Tag: Polls

Every pollster you can think of, and every pollster’s dog as well, just released New Hampshire numbers. There aren’t any particular surprises (there’s major improvement in Strategic Vision and Suffolk, but that just brings them in line with everyone else), so I’m just going to throw them all out there in a somewhat more space-saving format:

Rasmussen: Shaheen 52 (52), Sununu 44 (46)

SurveyUSA: Shaheen 53 (48), Sununu 40 (40)

Lynch 65 (67), Kenney 28 (24)

Strategic Vision (R): Shaheen 48 (47), Sununu 41 (45)

Lynch 67 (68), Kenney 24 (23)

Suffolk: Shaheen 48 (41), Sununu 39 (40)

Lynch 67 (61), Kenney 15 (16)

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor:

Shaheen 52 (50), Sununu 42 (43)

Lynch 64 (60), Kenney 32 (34)

Shea-Porter 49 (48), Bradley 42 (43)

Hodes 55 (49), Horn 38 (35)

Also, as always, UNH has its daily tracker, which covers all these races plus the presidential and the two congressional races, if you’re a big fan of tiny sample sizes.

Public Policy Polling (10/28-30, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 51

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 43

Dave Brownlow (C): 4

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Those are beautiful numbers, but these are even better: 59% of likely voters have filled in their ballots so far, and of that group, Merkley is ahead by 59-37. My crude back-of-the-cocktail napkin analysis says that Smith would have to take roughly two-thirds of the outstanding vote in order to pull off a win here. And while Smith leads among likely voters who have yet to complete their ballots (by 51-39 over Merkley), that’s not enough to erase the strong early edge that Merkley has built up.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 56-42.

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/14 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (47)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

Some other: 4 (n/a)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen polls Oregon too, and the results are good, with Merkley up by 3. Now 3 might not seem that confidence-inspiring compared with other pollsters’ numbers in this race, but bear in mind that a) this is the first time Merkley has sported a lead in a Rasmussen poll, and b) Rasmussen keeps on not including Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party, who is bleeding off votes on Smith’s right flank (although this time they do report that 4% plan to vote for ‘some other’ candidate).

Public Policy Polling has a fresh survey right out of the oven (10/28-30, likely voters):

Al Franken (DFL): 45

Norm Coleman (R): 40

Dean Barkley (IP): 14

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Coleman takes 85% of Republicans and Franken holds 81% of Democrats, with Barkley taking a roughly equal share from each party. That’s pretty good news, but it’s tempered by a pair of recent polls — including one by Rasmussen — showing Coleman with the lead. Here’s the other:

Mason-Dixon (10/27-28, likely voters):

Al Franken (DFL): 36

Norm Coleman (R): 42

Dean Barkley (IP): 12

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I admire all you brave souls who have taken a stab at this race in our predictions contest thread. This one is real tossup.

SurveyUSA (10/28-29, likely voters, 9/24-25 in parens):

Alice Kryzan (D): 34 (37)

Chris Lee (R): 48 (48)

Other/Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Sigh — what an ugly picture this is. The “Other/Undecided” vote is especially high for a SUSA poll, and perhaps that number includes a few folks who are intending to pull the lever for Jon Powers, who is still stuck on the Working Families Party line. Indeed, a full 20% of Democrats are in that column.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

OnMessage Inc. for John Kennedy (10/27-29, likely voters, 10/14-16 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 45 (47)

John Kennedy (R): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

A pollster we’re friendly with (who’s gone into the field in this race many times) sums this poll up in one word: bullshit. He thinks it’s likely juked to suck in a little last-minute PAC money and to ward off demoralization in the final weekend. YMMV, but don’t say we didn’t warn you.

UPDATE: A new Loyola University poll has different result (10/24-26, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 49

John Kennedy (R): 34

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The same poll has McCain leading Obama by only 43-40, which seems a bit on the optimistic side.

Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 45 (45)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here we are, a few days before the election, and the Minority Leader of the United States Senate is ahead by only two points and under the 50% threshold. That’s hardly a position of strength for the mighty McConnell. The polling memo, which is available below the fold, also notes that the sample may be underestimating African-American turnout by a significant margin — enough to perhaps give Lunsford an extra couple of points.

On another note, Lunsford has a pair of new ads out — one featuring excerpts from a stump speech from the Bubba Queen herself, Hillary Clinton (what an extraordinary sign of the times), and the other featuring a famous pack of bloodhounds.

UPDATE: The latest Rasmussen poll has McConnell ahead by 51-44, essentially unchanged from last week, when Mitch led by 50-43. Rasmussen has been a bit friendlier to McConnell than other pollsters have in recent weeks, but we’ll find out which poll is more accurate soon enough.

LATER UPDATE: Mason-Dixon has McConnell up by 47-42, which is an improvement for him over late September, when the race was nearly tied at 45-44.

Harstad Strategic Services (10/19-22, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 33

Jim Risch (R): 45

Rex Rammell (I): 5

Pro-Life (I): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t agree with McJoan’s assessment that the DSCC should lay down some last-minute coin to push LaRocco over the edge here — a few 30-second ads won’t be enough to make up a 12-point gap with only a few days left on the clock. And while Risch isn’t wildly popular in Idaho (his favorable rating is 41-28), LaRocco is even less loved — his favorable rating clocks in at a 34-37. Unfair? Maybe, but this is Idaho, and these numbers aren’t going to get the job done. The DSCC is correct to focus on tighter races.

But the real nugget from this poll is its 1st CD numbers:

Walt Minnick (D): 48

Bill Sali (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.9%)

Keep in mind that the sample size is quite small here, but it’s the second poll in recent days showing Sali trailing Minnick (SUSA had Minnick up by six). Minnick might just pull this one off.

Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she’s had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren’t enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan’s favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole’s slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it’s unclear whether the flap over the ‘godless’ ad had an effect one way or the other.

Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 42

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that’s where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll… this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon’s focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it’s the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.

UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.

National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 43

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Dane & Associates for Glen Meakem (10/27-28, ‘probable’ voters, 10/13-14 in parens):

Jack Murtha (D-inc): 46

William Russell (R): 44

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Here’s the takeaway: don’t call your constituents ‘racists.’ Jack Murtha is an institution in this D+5 district (he’s the one of only two sitting congress members to have the local airport named after him… the other one, of course, is Ted Stevens). Institution status notwithstanding, though, we’re starting to see a pattern here in his post-gaffe environment… as much as these GOP internal polls individually seem ticky-tacky, they’re accumulating and it’s troubling that Murtha hasn’t responded in kind. With the DCCC and NRCC (as well as right-wing Vets for Freedom) jumping in with last minute ad buys, and with Murtha making a pitch for money to Move On members, we at SSP feel there’s enough cause for concern here to downgrade this race to “Likely Democratic.”

Remember that William Russell is one of the ‘defrauder’ candidates raising funds through shadowy direct mail firm BMW Direct. Josh Marshall returned to this story yesterday, finding that Russell is actually pocketing a fair bit of money ($1.1 million, out of $2.5 million raised) even after paying for BMW’s unusually large fees. That $1.1 million is still much less than the $2 million that Murtha has spent, though.

As for the other bit players in this story, Dane & Associates is a Las Vegas-based automated pollster who, as best as I can tell from a quick Google of the tubes, has never made public any of its polls prior to this race. This poll was made public through grassrootsPA.com, a right-wing state blog that seems to aspire to be a local version of Drudge, based on its firehose-spew of news items and atrocious design sensibilities. The guy who actually paid for it, Glen Meakem, seems to be a Pittsburgh-area internet rich guy with his own Republican political aspirations, at least according to this puff piece from the right-leaning Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Research 2000 (10/25-28, likely voters, 10/3-5 in parens):

Jill Derby (D): 44 (41)

Dean Heller (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Those are some very nice numbers for Derby. Combined with the recent Democratic voter registration surge in the district and exit polling showing Derby with a 55-44 lead in the early vote, perhaps Derby could shock us all next week. Keep your eyes on this one.

(Hat-tip: Sven)

UPDATE: We have just received word that the DCCC is buying air-time in the district on the heels of this poll.