Tag: Polls

Univ. of Washington (10/18-26, likely voters, 10/22-28/2007 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 51 (47)

Dino Rossi (Prefers GOP Party): 45 (42)

(MoE: ±4%)

Here’s another Washington governor’s race poll, this time from the University of Washington, from whom we haven’t heard anything in a year. (Obama’s up in the same sample, 55-34.) Note how consistent the trendlines are, though; more fuel for my argument that people made their minds up about this race 4 years ago. So, to recap, we have this conundrum: the national pollsters (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen) keep seeing this as a 1-2 point race, while the locals (Elway and UW) keep giving Gregoire a comfortable margin.

UPDATE: Promising tidbit: Dino Rossi must undergo deposition before Election Day, regarding the lawsuit attacking the coordinated spending between the state party and the Building Industry Association of Washington.

PPP (10/25-26, likely voters, in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (42)

Christopher Cole (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP poll of the North Carolina senate race shows Kay Hagan dropping from a 7-point lead to a 3-point lead. Considering that Hagan led by only 2 points two weeks ago, last week’s lead was probably on the optimistic side, rather than this drop being suggestive of a major trend. Still, it’s an indicator that this race can’t be taken for granted and needs to be fought to the end.

The presidential race also sees slightly tighter numbers this week, with Obama up over McCain 49-48. Governor’s race numbers will be out tomorrow.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Becky Greenwald (D): 42

Tom Latham (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

We’re still sweeping up from the avalanche of Research 2000 polls that Daily Kos released this weekend, but although this one has been out since Saturday, I’d hate to see it slip through the cracks. IA-04, one of our true longshot races languishing down in ‘Likely R’ and not getting any DCCC love beyond R2B status, looks to be a truly competitive race.

This seems to be one of those happy confluences of a motivated challenger, a coasting incumbent, a Democratic wave year, and a swingy district (D+0). In fact, the presidential results seem odd, pointing to a possible sample problem (unless there’s a lot of ticket-splitting going on) that might suggest an even better IA-04 result: McCain leads Obama 46-42 in this district. But in a D+0 district, Obama should be breaking at least 50, based on his national numbers, and probably more, since he’s overperforming in Iowa in relation to Gore and Kerry numbers.

This is shaping up to be one of the best shots that we have where the DCCC isn’t getting involved with independent expenditures (yet), and it’s a dirt cheap district. Time to strike while the iron’s hot! (Discussion is already underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary from Saturday.)

Survey USA for WCSC Live5 News (10/25-26, likely voters):

Linda Ketner (D): 45

Henry Brown (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I suspect this weekend’s Research 2000 poll showing Democrat Linda Ketner within 9 11 points in this very conservative district piqued a lot of people’s interest, but may have gotten shrugged off as too-good-to-be-true. Well, if that didn’t rouse Henry Brown from his seemingly decade-long slumber, this will: we have not just confirmation from another public pollster but an even closer result: SurveyUSA has Ketner back just 5.

The poll’s writeup states that African-Americans comprised 20% of the sample. This seems plausible, as the African-American population of the district was about 21% according to 2006 census estimate. With highly motivated AA turnout, though, we could see an even closer race.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 42

Mike McCaul (R): 46

(MoE: ±5%)

Texas is a long-term project for the Democrats, and districts like TX-10 are leading the way: it’s one of the fastest-growing districts in the country, and most of the growth is non-white. If this poll is any indication, though, we might be on the verge of seeing some good results right away.

Mike McCaul was already publicly sweating the early voting patterns in Harris and Travis Counties (this R+13 district stretches wormlike across hundreds of miles to link Houston and Austin suburbs). This poll can’t be helping him feel any better, as it’s slightly better than recent Doherty internals. Between McCaul never having faced a full-on challenge before, Doherty’s money and name recognition (he’s a former TV judge), changes in the district, and the size of the Dem wave (McCain leads only 48-41 in the district, down from Bush’s 62-38 edge), here’s one more upset waiting to happen.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters,9/23-25 in parentheses):

Charlie Brown (D): 48 (46)

Tom McClintock (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±5%)

Good grief! That blockhead Tom McClintock was supposed to be a formidable opponent for Charlie Brown in the open seat race in CA-04, to replace Abramoff-tainted retiree John Doolittle… so what happened? ‘Conservative icon’ McClintock has not only trailed by substantial margins in both public polls of this race (both from R2K), but now he’s out of cash and has stopped TV advertising. Despite the fact that this Sacramento suburbs-based district is a dark red R+11, Brown may actually succeed in kicking McClintock’s football.

Part of the problem seems to be that everyone has already heard of McClintock, and nobody seems to like him: his favorable/unfavorable rating in this sample is 44/42 (compared with Brown’s 49/29). In addition, the big blue wave seems to be sweeping in at all levels of this district: McCain leads Obama only 50-40 (compared with a 61-37 Bush edge in 2004). Perhaps most encouragingly, Brown leads early voters by a yawning gulf: 56-38.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 40

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5%)

Ordinarily, you wouldn’t expect a Democrat to be within close range in an R+10, culturally conservative district like this one. However, Frank Kratovil has a number of things going for him. One, it’s an open-ish seat, where beloved moderate incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by Club for Growth nutcase Andy Harris… and Gilchrest gave his endorsement to Kratovil. And also, this is a case (like the Staten Island/Brooklyn split in NY-13) where geography plays a big role in a provincial district: Kratovil is a state’s attorney from the Eastern Shore, where the bulk of the district’s population lives, and Harris is a state senator from Baltimore County, a part of the state that’s not too popular on the Eastern Shore.

This appears to be the first public poll of the race, but Kratovil’s internal polls have shown him steadily gaining ground, culminating in a 2-point lead in an internal from several weeks ago. Harris still has built-in advantages in this conservative district (although the same sample finds McCain leading Obama only 47-43, so this district may not be R+10 much longer), but the polls suggest this may be one of our closest races next week.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Dina Titus (D): 47

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

The numbers have bounced around quite a bit in this race in this swing district in the Las Vegas suburbs, ranging from a recent Mason-Dixon poll giving a 3-point edge to Porter to a Titus internal giving her a 9-point lead. Research 2000’s first poll of this race kind of splits the difference, finding Titus edging Porter by 2.

This is a district that has changed a lot in terms of registration numbers (moving from about even in ’06 to a 39,000 Dem edge now) and demographics, even since 2006 when Porter narrowly beat Harry Reid staffer Tessa Hafen and Titus narrowly won the district in her unsuccessful governor’s race. Also heartening are the early voting numbers: Titus is up 56-45 among early voters… and the presidential numbers, with Obama leading McCain in this D+1 district 48-44.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/21-23, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 46 (41)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (49)

(MoE: ±5%)

Here’s a nice turnaround from the last Research 2000 poll of the race in WA-08, which showed Burner down by 8 at a time when a number of other high-profile Democrats were starting to pull away (and spawned a boomlet of WA-08-related hand-wringing). Hot on the heels of the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which gave Burner a 4-point lead, comes another R2K showing a tied race, for an 8-point swing in two weeks. (We’ll apparently never find out whether this race swung late or R2K somehow missed the boat with their first poll.)

As with many races that have heated up in recent weeks, the independents are starting to move over to the Democratic column and that’s shifting the broader numbers: Burner’s now leading 46-45 among independents, up from a 51-40 lead for Reichert in the last poll. Note that this sample was midway complete when the flap over Burner’s degree first emerged, which turned into a counter-flap over Reichert’s degree by the time the sample was complete, so it provides only a partial sense of whether the dueling kerfuffles effected the numbers.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

SC-01

Linda Ketner (D): 37

Henry Brown (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

SC-02

Rob Miller (D): 35

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-10

Daniel Johnson (D): 37

Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±5%)

If a year ago… or heck, even a month ago… you’d told someone that we’d be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.

Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don’t suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn’t even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.

The only race of the three that’s within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can’t be ruled out.