Tag: Polls

Two polls released earlier today contain more comfortable news for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Let’s have a look at ’em.

Rasmussen Reports (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Other: 5

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

31% is the strongest showing yet for Rubio in any of the public polls released to date, but we’re still far from the point where Crist would have to breaking a sweat.

General election numbers:

Charlie Crist (R): 48

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Other: 10

Undecided: 13

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Kendrick Meek (D): 30

Other: 8

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3%)

The headline for Rasmussen’s piece says that Crist is beating potential Dem candidate Corrine Brown, too, but that head-to-head data is nowhere to be found. Either Rasmussen is holding out on us, or perhaps they’re making a reasonable assumption. As for the other poll…

Quinnipiac (8/12-17, registered voters, 6/2-7 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 55 (54)

Marco Rubio (R): 26 (23)

Undecided: 18 (21)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Quinnipiac also tested the Democratic Senate primary, but inexplicably included Congressman Ron Klein, who passed up the race months ago, in the mix. For what it’s worth, Meek leads the pack with 18%, followed by non-candidate Klein at 12%, and Brown with 9%.

And, finally, the Governor’s race:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (38)

Bill McCollum (R): 38 (34)

Undecided: 25 (25)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Sure, I’m not crazy about the trend, but I’ll take these numbers. For one, with Dems taking a bit of a national hit lately, the fact that McCollum hasn’t put more daylight between him and Sink is comforting. But more importantly, Sink has more room to grow: she has a 23-8 favorability rating, with 68% of voters counting themselves as not having heard enough to have an opinion on her. For McCollum, his net favorables are quite good (42-13), but that also means he’s more well-known (43% don’t enough enough about him). This one’s gonna be a real dogfight.

Quinnipiac didn’t release general election Senate numbers or Obama approvals in this release — the latter of which I’m quite interested in seeing. Rasmussen’s polling finds Obama with an ugly 42-57 approval rating in the state (with 47% strongly disapproving). I’d like to see how Quinnipiac’s approval testing stacks up, at least to see just how Republican-friendly Rassmussen’s sample is compared to other pollsters.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (registered voters, 8/14-16, 4/17-19 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (42)

Bob Beauprez (R): 42 (43)

Undecided: 19 (16)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38 (39)

Ryan Frazier (R): 33 (35)

Undecided: 30 (26)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 35 (34)

Undecided: 26 (26)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Tom Jensen:

Michael Bennet’s approval rating is just as bad as it was when we polled Colorado in April but voters in the state don’t like any of his possible Republican opponents either, leaving this Senate contest pretty wide open.

38% of voters in the state disapprove of Bennet’s job performance so far with 31% approving. Those numbers are roughly equal to our previous survey which found the numbers at 41% disapproval to 34% approval. There are two primary reasons for Bennet’s net negative ratings. The first is that Republicans disapprove (62%) of him more than Democrats approve of him (57%). The second is that he’s getting unfavorable reviews from independents, 36% of whom disapprove of him compared to 29% approving. …

Potential Republican opponents Bob Beauprez, Ryan Frazier, and Ken Buck all get overall negative reviews from voters in the state as well. 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Beauprez to 30% with a positive one. For Frazier it’s 19% negative and 11% favorable and for Buck the numbers are 18% unfavorable and 17% favorable.

Though he calls the race “wide open,” Jensen also thinks Bennet would only lose to Beauprez in a 1994-style meltdown. Still, it’s depressing to even be thinking in those terms, and it’s dispiriting to see Bennet locked in at about 40% regardless of his opponent. (In case you were wondering, Frazier is an Aurora City Councilman and Buck is the Weld County District Attorney. Both jurisdictions are in the quarter-million range in terms of population.)

PPP will have more Colorado numbers over the course of the week, including GOP primary numbers for both the Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as Obama approvals.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

SurveyUSA (8/15-17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jack Conway (D): 31

Dan Mongiardo (D): 39

Lillie E. Miller Johnson: 4

Darlene Fitzgerald Price: 3

Maurice Marion Sweeney: 1

Other: 9

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen of the Senate primary since the ridiculous Fancy Farm “controversy” that gave Conway a surprisingly stretched-out period of bad press. At the very least for Conway, at least this isn’t as deep a hole to climb out of than the one he appeared to be in based on a Mongiardo internal poll from May. In that poll, Mongiardo held a 43-28 lead over Conway.

The Republican primary:

Trey Grayson (R): 37

Rand Paul (R): 26

Roger Thoney (R): 5

Bill Johnson (R): 2

Brian Oerther (R): 0

Other: 13

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.4%)

That’s one hell of a strong showing for Rand Paul — no doubt Paulbots all across the nation are short-circuiting in utter glee at how close he is at the beginning of this campaign.

And, finally, the general election numbers (registered voters):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 40

Trey Grayson (R): 46

Undecided: 16

Jack Conway (D): 37

Trey Grayson (R): 44

Undecided: 18

Jack Conway (D): 43

Rand Paul (R): 38

Undecided: 19

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43

Rand Paul (R): 41

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±2.3%)

Grayson’s lead is not surprising. Mongiardo and Conway are beating each other up with brass knuckles at this point (with the most egregious attacks coming from that jerkface Mongiardo), while the GOP primary is far less contentious. With Rand Paul performing this well, though, perhaps things may get a bit testier in the future.

Crosstabs and more details for this poll are not yet available on SUSA’s site, but we’ll update this post with more details when they become available. (UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.)

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

• CO-Sen: Did someone feed Bob Beauprez after midnight? Because more and more Republican Senate contenders seem to be hatching in Colorado lately. The newest potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who served under GOP Gov. Bill Owens in his second term, is “seriously considering” challenging newbie Democrat Michael Bennet, and will “make a decision in 30 days”.

• CT-04: Republicans may have been dealt a huge blow to their chances of knocking off frosh Democrat Jim Himes when state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided to stay put, but it looks like they’ve rebounded somewhat with the recruitment of state Sen. Dan Debicella. Debicella will be facing primary competition, though, as former state Sen. Bob Russo of Bridgeport also threw his hat into the ring yesterday. Russo doesn’t have a ton of elected experience under his belt, though; he won a special election in early 2008, but was swamped out of his Senate seat by the Obama tide last November after only 10 months in office. Russo seems to be striking a Shays-like tone in his early remarks, while Debicella sounds more like a meat-and-potatoes conservative.

• FL-Gov: The Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll yesterday showing Republican Bill McCollum leading Dem CFO Alex Sink by a 43-34 margin. No word on which outfit actually conducted the poll, but it wouldn’t be too far out of line with the most recent public polls we’ve seen out of the Sunshine state.

• KS-03: After dispatching highly-touted GOP state Sen. Nick Jordan last year without breaking much of a sweat (dude clearly picked the wrong cycle to run), Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore may face another legitimate opponent in 2010. Terry Goodman, a city councilor from Overland Park (a populous Kansas City suburb), says he’s “taking a look” at a congressional run.

• NE-02: It looks like GOP Rep. Lee Terry may want to spend less time casting lines for Obama-Terry voters and start keeping an eye on his right flank. Terry is facing a primary challenge from businessman and self-described Reagan Republican Matt Sakalosky, much to the discomfort of Douglas County Republicans. Sakalosky, angry at Lee Terry’s TARP vote last fall, has no elected experience, but insists that he’s well-versed for the job because he “watches television news and reads political biographies”. (Don’t laugh; the fact that he actually reads books probably puts him a peg above a few of the ass-scratching mouth-breathers filling out the ranks in the Boehner caucus.)

• NJ-Gov: If Jon Corzine is going to be re-elected, he won’t be doing so with the help of the Sierra Club. The environmental org endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett yesterday, himself a one-time environmental protection commissioner under former GOP governor Tom Kean.

• NV-Sen, NV-Lt. Gov: Nevada’s GOP Lt. Governor, Brian Krolicki, facing a felony indictment over the mishandling of state funds, has announced that he’ll seek re-election next year. Krolicki, as you may recall, formed an exploratory committee for a race against Harry Reid not long before he was slapped with the indictment. He must be hoping for a dynamite year for the GOP if he thinks he can pull a Don Young.

• NY-Gov: Are we preparing for life after David Paterson already? GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio is looking a few chess moves ahead by picking a fight with state AG Andrew Cuomo over his office not following through with an investigation into the hiring of state Pedro G. Espada (son of crumb-bum Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.) for a well-paid job with the state Senate Democrats. Cuomo, who raised the issue of the dubious hire before anyone else, ended the investigation after Pedro G. resigned last week.

• PA-06: It looks like newspaperman Doug “Captain” Pike has effectively sealed the Democratic nomination for the open seat race to replace Jim Gerlach; the 800 pound gorilla in the district, state Sen. Andy Dinniman, announced yesterday that he’s deciding to keep his powder dry, citing the uncertainties of redistricting as his key reason. ’08 Dem nominee Bob Roggio also pulled the plug on a do-over last Friday.

• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton denies that he has a mental problem.

• VA-05: Everyone expects freshly-minted Dem Rep. Tom Perriello to face a tough re-election campaign next year, but we’re still waiting to figure out who the GOP plans to nominate. A couple of new candidates stepped up to the plate this weekend: high school biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton and real estate investor Laurence Verga both say that they’ll join “FairTax advocate” Bradley S. Rees in the Republican primary. GOP bigwigs are likely holding out hope for a candidate with more obvious firepower, such as state Sen. Robert Hurt or Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, who says that he’s “still considering it very seriously”.

• WI-Gov, WI-01, WI-03: Democratic Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton is officially in the race to replace Jim Doyle, and congressman Ron Kind is also weighing the race heavily. Kind says that he will make a decision “in the weeks to come”. Open seat watchers will be aware that Kind is currently being challenged by Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke, whose track record of winning over Dem-leaning voters would put this D+3 seat at serious risk should it come open. And in case you were wondering, 1st District GOP Rep. Paul Ryan pre-empted any speculation that he may run by putting out a statement denying his interest.

• 2010: It’s pretty early, but some prognosticators are already making predictions for next year’s mid-terms:

“There’s offense and there’s defense. Right now, you’re going to be spending time on defense,” said Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Intensity matters a lot. Last time you [Democrats] had it, this time they [Republicans] have it,” Mr. Cook said, adding that he expects about a 20-seat loss in the 2010 mid-term elections.

Poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did not agree with Mr. Cook. He expects Democrats to do even worse.

Mr. Silver said Democrats often told him his Obama-friendly polls comforted them last fall. “I don’t think you should feel at all comforted about 2010,” he said to a standing-room-only crowd. He said he expects Democrats will lose from 20 to 50 House seats and up to six Senate seats next year.

What’s your take?

Rasmussen Reports (8/11, likely voters):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Mark Kirk (R): 41

Other: 4

Undecided: 17

Cheryle Jackson (D): 30

Mark Kirk (R): 47

Other: 6

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Both Kirk and Giannoulias post reasonably good, but probably inflated, favorability ratings: Kirk’s at 55-28 while Giannoulias has a comparable 51-33 rating. Somehow I doubt that either of these dudes are that well-known statewide, but this inflated name rec issue seems to be par for the course at Rasmussen’s shop.

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight recently had a very good post about the likely voter models currently employed by many pollsters, and the aggressively selective model used by Rasmussen in particular. In short, Nate views Rasmussen’s model as close to a worst-case scenario for Democrats. However, I think we may need to prepare for the possibility that the worst — or something in its realm — could come to fruition next year.

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Sen

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (8/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Creigh Deeds (D): 39

Bob McDonnell (R): 54

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±_._)

The MoE is blank because the WaPo didn’t specify how many out of their 1,002 registered voters qualify for their likely voter screen. It would hardly seem to matter, though – the Washington Post (via a company called TNS) is now the fifth pollster to peg Deeds well behind after his post-primary bounce. The WaPo hasn’t tested before, but the other four outfits (R2K, PP, SUSA and Rasmussuen) have all shown sharp declines in the trendlines. I’ll just let the picture do the talking:

It looks like this isn’t shaping up to be our year. And this tidbit from SSPer DCCyclone (whose activism is commendable) doesn’t inspire me, either:

Deeds has been invisible in NoVA all this time. I’ve been door-knocking for Del. Margi Vanderhye’s reelection with Deeds piggybacking on it, and beyond such piggybacking there’s been no sign of Deeds doing anything. I was in the coordinated campaign office in Tysons on Saturday to pick up my walk list, and the Vanderhye field director was the only human being present in the entire huge, cavernous offices. The Deeds cubicles were dark and abandoned. I hope they were all out door-knocking! But they certainly aren’t soliciting volunteers to help!

Sadly, this reminds me all too well of Sean Quinn’s regular dispatches about dark or nearly empty McCain HQs around the nation last year. Sigh.

(Hat-tip: Kyle)

UPDATE: DCCyclone chimes in again in the comments with some more thoughts.

Research 2000 (8/10-12, likely voters, 5/4-6 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (56)

Joe Sestak (D): 33 (11)

Undecided: 19 (33)

(MoE: ±5%)

Sestak still has a lot of work ahead of him in convincing Democratic primary voters to reject an incumbent they generally like (R2K finds Specter’s approval among Dem voters to be a pretty sturdy 74-21 compared to Sestak’s 51-8), but he’s made some pretty significant progress already. (Rasmussen’s primary poll, released on Wednesday, pegged the race at an even-narrower 47-34 for Specter.)

General election nums:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (55)

Pat Toomey (R): 40 (31)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s clearly getting a bit hairier for Democrats everywhere lately, but these numbers are a far cry from Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 48

Other: 4

Joe Sestak (D): 35

Pat Toomey (R): 43

Other: 5

(MoE: ±3%)

For what it’s worth, I find the R2K numbers a bit easier to believe, but in any case, this election isn’t shaping up to be the cakewalk that it appeared to be in April. With a protracted Democratic nomination battle in place until the spring and the national environment getting sunnier for the GOP, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely D to Lean D. Pat Toomey is still a seriously flawed nominee with a lot of weaknesses to exploit, but the Democratic nominee (and the DSCC) will have to work harder than expected to keep him down.

Public Policy Polling (8/4-10, registered voters, 7/10-12 in parens, March in parens for Marshall trend lines):

Cal Cunninghan (D): 28 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (40)

Kenneth Lewis (D): 27 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (42)

Elaine Marshall (D): 31 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)

Kevin Foy (D): 27

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Burr has got to be pleased that he’s expanding his lead against all comers, and even against the highly-vaunted candidacy of Generic Democrat, whom Burr now leads by 42-35, a distinct improvement from 40-38 last month. However, Burr still doesn’t have much to brag about, as his approval rating is a marginal 38-32, with a big 30% slice of electorate being “not sure”. Possible newcomer Kevin Foy, the mayor of Chapel Hill, isn’t bringing any noticeable strength to the table in his first appearance in PPP’s polling.

Tom Jensen gives his two cents:

Burr’s situation is pretty simple. If things continue to move in a Republican direction all the way to November 2010 none of the Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. But if the economy turns around and Barack Obama gets the credit for it, resulting in another Democratic year, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. As a relatively anonymous Senator his fate is more than likely going to be determined by which way the wind is blowing. Unless it turns out to be a year where disgusted voters just turn out incumbents of both parties at a much higher rate than usual.

I find it hard to disagree.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/9-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jerry Brown (D): 29

Gavin Newson (D): 20

Meg Whitman (R): 24

Tom Campbell (R): 19

Steve Poizner (R): 9

Meg Whitman (R): 27

Tom Campbell (R): 21

(MoE: ±5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 42

Meg Whitman (R): 36

Jerry Brown (D): 43

Tom Campbell (R): 35

Jerry Brown (D): 43

Steve Poizner (R): 34

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Meg Whitman (R): 37

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Tom Campbell (R): 35

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Steve Poizner (R): 35

(MoE: ±4%)

Carly Fiorina (R): 29

Chuck DeVore (R): 17

(MoE: ±5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52

Carly Fiorina (R): 31

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 53

Chuck DeVore (R): 29

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 takes a very thorough look at the big two races in California next year, checking out pretty much every possible permutation left. Although we’ve seen some rather alarming polls for Democrats in the last few weeks, Democrats seem to be holding their own in California, with ex-Gov. and current AG Jerry Brown holding an appreciable edge in the Governor’s race (up 6 on the likeliest GOP opponent, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) and Sen. Barbara Boxer with 20-point leads on her competition.

San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom doesn’t fare as well in head-to-heads — Whitman edges him out by 1, while he beats the other GOPers by 1 — and that’s reflected in his favorables. He’s the only one of the five gubernatorial candidates who’s in negative favorability territory, at 40/42 (Brown, by comparison, is at 48/37). While the primaries have been polled extensively, the only previous poll that has looked at the general election in CA-Gov is a Lake Research poll from March that had both Brown and Newsom beating their GOP rivals by margins well outside the MoE, so it seems like some erosion has happened on the governor’s side (especially with Newson). With Whitman’s endless millions that she’s signaled her willingness to spend, this has the potential to get closer as the race goes on.

On the flipside, R2K’s numbers give a much wider spread on the Boxer/Fiorina matchup than the recent Rasmussen poll; R2K’s numbers on this race are pretty close to what the Field Poll found in March.

Finally, the poll also asks about the fate of a same-sex marriage initiative that may be on the ballot in 2010. The initiative would narrowly lose, 48-47, but that’s indicative of some progress, as the same sample voted 51-45 in favor of Proposition 8 (and thus against same-sex marriage) last year, so there’s been some improvement just in the last half a year.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen | CA-Gov

SurveyUSA (8/10-11, likely voters):

John Garamendi (D): 26

David Harmer (R): 18

Mark DeSaulnier (D): 15

Joan Buchanan (D): 12

Anthony Woods (D): 5

Chris Bunch (R): 4

David Peterson (R): 4

Mark Loos (R): 2

Other: 4

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.3%)

This looks to be the first public poll of the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, though the Garamendi campaign recently released an internal (.pdf) that only sampled Democrats and decline-to-state voters. The results of that poll line up fairly well to SUSA’s findings — but only for the Democratic candidates, of course. Garamendi’s poll, from Tulchin Research, pegged the Lt. Governor at 31, with DeSaulnier and Buchanan duking it out for second place at 21 and 17 points, respectively.

Interestingly, when asked, the Garamendi camp told us that they decided not to poll GOP voters in order to save money, and that they felt that no one candidate on the Democratic side would be a particularly strong draw of Republican votes. The DeSaulnier campaign objected, saying that the partial glimpse Garamendi’s poll offered put the legitimacy of the results into question, but SUSA’s crosstabs suggest that Garamendi, in fact, had the most to gain from including Republicans in his sample (other than the GOP candidates, of course); SUSA finds that 14% of Republican voters choose Garamendi, compared to 3% each for Buchanan and DeSaulnier. At this point, a Garamendi-Harmer run-off seems to be the smart bet.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-10