Tag: Polls

The Bean Walker, Iowa’s copycat version of The Drudge Report, was thrilled to link to the latest approval numbers from Survey USA yesterday:

Iowa

Pres. Obama: 45 / 51

Sen. Grassley: 54 / 34

Sen. Harkin: 49 / 38

Gov. Culver: 36 / 51

This statewide poll of 600 adults was conducted on August 26 and 27 and is said to have a margin of error of 4 percent. It’s the first time any pollster has found the president below 50 percent approval in Iowa, and the first time any pollster has found the governor’s approval in the 30s. For more details about various demographic groups in this poll, you can find Culver’s chart here, charts on Harkin and Grassley here, and Obama’s chart here.

Looking at Survey USA’s trendlines for Culver since he took office, I noticed that Culver’s disapproval number is basically unchanged this summer, but his approval number has dropped significantly from 42 percent in June and 44 percent in July to 36 percent in late August.

Before anyone panics, note that Survey USA’s approval numbers for Culver tend to run low compared to other pollsters. In early July, the poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog found Culver’s approve/disapprove numbers to be 53 percent/41 percent. Later the same month, Hill Research Consultants’ poll for the Iowa First Foundation found Culver’s favorability at 52 percent. (The Iowa First Foundation did not release the governor’s approval number from that poll, but you better believe they would have if the number had been in the 30s or even the low 40s.) Meanwhile, Survey USA pegged Culver’s approval at 44 percent on July 20.

Survey USA’s numbers for Obama, Harkin and Grassley are also noticeably down in the latest poll. Obama is at a record low in Iowa. Grassley’s approval of 54 percent is the lowest Survey USA has found in at least four years. I couldn’t find a similar graph for Harkin’s numbers, but it’s been a very long time since I can remember seeing his approval rating below 50.

Of course, it’s possible that the recession and the health care debate have affected Iowans’ view of all political leaders. Still, I would like to see these numbers confirmed by some other pollster. Even with the best sampling techniques, approximately 1 in 20 polls is wrong just by chance.

I also agree with Steve Singiser that if Culver were this unpopular in Iowa, Democrat Curt Hanson would not have won yesterday’s special election in Iowa House district 90 (a swing district). The Republicans ran at least two television ads linking Hanson to Culver (see here and here).

I’m looking forward to the next Selzer and Associates poll for the Des Moines Register, which probably will come later this month or in early October.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 noticed this:

The sample composition:

D-28

R-34

NP-35

Obviously, if considering registered adults, the D/R fractions should be reversed. However, back in July, they used:

D-38

R-24

NP-34

so the Dem fraction was too high back then. Conclusion? Perhaps the July survey was a bit too favorable, and perhaps this one a bit too unfavorable.

In an off-year election, turnout among no-party voters is likely to be lower. Even with a demoralized Democratic base, I’d be surprised if Iowa’s electorate next year was comprised of 28 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans. Right now Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 100,000 over Republicans.

Quinnipiac (8/25-30, likely voters, 8/5-9 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 37 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (46)

Chris Daggett (I): 9 (7)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (8/24-30, registered voters, 6/22-29 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson did not include Chris Daggett in their poll, but 1% of respondents volunteered his name. In any event, after seeing Christie suffering a prolonged stretch of bad press followed by a pair of polls showing Corzine inching back, these polls have to be considered as something of a disappointment for Corzine fans.

• CO-Sen: That was fast… two days after saying he was probably going to drop out of the Colorado Senate race, now Weld County DA Ken Buck is likely to stay in the race. Apparently there has been enough conservative discontent over the seeming annointment by the NRSC and state party of former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton as the nominee that Buck may feel he can ride that backlash to primary victory. (Norton may well be conservative herself, but she’s such a blank slate that there’s no way to tell, and at any rate, conservative activists aren’t taking kindly to DC meddling this year, as we’ve seen in the Missouri and New Hampshire races.)

• FL-Sen: Too cute by half? Charlie Crist’s appointment of his ex-Chief of Staff, George LeMieux, to the Senate is getting panned by many of the major newspaper editorial boards in the state. (J)

• IA-Sen: Big Bruce Braley boffo boomlet busts! The sophomore Representative confirmed that, despite a sudden flurry of speculation, he’ll stay where he is, and not run against Chuck Grassley for the Senate. Former state legislators Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen are already in the race.

• IL-Sen: Here’s another Senate race where the GOP rabble is getting restive about one candidate getting the establishment stamp of approval. There are eight other candidates besides Mark Kirk, and religious right ultra-conservatives are trying to coalesce behind one, with Hinsdale real estate developer Patrick Hughes seeming to get the most mention. The most notable name in the anti-Kirk camp? Phyllis Schlafly of the Eagle Forum, who’s 85 and still going strong. The article does mention that there have been several other Senate primaries in Illinois where a conservative upstart beat the establishment moderate, most notably Al Salvi’s upset of Bob Kustra in the open seat race of 1996.

• KY-Sen: You better believe it’s on. Rand Paul’s backers are gearing up for another Moneybomb!, this time cleverly scheduled for the same day (Sep. 23) as Trey Grayson’s big DC fundraiser where he’ll be feted by 23 Republican Senators.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter seems like he has an endless supply of horse’s heads to put in the beds of potential GOP primary opponents. This time, former Lt. General and Katrina recovery hero Russel Honore backed down within a few days of his rumored interest appearing, much the same as with Suzanne Terrell and John Cooksey.

• MA-Sen: There was a brief flurry of speculation that Vicki Kennedy, Ted Kennedy’s widow, would be the placeholder short-term appointee to his seat (assuming Massachusetts Dems followed through on changing state law regarding appointment), pushed along by Sens. Dodd and Hatch. However, it now appears she’s not interested in the interim appointment (or running in the special). Meanwhile, the many contenders among the Massachusetts House delegation are watching what ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy II does; Ed Markey and Michael Capuano, for instance, both sound eager to run in the special election but will defer to a member of the Kennedy family.

• NV-Sen: There’s the old expression about not picking fights with people who buy ink by the barrel, but Harry Reid and the Las Vegas Review-Journal are getting into a little pissing match. Reid told the LVRJ that “I hope you go out of business.” The LVRJ’s publisher shot back, calling him a “bully” and decrying his “creepy tactic.” (I expect a Reid press release saying something about rubber and glue is forthcoming.)

• AL-Gov: The specific details seem few and far between, but Ben Smith leaks some tidbits about an AL-Gov poll commissioned by the Alabama Education Association (the state’s teacher’s union, naturally a pro-Democratic organization). It’s good news for Rep. Artur Davis, who leads all GOPers in the race, ranging from ex-judge Roy Moore by 6 to Treasurer Kay Ivey by 12. Davis also leads Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks by 30 in the Dem primary, and has a 3-to-1 favorable ratio.

• NJ-Gov: The Jon Corzine camp is out with a hard-hitting new TV spot, nailing Chris Christie over his undisclosed loan to carpool buddy Michele Brown. Also, unsurprisingly but critical to his survival, Corzine got the SEIU‘s endorsement last Friday.

• PA-Gov: Scranton mayor Chris Doherty has been casting a wide net as he looks for a step up, considering the Lt. Gov. spot and a PA-11 primary challenge against Paul Kanjorski, but now he may be considering the big enchilada: a run for Governor. With the two Dem frontrunners both anti-abortion Pittsburgh-area Dems (Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner), there’s may be an opening for someone pro-choice from the East (which is something ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel is also considering).

• VA-Gov: Republican AG Bob McDonnell’s attempts to position himself as a moderate in the Virginia Governor’s race hit a big snag this weekend, as the Washington Post took a look at the master’s thesis he wrote while a 34-year old graduate student at Pat Robertson’s Regent University. McDonnell railed against feminists, working mothers, contraceptive use by married couples, cohabitators, homosexuals, and fornicators. McDonnell protests rather weakly that his views have “changed” since he wrote the thesis.

• CA-10: SurveyUSA is out with their final poll of the special election to replace Ellen Tauscher, and finds little movement in the past two weeks. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) leads with 25%, followed by Republican David Harmer with 20%. The other two major Dems in the race, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, are at 16% and 12%, respectively. (J)

• MO-04: Retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond seems displeased that national Republicans are trying to knock off veteran Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton next year. In an interview during a recent Cardinals game, Bond said that “it’s very very important for us to have a man like Ike Skelton” in Congress. (J)

• Data: The Office of the House Clerk has released its biennial summary of the 2008 presidential & congressional elections (PDF). The document contains official results for every federal race in the nation, all in one place. (D)

• KY-Sen: Here’s a surprise; Mitch McConnell says he still won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary, despite the presence of only one establishment candidate anymore (SoS Trey Grayson). Is he worried about drawing the wrath of the nationwide army of malfunctioning Paulbots? Anyway, even though he won’t endorse, he and 22 other GOP Senators are still planning to host a $500/person fundraiser in DC for Grayson in September.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter dodged rumored challenges from Suzanne Terrell, Tony Perkins, and John Cooksey, but his luck may yet run out. Retired Lt. General Russel Honore, who has a high profile from his role in leading forces tasked with rescuing Katrina victims, says he’s leaning toward running in the GOP primary. Honore, a Creole African-American who lives near Baton Rouge, says he’s been a Republican since the Reagan era. A tough primary might be just what we need to soften up Vitter before loosing Charlie Melancon on him.

• MA-Sen: The Massachusetts Secretary of State says that Gov. Deval Patrick has two choices as to the timing of the special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat: A Dec. 8 primary and a Jan. 19 general, or a Dec. 15 primary and a Jan. 26 general. (D)

• NV-Sen: If this is meaningful, and not just cloud talk — that Harry Reid is going on record as saying health care reform must contain a public option, which moves us that much closer since (as best as I can tell) he’s the person with primary responsibility for how to merge the (good) HELP and (probably crappy) Finance Committee bills into one — we may have Danny Tarkanian and Susan Lowden to thank for passage of a public option. Facing suddenly perilous re-election prospects in the polls, Reid may be realizing that he’s going to need strong on-the-ground union support to stay in office in 2010, and that he’s not getting anything but tepid support from them without a decent reform package.

• AR-Gov: There was a second phase to PPP’s Arkansas poll that showed Blanche Lincoln looking weak for re-election, with some details about the 2010 gubernatorial race. If there’s one governor in the country who doesn’t have much to worry about it, it’s Democrat Mike Beebe, who has 63/17 approvals and beats prospective GOP challenger state Rep. Allen Kerr 55-24.

• AZ-Gov: Arizona’s Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, still getting her feet wet in the gube office, says that she’s “leaning toward” running for a full term in 2010. Despite having a rough time with the state legislator with her proposed tax increases, Brewer says that she “loves being governor, and I love campaigning”. (J)

• GA-Gov: Rep. Nathan Deal doesn’t seem to be getting much traction in the Georgia Governor’s race, but now there are some nasty allegations out that may further dim whatever luster he once had. Apparently he intervened with Georgia state officials, lobbying them to preserve an obscure state program on inspection of rebuilt salvaged vehicles. Deal owns co-owns a salvage company that provides the location for these inspections, a company from which he personally earns up to $150,000 a year. Deal personally lobbied the state Revenue Commissioner against opening the program up to competitors instead of preserving his monopoly.

• SC-Gov: State lawmakers are apparently getting ready to hold a special session of the legislature to impeach and remove Gov. Mark Sanford. Meanwhile, an Insider Advantage poll says 50% of South Carolinians think Sanford should resign. (D)

• IA-05, IA-Gov: Rep. Steve King has ruled out a run for Governor and will run for re-election to the House again. While having been mentioned as a possible candidate earlier in the year, shortly after gay marriage was legalized in Iowa, he hadn’t shown much interest lately. Looks like it’s Terry Branstad (who’s still making up his mind) or bust for the Iowa GOP.

• IL-14: Rotta the Huttlet Ethan Hastert won’t have the GOP primary to himself in his attempt to revenge the Hutt Hastert family name. Mark Vargas, a former Dept. of Defense official in Iraq, former Kane County Young Republicans chair, and briefly, an aide in the elder Hastert’s district office, said he’ll run too.

• MT-AL: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Rep. Denny Rehberg, who is listed in stable condition after being injured in a boating accident on Flathead Lake at some point between 10 pm and midnight last night.

• NC-08: Republicans finally have a candidate to challenge freshman Democrat Larry Kissell this year, but it’s not anyone with a track record of electoral success. Retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, who won 38% of the vote in an unsuccessful state House campaign last year, announced yesterday that he’ll seek the GOP nomination to challenge Kissell just a week after ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory passed on the race. Republicans seem to hope that Huddleston, who is African-American, will chip some support away from Kissell in the district’s sizable black community. Good luck with that. (J)

• ND-AL: A Republican has stepped forward to take on entrenched Blue Dog Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota. Paul Schaffner currently is an insurance salesperson and has no electoral experience, but may have some residual name rec from his stints as football player at NDSU and assistant coach at local Jamestown College and Univ. of Mary.

• NYC-Mayor: SurveyUSA has a new poll of the Democratic primaries in New York City, which closely match the Quinnipiac findings earlier this week. For the Dem nod in the mayoral race, Comptroller William Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella, 48-13. Ex-Public Advocate and former mayoral candidate Mark Green has a big lead at 38% in the Public Advocate primary.  City councilor Melinda Katz leads the Comptroller field at 27%.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps (8/25-26, likely voters, 8/11-12 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (35)

Chris Christie (R): 43 (40)

Chris Daggett (I): 7 (10)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen Reports (8/25, likely voters, 8/4 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 50 (52)

Other: 2 (4)

Undecided: 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen still refuses to include Chris Daggett as an option in their poll, which seriously puts into question the utility of these results. However, the trend confirms GQR’s findings — Corzine has stopped the bleeding, and Christie appears to have peaked:

Certainly, the Corzine campaign has enjoyed quite a run over the past couple of weeks, successfully smacking Christie over his collusion with Rove while still a U.S. Attorney, and making some well-placed hits on his curious friendship (and the loans that came with it) with former aide Michele Brown. Yesterday’s news that Christie was caught speeding with an unregistered and uninsured car (with Brown along for the ride as a passenger, no less) back in 2005 have ensured that the bruising isn’t over yet.

While SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, Team Corzine is doing the right things to have a good shot at pushing this one back into Tossup turf.

• FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: “Kendrick was a gentleman and I’m a lady back to him,” because he didn’t lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, “despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on.” Next time, we’ll just have to egg harder. (D)

Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist‘s mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week’s end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.

• OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he’s from one of the state’s brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he’d be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he’d been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden’s foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.

• NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn’t want to be a distraction for the campaign.

• NY-Gov: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT’s speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he’s not saying no, he isn’t fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.

• SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn’t step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he’s staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he’d drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.

• TX-Gov: It looks like there’ll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he’ll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she’s serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.

• WI-Gov: There’s already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor’s race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).

• NYC-Mayor: The mayor’s race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month’s 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.

• Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don’t seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor… and print ads against 2 Dems who also were ‘no’ votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (8/21-24, registered voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Curtis Coleman (R): 41

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Tom Cotton (R): 39

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Ugly. Horrendously ugly. Any incumbent who’s failing to crack a higher mark than 40% against three C-grade GOP opponents with single-digit name ID is pretty far from being in a comfortable position for re-election. Her approvals, too, are underwater at 36-44.

While I’m sure that the NRSC will make an effort to get a better nominee in place than gaffe-prone crackpots like businessman Curtis Coleman or Kim Hendren, this poll suggests that the GOP could make a race of it even with a less than top-tier challenger.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

Politico:

Former GOP congressman Bob Beauprez announced tonight that he will not be running against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo).

“Having been presented with the potential to serve in the United States Senate, Claudia and I considered it very carefully. However after significant reflection, I will not be a candidate for the Senate in 2010,” Beauprez said in a statement.

A recent PPP poll had Beauprez beating Bennet by three points, but his favorability numbers were way underwater (30-40) — evidence of a lingering hangover that voters are having with the Beauprez brand after an embarrassing gubernatorial campaign in 2006. But it’s also evidence that Bennet will have to campaign hard (a new concept for him) even if the GOP selects a ham sandwich as its nominee.

ColoradoPols takes the news as a good sign that former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (who served for a term under Bill Owens) is in. Norton’s husband said last week that she’ll make a decision on the race “in 30 days“.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is getting yet another challenger, except this time it’s a Democrat: Bob Johnson (no, not that Bob Johnson… he’s the Arkansas Senate President, and former Arkansas House Speaker). Surely the netroots will rejoice that conservadem Lincoln, known for her foot-dragging on EFCA, is getting a primary challenge. Um, except there’s the small fact that Johnson would be running against Lincoln from the right. (Johnson held a fundraiser for Republican state Senator Gilbert Baker last fall, who may well be the Republican Senate nominee.)

• FL-Sen: One more fossil got unearthed by Charlie Crist as he seeks applications for potential Senate replacements for Mel Martinez: former Representative Lou Frey, a 75-year-old who served in the House from the Orlando area from 1968 to 1978. Crist is still planning to interview current Rep. Bill Young, as well as former Reps. Clay Shaw and Mike Bilirakis. Follow the link to see all 10 current possible replacements.

• IL-Sen: With the Democratic Senate field suddenly down to two candidates, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and local Urban League president Cheryle Jackson, there’s still some of the inevitable casting-about for someone else going on. An unnamed “top Dem” is reportedly encouraging Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart to make the race. Dart is a former state legislator who made big news recently for suspending foreclosure evictions.

• MO-Sen: Michael Steele just referred to Roy Blunt as crap. Well, not in the most literal sense. There was an extended toilet metaphor on a conservative radio talk show and Steele went along with the host’s anti-Blunt anti-insider arguments. Still, the Carnahan ads write themselves.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand got yet another endorsement from her House colleagues, from freshman Rep. Eric Massa. Siena is also out with a new New York poll. Gillibrand trails the unlikely-to-run ex-Gov. George Pataki in a hypothetical head-to-head, 42-39 while whomping the only slightly-less-likely-to-run Rep. Peter King, 46-24. (They didn’t poll the Dem primary, where Jonathan Tasini is Gillibrand’s last challenger standing.)

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s campaign strategy seems to be to duck debates and let her money do her talking for her instead. Here’s another eyebrow-raising development, that’s potentially a good line of attack for Dems (or her primary challengers): Whitman didn’t register to vote in California til 2002 (or as a Republican until 2007), and has missed voting in more than half the elections since then, including the 2003 recall.

• MA-Gov: Rasmussen looks at the Massachusetts Governor’s race, and finds I-turned-R Christy Mihos leading incumbent Dem Deval Patrick 40-35, up from a 41-40 lead in June. Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker 40-39. The utility of this poll is close to zero, though, seeing as how it leaves out likely D-turned-I candidate Tim Cahill, whom polls have found either absorbing enough anti-Patrick votes to let Patrick squeak through, or else winning outright.

• NY-Gov: There’s a certain role about holes, shovels, and not digging that David Paterson seems to be forgetting. He lashed out at critics saying he should stand down for re-election, accusing them of racial bias, and even launched into the media for their coverage (which I don’t think has ever ended well for a politician). The aforementioned Siena poll finds Paterson losing the Dem primary to Andrew Cuomo 65-23, and the general to Rudy Giuliani 56-33 (although he does beat Rick Lazio, 38-37). Cuomo beats Giuliani 53-40, and beats Lazio by a hilarious 66-16 (OK, that’s not as hilarious as the GOP primary, where Giuliani beats Lazio 73-6, with 8 for Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins).

• SC-Gov: Cue up the “frequent flier” jokes. Turns out Mark Sanford, already known for his little jaunt to Argentina and his overeager use of state planes, has also failed to disclose at least 35 flights on private planes that should have been listed on ethics forms or campaign disclosures as ‘things of value.’

• IN-09: Could we really see Hill/Sodrel 5.0? American politics’ most repetitive rivalry may well continue on into 2010, as GOP ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel says he’ll weigh another bid against Rep. Baron Hill in the 9th as soon as he’s done with the book that he’s coloring writing.

• MI-13, 14: Detroiters are feeling surly about their Representatives, it seems. A poll by Deno Noor Polling finds both Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and John Conyers with negative re-elect numbers: 27/58 for Kilpatrick and 40/44 for Conyers. Not a surprise for Kilpatrick, whose son got bounced out as Detroit’s mayor and who barely survived a primary herself last year, but it’s a new development for Conyers, the second-longest-serving House member; assumedly, this has a lot to do with the conviction of his wife, ex-city councilor Monica Conyers, on bribery charges.

• OR-04: I’d be sad too if I was watching my once-promising House bid crash and burn more than a year out from the election. Republican Springfield mayor Sid Leiken teared up repeatedly during a news conference where he finally announced that he didn’t have documentation for the $2,000 in cash that somehow found its way from his campaign to his mother. He’ll repay the $2,000 out of pocket, he says, but the Sec. of State investigation continues.

• PA-07: Here’s a good photo op for Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz, running to succeed Rep. Joe Sestak. He’s appearing at the White House to discuss energy policy with Obama administration officials and other energy policy leaders.

• VA-05: Conventional wisdom seems to be coalescing around state Sen. Robert Hurt as GOP nominee; one GOP operative says he’s “60% leaning toward the race.” His state Senate district overlaps about one-quarter of the 5th. State Del. Rob Bell, who was frequently mentioned earlier, seems hard-pressed to win his off-year re-election this year and turn around and take on Rep. Tom Perriello. Two other state Senators sound interested, Frank Ruff and Steve Newman, but sound likely to defer to Hurt if he gets in.

• Seattle Mayor: Primary elections in Seattle were last week, and in typical Washington fashion, ballots from the all-mail-in election are still being counted. In a serious surprise, two-term mayor Greg Nickels won’t be coming back, as he finished third in the top-two nonpartisan primary at 25%. No worries, as he’ll be replaced by someone just as, if not more so, liberal, although someone who’s never held elective office before: the top 2 are local Sierra Club president Mike McGinn (at 28%) and T-Mobile VP and big-time Obama bundler Joe Mallahan (at 27%).

Meanwhile, the King Co. Executive race is down to two. It’s the first time it’s been an officially nonpartisan position (after a GOP-led initiative to change it to nonpartisan passed, as this is the only way a Republican will ever get elected), but everyone still knows that former news anchor Susan Hutchison (who got 37%) is the Republican and county councilor Dow Constantine (who got 22%) is the Democrat. That looks daunting at first, but there were no other major Republicans and three other top-tier Dems in the race (county councilor Larry Phillips, state Sen. Fred Jarrett, and state Rep. Ross Hunter). The four Dems put together got 56%, so, no, King County isn’t going to elect a Republican in November.

• Polltopia: Where should PPP poll next: New Jersey or Virginia? You decide. (Tom Jensen says they’d planned to do New Jersey but skipped it to do Arkansas this week, where he hints at some blood-curdling numbers.)

Our inboxes over at SSP World Headquarters are just about filled to the tipping point with new polls that have landed on our desks over the past few days. Let’s go through ’em.

• CO-Gov (8/14-16): Public Policy Polling takes another look at the Colorado gubernatorial race, and finds Bill Ritter gasping for air. Ex-GOP Rep. Scott McInnis beats Ritter 46-38, and Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry forces a 40-40 split race. Altogether, not much has changed since April. In the GOP primary, McInnis leads Penry by a 36-15 margin.

• CO-Sen (8/14-16): PPP also took a glance at the Republican Senate primary, and found potential candidate Bob Beauprez leading Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier 41-23, with Weld Co. DA Ken Buck straggling along at 15%. Not tested was former state Sen. Tom Weins, who has indicated his interest in the race.

• FL-Gov (8/4-5): Public Opinion Strategies is on the loose for the first time in Florida, polling for the pro-Republican Florida Justice Reform Institute. Testing the gubernatorial race, POS says that Bill McCollum is ahead by 48-37 over Democrat Alex Sink. While most pollsters agree that McCollum has the edge, this is his friendliest margin by several points.

• GA-Gov (8/18): State Insurance Commish John Oxendine still has a healthy lead in Rasmussen’s latest Georgia poll over his rabid pack of GOP rivals, with 31% to 13% each for Rep. Nathan Deal and SoS Karen Handel. That’s only a very slight dip for Oxendine since last time, but perhaps new evidence of crum-bummery may stall any momentum for Deal.

In the Democratic primary, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes leads state AG Thurbert Baker by a whopping 42-9 margin; state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter is in third with 7%. Rasmussen has consistently shown Baker with a dramatically lower level of support than we’ve seen from other pollsters. (A Strategic Vision poll from a month ago had Barnes up over Baker by only 46-31.) Someone’s way off.

• IA-Gov (7/23-26): The Iowa First Foundation, a pro-GOP 527, paid an undisclosed pollster to test the re-election strength of Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. Culver leads every GOP challenger tested by fairly wide margins (though he’s still under 50%)… except for ex-Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who crushes Culver by 53-34. Republicans seem to feel pretty good about their chances of luring Branstad into the race.

• IL-Sen (“early August”): Supposedly, the Alexi Giannoulias campaign will release an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showing their boy leading Republican Mark Kirk by a margin “outside the margin of error of 3%”.

• MA-Gov (7/31-8/3): And speaking of incumbents with a lot to worry about, Gov. Deval Patrick looks to be facing a pretty treacherous path to re-election if you believe a recent survey by Opinion Dynamics (R). State Treasurer Tim Cahill, a Democrat-turned-independent, leads Patrick by 27-25, with former Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker, a Republican, close behind at 23%. With Christy Mihos as the GOP candidate, the race sits at 29% Cahill, 27% Patrick, and 21% for Mihos.

• NV-Gov (8/17-18): Mason-Dixon gins up a number of permutations for the Nevada gubernatorial race. First, the primaries: for the Democrats, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman leads Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley by 34-25, with Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid (son of Harry) lagging behind at a pitiful 13%. In a two-way race against Buckley, Reid trails by 43-22. Regardless of whether or not Goodman runs (and if he does, it seems more likely that he’ll do so as an independent than as a Democrat), this is good news for Democrats, as Reid is by far the weakest candidate of the batch — and I don’t think it’ll be beneficial for pappy for the Reid name to be so over-exposed in 2010.

Against Gibbons, all three Democrats are on top; Goodman romps by 56-29, Buckley by 50-34, and Reid by 47-35. However, the chances of Gibbons being re-nominated are pretty slim. Ex-state AG Brian Sandoval, who recently resigned from the federal bench and is expected to run in the GOP primary, has an early 33-17 lead over Gibbons. With Sandoval at the top of the ticket, Republican fortunes get a big boost; he leads Goodman by 45-38, Buckley by 44-36, and Reid by 49-32.

• NV-Sen (8/17-18): In Nevada’s Senate race, Mason-Dixon finds that Harry Reid should be sweating buckets. Though his best challenger, Rep. Dean Heller, has already ruled out a run (Mase-Dix says he would’ve beaten Reid by 50-40), his lesser-known GOP opponents also give him a pounding. Frequent loser Danny Tarkanian (son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian) beats Reid by 49-38, and NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden leads by 45-40, pretty much right in line with a pair of recent internal polls released by the camps of Lowden and Tarkanian. Not good.