Tag: Polls

Insider Advantage (10/27, likely voters, 10/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (42)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (44)

Other: 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Say what you will about this race, it’s consistent. While nobody has shown an actual lead for Jim Martin, almost every poll in the last few weeks has shown him 2 points back, or thereabouts.

With such a close race, and with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently gobbling up a few points, it’s starting to look likelier and likelier that Chambliss will fall slightly shy of the 50% mark. With Lunsford a few points short and Musgrove starting to dwindle, it’s looking like the question of whether or not we break 60 seats may well turn on a December runoff election in Georgia.

Rasmussen (10/27, likely voters, 9/30 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (47)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 54 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ugly, ugly numbers. Wicker takes 12% of the black vote, and a whopping 78% of the white vote (compared to 18% for Ronnie). Musgrove can’t win unless he takes 25% of the white vote, and that goal is looking like it’s slipping away.

Another recent poll has similar news:

USA Polling Group for the Mobile Press Register/University of South Alabama (10/13-23, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 32

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

Rasmussen has been prone to putting out weirdly-gyrating polls in the past, and I’m completely unfamiliar with the USA Polling Group and its track record, but taken together, it’s hard to feel sanguine about this race.

Public Policy Polling (10/25-27, likely voters, 8/25-27):

Larry Kissell (D): 51 (39)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 46 (44)

Thomas Hill (L): n/a (4)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

This marks the first time that Kissell has been ahead in a PPP poll (and check out the ridiculously low MoE — PPP hit up over 1,500 respondents for this one). It’s really starting to look like he’ll actually pull this off, despite lackluster fundraising and poor campaign budgeting. I suppose that’s the difference that $1.8 million from the DCCC makes.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McBain by 51-46 in this district, while Hagan leads Dole by 51-42, and Perdue leads McCrory by 47-46.

There’s nothing like a scary public poll to get the internals flowing.

The Mellman Group for Jim Marshall (10/18-20, likely voters):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 48

Rick Goddard (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’d like to believe this one, but let’s not forget that Mellman is the same pollster who said that Marshall was leading by 16 points right around this time in 2006 — and Marshall barely survived that race.

A copy of the poll’s press release is available below the fold.

Research 2000 for the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel (10/16-18, likely voters):

Mike Montagano (D): 40

Mark Souder (R-inc): 45

Bill Larsen (L): 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Hot diggity dog, those are some exciting numbers, and they closely mirror a Montagano internal showing Souder ahead by 44-39.

The same poll has McCain ahead of Obama by 53-38. In an accompanying article about this poll, the News-Sentinel spun that result as bad news for Obama. But when you consider that Bush won this district by a 68-31 margin in 2004, that’s an incredibly good result.

Both the DCCC and NRCC are spending heavily to pull this one over the finish line, which is pretty remarkable for an R+16 district. This will be one of the earlier reporting districts on election night, so if Montagano can pull out a win, it’s going to be a big night. And even if he loses but comes close, that still won’t bode well for the GOP.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

UPDATE: Turns out there’s an even more recent poll of this district, by Howey/Gauge (10/23-24, likely voters):

Mike Montagano (D): 44

Mark Souder (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

That MoE is a bit wide, but Souder can’t be comfortable at all with numbers like these.

SurveyUSA (10/25-26, likely voters):

Dennis Moore (D-inc): 53

Nick Jordan (R): 42

(MoE: ±4%)

Nick Jordan was something of a dream recruit for Republicans here. A state senator, his profile and record was appealing to both the social conservative and moderate wings of the Kansas GOP, and he’s raised a respectable amount for his bid against Moore. But while Moore likely won’t enjoy the 64-34 blowout that he racked up in 2006, it doesn’t look like his hold on this R+4 seat is seriously threatened. Jordan picked the wrong year to run.

SurveyUSA (10/25-26, likely voters, 9/19-21 in parens):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)

Steve Stivers (R): 41 (42)

Don Eckhart (I): 6 (5)

Mark Noble (L): 2 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Kilroy maintains her cool, while Stivers, for the second straight poll by SUSA, loses support (he held 44% of the vote in August).

A full 37% of likely voters say that they have already voted, and of that group, Kilroy leads by 54-38. That’s an awful lot of ground for Stivers to make up on election day.

(H/T: Chad)

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/25-26, likely voters):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 49

Rick Goddard (R): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

To my knowledge, this is the first publicly-released poll of this race, and it shows Marshall in another tough fight after hanging on by the skin of his teeth in 2006. Goddard, a retired Air Force Major General, has not made a lot of noise in his first bid for public office, and the fact that neither party committee has dropped a dime on this race seemed to suggest that Marshall would have an easier time this year, so this poll comes as a mild surprise.

Is it possible that Marshall’s very public support of the Wall Street bailout package be causing him some problems right now? It would’ve been nice if Roll Call included a question about that issue in its full polling here.

Of note: SUSA pegs the black vote at 31% here, which is very close to the most recent census figures.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 56-40 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 61-39, and Gore by 58-42. More details are available here (pdf).

The Houston Chronicle has a couple of new polls out today by Zogby International (10/22-24, likely voters). Let’s have a look.

TX-07:

Michael Skelly (D): 41

John Culberson (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4.9%)

TX-22:

Nick Lampson (D-inc): 36

Pete Olson (R): 53

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The 7th CD poll seems reasonable enough — Skelly is running a strong race, but this is a very tough (R+16) district. The numbers from the Lampson race, though, seem a bit hard to believe. It’s possible that Zogby has a bad sample here (this is Zogby we’re talking about, after all), and the 22nd is one of the fastest-growing districts in the nation. A recent Benenson Strategy Group poll had Lampson and Olson tied at 42% each, an improvement over a July internal that had Lampson behind by 45-37. That’s still well below any kind of comfort threshold, so I’m having a hard time feeling good about this one.

Over in the 7th, the Skelly campaign also released a new internal poll of their own.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (10/22-23, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Michael Skelly (D): 44 (37)

John Culberson (R-inc): 49 (44)

Drew Parks: 3 (n/a)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Skelly has gained quite a bit of ground since the start of his campaign, but this one looks to be a tough nut to crack, indeed. The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (10/25-26, likely voters, 10/11-12):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (46)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)

Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

That’s some very nice movement for Merk. Check out the broader trends:

With Merkley pulling ahead in poll after poll, SSP is changing our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. Smith’s efforts to present a moderate profile have allowed him to survive in past elections, it increasingly seems like that won’t be enough this year, especially with Democratic voter registration numbers turning this state into a darker shade of blue.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 57-38 here according to the same poll.