Tag: Polls

Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 47

Brett Guthrie (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The last couple of polls we saw of this race didn’t give us much reason for optimism. SurveyUSA showed Guthrie pulling ahead by nine points after trailing Boswell earlier in the year, while a Boswell internal showed Guthrie erasing Boswell’s seven point lead and replacing it with a dead heat.

Both the DCCC and the NRCC are spending considerably on this R+13 open seat, but I’m gonna remain skeptical about this one, especially given all the blowback surrounding the DCCC’s ads.

SurveyUSA (10/22-23, likely voters, 10/4-5 in parens):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 54 (53)

Mike Sodrel (R): 39 (38)

Eric Schansberg (L): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Memo to Brian Wolff: Baron Hill is going to be okay. I know Sodrel gave Baron a surprise in 2004, but come on — that was 2004. No more $400K ad buys here, mmmkay?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/17-18 in parens):

Judy Baker (D): 42 (40)

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 47 (49)

Other: 8 (6)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±5%)

The open seat race in Missouri’s rural R+7 (but historically Democratic) Ninth District is one of those races that probably would have gotten written off most years, but between the size of the Democratic wave this year, a money influx, and good candidate recruitment, we’re in a credible position to pull off the upset here. Internal polls have, in fact, shown Judy Baker up by as much as 4.

Research 2000 finds that Baker is down 5, but the trendlines have improved nicely from last month. The battle here seems mostly over the independents (who make up 30% of the sample); Luetkemeyer leads 44-42 among them. At the presidential level, McCain leads Obama 54-40, a much better showing than 2004 when Bush won 59-41.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 45

Jay Love (R): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

Yesterday we highlighted a DCCC poll that had Bright up 50-43, which was encouraging to see after we’ve been seeing Bright losing steam on both the polling (his own internal had him up by only 1) and fundraising fronts.

Today, however, in their first poll of this race, Research 2000 shows a small edge for Jay Love, 47-45. Encouragingly, the sample give shows Bright picking up 14% of Republicans as well as 89% of Democrats, while Love picks up only 7% of Democrats and only 74% of Republicans. Unfortunately, the sample contains a lot more Republicans than Democrats (48% to 31%), which is also reflected in its presidential numbers (McCain leads in AL-02 by 56-39, although that’s still a big improvement from this district’s 67-33 performance in 2004).

UPDATE (James L.): Well, here’s one thing we missed about this poll, which is a huge red flag — the sample is only 17% African-American. This district is 30% black according to the most recent figures, and even Anzalone-Liszt pegs the black vote at a “conservative” (their words) 25%. If you adjust the sample accordingly, Bright would be leading.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/30-10/1 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 49 (38)

Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 43 (44)

Undecided: 7 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

You got that, folks? It’s a shame that Mark Kirk has lost all of his credibility when it comes to disputing poll numbers — recall that he kvetched like a little kid when Daily Kos showed him leading Seals by six. When SurveyUSA turned around and released a poll showing Seals leading by eight, suddenly Kirk’s press flacks were praising the virtues of the Daily Kos/R2K poll. Pathetic.

Let’s look at the movement: Kirk’s favorable rating is taking a dive, currently sitting at 41-47 (down from 45-40). Seals has increased his lead among Dems from 70-12 to 83-10, and has taken a 51-42 lead among Independents. In the previous poll, Kirk had lead among these voters by a 45-34 margin.

While it’s worth noting that a recent Dem poll for Progress Illinois showed Kirk up by six, the incumbent has been well under 50% in every poll released this month. Seals has Kirk on the ropes, and could be poised to deliver a knockout blow on election day.

InsiderAdvantage (10/23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 42 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 44 (45)

Allen Buckley (L): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Towery:

The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.

Strategic Vision (R) (10/20-22, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (47)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (4)

(MoE: ±3%)

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has some more chatter about runoff implications here. We should have a good idea of the DSCC’s endgame here by Monday or Tuesday — when final spending decisions are made by the major committees.

Minnesota Public Radio (10/21-23, likely voters):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 45

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 43

Bob Anderson (IP): 5

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Last night SurveyUSA showed Elwyn Tinklenberg zooming out of obscurity and past Michele Bachmann in the wake of her mac-carth-a moment on Hardball. Today gives us another poll (from Minnesota Public Radio) giving Tinklenberg a small edge.

This poll is also interesting because it delved into the specifics of whether or not Bachmann’s comments are driving voter decisions. Turns out, yes, they are:

Nearly four out of 10 voters in the 6th District said they were less likely to support the Congresswoman because of her comments compared to 8 percent who said they are now more supportive.

Bachmann is, in fact, suddenly less popular than even Norm Coleman, who posts a 14-point edge over Al Franken in this R+5 district.

UPDATE: According to Politico, Bachmann has now taped an apology ad that will air in the closing week of the campaign. Sounds good; just ask Tom Feeney how that worked out for him!

SurveyUSA (10/20-21, likely voters):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 47

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 44

Bob Anderson (IP): 6

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems that every cycle, one Republican hands Democrats a golden opportunity just by shooting their mouth off. In 2004, Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning turned what was supposed to be a blowout into a near-loss after a series of bizarre statements and erratic behavior. In 2006, it was macaca.  And this year, it appears to be Michele Bachmann’s Hardball meltdown.

With Democrat El Tinklenberg surging in both fundraising and now in polls, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.

Thanks for delivering those self-inflicted wounds, Kissy Monster.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 50

Jay Love (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen of this race since a Bright internal showed Jay Lovin’ closing a 10-point Bright lead into a dead heat. GOP state Senator Harri Anne Smith, who lost the GOP primary to Love in a vicious battle, endorsed Bright on Monday — so we might be seeing the effect of a Smith bump here.

Daily Kos will be releasing a poll of this district soon, so we’ll have an independent view of this race shortly.

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 9/25 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 53 (54)

John Kennedy (R): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kennedy is inching upward (and has been since August), but will it be enough? I seriously doubt it.