Tag: Kirsten Gillibrand

• FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

• KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

• PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

• RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

• Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

• NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

Marist (2/25-26, registered voters, 1/27 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 26

Andrew Cuomo (D): 62

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 78

Rick Lazio (R): 17

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 38 (46)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (47)

David Paterson (D-inc): 47

Rick Lazio (R): 35

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39

Andrew Cuomo (D): 71

Rick Lazio (R): 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Peter King (R): 32

George Pataki (R): 56

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 49 (49)

Peter King (R): 28 (24)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (44)

George Pataki (R): 41 (42)

(MoE: ±3%)

Whew! That’s a lot of data for one poll. And none of it is good for Gov. David Paterson, who can’t muster even half the support of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary matchup… and if he miraculously makes it through the primary, he’s poised to get creamed by Rudy Giuliani, of all people.

There’s also the wee matters of his approval rating (26% ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ which is lower than George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, or Eliot Spitzer ever managed), disapproval over his handling of the budget (30/59, down from 42/41 in January, suggesting that most of his continued plunge is about the budget and not about senate seat blowback), and terrible ‘wrong track’ numbers for the state of New York (27/65). The only thing he has to be thankful about: that he’s not ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, the one man in the state who’s even less popular.

On the Senate front, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still in something of a holding pattern as her constituents get to know her. She’s getting only 18% ‘excellent’ or ‘good ratings, compared with 32% ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ but 50% of the sample just says ‘don’t know.’ She fares well against Rep. Peter King, but ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t really expressed interest in the race, although John Cornyn has been privately buttering him up) makes the race competitive. Her toughest task may still be defending her left flank in the primary, although unlike Quinnipiac‘s February poll, which had Gillibrand down 34-24 to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Marist gives Gillibrand the narrow edge. (Discussion is underway in andgarden‘s aptly titled diary.)

Quinnipiac (2/10-15, registered voters):

David Paterson (D-inc): 23

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 24

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 34

(MoE: ±4.6%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 43

Rudy Giuliani (R): 43

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51

Rudy Giuliani (R): 37

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42

Peter King (R): 26

(MoE: ±3%)

In the political chess game, David Paterson may have felt he was thinking ten moves ahead by picking Kirsten Gillibrand to fill the vacant Senate seat, by picking a young, charismatic woman with monster fundraising capacities who may well be holding the seat 40 years from now. However, it’s starting to look like, in doing so, he wasn’t thinking two moves ahead… as Quinnipiac now shows both Paterson and Gillibrand highly vulnerable in the 2010 primary. Picking Andrew Cuomo to fill the Senate seat would have killed two birds with one stone in the short-term for Paterson (get a Senator who’s known statewide and ready to stand on his own, and give his electoral archrival something to do other than challenge him in the 2010 election). Instead, he gambled on long-term dividends, and it’s possible neither he nor Gillibrand will be around to enjoy them.

The Gillibrand/McCarthy numbers seem likely to evolve over time, as 39% remain undecided. And both candidates seem largely unknown outside their respective corners of the state; Gillibrand’s favorables are 24/9 with 65% “haven’t heard enough,” (and 81% “haven’t heard enough” in the NYC Suburbs) while McCarthy’s are also 24/9, with 66% “haven’t heard enough” (with 88% “haven’t heard enough” upstate). An uncontroversial two years for Gillibrand, combined with tacking left on guns and immigration issues, should bring her numbers up (although revelations like the one today that she keeps two guns under her bed can’t be helping matters). Gillibrand has little trouble disposing of Rep. Peter King in the general (there’s no polling of an all-LI slugfest between King and McCarthy).

Paterson, however, trails Cuomo by a 2-1 margin, and, unlike Gillibrand, everyone knows who he is. His favorables are a fairly grim 41/35, while Cuomo clocks in at 63/15. Cuomo also dominates a hypothetical matchup against Rudy Giuliani while Paterson only ties him. Much of this does, in fact, seem to be blowback from the senator selection process. Paterson gets a mark of 35/52 for approval/disapproval of how he handled the process, down from 44/42 from last month. We may be looking at a truly epic miscalculation from Paterson here, one for the history books.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, New York’s 20th Congressional District is not as “blood red” and “heavily conservative” as most people would assume. Barack Obama narrowly defeated John McCain within the seat’s boundaries, winning solid margins in Columbia, Dutchess, and Essex Counties, as well as narrowly carrying Otsego, Saratoga, Warren, and Washington Counties.

	Obama (D)	McCain (R)
Columbia	17,556 (55.6%)	13,337 (42.4%)
Delaware	9,462 (46.4%)	10,524 (51.6%)
Dutchess	71,060 (53.7%)	59,628 (45.1%)
Essex	10,030 (55.9%)	7,913 (42.6%)
Greene	9,850 (44.1%)	12,059 (54.0%)
Otsego	13,570 (52.0%)	12,026 (46.0%)
Rensselaer	39,753 (53.7%)	32,840 (32.8%)
Saratoga	56,645 (50.9%)	52,855 (47.5%)
Warren	16,281 (50.5%)	15,429 (47.9%)
Washington	12,741 (49.5%)	12,533 (48.7%)

The district still contains a fairly hefty GOP registration advantage, with 196,118 (43%) of its voting populace enrolled as Republicans and only 125,486 (26%) enrolled as Democrats, with the remaining balance unaffiliated or in third parties. But even here the GOP edge is gradually eroding; when the 20th was first drawn in 2002, there were 195,525 Republicans (45%) and 104,028 (22%) Democrats, a net gain of 21,458 Democrats and 593 Republicans over the past seven years. Folks, Democratic growth in voter enrollment is outpacing the Republicans by a ratio of 36 to 1 within the 20th District! Demographically, this is not the same district  that John Sweeney or Gerald B.H. Solomon once represented.

Looking at the statistics, why on earth should we want to forfeit a Democratic-trending swing district to the likes of right-wing Republicans like John Faso, Betty Little, or Steve Saland, who stand to vote against much of the agenda that many of the district’s voters backed so passionately only two months ago?

WPIX is claiming that multiple sources tell them that David Paterson will announce tomorrow that Kirsten Gillibrand will be appointed as the new Senator from New York, to fill the vacancy left by Hillary Clinton. This comes after yesterday’s announcement that Caroline Kennedy was withdrawing from consideration.

As one source noted, “in politics you never know,” but based on the information they have heard and shared with PIX News Governor Paterson intends to name Kirsten Gillibrand as New York’s next Senator at a noon news conference tomorrow in Albany.

So, if this actually happens (just watch it be Cuomo instead!), here are several thoughts:

* This leaves a big gaping hole to be filled by special election in NY-20, an R+3 district that has been bluening but has historical GOP advantage and not much of a Democratic bench at the legislative or county level. This could be a difficult retention in a special election.

* This potentially sets up two Democratic primaries in 2010 for the statewide races: Andrew Cuomo vs. Paterson in the governor’s race (seeing as Cuomo has the time to do so), and Gillibrand defending her seat. (Also rumored today was that Carolyn McCarthy from NY-04 threatened to challenge Gillibrand in a primary in 2010.)

* Some progressives won’t be happy to see this seat filled by a Blue Dog caucus member, and the least liberal member of the New York House delegation… although it seems likely she’ll move to the left once in office to match her new larger and more liberal constituency.

UPDATE (James): As the lead organizer of DavidNYC’s transition team, I feel it necessary to inform the public and members of the media that Mr. NYC is keeping all of his options open on the possibility of running in the 2010 and 2012 Senate primaries.

At first glance, of the three House Democratic freshmen from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand might seem like a compelling target for Republicans.  Her district, New York’s 20th, delivered its votes to Bush by an 8-point margin in 2004, and by 7 points in 2000.  And, with an advantage of over 80,000 voters in 2006, the 20th district has one of the most favorable voter registration balances for Republicans in New York.  However, as we’ve all seen for over 20 years (the last six especially), the definition of “Republican” has changed, and many of this district’s voters are in the midst of a fundamental identity change.

Politicians like Kirsten are at the forefront of this shift, and she has already made all the right moves to put herself in the strongest possible position for her first re-election campaign after defeating the scandal-plagued John Sweeney last November.  Aside from raising a very impressive $668,000 in the first quarter of 2007, she’s also been very successful in making headlines for all the right reasons: namely, an incredibly energetic delivery of services to her constituents.  Just take this remarkable letter to the editor in the Albany Times-Union, written by a former Sweeney aide.  Allow me to reproduce it in full, because it really captures the essence of the 20th’s new Democratic (big-d and small-d) representation:

As a former aide to John Sweeney while he was in the Pataki administration, I must say what a tremendous job Kirsten Gillibrand is doing. She is the most accessible politician in the region. Every weekend, she is somewhere in the 20th Congressional District, letting us know exactly where she stands on issues and why, which is a refreshing change. I’m sure we all have stories about experiences we have had dealing with Rep. Gillibrand, but I feel compelled to tell you about mine.

Last month, Rep. Gillibrand asked me to serve on her Veterans Advisory Committee. Being a veteran and still involved in politics, I decided to accept her invitation to a meeting at the State Military Museum in Saratoga Springs.

I figured I would see the usual political maneuver in which the politician walks through the room, shakes a couple of hands, gets a picture with a leading area vet, says how hard she is fighting for us in Washington and then is whisked out of the room, all in a matter of minutes.

What happened could not have been further from this. Rep. Gillibrand went to the podium, disconnected the microphone, walked to the vet seated nearest her, gave him the microphone, sat down, opened a notebook, got out a pen and asked, “What do you want me to do as your representative in Congress?” I have to tell you, I was astonished.

Rep. Gillibrand sat there for 2 1/2 hours, listening as we passed the microphone from person to person. She asked questions, gave opinions and answers, and took down personal contact information if she did not have an answer, promising to call us back.

Our district could not have asked for a better person to serve us. If she keeps this up, she will be our representative for life.

GREG MIHALKO

Stephentown

Yep, public service like that sure beats Sweeney’s frat boy antics of years past.

Race Tracker: NY-20