The California State Assembly hasn’t been very competitive for years now, but just because I like to contribute to the site, I’m going to discuss what very little out there that is competitive.
(image courtesy Wikipedia)
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This open seat being vacated by term limited Republican Roger Niello includes communities just north of Sacramento, including Citrus Heights. The voter registration is very tight here, with Democrats holding a very narrow edge of less than percentage point. Republicans nominated Andy Pugno, author of Proposition 8. The Democratic candidate, Dr. Richard Pan has the backing of Assembly Speaker John Perez. With such a tight registration edge, the Democrat has a good chance here. I still rate it Lean Republican, though, just for the environment.
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Alyson Huber prevailed by just 474 in 2008 and was declared the winner after her Republican opponent had gone to the capitol for orientation. This year, she’s facing her 2008 rival, San Joaquin County Supervisor Jack Sieglock once again. The district has a very narrow Democratic edge and includes suburbs of Sacramento, Lodi and part of Stockton in San Joaquin County and the whole of Amador County. Huber benefited from coattails last time around and even then the race was close, so this is one of the ones to watch. I rate it a Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic because incumbents in the Assembly don’t get defeated much (the last time was 10 years ago), but in a year that isn’t great for incumbents, it could happen. It depends on all much attention is paid to the race.
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This seat was one Democrats had targeted over a few cycles and failed to win. Joan Buchanan won it in 2008 with 52% again San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan faces her 2008 again this time as well. This district includes areas of Contra Costa County that lean Republican, as well as portions of Sacramento, Alameda and San Joaquin Counties. Buchanan did run for the US House not long into her tenure, so that might be liability for her. Toss Up/Tilt Democratic, just because of the incumbency thing and the Assembly.
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Includes portions Stanislaus and San Joaquin Counties. Democrats hold a registration edge in this district that is held by Republican Bill Berryhill. Berryhill narrowly defeated Democrat John Eisenhut in 2008. This year’s Democratic nominee, Tim Weintz Sr., doesn’t seem to have a website, so it’s not clear what sort of candidate he is. Likely Republican.
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This central valley seat was the only legislative gain for Republicans in 2008. Former Assemblywoman Nicole Parra backed Republican Danny Gilmore over Democrat Fran Florez (mother of State Senator Dean Florez, who Parra has feuded with). Gilmore opted for only one term. Fran Florez is running again and defeated Parra’s father, Pete for the Democratic nomination and will face Republican David Valadao. Florez likely will win this time, but because of the climate, I’m rating it Lean Democratic.
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This seat contains the whole of San Luis Obispo County, plus Santa Maria and Lompoc in Santa Barbara County. SLO County leans Republican, while Santa Maria and Lompoc are more evenly split. Hilda Zacarias, Santa Maria’s mayor, is getting good backing from the establishment, but it’s climb for her in this district. She face SLO County supervisor Katcho Achadjian. Likely Republican.
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In this open seat race for the seat of term limited Assemblyman Pedro Nava, a very heavily contested primary between Nava’s wife, Susan Jordan and Santa Barbara councilman Das Williams. Williams prevailed in the primary, but came out with less cash on hand than his Republican opponent, former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker (who lost a Congressional race in 2000 against Rep. Lois Capps). There is a decent Democratic registration edge here and the district includes areas, like Santa Barbara, that vote strongly Democratic, so Williams has the edge, but it’s still worth watching since Stoker has a big money edge. Lean Democratic.
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This was one Assembly races in 2008 that was fairly close. Linda K. Jones received 48% of the vote to Steve Knight’s 51% in this Lancaster/Palmdale district. This is an area that has trended into swing territory over time and Democrats are more competitive here. Jones is running again, what’s not presence this time is the coattails of a Presidential race. The seat has a narrow Republican edge, which has been lowered do in part to many minorities moving into the Antelope Valley. This one I rate Likely Republican, simply for the fact that Democratic turnout will be lower than in 2008 and that same incumbency factor I mentioned earlier.
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Ferial Masry is on her fourth run for Assembly and came closest to winning in 2008 in this Thousand Oaks centered district. Her numbers then were do in part to coattails (Obama won Thousand Oaks and performed well in Simi Valley) and the fact that her opponent, Audra Strickland isn’t all that liked by some people. This year, Strickland is termed out and Masry is facing Jeff Gorell, who ran against Strickland in the GOP primary in 2004 and is the only Republican running for Assembly to get a union endorsement. Masry could poll well again, but it’s a climb. Likely Republican.
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This is an open seat, in Orange County that includes Costa Mesa and portions of Garden Grove. The Republican advantage in registration is clear, but Democrats have found a strong candidate in Phu Nguyen. The GOP candidate, Costa Mesa mayor, Allan Mansoor is very nasty to say the least, he said that he entered politics because there were too many taco trucks on that streets. The large Vietnamese population in the district could carry Nguyen to victory, as well as a good percentage of the Hispanic vote. I rate this one Lean Republican just because of the registration in the district and the environment, but Nguyen still has a good chance.
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In another Orange County seat, which includes Irvine and Laguna Beach, Democrat Melissa Fox is making a legitimate effort. This district has a lot of Democratic voters even though the registration edge favors Republicans. Fox faces community college trustee Don Wagner in the general. I rate this one Likely Republican only because of the environment, but I’m not counting Fox out at all.
State Senate
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This is the only state Senate race this year that is remotely competitive. The Democratic registration edge is decent in this district that includes portions of Monterey and Stanislaus counties, but for the past 8 years, the seat has been held by a Republican. Now that the seat is open, Democratic Assemblywoman Anna Caballero is running for the seat against Republican Ceres Mayor Anthony Cannella. Both parties are making an effort here and it could go either way, especially in this year. Toss-Up.
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This district is located in Orange County, holding Santa Ana and portions of Anaheim. In 2004, Democrat Lou Correa very narrowly defeated Republican Lynn Daucher to take this seat. Since then, the seat has seen a big jump in Democratic voter registration. The GOP’s candidate this year is Anaheim City Councilwoman, Lucille Kring, but she doesn’t seem to be that strong of a candidate since her website only has a logo with her picture and a P.O. Box number underneath with no other information or links on the site, which is not smart for any campaign. Correa is a moderate Democrat, who is liked by both sides, so he’s the favorite here. Likely Democratic.