ratings ever – almost the mirror-image of the Governor. He’s even winning African American voters by 55-22. I never imagined I’d say this considering how high he was riding just half a year ago, but it may seriously be time for Paterson to consider not running again.

Siena also tested some Senate nums:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 41

George Pataki (R): 41

Undecided: 18

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 47 (40)

Peter King (R): 23 (27)

Undecided: 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

These aren’t as interesting as they may look. Fifty-four percent of the state has no opinion of Gillibrand, while Pataki has 90% name rec. Plus, I’d be quite surprised if he got in. Gillibrand’s considerable resources will undoubtedly allow her to enhance her statewide profile over the next year.

The full cross-tabs are here (PDF). BigDust also has a post on this poll.

Marketing Resource Group for Inside Michigan Politics (3/4-3/10, registered voters):

John Cherry (D): 34

Mike Cox (R): 41

John Cherry (D): 34

Terri Lynn Land (R): 39

John Cherry (D): 34

L. Brooks Patterson (R): 38

L. Brooks Patterson (R): 22

Peter Hoekstra (R): 17

Mike Cox (R): 15

Terri Lynn Land (R): 12

(MoE: ±4.1%)

People in the know about Michigan politics have been warning us that, despite its blue-state status, we’re going to face an uphill fight to retain the open gubernatorial seat in Michigan. Much of the public ire with Michigan’s dire economic straits seems to be aimed toward Jennifer Granholm’s administration, and with her #2, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, as the Dems’ likeliest nominee, that’s a problem for us. With this poll commissioned by local politics newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, we have some confirmation, as all three head-to-heads show Cherry trailing Republican rivals.

While Cherry fares the worst against Attorney General Mike Cox (cue Beavis & Butthead-style laughter here…), Cherry also loses by narrower margins to SoS Terri Lynn Land and Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. Cox, however, isn’t in a good position in the primary; Patterson, with high name rec in the Detroit suburbs, beats him, as does retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who has a strong base in the Grand Rapids area. (No Cherry/Hoekstra matchup was released.)

The writeup in the Detroit Free Press also alludes to Democratic primary results, although it doesn’t give specific numbers. Cherry easily dispatches Daniel Mulhern (Granholm’s husband, who’s said he isn’t running), ex-Michigan St. football coach George Perles, and state House Speaker Andy Dillon. Dillon is term-limited out of the House in 2010 and is apparently interested enough in the governor’s race to forego a challenge in MI-11 to the vulnerable Thad McCotter; I’d be very interested to see how Dillon polls in head-to-heads against the leading GOPers, to see if the problems are specific to Cherry or if there’s a bigger problem with the Democratic brand in Michigan right now.

The University of Texas (2/24-3/6, GOP primary voters):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 36

Rick Perry (R-inc): 30

Other: 11

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With a rather portly MoE and an extended polling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you wish. The last time we dipped our toes into the Lone Star state, Public Policy Polling released a survey in February showing Hutchison creaming Perry by a 56-31 margin; Team Perry must be relatively ecstatic to be seeing numbers like these instead. Burnt Orange Report‘s Phillip Martin offers his take:

While I still contend that polls are more or less meaningless at this stage of the game — as evidenced by 25% undecided — this should push back on the (worthless) conventional wisdom that Rick Perry is somehow out of this race. I still think Perry will win in the primary — he has a presence in the state, he is more connected with the hardcore base voters that will absolutely turn out to vote, and he’s a cyborg that never sleeps so he’ll be able to campaign 3-4 times more than Hutchison.

The UT poll also includes twelve head-to-head match-ups for Hutchison’s senate seat (assuming a vacancy occurs). Since front page real estate on SSP is a hot commodity, I won’t post the full list here, but the results are pretty predictable — Republicans lead most of the hypothetical match-ups by small margins, with huge chunks of undecided voters. In other words: it’s really too early to make sense of a largely undefined field. To see the full numbers for yourselves, click here.

Oh, and speaking of this race’s lack of definition… unnamed sources are telling Roll Call that Hutchison is likely to remain in the Senate while she wages a primary campaign against Perry. (Discussion of this point is already well underway in DTM,B!’s diary.) So, if Perry survives net year, we may not have an open seat Senate race to discuss here at all… unless KBH decides to throw in the towel in 2012, which I suppose isn’t out of the question.

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 32

Mike Castle (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 19

Chris Coons (D): 21

Mike Castle (R-inc): 56

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±3.5%)

This poll is already a couple of days old now, but it’s still worth a look. After being given a pass by Democrats since he was first elected to the House in 1992, PPP tests Castle against two credible potential 2010 foes: former Lt. Gov. John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (Carney has expressed interest in the race, but I’m not sure if I can say the same for Coons). The results are unsurprising: Castle would begin the campaign with a wide lead, but rests just under the 50% bubble against Carney. Tom Jensen takes a look under the hood:

Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.

There’s also a matter of name recognition, which is still an issue for Carney despite a high profile gubernatorial primary campaign last fall; a full 35% of voters don’t have an opinion of him either way. In other words: Carney has room to grow, and while this would be an uphill climb, he’d have an outside shot at an upset — and perhaps an even better shot if Castle’s campaign skills prove rusty.

Another point worth mentioning about this poll is the rather surprising fact that it was written up by the National Journal’s Hotline. In case you’re not aware, in previous cycles, the Hotline had clung to a strict policy of ignoring the existence of IVR (a.k.a. “automated”) polling, seemingly in adherence to the Beltway belief that automated polling is unreliable and untrustworthy (“the dog could be answering the questions!”). I’m not sure what’s behind the editorial change-of-heart over at the Hotline (perhaps the generally solid performance of IVR firms in 2008 had something to do with it), but I’m glad that they’ve made the decision to join the 21st Century.